OSU's and ND's odds of making CFP

Submitted by llandson on

I see that Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight.com gives OSU a 63% chance of making the CFP if it wins out and Notre Dame only a 2% chance if it wins out. I'm wondering why such a massive difference. 

If both should (unfortunately) win out, I'm wondering why OSU is ranked ahead of ND? OSU would have the more embarrassing loss (Iowa). Their quality wins are fairly comparable. 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2017-college-football-predictions/

 

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Perkis-Size Me

November 20th, 2017 at 7:13 PM ^

ND has no conference title game. They’re not getting in. Period. This is where their arrogance for remaining independent comes back to bite them.

It’s hard for me to see OSU making the playoffs. Them winning out is fairly likely, but how much chaos has to happen in front of them? Auburn would have to lose this weekend, Georgia would have to lose again, and that probably gets them to 5-6. Clemson would have to lose again, and Oklahoma May have to lose again as well. OSU is not passing OU in the rankings if OU wins out.

I think OSU getting de-pantsed by an awful Iowa team is what keeps them out.

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goblue16

November 20th, 2017 at 7:29 PM ^

Because ND lost to Georgia and Miami both of which will get a playoff bid before them while OSU lost to Oklahoma plus play in the big ten title not to mention Oklahoma could lose a game

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YoOoBoMoLloRoHo

November 20th, 2017 at 7:40 PM ^

Bama loss to Auburn, I am not sure how either makes the CFP unless OU loses. Lock in ahead of OSU: Bama, Clemson, Miami, OU (even with a loss) Likely in ahead of both: Georgia (with 2nd loss to Bama) OU beat OSU. Bama will only have 1 loss and Bama. Miami with 0 or 1 loss. Clemson with 1 or 2 losses and 2016 drubbing of OSU. Georgia because SEC and head-to-head vs ND. So that is 4 and maybe 5 teams ahead of ND and OSU.

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andrewgr

November 20th, 2017 at 9:20 PM ^

A two-loss Clemson team that is not a conference champion does not get in ahead of a two loss OSU team that is a conference champion that just beat an undefeated top-5 team.  Literally zero chance of that happening.

Unless something really strange happens, the committee will be faced with choosing between two outcomes they've never had: either two teams from the same conference, or a team with two losses.

They have previously stated that conference championships carry a lot of weight.  Last year's selection of OSU over Penn State would seem to contradict that, particularly given that Penn State even owned the head to head matchup.  However, they evaluate many different factors, and it's certainly possible that they do give conference champions a bonus, but that bonus wasn't enough to make up for an extra loss when comparing teams in the same conference who played many of the same teams throughout the year.

I honestly don't know which would be the right thing to do.  Say Clemson beats Miami.  Taking Alabama, Oklahoma, Clemson, and Miami makes just as much sense to me as putting OSU in instead of Miami.  But Miami has has some very close games against really, really shitty teams, so maybe that's not the most likely way two teams from the same conference happens.  How about Auburn beats Alabama and then wins their conference?  Can you really leave Alabama out in favor of OSU?  I don't think so.  I think in that scenario, we have our first year where two of the five power conferences don't get in, while the SEC gets two.

Of course, Michigan beating OSU would make all this mute.  Wisconsin has almost no chance of beating the Buckeyes, because the game is played on artificial turf in a dome; the speed advantage is just too overwhelming in those conditions.

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allintime23

November 20th, 2017 at 8:12 PM ^

No two loss team will make it. I see Bama vs. Oklahoma and Miami against Wisconsin. Wisconsin will beat Michigan State in the B1G championship game. Yes, Michigan will pull the upset of the decade and beat Ohio State Saturday.

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Scarlatina

November 20th, 2017 at 9:13 PM ^

Hypothetically, if the rest of the regular season plays out as projected/favored. Then Alabama, Miami, and Oklahoma all win out to clinch the SEC, ACC, and Big 12 Championship, which will essentially lock up 3/4 CFP spots:

  • (1) Alabama
  • (2) Miami
  • (3) Oklahoma

That leaves the committee to decide the 4th spot between:

  • Ohio State (11-2; B1G Champions)
    • Key wins: Penn State, Michigan State, Michigan, and Wisconsin
    • Losses: Oklahoma, and Iowa
  • Clemson (11-2)
    • Key wins: Auburn, VaTech, and NC State
    • Losses: Syracuse, and Miami
  • Georgia (11-2)
    • Key wins: Notre Dame, Miss St., 
    • Losses: Auburn, and Alabama
  • Notre Dame (10-2)
    • Key wins: Michigan State, USC, NC State, and Stanford
    • Losses: Georgia, and Miami
  • USC (11-2; PAC-12 Champions)
    • Key wins: Stanford, Arizona and... Stanford/Washington State
    • Losses: Washington State, and Notre Dame

Georgia and Clemson will probably get locked out due to having the most recent losses in their respective conference championships. Notre Dame is most likely out due to having 1 less win, and no conference championship. So the last spot will probably go whichever team finishes the season with the most dominating/convincing wins between Ohio State and USC.

HOWEVER, if Chaos reigns supreme, and Auburn beats Alabama this weekend, and goes onto to play Georgia in the SEC Championship. The committee is going to have a tough time deciding whether or not to lock out an Alabama (11-1) in favor for a SEC Champion in either Auburn (11-2) or Georgia (12-1).

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Yeoman

November 20th, 2017 at 9:22 PM ^

Justified or not, I think it will be hard to get a consensus in the room in favor of any of these five that have losses to one of the others, and that will knock ND and USC out of contention in the first round of discussion. (And the more sophisticated people in the room who wouldn't be swayed by that overly simplistic analysis will probably have noticed how dreadful USC stacks up in any remotely advanced metric--the computers have them as low as #20, they're 17 and 18 in the two Football Outsiders stats.)

Besides, Wisconsin's going to crush a demoralized Ohio State and it'll be obvious who the fourth team needs to be. :)

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BuckeyeRealist13

November 20th, 2017 at 11:13 PM ^

USC beat unranked UCLA, and will play a team ranked between 10-20 in their championship game. Because Ohio State is at Michigan, and playing Wisconsin and Ohio State is already ranked ahead of them, there just isn't a path for USC to jump Ohio State should it come down to those two. This is just in a hypothetical that Ohio State is able to go into Ann Arbor and knock off Michigan and beat one of the best teams in the country in Wisconsin the very next weekend. 

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BuckeyeRealist13

November 20th, 2017 at 11:09 PM ^

I can't speak in absolutes, but I'm 99.9% sure Wisconsin controls its own destiny. If Alabama loses to Auburn, or Georgia and Wisconsin beats Minnesota and Ohio State, Wisconsin would be in over Alabama if it came down to those two. An undefeated B1G champion isn't being left out of the playoffs, especially not a team as good as Wisconsin. 

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