OT: The Great Resignation

My real job is busy, hired one new worker and a part timer so pretty much fully staffed. But I’d like to talk about my side hustle. Started this about 9 years ago. Work a few nights during the week and a few weekend spots. Pay was low but it was fun and your coworkers are varied and cool. Basically it shut down during the first 11 months of Covid except for a skeleton crew with seniority. Then this last fall it started up again with plenty of seasoned veterans choosing to sit out for awhile or just give it up. Short staffed ...not enough new hires ... this is a big operation missing hundreds. So holiday season rolls around and our fine bosses gave each of us about 166% bonus of our weekly wage!! This is for more than 600 employees!! Thanks Warde and Jim!!

2-3 million early retirements

1 million deaths.

Child care shortage.

...on the heels of a labor force that has had decreasing labor force participation rates for 20+ years.

Ghosting... hey company owner/hiring manager... Do you send every interview candidate not selected notice?

Age discrimination - rampant. We can't get people... but we won't hire anyone over 40.

I left my job of 20 years in June of 2020 for a new one of nothing.  (I retired)  It was  2 (ish) years ahead of schedule for me (I hadn't pinpointed an exact retirement date at that point) My job was with the public and my boss was unclear on how/if he was going to protect me (masks weren't mandated in my state at that point) and being an older individual with a couple of "pre-existing conditions" I decided it wasn't worth it.  I know a lot of people like me who decided to retire a few years earlier than planned, and it might be part of the answer to "where have all the people gone?"   We left a lot of job openings.  There are other factors too, I'm sure.

Interesting thread.  I'm self-employed and have been for 20+ years, so no resignation(s) are in my immediate future.  On the hiring side, we've been lucky to not have to do much, though wages are up 20-30% in the last two years.  Talking to my colleagues who have been trying to hire, the general consensus is good luck finding someone, you're going to need it.  

I am 64 working in a Gov Tech type job.  I need 14 months to fully snag a great health care retirement plan.  Management has gotten so poor over the last 7-8 years it is killing me to stay.  I see why people are leaving when they can and not returning.  I used to love my job and love my former management.  If your outfit has management with piss poor people skills your days may be numbered. 

 When the day gets bad now I think about where I'm going to retire.  It looks like stay in Michigan or move to TN.             

Just glad I'm retired. I could go back to my old job any time as a contractor. No interest whatsoever 

So, this is going to be a weird addition to this thread, but it is heart felt and authentic, and I just feel led to put it down, so here goes.

I am, as a few of you know, a pastor. I usually try not to talk to much about that, since this is a Michigan sports site, but it goes with this OT thread. I absolutely love my "job." It really is more than a job: it is a calling. I love this so much that I can't believe I'm paid to do something that is such a privilege. The church I serve is in an area with quite a bit of poverty, but that's ok. If I wanted lots of money and prestige, I wouldn't be here and in this position anyway.

The last 4 hours, I've spent talking with two women, one who was a drug addict, one who was an alcoholic. One of them has been a friend for a long time. She was a city administrator and before that a college professor at Virginia Tech, and now she wants to volunteer her abilities and time and skills to help. The other is dealing with a 30 year old suicidal daughter who ran away to Florida and has significant mental health issues. She also wants to help here.

How is this relevant? In two ways.

First, for me in my position, I absolutely love being able to help and encourage individuals who are broken and challenged. Being able to bring God's unconditional love and grace and mercy to hurting people? What a privilege. I'm a lucky man. Switching positions for more prestige and more money would be a terrible decision. My strong advice is to do something you find personally rewarding. Spending your life pining for something else, trying to get more money and more stuff and more prestige? Not worth it. The poster child for this is Vladimir Putin. He thought by adding the Ukraine to the Russian empire, he would establish a lasting legacy. He couldn't have been more wrong.

Secondly, as a small church with limited resources, we could never afford to add gifted staff. But these two women are offering to work here . . . for nothing!!! And third woman started a multimillion dollar business about 10 years ago. Unfortunately, through fraudulent and greedy salesmen employees, she was falsely accused, framed and spent a year in prison. She also wants to use her skills to grow the church, again, for nothing. My point is, if you, as an employer, have a worthwhile position to offer, the right people with the right qualifications will come to you.

About 4 years ago, we built a 40 x 60 building on our property to serve exclusively as a food pantry for this community. Since the pandemic began in mid-March 2020, we have provided free food (and pet food, and diapers, and toilet paper and cleaning supplies, etc.) to 15,718 people. We do this because it is a good thing to do. When you spend your life doing good and worthwhile things, you don't have to worry about money, and you don't have to worry about attracting staff.

I'm in the process of completely upending my life and moving off the grid. I guess I picked the right time to do it.

"Where all the people went." I have a couple theories:

- Almost 1,000,000 dead of COVID. Substantially higher mortality than normal adding even more than that. Not all of those were in the workforce; however...

- How many more have debilitating long COVID symptoms that take them out of the workforce? Seriously, I don't know, but there are estimates of 10-30% of people who caught COVID have lingering symptoms.

- A substantial decline in the number of green cards issued in the second half of 2021, like 200K when 500K is a typical number for six months, 

https://www.pewresearch.org/fact-tank/2022/01/11/key-facts-about-u-s-im…

I posted my personal job situation earlier.  We added two new staffers in the last year.  I'm not impressed.  We had to reach down for them.  They lacked any real or valuable experience, but the pickings were slim.     .   

The school I teach at cannot fill the teaching vacancies and have not been able to all year. Substitutes do not exist. Teachers are now required to fill in as subs during preps/PLC meeting times multiple days per week. Teachers in the district are often not leaving for new teaching jobs. They are simply leaving teaching all together. If I didn't enjoy teaching it would be really hard for me to justify staying in the field with so many better paying options around at the moment. 

I've been with my company for 12 years now and am for the first time thinking seriously of looking around and the times we're in have exacerbated that itch.  I'm in a weird place where I'm not over-the-moon about my office but have been around long enough that I know exactly how much I don't have to bust my butt to get by.  Also, I'm now seriously out of practice in the interview department and that intimidates me.

I've never been particularly career-minded - I view a job as strictly a way to get money to live - but I wouldn't mind better pay and a more organized company. At some point I'm going to have to make a move and hop on indeed

My wife is about to jump ship for a 50% (!) raise. Same industry. Benefits are a little worse, but it’s a slam dunk no brainer. 

Last week, a recruiter wrote me on LinkedIn:  "Hey I saw your profile and think I've got some opportunities. Call me at xxx.xxx.xxxx"

Me, two days later, calling Recruiter:  ringing...

Recruiter picks up:  "Listen here, I'm not going to tell you twice - "

Me:  "Um, is this Josh? I'm looking for Josh"

Recruiter: "Yeah this is Josh. Bet you weren't expecting to hear ME on the phone! You talk to my assistant the same way - "

Me:  "No, I don't think you understand. You told me to call you"

Recruiter:  "No, YOU don't understand. I am sick and tired of you calling MY staff and speaking to them - "

Me:  "Josh, my name is Buddha Blue. You asked me to - "

Recruiter:  "I don't care WHO you are. Now you need to listen to ME - "

Me:  "But you wrote ME on LinkedIn and asked me to call you - "

Recruiter:  [long silence] "... um, what did you say your name was?" 

BTW the BBC story on jobfishing that Don shared... wow! 

I retired in December and am doing some recruiting as a side gig for a small company. We are hiring technical software engineers and have specifically focused on older workers. We pitched flexibility “bridge to retirement” and have attacked bad corporate culture and bullshit of large companies. We are having great success. Some executive ass at IBM referred to older workers as “dinobabies”, we actively used that term in recruiting.

Life is too short to work for or with terrible human beings, regardless of the pay.  COVID taught me that tomorrow is not promised, so I made a couple of life changes and could not be happier.  I was able to find a gig working with great people, with a flexible work arrangement, that uses my knowledge and experience in a constructive way.  I feel respected, challenged, and in control of my life.  I know many are chasing better pay, but my sense is even more are looking for a better life.  Those companies that show enlightened, people-centric thinking will ultimately win this competition.  Those that treat their staff as expenses on a balance sheet will get their deserved results, too.

Tech industry-

Left Google when a unicorn offered me 30% more liquid comp, bought out the equity I had vesting at the end of last year as a signing bonus, gave me a promotion, and let me go remote. 
 

Outside of being excited by the pre-ipo equity I now have, I’m super happy with the move, as it’s letting me cut off 3+ hours of daily commuting and I can see my young child much more.

Took a new job in December. Got a 60% raise. Don't regret it so far.

It took them about 6 months to find me and fill the position.

We are about to hire for a junior level position in my department. The job description my department head wrote was so specific I doubt I even would qualify for it. I had her tone it down a bit, but I'm curious to see what types of candidates we will get.

If you're thinking of switching jobs but like the company you work for, this is a good time to agitate for a pay raise to reflect market conditions.  In my particular field, we are going through a historic pay leveling in which staff with 2-5 years experience are getting 15-20% raises.  We're raising pay across the board to avoid losing team members, because starting over with entry level staff is extremely painful.

We're also hiring entry level staff like crazy, to make up for hiring freezes during the pandemic.  Those offers are 15% higher than pre-pandemic and come with a healthy signing bonus.

Long story short, it's a great time to get paid by a company you really want to work in.  Do some research and figure out your own ideal options, and know one of them may be the company you're already working in.  The market has changed, you deserve more, and the companies hiring know it and will pay it.

With all these people saying they're hiring third party contractors to do the work... where the hell are the third party contractors finding people?

I'm guessing the adage that you get what you pay for is in play here. 

I haven’t seen it anywhere stated as a reason for the shortage anywhere but it’s what makes the most sense to me. Having had a lot of family and friends try to attain green cards & visas since 2016, I’ve seen first hand how our immigration process has slowed down compared to the years preceding that time frame and the data also backs this up (see link below). More than half of my international friends at U-M who graduated in 2017 were unsuccessful in receiving H1Bs after graduating and had to either move back to their home countries or try getting visas in another country. You add this to a declining natural birth rate in the US, 1M people dying in the pandemic, a number of folks who could already afford retirement finally retire with a changed outlook on life due to the pandemic, a number of parents decide not to go back to work since childcare costs just as much as their wages… it kind of makes sense that you have the shortage you’re seeing. 

https://www.census.gov/library/stories/2021/12/net-international-migration-at-lowest-levels-in-decades.html

Great thread. 

I've been in the midst of this as well. I was at the same company for nearly 4 years, before leaving in early 2021. I loved the people at my old job, had good autonomy and amazing work-life balance, but there wasn't the best growth & development potential and I knew I could make more elsewhere (pay raises were very incremental & slow at that company). 

Started searching for a job in late 2020 and early 2021, and it wasn't too hard, but I also wouldn't say it was extremely easy (though, seems like it's gotten even easier since). I'm in Tech, but not an engineer. 

Anyways, a year later I'm making ~55% more than I was this time last year when I left my old job. New job is permanently remote, so I also was able to move to a state with lower income taxes & slightly lower cost of living (that wasn't the main reason I moved, but definitely a perk). I got about two thirds of that raise just by switching jobs, but have also gotten two raises in the past year at my new job (a large one last summer, 15-20%, when I was given a lot more responsibility, and then a more modest one at the end of the year that was just an annual merit/cost of living adjustment). So fantastic on the compensation front, I have no complaints.

All that said, I'm unfortunately pretty miserable in the new job. The first few months were actually great, but it's morphed in a bad way since last summer. The day to day is very stressful & chaotic, it's consistently been like this for many months (and I don't have the power to make it better), boss isn't the best, I'm doing the work of two people with no end in sight, and being fully remote it's very hard to feel connected to the team & company.

So, I'm planning to start looking again in the next few months/this spring (ideally I'd like to be able to stay at a job for at least two years, but with the unhappiness plus the seemingly very positive job market, I don't think it makes sense to wait another year). From very initial searches & turning on my LinkedIn to recruiters, it seems like there's a ton of availability, however, it also seems like the recruiters targeting me are coming with comp offers ~15% lower than what I make now, so I feel I'm probably going to have to make the decision between taking a pay cut & improving my mental health/day to day, or continue with the good pay at the cost of everything else.

It's a privileged problem to have for sure, but still kind of stressed out about it. We'll see what happens, hoping to find "the best of both worlds" eventually. 

I agree with the Great Retirement statement. If I'm 65 and have a 5% mortality rate, and don't have to work right now, I'm not. Or 68 and have retired but making a little extra. Nope.

But the 1 million dead is oversold. 95% of those people were already retired. That may be an underestimate.

As a Silicon Valley/San Francisco tech executive, I can tell you that for tech it is an absolute circus. I have typically worked at small-to-medium, early-stage start-ups in the media/entertainment area, but just finished a 3 year stint at a FANG company and went back to a start-up. For the FANG company it is insane and they are trying to scale at an incredible pace, but they simply cannot find nearly enough qualified people to even start the interview process (very rigorous), let alone run the full gauntlet and actually get hired. They are overloading employees with 2-3x the amount of work (which is normally crazy-intense anyway) in order to try and still make their goals for growth, very much a part of the reason I left.

At the new/smaller/start-up company, same general problem, but different in that the challenge is to even get candidates to take notice/talk to you without waving around indecent amounts of $$, which will mean I have to up-level all my current employees to retain them. I've only been in my current role <6 months, but I'm already getting hit up by recruiters and offered a 20-30% bump with a better equity stake. I don't want to job hop like some of my friends are, but man some of these are cool roles, a few in Europe and one in Singapore (I have been an expat in a few European countries and would love to do so again, but until my son is off to college in a few years, need to stay put).

I work in Product Management/Strategy/Biz Dev, but experienced developers, especially coding engineering managers, QA managers and experienced QA people can pretty much name their price.

@UMProud, I own an industrial automation & engineering integration company.  Our industry is hit hard with a shortage of quality engineering candidates.  For example, we just offered a senior engineering candidate, in our field, a 160k salary with full benefits, minimal travel, work from home, etc.  This same person would have garnered around a 130k offer a year or two ago. 

We are, however, booming with request for proposals for new robotics projects to fill the workforce void.  One of our largest automotive customers (pays very well for low skill operator positions) has over 100 open requisitions they can't fill.  So, they fill some positions with automation and move the operator somewhere else.  Desperate times call for desperate measures.