Nick Saban says old school football (great defense, ball control offense) is NOT enough to win in CFB

Submitted by Frank Chuck on March 26th, 2021 at 12:20 PM

https://footballscoop.com/news/nick-saban-explains-why-we-shouldnt-expect-elite-defenses-to-return-anytime-soon/

https://twitter.com/Cauble/status/1375253680702783488 (Clip from Saban's virtual clinic)

Nick Saban:

“The game is different now. People score fast. The whole idea – like I grew up with the idea that you play good defense, you run the ball, you control vertical field position on special teams, and you’re going to win. Whoever rushes the ball the most, for the most yardage is going to win the game. You’re not going to win anything now doing that.

“We have a good defense. I mean, we gave up 19 points per game last year and that was first in the SEC. 19 points per game. That is six points above what we feel is average, which is giving up 13 points per game…and it’s first in the SEC."

“The way the spread is, and the way that the rules are, to run RPOs, the way the rules are that you can block downfield and throw the ball behind the line of scrimmage, those rules have changed college football. No-huddle, fast ball has changed college football."

“So I changed my philosophy five or six years ago, well it was more than that, so when Lane came here, and we said ‘We have to out score them.'”

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Frank Chuck

March 26th, 2021 at 12:21 PM ^

My commentary:

1. This evolution in college football has been apparent to anyone who has watched the past 10-15 years.

2. It's not a big secret why Michigan has fallen behind. Michigan doesn't have an elite offense led by an elite QB. Relying on an elite defense to hold an elite offense to 20 points is just not gonna cut it.

I'm a broken record about this: Michigan in its *entire history* has never had a QB pass for 3,000+ yards and 30+ TDs in the same season. (The most is 25 TDs in 2 different seasons - Elvis Grbac in 91, freshman Chad Henne in 2004.) 3,000+ yards & 30+ TDs used to be enough to win a Heisman. (See Carson Palmer in 2002.) Now? Those numbers aren't enough to even be selected as 1st team All-Big Ten QB.

3. Fortunately, things can change in a hurry.

Example: Pre-Joe Burrow + pre-Joe Brady LSU was in the same boat Michigan is currently in.

After all, LSU's 2 previous coaches were Nick Saban and Les Miles who both believed in elite defense and ball control, rushing-oriented offense to win games. Before Burrow's unprecedented 2019 season, the most yards any LSU QB had passed for was 3347 (by Rohan Davey in 2001) and the most TDs any LSU QB had passed for was 28 (by Matt Mauck in 2003).

Michigan can't expect that kind of miraculous transformation in 1 off-season. But it *can* over 2 (max 3) seasons alter its approach.

For instance, Ohio State has moved away from Meyer's version of the power spread with inside zone to Ryan Day's version of the air raid with outside zone over 2-3 seasons. (JT Barrett wasn't the college passer Dwayne Haskins was.)

Or look at Alabama: Lane Kiffin changed the offense from what Greg McElroy (09-10) and AJ McCarron (11-13) ran to what Blake Sims ran in 2014. That was the turning point for Alabama. (Though Bama did need to rely on a McCarron type in 2015 with Jacob Coker.) But the change was permanent once Jalen Hurts became the QB.

Brian Griese

March 26th, 2021 at 12:58 PM ^

I agree with everything you said.  I am of the opinion Michigan has everything they need to compete at the highest level in terms of the actual program (coaching, talent, recruits, etc).  Unfortunatley, it seemed like for decades Michigan had no idea what to do against good teams with a mobile QB.  Once Don Brown figured that out (and kudos, he did) we are right back to where we were at with teams that use tempo, can pass block and throw the ball, which because of rule changes has become easier and easier.

It is just so frustrating to see the same thing over and over again and have coaching that refuses to embrace this offensive philosophy or implement defensive strategies that are designed to contain this type of offense (because you aren't going to stop it).  Maybe one day a coconut will fall on the right persons' head and we will see some real changes.  

chunkums

March 26th, 2021 at 1:57 PM ^

Absolutely. Brown's defense was built to stuff Meyer-style running spreads, and he did so effectively in 16 and before Barrett was injured in 17. It's easy to forget that JT had 90 total yards in 2017 before he was injured more than halfway into the 3rd quarter. Haskins came in and was more suited to the style that Day/Wilson had in mind and they haven't looked back since.

JonnyHintz

March 26th, 2021 at 6:23 PM ^

While I’m not exactly high on Gattis’ ability to run an elite offense, you have to consider the fact that he hasn’t really had the pieces to run an elite offense. The QB position has left much to be desired and without an elite QB, your ceiling as an offense becomes “good.” Good will never be good enough in the modern game. 
 

Doesn’t matter how good your receivers are if your QB can’t throw a deep ball, makes the wrong reads, can’t hit water if he fell out of a boat, is scared to run, etc. Modern offenses will always be handicapped by the abilities of the QB. And there’s not much any OC can do to turn an offense into an elite offense if you don’t have elite QB play. 
 

If you give Gattis an elite QB talent, then you’ll see his true merits as an OC. If you’re going to judge any OC on guys like Shea or Milton who, while talented guys, have pretty big limitations then you’re not going to come away impressed while comparing them to the elite offenses. 
 

The elite offenses in the country all have something in common. A QB that can go out there and do anything. Guys like Justin Fields, Mac Jones and Trevor Lawrence can make pretty much any throw they need to in addition to being able to make plays with their feet (Jones obviously a bit less than the other two). They don’t have a glaring issue in their game. 

TrueBlue2003

March 26th, 2021 at 6:43 PM ^

Nonsense.  While our QBs haven't been good enough to have elite offenses, they (Patterson) was plenty good enough to be a lot better than that offense was.  We scored 10 points on Iowa that year.  We ran right into the line over and over against a bad Army defense to score 14 points in regulation.  We only scored 21 against PSU. You need to be able to outscore teams and that performance against PSU was a massive underachievement given the O line, WR, etc talent on that team.  We didn't need to put up 60 like OU regularly does, just 30!

What we do on offense often makes no sense.  Go back to the UFRs for the past couple years and tell me this is a well-coached offense that is merely limited by bad QB play.

Brhino

March 26th, 2021 at 12:37 PM ^

Yeah well what does Nick Saban know about football?  He had one good year at Michigan State.  I mean, I haven't checked on him since then but I assume it's just more of the same.

LSAClassOf2000

March 26th, 2021 at 12:40 PM ^

Nick used a lot of words to state the obvious (at least if you've been around the sport or watching it for the last two decades now), although no estimate of how much the requisite talent would cost a team in the way of what bagmen would be able to provide, for he is in the SEC and there is undoubtedly a financial component to this. 

1VaBlue1

March 26th, 2021 at 1:09 PM ^

I don't think we'll ever see rules changes that would effectively even up the current disparity towards offense.  High scoring games sell more.  No advertiser wants to throw money at a game everyone knows will end 14-12 - whether that's from really good defense, or poor offense.

AWAS

March 26th, 2021 at 5:45 PM ^

Unfortunately, this is a metaphor for what is wrong in the state of Michigan, not just the football program.  Change is frowned upon. New ideas are summarily rejected or passively/aggressively impaired.  Old guard leaders and their followers live in and want to recreate the past.  The unwillingness to try new things causes open minded people to seek greener pastures.  The cycle becomes self-sustaining and reinforcing until irrelevancy looms.  

Blue@LSU

March 26th, 2021 at 12:54 PM ^

So what he's saying is that he moved from one system/philosophy where his superior 5* athletes were winning championships, to another system/philosophy where his superior 5* athletes win championships. Why didn't anyone else think of this? 

Frank Chuck

March 26th, 2021 at 1:08 PM ^

Well, when the older system with superior 5 star athletes wasn't cutting it for Bama...that should tell you something.

Oregon and Ohio State played each other in the National Championship Game in 2014. The two teams had similar systems. The team with the better talent won. In fact, Ohio State won by 20+ despite having a -3 turnover differential. When was the last time you saw a team overcome a -3 turnover differential to not just win but win comfortably?

Eng1980

March 26th, 2021 at 8:33 PM ^

Oregon lost its receiving corps on the way to the championship game.  I think 3 wide receivers and their primary tight end didn't even make it to the game (NCAA violations, team rule violations, and injuries.)  They were putting 3 running backs on the field with two split out wide by the end of the game.  OSU beat a terribly wounded Oregon team.  Sorry, I can't give OSU more credit than they deserve.

WolverineHistorian

March 26th, 2021 at 1:19 PM ^

My thoughts exactly. 

99% of the teams in college football can't get anywhere close to the kind of athletes he brings in every year.  Whatever "philosophy" it takes to win will be shockingly easy for him because he'll always have the endless loads of 5 stars to do it.  The rest of us don't have that luxury. 

Is he trying to give the rest of college football advice because he's so bored coaching a team who wins a national championship game 52-24?  Rich people problems. 

1VaBlue1

March 26th, 2021 at 1:05 PM ^

"2. It's not a big secret why Michigan has fallen behind. Michigan doesn't have an elite offense led by an elite QB."

I'll disagree with this assessment.  The reason Michigan has fallen behind is because it's coaches have decided not to follow the current trajectories of the game.  Since Harbaugh arrived, we've had a 5* in Shea Patterson and a 4.5* in Dylan McCaffrey - neither of whom were used for shit when it came to a modern spread offense.  Because Michigan does not use such a scheme!  

Enter Gattis...  We've seen the concepts he wants to run, but why doesn't he actually run them?  Is he so bad as an OC that he doesn't know how to call the offense he talks about, yet easily keeps his job?  Or is the 'Michigan Way' winning out?

My money says the 'Michigan Way' has won the day.  We know Harbaugh is a stubborn controller on the offensive side.  And we've seen the same things from them every season he's coached.  Gattis arrives preaching a fast paced, modern offense, and yet we still can't run a 2-minute drill; still run the clock down to 3 seconds before each snap; still force the ball between the tackles; still run play action on nearly every pass attempt; still don't use RB's as pass catching terrorists; still can't manage the clock or call decent TO's.

I support Harbaugh this season because I think he can fix this.  But I'll be watching, and I'll have a fairly quick trigger finger if I don't see the required changes to bring Michigan football into modern offensive times.  Having Don Brown's 2016 defense wasn't good enough in 2016, and it won't even be close in 2021.

EDIT: My disagreement stems from the 'elite QB' statement...

StirredNotShaken

March 26th, 2021 at 2:11 PM ^

I support Harbaugh as well because he's the coach and I want the team to be successful. However, I don't expect him to "fix this". I'm fully expecting to be frustrated with the team's performance against upper tier programs this season just like I have been for most of Harbaugh's tenure. What makes you think Harbaugh can fix this in light of his track record at Michigan, particularly since the end of the 2016 season? 

1VaBlue1

March 26th, 2021 at 5:20 PM ^

"What makes you think Harbaugh can fix this in light of his track record at Michigan, particularly since the end of the 2016 season?"

Nothing in particular...  I guess because he's still the coach and I want them to be successful?  I got nothing else.  The big coaching changes were on defense (by some necessity because Brown left), the offensive changes were a deck chair realignment.  So I don't know, man...

Frank Chuck

March 26th, 2021 at 2:15 PM ^

Thank you for this post. Upon further reflection, I agree.

We saw tempo and offensive diversity at Alabama when Gattis was an assistant. Why haven't we seen that at Michigan? The lack of tempo at Michigan is bullshit. Michigan should be trying for 16-18 offensive possession per game. Instead Michigan is happy to have 12-14 possessions per game. That alone is proof that Michigan wants to play complementary football. If we're being honest, Michigan Football is the equivalent of the college basketball mid-major that tries to slow down a game and make superior teams play a halfcourt game. (Better college basketball teams can generally play at any tempo and enjoy playing a full court game.)

And Michigan's clock management under Jim Harbaugh is Les Miles-ian. It ranges from "do they know time is winding down"  to "WTF are they doing?"

Also, I think the "Michigan Way" dominates because Jim Harbaugh doesn't know another way. The creativity we saw in San Fran seems to have been more a product of Greg Roman picking up the pistol offense from Nevada.

Consider this: with Andrew freaking Luck at QB Stanford's passing attack generated only 3338 yards and 32 TDs in 2010. In 2011 (under Shaw), Luck improved only slightly to 3500 yards and 37 TDs.

Uh, LOLWUT?

How does an offense which had a dominant OL, elite TEs, and the best QB prospect since Peyton Manning not pass for 4,000+ yards?

To put this into context, Brandon Weeden of Oklahoma State had 4200 yards in 2010 and 4700 yards in 2011.

At this point, I just have to assume that the "QB Whisperer" stuff is bullshit. (It might be difficult to admit but the evidence is overwhelming at this point.) A defensive coach in Nick Saban has done a better job of adapting to modern offensive football than a man who played the position at an elite level (for his time) in college. Even Ed "Cajun Hoke" Orgeron has done a better job of fielding elite offenses at LSU.

MRunner73

March 26th, 2021 at 2:46 PM ^

Lots of good points made by all three of you, above. Remember when the Lloyd Carr offense became stale and outdated? Enter Rich Rod and it seemed like the program was going to up to date; at that time. There was no QB to run his system in year one. Then he had a substandard defense so after a 4 and 0 start, he'd end up 5 and 7 in year 2 and 7 and 5 in year 3. Michigan tried but failed to keep up with times back then.

Yes, this is Harbaugh's year to fix this. I'll support him this year but the truth will known as they play out these games in Sept and then conference games in October. We'll know how things will go before the halfway mark of the season. I won't predict success or failure at this time because it is too soon to really know.

JonnyHintz

March 26th, 2021 at 6:37 PM ^

Well despite the lofty recruiting rankings associated with those two QBs, let’s look closer at their actual games. Recruiting rankings don’t tell the whole story. 
 

Shea was a good QB. But he couldn’t hit the deep ball to save his (or the team’s) life and he flat out refused (although possibly due to injury) to keep the ball on arc-reads. Two glaring issues in his game that undoubtedly would have taken this team and offense to a new level and put him in conversation as an elite QB. 
 

McCaffrey was/is young so it’s hard to judge how his career would have/will turn out. But he didn’t show an awful lot with his arm in his short playing time and he came in and left as a tall/skinny QB that got hurt when he got hit a few times. We never really got to see McCaffrey leading the offense so there’s an incomplete grade there in my opinion.
 

Now when Shea arrived, we installed quite a bit of RPO concepts and the arc-read concepts into our offense. So I’d disagree that we haven’t implemented some of that modern spread that people are talking about. Maintaining some of Harbaugh’s concepts has been an issue and could be creating a cohesion issue as well, but to say neither QB has been used for modern spread schemes is just inaccurate. 
 

Now the “Elite QB statement,” comes from the fact that all of our QBs have had a glaring issue in their game that has hindered the offense. If Shea could hit a deep ball and had kept on the read a few times, that’s an elite QB. If McCaffrey could have stayed healthy, he would have been a huge asset on offense. If Milton was more consistent and accurate,  you’re looking at a potential all-American. But alas, those issues existed and limited the offense. 

rice4114

March 27th, 2021 at 4:27 AM ^

But I'll be watching, and I'll have a fairly quick trigger finger if I don't see the required changes to bring Michigan football into modern offensive times. 

 

This will be the year I promise. Or the next year. Gattis just needs a 5 star qb with a year in the program. Well actually the year after that, I dont think our WR will be what we were hoping, but for sure the next year. Well maybe not, the oline will need time to gel so Im thinking it comes together the next... never mind we all just died of old age.

JacquesStrappe

March 26th, 2021 at 1:24 PM ^

The problem is that the mentality in Schmebechler Hall is still “That’s not the way Bo did it”. This is a shame because Yost’s point-a-minute teams were offensively innovative for their time. Now we are just offensive. Time to clean out the cobwebs of old ideas and maybe do some innovating of our own.

Vote_Crisler_1937

March 27th, 2021 at 7:16 PM ^

This, above all, is why I roll my eyes at all of the comments on this board begging for former Michigan players to come back and coach. Some are good options but above all this program needs new blood in the way Yost and Chrisler and Bo were new blood. In particular, replacing Bump Elliott. Whom this board would hire in a heartbeat, had it existed then, because as a player he won championships. 

CLord

March 26th, 2021 at 2:19 PM ^

This writing has been on Michigan's wall ever since 2007 when our team laden with NFL level talent was outschemed by App State and subsequently toyed with and obliterated by Dennis Dixon and Oregon's spread.  The very same team that would later beat Meyer and Tebow.

Michigan knew the Carr system was a dinosaur and took a stab at modernizing under RR, but fatefully didn't take into account that RR's disdain for defense and for anything other than smurfs on offense.

So in they walk two Michigan types in Hoke and Harbaugh, neither of whom correctly embraced the modernization of college football.  At this point all that is left for our program is the hope that where there has been immense pain, there must be some gain in the form of Harbaugh consuming a healthy cup of humility and diving 100% into embracing the modern college football philosophy Saban embraced earlier.

If he can, then with par for the course Michigan recruiting we should get back to at minimum giving Ohio State a decent game again for a change, and perhaps sniffing a Big Ten championship.

We'll see.

MGoStrength

March 26th, 2021 at 2:41 PM ^

“The game is different now. People score fast. So I changed my philosophy."

What a novel idea.  What were we doing 6 years ago?  Hmmm...

MRunner73

March 26th, 2021 at 2:53 PM ^

Even Big-10 teams are catching on to this concept; like Indiana's recent success. The perennial buckeyes are the prime example. Minnesota in 2019 was another. Maryland had success with the younger bro of Tua at QB, they sure looked explosive for a while.

Harbaugh has Gattis, who came from Alabama, but seemingly doesn't have the keys to the car to drive this offense where it needs to go. It's just a wait and see for us fans to know if the Michigan product will really be different this coming season-or not.

MGoStrength

March 26th, 2021 at 4:21 PM ^

Harbaugh has Gattis, who came from Alabama, but seemingly doesn't have the keys to the car to drive this offense where it needs to go

This is so hard for fans to assess.  Is the problem that JH is middling with the play calling or that the QBs simply can't do what the coaches want so they have to alter the play calling?  I honestly have no idea and can see what seems like both happening.  But, I feel like if hypothetically we ever found a QB that can read the defense, find open WRs, deliver accurate throws to them, and be able to effectively run an effective RPO then the offense would really take off.  It seems like neither Patterson nor Milton were able to do that every consistently under Gattis, which forced alterations to the scheme.  Was that Gattis' call or JH's?  Your guess is as good as mine, but wtf are you gonna do when the QB can't run the offense?

Spitfire

March 26th, 2021 at 4:02 PM ^

He's right of course. The part he left out is that this surge in the offense puts a premium on talent at the skill positions. He's mastered that part too. They might have 4 skill position guys go in the first round of the NFL draft this year