Oregon St AD talks about the possibility of a promotion/relegation model in college athletics.
https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38457319/promotion-relegation-model-worthy-study
TL;DR
The current athletic director for Oregon State says a promotion/relegation model similar to European soccer could come to college football in the future. He's obviously biased because his team would benefit from a system like that, especially now with OSU being ranked in the top 15 and having a great season. WSU would have a similar benefit.
The article goes on to state that it is unlikely to happen as even European soccer teams are trying to break away from promotion/relegation systems. The now defunct Super League was an attempt to do just that. The American model is more profitable for the teams at the top and it would likely take a top team to be in favor of promotion/relegation for it to come to college football.
Either way, interesting idea.
September 22nd, 2023 at 12:50 PM ^
in 2014, imagine what people would say about Michigan had Harbaugh not come. Think about how we talk about Nebraska and how we talked about the U until this year. Programs go up and down. Yes, Oregon State will likely not reach the same highs as USC, and USC will likely not descend to the same lows. But the ebb and flow is a part of the game.
And the value of promotion/relegation - especially if access to the CFP is open to all even if your school relegates - is that it recognizes and rewards the ebbs and flows for a sport of 70 major competitors and 130 mid-major competitors, while still giving the best at a given time just financial rewards for their excellence.
September 22nd, 2023 at 3:21 PM ^
Sure, but the argument they put forth is basically the same one every G5 program uses when arguing they should be in the playoffs or be given more respect and it usually only applies to a very specific timeframe and team.
Also, college football isn't like professional soccer where leagues are ostensibly set up with things like equal-ish salaries and access to players, at least within the tiers. Yes, periodically a team that is highly regarded may ebb down (as you noted with Michigan and USC) and a scrappy team may move up (such as Cincy a couple of years ago making the playoffs) but the outlook for these teams largely follows historical patterns because we've been playing football in this country for decades and certain teams just enjoy advantages that other teams aren't going to be able to make up. So yes, over a 2-year span Oregon St. has been pretty good, but it's difficult to sustain that success especially if you're also going to wind up playing only teams in this 24-team tier and not a bunch of other bad schools to goose your numbers.
Case in point - Oregon St.'s winningest coach is Mike Riley, and his best run was between 2003 and 2014. During that time he won 85 games and lost 66, for a 56% winning percentage. It's not a perfect cover by take RR and Hoke's runs (2008-2014) and you've got two goobers who went a combined 46-42, a 52% winning percentage. And I'd argue that the Big 10 over that period was better than the Pac-12 over that same frame, but even ignoring that during the best of times for OSU they were barely better than the worst UM teams we've seen in decades.
Maybe UM gets relegated and maybe OSU jumps up for a bit but in the end water finds its level and OSU likely falls into that Mountain West/G5-level team they've been and UM joins the top tier. And now with a promotion/relegation model combined with stuff like NIL and the transfer portal it would be even harder for teams like OSU to retain players and also keep those rivalries in place that do keep fans interested. Because OSU isn't necessarily going to be able to play Oregon every year if they're in different tiers, and that doesn't even take into account the unpredictable costs of scheduling, travel, etc. Because if Oregon State or Wazzou now HAD to travel to Rutgers and Hawaii and, I don't know, UCF in a season because they're in the same tier, that would be incredibly draining.
So again, I'm all for making college football more equitable and feel awful for OSU and WSU, but promotion/relegation sorta makes sense for professional soccer leagues but absolutely doesn't make sense for CFB.
September 22nd, 2023 at 3:57 PM ^
I'm not a huge soccer guy - but yea I agree over the long term teams will mostly stay in the same spot. But I see that as a feature, not a bug. And sometimes - Boise State will blow up and be a regular feature in the best bowl games, beating competitive teams on the regular for 5 years. And wouldn't it be nice to play against them a bit instead of a ho-hum annual series against Indiana?
September 22nd, 2023 at 5:14 PM ^
Wut?
Those were a lot of words so a lot of room for me to misconstrue something but I'll try to limit it to this:
Pro/rel makes exactly the same amount of sense for soccer as it does for college football or any other sports league.
Travel and stuff? If schools cared about travel costs (they should but apparently don't) then the ACC wouldn't invite Stanford and Cal into their conference, along with the 38 other examples of nonsensical conference alignment we've had.
The value of pro/rel is it's fun. For a school like Oregon State, the added value is they have a chance in hell of caring about their season if they're in the lower division and can fight for promotion, or if they're in the top division it's fun to play the big boys.
Despite some people ITT trying to argue otherwise, there is likely no economic benefit, especially to the big teams like Michigan. This is why some big soccer clubs tried to create a Super League in Europe, so they could be in a closed league that had no pro/rel and the fans in Europe lost their shit for the same reason we lost our shit when Dave Brandon tells us that Michigan and Ohio State should play in October (but that day is coming so get ready).
Major League Soccer is not even considering pro/rel even though a lot of fans really want it. The USL is considering a pro/rel because they think maybe it will gin up some interest in their failing league. It won't, but it's the only hope they've got.
September 22nd, 2023 at 3:10 PM ^
Once relegated, they wouldn't be playing against top teams the following season, they'd be playing mostly against their competitive cohorts making their chance to get back to the top division easier.
September 23rd, 2023 at 6:17 AM ^
They'd also get robbed blind in the transfer portal.
September 22nd, 2023 at 12:37 PM ^
I think the SuperLeague model could work in college football. Something like 40 teams, with 16ish having relegation protection (the top revenue-generators), and 5ish relegation spots every year. It would make CFB so much more exciting.
But yes, these teams would likely need relegation protection:
- Michigan
- Ohio State
- Georgia
- Alabama
- Notre Dame
- Tennessee
- LSU
- Texas
- Penn State
- Clemson
- Florida
- USC
- Washington
- Florida State
- Oregon
- Oklahoma
I'm probably missing one or two, and maybe a couple of these are up for debate. But this model could work.
September 22nd, 2023 at 8:29 PM ^
Not necessarily relegation protection, in my view, but probably additional compensation to allow this model to come to pass.
September 22nd, 2023 at 12:41 PM ^
It’s an incredibly fun idea and would make the CFB product much more exciting.
But it will never happen. There is zero incentive for the big schools to do it.
September 22nd, 2023 at 12:47 PM ^
I think their incentive could be - more games against other big money schools = more TV money.
So, you relegate the Big Ten Wests' of the world and put the top of the Big Ten and SEC together in a small enough league that everyone plays everyone and they have enough OOC games to play their rivals (the important rivalries will be mostly sorted by the TV folks, unfortunately).
All the other games are on cable, the CW, or peacock/ESPN+. The top league games are on broadcast. TV is happy. Big schools are happy. Fans are probably half happier that this ish makes more sense, and half hate it because now M-MSU isn't a Big Ten game but does have promotion/relegation implications.
September 22nd, 2023 at 8:05 PM ^
How much would FOX and ESPN pay for 10 weeks of games at noon, 3:30 and 8:00, on both networks, featuring the following teams playing each other:
Ohio State, Michigan, Alabama, Notre Dame, LSU, Georgia, Penn State, Texas, Auburn, Oklahoma, Florida, Clemson, and Texas A & M.
That's the incentive.
September 23rd, 2023 at 1:34 AM ^
Exactly. Instead we get four weeks of Michigan playing ECU, UNLV, BGSU, and Rutgers. 😴
September 22nd, 2023 at 12:43 PM ^
I think I'd like this model as long as the lower teams still have access to the playoff. And the promotion should be based on performance in the playoff, relegation should be based on whether there's deserving teams to unseat those at the bottom.
I actually think we effectively have a promotion relegation system - but it's not exactly based on on-field performance. It's based on TV numbers, which include an aspect of on-field performance. The SEC and Big Ten have relegated the B12 and ACC to second tier status, while schools like BYU and Cincy have been promoted to the B12 based on on-field performance, and schools like Wazzu and Oregon State are being demoted because...TV. Or something.
A system that ties TV revenue (which is why anyone cares about being in the top league) with on-field performance but is still open enough that cinderella type seasons can be rewarded at the highest prize is one that should theoretically work for the TV execs, and would be (for this fan anyway) more compelling than the off-field antics that today decide who gets to matter and who doesn't. If you keep the conferences/divisions small enough, you can still play rivalry games even if your rival is promoted/relegated/sorted in a different league.
And you really just need the Super 2 and Other 2 to sign on - the G5 has seen all their competitive programs disappear. As long as they get access to the CFP they'll be happy. You can put some financial criteria around getting into the Power 4 to further gatekeep them. But I think it'd be better than what we have now, and potentially better than what we used to have - for both the fan and the TV Exec.
September 22nd, 2023 at 12:45 PM ^
Just no. Same answer when this was brought up X years ago.
September 22nd, 2023 at 1:24 PM ^
Talks about the possibility? Is this just him talking?
my guess is this has almost zero chance.
September 22nd, 2023 at 3:16 PM ^
Could be. But there may be some residual value in the PAC-# brand that WSU and OSU are desperate to hang onto, otherwise they’d just join the MW and be done with it.
September 22nd, 2023 at 5:14 PM ^
Oregon State and Washington State are exploring possibilities with the Mountain West to expand the conference with promotion/relegation so that Oregon State/Wazzu won't be stuck playing worthless garbage like Nevada. I think it's possible we could see promotion/relegation at the mid major level.
September 22nd, 2023 at 1:25 PM ^
I love the idea, but in Europe pro/rel has been part of the culture for over a century and that is why the Super League is deeply unpopular. The United States has had a closed system in every major sport and when necessary the major 'leagues' or conferences will absorb teams into the closed system when their owners can be richly rewarded for doing so (franchise fees, which are pure profit, or more lucrative broadcasting rights fees).
September 22nd, 2023 at 2:15 PM ^
OSU & WSU just need to join the Mountain West already. They'll instantly raise the level of performance in that conference, and should start focusing on establishing those rivalries with their in-state counterparts in the B1G. There seems to be no chance that the B1G will invite them now that they passed on Stanford & Cal. This idea of relegation is nowhere close to reality, for all the reasons folks have presented. Need to button-up the disintegration of the Pac 12 & get with a conference already.
September 22nd, 2023 at 2:19 PM ^
Hybrid model
There are currently 133 FBS teams. They should be broken down as follows:
- Group 1 of 40 teams in 4 ten team conferences. The membership of these conferences are fixed (not subject to relegation) and these conferences are always part of the "premier" level . Membership here could be established based upon some initial criteria for stadium size, attendance, revenues and/or a $ buy-in.
- Group 2 of 20 teams in 2 ten team conferences. These conferences are always in the premier level, but the teams are subject to relegation to Group 3.
- Group 3 of the remaiing 73 teams arranged however they want. These teams are subject to promotion into Group 2.
How it plays out:
- Each group 1 and 2 team plays the other 9 teams in their conference plus 3 out of conference games that must include at least one team from group 1 or 2.
- The 4 group 1 and 2 group 2 conference winners plus the next six most highly rated teams from group 1 and 2 make the play-offs. The top 4 ranked conference winners from group 1 and 2 get a bye. The winner of this play-off is the National Champion.
- The bottom 2 teams from each group 2 conference (4 teams total) get relegated to group 3 for the following season.
- The top 16 ranked teams from Group 3 enter into a promotion play-off. This is 4 pods of 4 teams. The winner of each pod gets promoted to Group 2 for the next season.
September 22nd, 2023 at 2:24 PM ^
I wish I had a fiver for every post about this scheme that has zero chance of ever happening.
September 22nd, 2023 at 2:53 PM ^
Hmm...a system in which a Michigan, Oklahoma or Texas could be excluded from a chance at the playoffs/national championships and instead stuck playing only the likes of Central Michigan, Texas State and Louisiana Tech for a year..yeah somehow I don't see the networks getting on board with that.
September 22nd, 2023 at 3:45 PM ^
People calling for relegation in college football remind me of the kids in junior high (yes I'm that old) who ran for student government on a platform of putting Coca Cola in the drinking fountains.
September 22nd, 2023 at 4:57 PM ^
So the reality is that TV contracts make it impossible to ever do anything like this for the upper echelon of the sport, but I do think promotion/relegation could be possible for the next level down, which is apparently what Oregon State is exploring with the Mountain West. Right now, the mountain west's top end could compete in the Pac 12 today, but the bottom of that league is sub-FCS level for athletic budget.
But going forward, if the Mountain West could get North Dakota State and the lesser mountain schools like Montana/Montana State/North Dakota/South Dakota/South Dakota State, split the league in two with the upper half on the promotion side and the lower half on the relegation side, that could actually be attractive to TV networks. You'd be guaranteeing them a better supply of games from the upper half plus a ton of inventory due to the size of the league.
If it works, maybe you could see the AAC and CUSA merge with the CUSA as the relegation league. The lower leagues are going to have to get creative to make themselves valuable to TV in the super league era.
September 22nd, 2023 at 6:47 PM ^
For that to work all teams would need to share evenly in the money even when relegated. Really it needs to be shared evenly across all of D1 college football which would and should drop half the teams first. Otherwise no shitty school in a good conference will ever go for this.
September 22nd, 2023 at 7:35 PM ^
Considering what has happened in the recent past (NIL, the Big 18, the PAC-2, games on Peacock, 4 team playoffs, 12 team playoffs, etc.) I have to wonder about people thinking there’s no way this can happen.
September 22nd, 2023 at 8:26 PM ^
The more I think about it the more I think there's a scenario where promotion and relegation could actually happen. Before the playoff (and especially starting next year when there's 12 teams in the playoff), the best thing about college football was it was the one major American sport where the regular season mattered more than the postseason.
Well, in the Premier League, there is no playoff. And in a promotion and relegation college football season, there shouldn't be a playoff either. Winner of the "Premier College Football League" is the champion of college football.
And if you're worried about your team only having 6 home games in a 13 team league, well, there's 17 college football playing Saturdays on the 2024 college football calendar. There's no reason teams couldn't pick up two additional home games against the Divisional tier of the college football promotion and relegation system to gain some additonal revenue. 14 games in 17 weeks.
I think some people believe the Big Ten and SEC control college football. They don't. ESPN/ABC and FOX (and to a lesser extent, CBS and NBC) control college football. If they want this to happen, it can happen.
September 22nd, 2023 at 8:15 PM ^
Relegation will never happen in US Sports..
September 22nd, 2023 at 8:31 PM ^
Brilliant.
That's why it won't happen.