OSU Allegedly Offering 1st-Round Money to MHJ and Henderson
This was posted on r/cfb.
Not sure what to think about this information, if it's true. OSU's recruiting class seems to be falling apart relative to their standards, and a bunch of dudes are transferring out, so one way to view this is desperation. On the other hand, maybe you say it's best-in-class comp for players that sets a standard.
I think Harrison should go to the NFL. He's not playing for a rookie contract; he's playing for the next one. But I didn't realize Henderson was considered a 1st-round talent, especially with his injury history. If he won't see that first round money, maybe it's a good move for him.
As for the recruiting consequences, I think it's a wash. On one hand, the great players get paid and this creates a carrot similar to what Michigan currently provides. On the other hand, if you're a kid focused on playing time and these big names keep coming back, maybe you look elsewhere.
December 7th, 2023 at 1:12 PM ^
The emotions are still there from the game, so of course they say they're thinking about it. Give it a couple weeks.
December 7th, 2023 at 1:42 PM ^
Seriously doubt that there was ever much emotion in it for Harrison. Dude went to OSU because he knew they could get him the ball, which they did. Straight up business decision.
December 7th, 2023 at 12:53 PM ^
If so, they're heavily overpaying for Henderson. Not sure where he's projected in the draft, but it's certainly not the first day.
December 7th, 2023 at 1:01 PM ^
FWIW virtually all the local guys here in Cleveland are saying this story is nonsense.
December 7th, 2023 at 1:14 PM ^
Maybe these NIL deals are paid out in cryptocurrency and NFTs.
December 7th, 2023 at 1:30 PM ^
Per Google: the last pick in the first round is expected to get $13 million. Would that be the absolute biggest NIL deal in the history of ever for one season?
I suspect it’s more like “here’s a fraction of that but if you think about it it’s roughly one season of your rookie deal.” Which is probably not far off what Blake etc. got to come back.
No way does it actually replace the top 5 contract Harrison is likely to get. That’s projected to be $34.5 million or higher.
December 7th, 2023 at 2:03 PM ^
$13M over 4 years, so I'd assume (if the report was true) OSU is looking to offer in the range of $3M for one more year of "school."
December 7th, 2023 at 4:21 PM ^
That’s what I mean by “fraction of that” but if you are serious about Harrison being a top 5 pick 1/4 of $34 mill is still bigger than any NIL I’ve ever heard of.
December 8th, 2023 at 8:13 AM ^
I meant for Henderson. I don't think they have a shot of getting Harrison to stay.
December 7th, 2023 at 12:54 PM ^
The financial calculus is easy on this one. If you can go to the NFL as a 1st-round pick ---- you go.
It's not just the salary, it's also the signing bonus. You also start the clock, in terms of getting to "NFL Contract Number 2."
December 7th, 2023 at 1:41 PM ^
Plus the pension. Running backs have only so many carries in them - would you rather get those in college or in the pros?
December 7th, 2023 at 12:55 PM ^
If the money is the same, I think the NFL would be more appealing, right? It's a player's dream to make it to the NFL and if you are all but guaranteed that you'll make an NFL roster, you go.
You hearin' me, Marvin?
December 7th, 2023 at 12:55 PM ^
As long as Will Johnson is healthy I don't care if Harrison comes back.
December 7th, 2023 at 1:32 PM ^
I do. Without MHJ this year, there is a very real possibility that OSU loses an additional game or two. Which you would hate to see...but you would love to see.
December 7th, 2023 at 12:56 PM ^
OSU's recruiting class seems to be falling apart relative to their standards ...
Oh, I wish. They lost a single highly ranked DT, but I haven't heard about anything else. They're still way up there:
https://247sports.com/Season/2024-Football/CompositeTeamRankings/
December 7th, 2023 at 1:04 PM ^
Aren't they losing a highly rated DB as well? Scott?
December 7th, 2023 at 1:38 PM ^
Last I heard Scott and West are both locked in. They may be losing Jeremiah Smith.
December 7th, 2023 at 5:39 PM ^
I can see why they'd want him but there are at least five other clones.
December 7th, 2023 at 1:29 PM ^
Just lost the top 2024 OT to...
...Colorado.
December 7th, 2023 at 2:54 PM ^
They didn't lose him, though. He was never a commitment.
December 7th, 2023 at 4:01 PM ^
Good point. Didn't land him, though folks thought he was in the bag.
December 7th, 2023 at 1:37 PM ^
It's amazing what three losses in a row will do to a neurotic fanbase. Watch them tear the place down from inside. And what makes it especially sweet is how they were/are calling for M to get the death penalty from the NCAA. Oh so sweet.
December 7th, 2023 at 3:55 PM ^
It shows they have five 5 stars but when you look at the individual players, there are only three 5 stars listed. Are they slow in updating this or am I missing something?
December 7th, 2023 at 12:56 PM ^
Even if true why would you take a 1 year deal over a multi year contract with benefits?? And then if you are OSU and u give out 10mill and don't win your conference you look like the dumbest program in the country
December 7th, 2023 at 1:27 PM ^
Yeah unless its the equivalent of a signing bonus from a 5 year deal I'm not sure why'd you do this.
December 7th, 2023 at 12:57 PM ^
THEE O$U living up to their reputation
December 7th, 2023 at 12:57 PM ^
Come back and get a 4th L, fellas
December 7th, 2023 at 12:57 PM ^
Harrison is looking like a guy who will have 15 year Hall of Fame career, it would be silly to comeback even if the 1 year if the money was equal. In his literal last game he almost saw another likely longtime NFL guy suffer a career ending injury.
December 7th, 2023 at 1:06 PM ^
Your wording is suspect. Zinter will recover from his broken leg well enough to play in the NFL, and he'll still have a good career.
I refuse to believe otherwise...
December 7th, 2023 at 1:10 PM ^
I said he almost saw it happen. The fact Zinter will play again is why he didn't. My point was that Zinter was close to suffering a much worse fate career wise than it looks like he will.
December 7th, 2023 at 1:25 PM ^
Breaking a bone is a much better injury than tearing ligaments in your knee. There's a reason they where those knee braces. Your body is able to heal bone without leaving a scar.
People gauge how watching a bone break makes them feel with it being a possible career ending injury because they're gruesome no doubt but that's just not accurate. Like Harbaugh said Zinter is fortunate he was wearing his brace correctly.
December 7th, 2023 at 2:28 PM ^
True, in most cases you are correct, but it's not a sure thing. With severe fractures, it is possible that it will never be the same. See Charles Rogers clavicle, Alex Smith, Joe Theismann, etc. These are extreme examples, but thank God that Zak's injury wasn't extremely severe, but for a while there it was unclear.
December 7th, 2023 at 12:58 PM ^
MJH is going to be a top 5 pick in the draft. That means a contract worth at least $35 million.
maybe OSU offers $5 million? For one year, really? Why would you take that and risk your value if you know your value right now is 7x that?
December 7th, 2023 at 1:06 PM ^
Agreed.
Remember when Aiden Hutchinson announced his signing bonus in front of the whole team in Hard Knocks?
$23 million.
I looked up his contract - he has $35 million in guaranteed money.
If Harrison stays at OSU for another year, that strikes me as a foolish move.
December 7th, 2023 at 1:30 PM ^
yeah pretty much what I said up thread. In order for this to make sense the offer from OSU has to be in the $25M range for 1 year. Because otherwise you just go to the NFL and get your $25M right now.
December 7th, 2023 at 12:59 PM ^
If MHJ takes that deal then he's an absolute fool. His stock for the NFL can't go any higher than where it is now. He is the guaranteed first non-QB off the board, and as the OP alluded to, he's not a guy playing for his first contract. He's playing for that second contract where he will be raking in hundreds of millions.
If he forgoes all of that to take one more year at OSU, all he's doing is diluting his earning potential. He's giving himself one less year of NFL earnings, and he's increasing his risk of injury. All it takes is one injury to derail your entire career.
If they're offering that deal to Henderson then he should probably take it. He's not a sure-fire first round pick like an Ezekiel Elliott or Saquon Barkley was. But MHJ? Man I'd have to question his common sense if he took that kind of deal.
The #5 pick in the draft last year made just shy of $35 million. MHJ is guaranteed to be gone before pick #5. He's the #3 pick at the latest, so his value is probably around $40 million this year, at least. He's only staying at OSU for one more year, if he stays at all, so OSU would theoretically have to offer him in the neighborhood of $8 million, but that's only guaranteed money for one year.
The NFL is offering you A LOT more guaranteed money. They're offering it to you for five years on that first contract, and potentially a lot more years and several metric tons more money after that. He'd essentially be settling for around 20% of what he's really worth by staying at OSU.
MHJ seems like a good dude, but if he takes that deal from OSU, he's a bleeping moron.
December 7th, 2023 at 1:10 PM ^
Seriously! Look, I'd love another chance to hang another L around his neck, but that dude is a dude and he's earned his payday. I want to have the fun of watching him against NFL corners, rather than the stress of watching him against future NFL corners (Will Johnson)! He's the best WR I've seen a college in decades, and I believe he's going to be a better pro than his dad was. The rare son of a legend that is better than the legend...
December 7th, 2023 at 1:16 PM ^
Agreed. I think he's the best receiver prospect since Calvin. Size, speed, athleticism. He's going to be scary good.
December 7th, 2023 at 1:23 PM ^
A pipe dream for sure from those bums. I think papa Harrison will know what is best
MHJ could very well be top 3 pick...yeah that aint happening buckeyes
December 7th, 2023 at 2:56 PM ^
Not could be. Is.
Barring injury or some massive off-field issue, MHJ is probably the safest prospect in the draft as far as his draft status is concerned. QBs can slide because every single aspect of their game is so heavily scrutinized, mental and physical, and if one team doesn't draft a QB everyone is sure is going in that spot, every other team freaks, starts asking questions, and starts to pass on that guy, too. Because they're all wondering "what does Seattle or Arizona know that we don't?"
I don't see that happening with MHJ. Whatever team drafts first that doesn't need a QB, they're taking MHJ. If he falls beyond the third pick, whoever gets him is getting a steal.
December 7th, 2023 at 1:00 PM ^
Henderson should take it because the shelf life of a RB in the NFL is 3 years. Get paid before you go. Harrison should go, WRs last forever.
December 7th, 2023 at 1:00 PM ^
MHJ makes sense. Henderson definitely smacks of desperation because their RB room is looking pretty quiet. He's not worth that much money. Doesn't scare me, and maybe whoever is paying that much won't have any more money to give to a lineman. I know that's not how it works but this just seems like a poor use of resources.
December 7th, 2023 at 1:01 PM ^
Maybe the money that Harrison is being offered is equivalent to 1st year salary, but he probably will get a signing bonus of over $20M once he signs his NFL contract. There's no way anything equivalent to that is on the table.
December 7th, 2023 at 1:02 PM ^
Henderson might want to pack his bags because he's sick of losing to Michigan.
MHJ might want to pack his bags because he'll make more money in the NFL and he's sick of losing to Michigan.
December 7th, 2023 at 1:02 PM ^
I'm not sure how this could be true. Top five picks in the draft--as MHJ would be--make about $35m at minimum. If OSU has boosters who are lunatic enough to give that to one player, well, OK, I guess? Would be terrible ROI given the portal talent you could bring in across the roster for that much
As for Henderson, it would also be nutty to give him first-round money since he's not a first-rounder. Nor is he some game-breaking talent. He's a good player but him coming back won't make as much difference for OSU as, say, an elite IOL
December 7th, 2023 at 1:15 PM ^
Pretty sure they are talking about 1st round rookie salary - the NIL from OSU was reportedly between $750-800k per what I saw on Twitter. As others have noted above, that is flawed math when you consider the signing bonus etc. that comes to the very top picks
December 7th, 2023 at 1:54 PM ^
This is what happens when people don't go to play school. Maths are hard.
December 7th, 2023 at 1:03 PM ^
Let's match that with JJ.
December 7th, 2023 at 1:04 PM ^
What does "first round money" mean though? Does it mean one year's worth of first round level salary? Does it take into account signing bonuses and guaranteed money? As others have said, one of the major reasons to leave for the NFL early is that it starts the clock to getting that next contract (which is going to be much more lucrative). Plus, this sounds like essentially getting a one-year contract at OSU vs a four or five-year contract in the NFL. Can't think of too many people who would take a one-year contract over a four-year contract of the same value/year...
December 7th, 2023 at 1:05 PM ^
This guy is just some rando who has no idea what he's talking about. In the replies he said "he meant just the first year" and he "worded it weird".
There's zero chance they're paying Harrison what he'd get in the NFL. He's almost guaranteed to go top-3. 3rd pick in 2023 was $38.2MM. OSU isn't ponying up that much. And those contracts are guaranteed, so paying 1 year value (if they could pay ~$10MM) of a 4 year deal with the possibility of blowing out a knee or something is nonsense.