OSU's and ND's odds of making CFP
I see that Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com gives OSU a 63% chance of making the CFP if it wins out and Notre Dame only a 2% chance if it wins out. I'm wondering why such a massive difference.
If both should (unfortunately) win out, I'm wondering why OSU is ranked ahead of ND? OSU would have the more embarrassing loss (Iowa). Their quality wins are fairly comparable.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions/
November 20th, 2017 at 4:47 PM ^
Because in that scenario the university of ohio state gets a conference championship game.
November 20th, 2017 at 6:46 PM ^
Yes indeed. The extra game matters a ton in these situations now, and it is for that reason that I almost - ALMOST - want to hear the whiny-bitchy rant of the ND people at work in the event that Notre Dame is excluded from the playoff. I mean, you can't just casually date the ACC and expect them to do you a favor in the moment, right?
November 20th, 2017 at 9:16 PM ^
And I hope ND gets the effing message and joins a ding-dang conference. Their indepence with benefits relationship with the ACC makes sense only as a Rube Goldberg excuse to keep the special deal with NBC. In other words ND wants the "what's mine is mine, and what's yours in mine" deal. Texas almost blew up the Big 12 with that attitude, and karma has been repaying them for a while now. Hopefully, karma puts ND on the hit list.
November 20th, 2017 at 4:47 PM ^
It's mostly because OSU would have a conference championship and wins over two reasonably well-regarded opponents. ND gets Stanford and that's it. Yet another example of why ND's aversion to conference membership hurts them in the current playoff environment. With a crack at another "marquee" victory to end the year from a conference championship, they'd have a stronger case. But for now, they're like a number of other 2-loss teams without a chance to make a statement (see Auburn against Alabama, OU in their conference title game, etc.).
November 20th, 2017 at 4:58 PM ^
And Miami will be in a conference championship game. ND is part-time in the ACC and would be their 2nd or 3rd best team. Yes, the are independent, but being half-in/half-out of the ACC (I think) hurts them in this case.
November 20th, 2017 at 5:04 PM ^
Not being in a conference should hurt them. Of course, not playing in the conference champioinship game helped OSU last year.
November 20th, 2017 at 5:42 PM ^
hurts them this year because they have two losses and still will have more to prove after this weekend, which they won't be able to do.
If they had only lost one game thus far, it would probably help them to not be in a conference title game so they could sit home and hope OSU beats Wisconsin to give them a spot.
So in any given season, it could help or hurt ND depending on how their first 12 games go, which can be said for teams in a conference, too. I'm sure the winner of Bama/Auburn would rather not play UGA which does nothing but give UGA a chance to swich places in the top 4.
November 21st, 2017 at 12:27 AM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 5:39 PM ^
Yes, in this case they wouldn't even get in. But as we've seen, not winning your conference and losing to the conference winner hasn't been a block against you making the playoff. But more generally, ND doesn't have even the possibility of a championship game appearance, which will always hurt them.
November 21st, 2017 at 4:34 AM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 4:49 PM ^
There's something to being a conference champion.
Also, I'd argue the win over OU is significantly bigger than anything ND did
November 20th, 2017 at 4:51 PM ^
You mean the blowout at the hands of OU?
November 21st, 2017 at 12:37 PM ^
oops-my bad
November 20th, 2017 at 4:52 PM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 5:01 PM ^
but this year Baker Mayfield owns the Horseshoe (according to Siri!).
http://ftw.usatoday.com/2017/09/ohio-state-buckeyes-siri-burn-oklahoma-…
Ask Siri "Who owns Ohio Stadium?"
November 20th, 2017 at 5:40 PM ^
Yeah, but you could imagine what it would be like if they did, right?
November 20th, 2017 at 4:49 PM ^
if OSU wins out they will have defeated a Top 5 WISCO. If ND wins out, their best win will have been to 2-loss USC.
November 20th, 2017 at 5:03 PM ^
I hear you. Although ND will have beaten USC, NC State, Stanford, and Michigan State. All quality teams, IMO.
November 20th, 2017 at 5:51 PM ^
Michigan, MSU (much more impressively than ND did), Wisconsin and Penn State.
NC State is not very high quality. OSU will have significantly superior wins, which the committee has been consistent about in putting higher value over questionable losses.
November 20th, 2017 at 7:17 PM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 4:49 PM ^
Probably because OSU would have an extra (quality) win with the conference champ game.
November 20th, 2017 at 4:49 PM ^
BTW, FiveThirtyEight.com also gave a previous Democratic candidate a ~70% chance of winning as late as Election Day... so, yay, how 'bout them apples, Nate Silver?
#nopoliticshere
November 20th, 2017 at 4:57 PM ^
In fairness a 30% chance of something happening is still a pretty good chance.
November 20th, 2017 at 8:38 PM ^
...that the money line on Michigan this weekend is +348, which means the implied probability of a Michigan win is 22%. 3/4 of a pretty good chance is still an ok chance, right?
November 21st, 2017 at 12:29 AM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 4:52 PM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 6:40 PM ^
We'll have something to say about one of them.
November 20th, 2017 at 4:53 PM ^
If USC wins out, they should go over Ohio State.
November 20th, 2017 at 5:53 PM ^
despite losing by about 100 to them?
USC is out. Not enough good wins. Destruction at the hands of the only team in the top 10.
November 20th, 2017 at 6:34 PM ^
If the season started in mid-October, USC would be in the Playoffs every single year.
November 20th, 2017 at 10:58 PM ^
they're on a schedule-driven four game win streak not much more impressive than our three game win going into last weekend.
They've only played two semi-difficult road games all year and lost them both (WSU and ND).
Their most impressive win is home against Standford, I guess. Maybe at ASU. Stanford has three losses and beat Oregon State and Cal each by three points. They're thouroughly mediocre.
USC hasn't done anything very impressive this year which is why they're behind several other two loss teams where they belong.
November 20th, 2017 at 4:55 PM ^
OSU winning out means they beat us then beat Wisconsin in the Big 10 championship game. If that happens I think they will make the playoffs since Miami and Clemson will play each other. I don't see a 10-2 non-champion Clemson / 11-1 non-champion Miami going in over a Big 10 champion OSU.
The only non-champion team I can see going in ahead of a Big 10 champ OSU is Alabama. If Alabama loses a close game to either Auburn or Georgia I could see the CFP committee still putting them in simply because Bama rightly gets the benefit of the doubt.
November 20th, 2017 at 7:19 PM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 5:19 PM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 5:21 PM ^
11-2 big ten champion is more attractive than a 10-2 notre dame.
OSU needs Alabama and Miami for sure to win out. Oklahoma winning out probably helps too but not as directly.
If Alabama can give Auburn its 3rd loss and Georgia its 2nd loss then that will catapult OSU ahead of them. Then by virture of 11-2 they'll pass 10-2 notre dame. Then they'll pass Wisconsin because they won the head to head and the committee doesn't seem to be too high on Wisconsin. So now OSU is sitting at #5. If Miami beats Clemson giving clemson a 2nd loss then OSU should jump Clemson since OSU will have the same record but be a conference champion.
November 20th, 2017 at 6:39 PM ^
Sad but true.
Ohio State has two bad losses but will still play for the NC.
It does not even matter.
FML.
November 20th, 2017 at 5:44 PM ^
1. Ohio State is in
2. Evalute the worth and value of conference championships taking into account rule #1
3. Head to head matchups only matter when Ohio State has won them
4. When in doubt ask UFM his opinion
November 20th, 2017 at 8:37 PM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 5:54 PM ^
get serious consideration over a two-loss team if they easily beat one-loss USF and one-loss Memphis to win the AAC.
November 20th, 2017 at 8:14 PM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 8:56 PM ^
They're #15 at Sagarin, #12 at Massey, #13 in FEI.
There have been G5 teams in the past that probably would have deserved a look. In 2010 TCU was #4 at Massey and Boise was 5. In 2009 those two were flipped. Urban's last Utah team was #3. But most of those teams had top-20 P5 wins on their resume and all of them were annihilating opponents. By comparison, UCF's having relatively competitive games and playing a weaker schedule.
I'm a supporter of the concept of putting a worthy G5 team in. But this isn't the year.
November 20th, 2017 at 10:24 PM ^
As regards schedule, that has a significant impact on Sagarin and Massey. Almost impossible to get too high w/o an above-average schedule. Whereas S&P+ is a more holistic metric. UCF did try fairly well on the OOC front. Maryland is having a sub-par year, and the Georgia Tech game was cancelled by the Hurricane.
In-conference, it's unfortunate for them that the AAC East absolutely stinks outside of South Florida. Cincinnati, ECU and UConn are usually decent to good, but all 3 are total garbage this year. Memphis is a good team, and UCF absolutely whooped them. They can do it again in 12 days too.
Anyway, I think UCF is absolutely legit, but got some scheduling bad breaks this year. I'm not looking forward to the fairly likely scenario of them playing PSU in the Peach Bowl. UCF wins that game, IMO. I'd take UCF over everyone except for about 5 teams.
November 20th, 2017 at 11:23 PM ^
They've only had one win by single digits: a road win by 7 at 6-5 SMU. Their only other win by less than three scores was by ten at Navy, a 6-4 team that is always sold and just lost by only 7 at ND.
In their advanced statistical profile at Football Study Hall, they had a 93 percent chance to win that SMU game, their lowest win expectancy of the season. That's not competitive and none of their other games have been (the Navy game was 96 percent and the rest are all 99 or 100 percent!).
They beat top 20 Memphis by 27! Agree the schedule has been bad and it's a shame their game against G Tech was cancelled and won't get played because it would have been a chance to see them against a P5 team that lost to Miami by only one and Clemson by 14 (so would provide a common opponent for other potential playoff teams).
As Nittany points out, they're #3 in S&P+. FEI hasn't been updated this week but even heading into last week they were only two spots behind Wisconsin which is obviously getting a look. And UCF certainly doesn't deserve to be top 4 now, but I said IF they easily beat USF and Memphis, and other things happen (Bama wins out, Miami beats Clemson, OSU beats Wisconsin) such that the committee is considering two loss teams, they should absolutely give UCF a good long look.
November 20th, 2017 at 6:00 PM ^
Go post on their sites.
GO BLUE!
November 20th, 2017 at 6:28 PM ^
If OSU wins out, they will have beaten an undefeated team in December.
That will get you in over an ND that is not even playing.
Join a conference ND, or stop whining.
November 20th, 2017 at 6:41 PM ^
But style points are gonna count here. So, expect no mercy on Saturday -- and I think we very might see a repeat of that OSU-Wisconsin B10 game a few seasons back, when Wisconsin rolled over and played dead, and let OSU steamroll over them into the playoffs.
Iowa losing to dead-fish Purdue and going to 6-5 on the season probably doesn't help matters much for the Buckeyes -- but, I'd argue that this won't matter in the end, though.
November 20th, 2017 at 8:35 PM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 6:38 PM ^
Looks like the Irish are big Michigan fans this weekend.
Heh.
We'll make a deal: We beat Ohio State, Notre Dame plays our game in Ann Arbor next year instead of South Bend.
November 20th, 2017 at 6:52 PM ^
November 20th, 2017 at 7:08 PM ^
Auburn or Georgia beats Bama. 2 SEC teams get in, ACC winner gets in, and Oklahoma gets in.
Never seen a team have more CFP luck than OSU. Disgusting