OT – What caused MLB to set a record for Home Runs in a Month?

Submitted by MGoGrendel on

I’ve been watching MLB a lot over the last week and saw there were a record 1,101 home runs hit in one month – June 2017.  That surpasses the former record of 1,069 set in May 2000.  For reference, May 2000 was two seasons after McGwire/Sosa battled for the season home run record and one season before Bonds broke that record.  Read: right in the heart of the steroids era.

MLB has been greatly stepped up their PED testing and is touting their success.  Two players this year were caught and each given 80 game suspensions.  Their message is ‘the age of steroids is over’.

And yet, we are seeing home runs hit at a record pace.  Why?  Here are some random thoughts from MLB personalities (former ball players) over the last week:

1. Pitchers are not pitching inside

  • They cited the LA Dodgers with the most pitches thrown inside and one of the lowest rates of home runs allowed.
  • Houston is on the opposite end of the equation with most home runs allowed and fewest pitches thrown inside.

2. More emphasis on power hitting over speed on the base path

  • There were a record 36 leadoff home runs in June; 5 more than the next highest set in May 2016.  More teams are putting power in the leadoff spot.
  • More hitters are increasing their “launch angle” to get the ball in the air. 
  • Statcast (powered by aws) is showing us more 450+ ft home runs and exit velocities over 115 mph.  Just last night, a pitcher(!) from Colorado hit his first home run – a 460 ft shot.
  • Everyone is swinging for the fences – even the little middle infields (like in Houston).  There were a record 28 days in a row where someone had a multi home run game, snapped on June 27 (and restarted the next day).

3. The ball is wound tighter

  • They cited that pitchers are getting more blisters as the try to grip the low (tight) seams.
  • The tighter seams create less drag – less break in a breaking ball and farther travel on a hit ball.
  • Do the hitters know the ball is wound tighter and they are swinging harder?

Could MLB want more home runs during a time where PED testing is high so we can forget about the steroids era?  Or, is it just about making the game fun for the fans?

stephenrjking

July 6th, 2017 at 2:08 PM ^

PEDs are still a thing in baseball, just like in all other high-dollar sports in which there is a benefit. The recent spike in homers over the past couple of years seems to indicate other factors are also involved (I believed PEDs were still common before the spike occurred, and I've yet to see anyone provide evidence that PED usage blew up within one season), but let's not pretend that drug testers have somehow managed to get ahead of the sophisticated doping regimens that are available to athletes who can afford them.

I'm not an expert in other areas, but I'm inclined to believe that the tremendous increase in the use of shifts over a time period only slightly longer than this recent spike in home runs has had an impact (EDIT: not the only impact, the 538 article preceding my post is reasonably persuasive). As others in this thread have said, guys are more willing to accept Ks if the contact is higher quality, and shifts have made hitting balls in play a lower percentage technique. It would be interesting to see if there is a difference in home run rates between guys vulnerable to shifts and guys who hit to all fields.

Erik_in_Dayton

July 6th, 2017 at 2:06 PM ^

Players know that home runs equal big paychecks.  They focus on power at the expense of contact because it makes financial sense.  No one is trying to be the next Tony Gwynn or Ichiro. 

stephenrjking

July 6th, 2017 at 2:35 PM ^

By the way, in response to this last suggestion in the OP:

Could MLB want more home runs during a time where PED testing is high so we can forget about the steroids era? Or, is it just about making the game fun for the fans?

The damage done to the sport of baseball by the steroid era is irreparable. Baseball allowed its most precious records to be shattered by players that are known PED abusers; there is simply no putting the cat back into the bag now.

When I grew up, the records of baseball were precious, hallowed. Breaking (or even approaching) one was a big deal. My dad wasn't the world's biggest baseball fan, but I heard about 61 and Babe Ruth and Hank Aaron and the records.

Then McGwire and Sosa broke the Maris record in the same year, and we thought it was a big deal. Then Bonds broke the record again (did he hit 71? 72? I don't even remember anymore) and broke Aaron's record and everybody knew he was using to do it.

It's a joke. Those numbers, and the history behind them, have lost significant amounts of meaning. And for baseball, a sport with more history than any other in the world, that is a horrible tragedy. It is something I hold Bud Selig responsible for, and should be a permanent stain on his record as commissioner. It is something baseball can never have back.

ca_prophet

July 6th, 2017 at 4:51 PM ^

I found no less excitement in watching Bonds dominate pitching like no one else had ever done due to the rumors about his drug use. Not to mention that Aaron was also a PED abuser (self-admitted). MLB amphetamine abuse was common enough that every clubhouse had a pretzel bowl filled with greenies and usually a second pot of coffee laced with amphetamines (leaded versus unleaded had a different meaning then). Highly-capable, insanely-motivated overachievers will always look for any advantage they can get, and moral qualms are few and far between. Aaron himself has said that if they had designer steroids in his day, he would have been far from the only one taking them. If you ain't cheatin' ... I make no attempt to defend these players against the cheating argument - it was both illegal, and post-2002, explicitly against the rules of the game. (I just don't particularly care.) I do take issue with the notion that baseball has hallowed records set by noble and saintly players, because it simply does not. Cy Young scuffed the ball. Babe Ruth would have been blackballed if anyone had known of his drop of African-American blood, but benefited materially from that. Whitey Ford had his wedding ring modified to allow him to cut the ball to get it to break better. And so on ...

stephenrjking

July 6th, 2017 at 7:24 PM ^

Nobody, certainly not me, considers the old records valuable because they were set by moral saints. And nobody thinks there hasn't been questionable behavior in the past, nor is Baseball a paragon of moral virtue in all respects.

The issue with the steroid era in baseball isn't that the older players are somehow considered more virtuous (though Aaron, whose biography was a powerful experience for me to read as a boy, holds great esteem from me). It's that the numbers themselves have been devalued by a wholesale corruption of the dynamics of the sport in that era.

It's simple, really: The refusal of baseball to even attempt to limit PED use in that era led to abuse that dwarfs the effect of other listed "performance adjustments," and they forced many players to use substances simply to remain competitive. As a result, the numbers produced in that era simply don't have the significance that the numbers produced in other eras. When everyone is hitting 60 home runs, it's not a number with significance anymore. 

Yeah, there have been variations in other eras as well (1968, for example), but none so dramatic or significant. Other sports statistics change in value over time (Troy Aikman never threw for 4000 yards in a season, and now any average hack QB can do so), but baseball has the unique privilege to be a "timeless" sport that despite changes in athleticism and equipment can compare players directly from 50 years apart.

Or rather, it could. But for 10-15 years MLB was a different sport. The numbers are out of balance. And meaning has been lost. Dads don't tell their children about the Maris-Mantle home run chase because that number has been bested; they don't tell their children about the McGwire-Sosa chase because they were both juiced out of their minds and everybody knows it. 

Baseball has lost a sacred part of its history. I'm still a fan, still hope (money allowing) to take my kids to Comerica Park on an upcoming vacation, still check the Tigers score every evening. But parts of that history are devalued forever.

ca_prophet

July 7th, 2017 at 7:00 PM ^

because it has never, ever been true.  Baseball's hagiographical marketing has pushed that view in order to broaden the appeal of their game, but any look at the numbers will reveal that for the falsehood that it is.

Before I begin, I too admire Aaron for what he had to overcome, in chasing a revered record set by a white man playing for the most storied franchise in baseball (in fact, perhaps in any team sport; I'm not familiar enough with soccer history to pursue that claim), while playing in the Deep South, while the tumult of the Civil Rights Era exacerbated racial tensions.  (Did you know that Aaron was the last full-time MLB player to play in the Negro Leagues first?)  He was an amazing player and far more gracious a man than I think I would be in his place. The first game I went to was his last year in the league, so I got to see him (as a shell of himself, alas) against the Pirates as a kid.

"[...] baseball has the unique privilege to be a "timeless" sport that despite changes in athleticism and equipment can compare players directly from 50 years apart."

Um, no.  There is no comparison between players from different eras in baseball; the conditions of competition are simply too different.

To list but a few issues, Ruth played 154 game seasons against 2/3rds the players, with no African-American or foreign-born players to speak of.  Bob Gibson was the fastest pitcher in baseball during his era; today every team has someone who can pitch faster than his best.  MLB wasn't a truly international sport until sometime in the late 80's, when foreign players started coming over in clumps.  When Ruth played, it was stasticially likely that someone elsewhere in the world was a better baseball player than he was(!), but these days the very best players in the world gravitate to the US.

That's before we discuss changes to the gloves (have you seen one of the gloves that Ruth used?), ball (the making of baseballs is oddly fascinating for something that in theory hasn't changed that much), bats (ash vs. maple bats alone make a measurable difference), or fielding (not only have fielders been getting steadly better, but the practice of shifting has made a large difference in the efficiency of fielders), and stadium layouts.

That's the conditions of competition.  The competitors themselves?  They have benefitted from the vastly increased knowledge about human bodies and athletic biology (of which, yes, steroids plays a part), nutrition, weight training, and how to remain both flexible and strong.  This knowledge was always out there, but today's athlete gets it from day one, and has it reinforced by every coach/trainer he meets, as opposed to having to do it for himself.  When Kareem Abdul-Jabbar took up yoga, he was seen as a freak who was frittering away precious practice time he could be using for weights or running.  Yet that helped him to play for much much longer than any seven-footer ever had before.  Nowadays every team incorporates that kind of training, indeed even tailoring it to the individual.  And if they get hurt, like Dizzy Dean breaking a toe, or Smoky Joe Wood hurting his leg?  They get medical care and aren't allowed to compound the injury, as both of them did, resulting in shoulder tears which forced them from the game.  And if they did tear up their shoulder?  Today surgery can fix that, if not at 100%, at a rate much better than zero.

Now, this doesn't make as much difference at the top - the top 0.01% are still approaching the physical limits of the human body.  The big difference?  If Bob Gibson was transplanted from his peak into today's game, he'd be a lot more humdrum than we liked to think, simply because instead of being Wally Pipp, the average player he'd face is a lot more like Gehrig.

TL,DR:  Baseball comparisons between eras are an illusion deliberately fostered by MLB to market the game.

In Part II, I'll talk about steroids and why baseball is portraying them as evil.

ca_prophet

July 7th, 2017 at 7:23 PM ^

The answer lies in the same place it usually does: money.

Going back to 1997, the owners had recently been spanked in court for colluding to hold down the price of free agents.  Baseball had hit its first ever work stoppage, which had made a big dent in baseball fandom and was widely seen as the fault of ownership (coming on the heels of the blatant collusion issues).  Free agency was growing salaries extremely rapidly, to the point that owners who didn't want to pay market rates were pushing the comissioner to Do Something to hold those uppity players back from making so much money.

And a reporter asks Mark McGuire about the andro in his locker.

At the time, andro was available over the counter.  It wasn't illegal or controlled in the US, and was certainly not on baseball's list of prohibited substances.  But it was a steroid precurser.

As McGuire chased down Ruth and Maris, and was chased by Sosa in turn, crowds flocked to the park.  Baseball regained the attendance it had lost with labor disputes and then some.  Ownership got behind and pushed, knowing a good thing when they saw one.  And while today "[Parents] don't tell their children about the McGwire-Sosa chase because they were both juiced out of their minds and everybody knows it.", that wasn't true then - baseball seemingly got a whole new generation of fans thanks to the Long Ball.

Now cast your eyes to the negotiating table.  The feds have just raided a drug lab in California, and it seems likely that some of baseball's biggest stars are connected to it.  Ownership knows baseball has a PED issue - they've known for a while now, and the "anonymous" survey testing they conducted confirmed it.  Armed with this information, pressured by ownership to hold costs down, and with a need for leverage over the player's union, what does ownership do?  They leak the survey test results (all but confirmed in the final legal proceedings against Bonds and Clemens), and begin a campaign to paint steroids as a uniquely damaging substance that's entirely the player's fault, deliberately ignoring (and in Selig's case, actively denying) the role ownership may have played.

This was, as best science can tell, a lie.  While steroids are more effective muscle builders than other PEDs, they are not more effective for hitters than pitchers (Carroll and others), they are not more effective for stars than scrubs (quite the opposite), and their effect for most MLB players is of the same magnitude as other legal advantages (e.g. harder bats, contacts to turn 20/25 into 20/15, adjustments to weight and flexibility training, biomechanical analysis of your pitching motiion, etc.).  In short, while steroids likely do provide an advantage, it is not unique, can be duplicated, and doesn't create a qualitative difference the game.  It simply isn't "a wholesale corruption of the dynamics of the sport in that era." no matter what the league's marketing tells you.

For comparison, look at Bob Beamon's long jump.  He increased the old record by 20%(!) based largely on two factors (perfect timing on his takeoff and the first ever Olympics at 7000 feet).  That's a wholesale change in the dynamics of a sport.  It took 30 years before anyone could match that.  By comparion, McGuire and Sosa pushed the boundaries by ~10% - in 5% more games.

TL,DR:  The perception of modern PEDs as a uniquely corrupting influence on baseball is based largely on ownership's wildly successful pushing of that position to help break the player's union.  It is not in any way based on science or historical analysis, only on perception.

BucksSuck

July 6th, 2017 at 3:07 PM ^

I was just recently at the Louisville Bat Museum and Factory and the tour guide said that they are making more bats out of maple due to the shortage of ash wood.  They felt this is why there are more home runs.  Long story short, there are more home runs this year because of the Emerald Ash Borer!

The People's Jones

July 6th, 2017 at 3:13 PM ^

It could be the seams. They were lowered by MLB last year; balls flying out of the park ever since.

Also with new analytics guys are paying attention and making adjustments on launch angles. Not many players swinging for base hits either.

Dylan

July 6th, 2017 at 3:17 PM ^

Interesting. I always thought the pitchers were complaining with something new in the core / filler of the baseball - which may still be true on the down low. But I do know that college switched to flat-seam a couple years ago. I know the new MLB ball isn't "flat" in that regard -- but you have to think it messes with the grips pitchers use after years of practice. Hmm.

ThatGuyCeci

July 6th, 2017 at 5:16 PM ^

I think another possibility that no one has mentioned is the emphasis on pitchers who throw mid to upper nineties.  It is so common in this day and age to see pitchers throw 95+... the harder the throw the faster the exit velocity of the ball, which would also contribute to more homers...

Mr. Yost

July 6th, 2017 at 10:09 PM ^

Thanks.....Trump?

 

 

 

 

Please folks, it's a harmless joke based on the "Thanks, Obama" meme. It in no way is spreading politics on this thread any more than saying "Global Warming" which we know is joke as well. The fact that I have to leave this disclaimer...is dumb. Thanks, Brian.

South TX MFan

July 6th, 2017 at 8:25 PM ^

Houston does not give up the most home runs. They give up the 9th fewest home runs. It would be a even better if Keuchel and McCullers hadn't gone to the DL.

That brings up a point. Those two are two of the best at inducing ground balls. A lot of pitchers now don't do that. More balls hit in the air will lead to more home runs.

youn2948

July 7th, 2017 at 4:08 PM ^

Global Warming

Chinese Balls

 

New strain of PED that isn't detectable yet.

All young good pitchers switching to football hoping they can be coached by Harbaugh at Michigan.