Notre Dame reports 29 Covid cases 1 week into school
Notre dame did pre matriculation testing to isolate all cases before returning to campus
Unsurprisingly, this method didn’t work and now 29 cases have been spreading Covid through campus for the past week.
UofM is following a similar approach, so I thought it was relevant to post here
August 14th, 2020 at 10:57 PM ^
Small typo but you meant to say, “only way you get 0.03% is...if you don’t know how percentages work”
August 14th, 2020 at 6:07 PM ^
Do you understand how percents work?
Let's give you choices: choice (1) is a virus that kils 10%. Choice (2) is a virus that kills 1%. Which is worse? If you have no other info but that one stat, it's easy to assume (1) is worse because duh, it's more deadly!
But that right there is how easy it is to manipulate stats to fit an agenda. The true answer is you don't have enough info...
I didn't just randomly pick percentages, (1) is actually the death rate of the first SARS virus from 2002. Thing is, only ~8000 people caught it globally, of which about 800 died. (2) is more representative of covid*, and while it's less lethal on an individual basis it is unequivicolly worse than SARS. Because so far there have been 21,000,000 confirmed cases and 760,000 deaths, with no signs of it slowing down anytime soon.
So miss me with your misleading "survival rates" BS. Focusing on percentages misses the fundamental point of why this is fucking serious.
*because I damn well know somebody will say something about this...the true percentage is still unknown. 1% is a guess...it could be lower. Probably even is. But that doesn't change the fact that so far Covid has so far killed almost 1000 times the number that the first SARS did.
August 15th, 2020 at 10:07 AM ^
Clap clap clap
August 14th, 2020 at 1:44 PM ^
Testing lags symptoms
it can take up to 7-10 days to receive test results back
it takes about that long before the disease progresses enough/is severe enough to require hospitalization.
Only a subset of hospitalized patients require ventilation
Deaths really lag positive test results/hospitalizations. For ex, hermain cain was hospitalized for ~1 month before he died.
but sure. Knowing all this it’s reasonable to ask “how severe the cases are” only 1 week back into school.
& you could check the indyStar or such to find out what the hospital situation is. That you didn’t before you asked your question suggests you’re not serious.
August 14th, 2020 at 1:46 PM ^
Sometimes a statement can put in the form of a question. As you undoubtedly were doing. And referring to your detractors as sheep is a sure giveaway of your motivation----and limitations.
August 14th, 2020 at 1:54 PM ^
LOL. "Just asking a question", yeah okay. My sister does that bullshit, it's just a cheap ploy, and you know what you were doing.
August 14th, 2020 at 2:35 PM ^
Just asking a question*...
*in blindingly bad faith
August 14th, 2020 at 7:59 PM ^
Wow man. You're such a free thinker. No one has thought critically about this until you. Thanks for showing us the light.
August 14th, 2020 at 1:17 PM ^
Sooo, I’m a freshman and my older brother Dan is a senior with off-campus housing. Dan likes to get with the townies to party and I meet a girl at a party that isn’t part of the campus community. She’s nice and I end up introducing her parts to my parts. I get COVID and bring it back to the dorms. How can they hope to stop it?
August 14th, 2020 at 1:25 PM ^
Well... they can just have you "fixed" now and save you from a whole host of potential problems in the future, including catching covid from a hypothetical hook-up.
You wanted suggestions.
August 14th, 2020 at 1:44 PM ^
Are you an ND freshman in this scenario? If so, you should not be partying with south bend townies, that's your first problem. Did she tell you she was at St. Mary's or something? They love to pretend to be nd students.
August 14th, 2020 at 1:18 PM ^
Where are all the folks who were posting in the thread from a few days ago, using ND as the reason we should/would be fine to play foosball?
Show yourselves!
August 14th, 2020 at 1:30 PM ^
So based on a student population of 8,624, .334%* now have covid after one week.
I do think we are fine playing foosball, wearing masks of course.
*corrected my fat finger of the stat.
August 14th, 2020 at 1:53 PM ^
And apparently they didn't teach math when you went to the M either. 29 out of 8624 is 0.3%. You are off by two orders of magnitude. Was that a real mistake or just trying to push more lies?
August 14th, 2020 at 1:58 PM ^
He did the same thing above, citing 99.96% survival rate. I'm not even responding to him anymore. The avatar is all he has going for him anymore.
August 14th, 2020 at 2:08 PM ^
We can agree on that, it's a great avatar!
August 14th, 2020 at 2:10 PM ^
Yeah, calculating survival rate with a denominator of "# of people tested' is beyond stupid. And at the same time he asks "Since when did statistics become political?" Unreal!
August 14th, 2020 at 2:16 PM ^
I didn't calculate anything for that (thankfully!). That's from the CDC.
August 14th, 2020 at 2:18 PM ^
Really? Let's see that link then please.
August 14th, 2020 at 3:02 PM ^
Weird! This guy posts 13 times in an hour consistently repeating this stat and as soon as you ask for a link to substantiate this claim, he's gone! It's almost as if he is just a liar.
August 14th, 2020 at 3:53 PM ^
Not a liar, I took the substantial risk of leaving my house, taking my kid to his hockey workout and living my life.
Now I’m on my phone. But the CDC website shouldn’t be difficult for all of you that are smarter than me to navigate.
August 14th, 2020 at 4:01 PM ^
Dude. This is math, it isn't that hard.
There are (appx) 5mil known infected in the US as of today.
There are (appx) 168k known dead in the US as of today.
That does not, in any world, in any math discipline, equal a survival rate of 99.97%.
Try 96.6%, you're just a little bit off.
August 14th, 2020 at 6:03 PM ^
I'll have to find the article/study. It was done by either Stanford or the CDC. They didn't just calculate the number of known infected. They extrapolated through the population and attempted to come up with a number that included unknown infected as well. That's why my number is higher than your calculation of known infected/known dead.
August 14th, 2020 at 7:48 PM ^
168,000 and counting.
That's the Big House, and a pretty full Spartan Stadium full of dead people.
And if we're extrapolating now, then we should look at the 200k plus "excess deaths" over given timespan as well. And all of the people who died with covid, but either weren't tested, or listed as "pneumonia" or "heart attack". You can make numbers say pretty much whatever you want them to say if you extrapolate enough.
August 14th, 2020 at 2:14 PM ^
Oops, you are right, fat fingered that. My apologies, .3324%.
August 14th, 2020 at 3:34 PM ^
After less than a week. It's extremely contagious, especially in a campus environment. This is the exact same argument "you people" were using when we had like 10k deaths nationwide, and started comparing to the flu. It's one thing to be wrong. It's another to refuse to learn from mistakes.
August 14th, 2020 at 1:18 PM ^
I believe this is the reason the CDC did not recommend testing people coming back to campus. False sense of security.
August 14th, 2020 at 1:29 PM ^
At this point, the CDC has completely given up on science in favor of appeasing Trump. This happened a few weeks ago, when Trump blew up over the CDC's school opening guidelines. CDC changed its stance - I suspect Dir Redfield chose to keep his job...
August 14th, 2020 at 1:29 PM ^
but.. but.. the players will be safer on campus!!!
-Satan
Weird... my t key keeps typing a t instead of a t.. oh well, you all know who i mean.
August 14th, 2020 at 1:54 PM ^
The argument isn't "It's safer to be on campus playing football than staying at home in quarantine."
The argument is "It's safer to be playing football and have your health regularly monitored than on campus with no monitoring." They are going to be on campus either way.
August 14th, 2020 at 1:26 PM ^
Somebody tell me. Why are the students back on campus? Why not all remote learning?
August 14th, 2020 at 1:31 PM ^
Not everything can be remote - some courses require a "hands-on" component. Also, many students want the "campus experience" and prefer to come in despite the pandemic. Mostly, colleges need the revenue from having the kids on campus, in the dorms, and doing other normal parts of college life. The smaller universities are desperate, although the larger universities are feeling the effects as well.
August 14th, 2020 at 1:48 PM ^
Hands on classes can be pushed to the following semester or next year.
In other words...it's money over safety.
August 14th, 2020 at 3:01 PM ^
That's cute. You think next semester will happen if this semester is cancelled.
August 14th, 2020 at 8:23 PM ^
Well, given we're expecting spring football or football to resume in 2021 your question is a wee bit silly.
August 14th, 2020 at 1:30 PM ^
This is exactly what I said would happen. Either you accept the risk and keep schools open, or you shut them down. But if you are accepting the risk of schools open, having football isn't going to make a bit of difference and is just posturing.
August 14th, 2020 at 1:34 PM ^
If only those 29 students had been more brave. They were clearly unhinged and hysterical...that’s how Covid gets you!
August 14th, 2020 at 1:35 PM ^
Indiana's test positivity was 9.5% yesterday. Northwest IN has typically run higher than the state average. That's a fair amount of COVID floating around in the area. Hard to believe that can be contained even though ND's campus is kind of a bubble off to the side of South Bend. People who work at ND live in the area, so there's a pathway.
I feel sorry for all students (K-12 and college) having to deal with this. It's like life has become something from a sci-fi movie.
August 14th, 2020 at 1:41 PM ^
South Bend really isn't NW Indiana.
August 14th, 2020 at 1:48 PM ^
It’s close enough. Can’t assume people working at ND or in South Bend don’t live in that area. It’s commutable.
August 14th, 2020 at 1:47 PM ^
Excellent points HHW...!
August 14th, 2020 at 2:01 PM ^
any hospitalizations?
The Harper's incident in East Lansing resulted in no hopitalizations.
August 14th, 2020 at 2:16 PM ^
Scamdemic!
August 14th, 2020 at 2:23 PM ^
People need to let go of the idea that we can actually prevent all infections from happening. We are not New Zealand where the virus has just barely penetrated society. We're at a point where we have to live with it, and it's a question of the tradeoffs we're willing to make to muddle through.
College-age people are statistically very unlikely to become seriously ill from this virus. Here is the Washtenaw data. Here, people under 25 have made up 22 % of known COVID cases but 1 % of hospitalizations and 0 % of deaths. If the entire population responded to COVID the way young people did, there would be no restrictions on society at all.
The issue here is more about how to ensure that these students do not infect those who are in vulnerable categories. I would hope ND has policies in place for its older faculty, and is stressing to students that should they visit relatives, they get tested first.
August 14th, 2020 at 2:42 PM ^
Thank you for your mature and factual input! Not much of this out there anymore. Too much creating panic and chaos out there.
August 14th, 2020 at 2:35 PM ^
And UM will have similar, if not worse, results.
August 14th, 2020 at 2:38 PM ^
Do we know this actually spread? No masks? Any numerous hospiliztions or deaths for all college students?
August 14th, 2020 at 2:57 PM ^
Is 29 a lot? I read the tone of the OP as if this is a catastrophic failure. The expectation or rationale from the University couldn’t have been zero cases to justify the incremental value of in-person education. Did they actually say that was the expectation?
Do we also think all 29 cases were infected since returning to campus? I really just don’t know what to make of this stat.
August 14th, 2020 at 3:03 PM ^
I'll assume you're asking in good faith.
The reason that people are pointing this out is the fact that this virus has shown exponential growth basically throughout the entire world. So while 29 may seem small, that is 29 in one week. The worry is that in another week it will be 87. A week later it will be 261. Within a month you could be looking at a quarter of the campus being positive.
Now with catching the positive testing and doing contract tracing hopefully they can prevent that from happening.
August 14th, 2020 at 3:10 PM ^
I am asking in good faith (I’m not sure where that came from). I understand the exponential growth concern. So the implication is that all 29 of those cases were infected on campus in week 1? I agree that’s concerning.
More philosophically, What first week number would have been “acceptable”? 10 or less? <5? 0? I guess that’s what I’m asking, and sort of saying (Predicting) if the expectation is zero week over week, they will fail.