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Interesting, the champ will…

Interesting, the champ will either have the lowest ranked defense ever (Wash, 94th) or the lowest ranked offense ever (Mich, 72nd.)  (The lowest offense to ever win the CFP was Alabama in 2015, 45th.)

(No subject)

Michigan averaged 6.1 YPC…

Michigan averaged 6.1 YPC once you take out the sack and the kneel-downs.

5.6, actually.  227 yards become 241 on 43 carries.  The mildly concerning thing is that in the second half they only average 4.5 yards/carry (131 on 29 carries, 2 kneels removed) and they were not able to drive the length of the field.  Their two scores came on possessions that both started in PSU territory. (Allar fumble, late turnover on downs).  No full field drives.

The 247 PSU podcast guys…

The 247 PSU podcast guys said this very thing yesterday.  Galvanized is dangerous.

.

.

.  "Excuse me, have you ever…

.  "Excuse me, have you ever seen a six hundred page manifesto?  Do you want to?"

agreed

agreed

Good catch

Good catch

Good catch

Good catch

Stalions was more valuable…

Stalions was more valuable than Minter.

The article even sites the…

The article even sites the rule

cites.   Site is a noun.

Whoa, I just got around to…

Whoa, I just got around to listening to the episode.  As my comment above suggests, I just assumed that the OP BlueBarron wrote the error.  Not at all (Sorry, BB).  Just listened to the podcast and Brian Cook definitely is under the impression that UMass produced 5 sacks.  And, then Seth Fisher, oddly, agrees with him.  It's almost as if neither of them did any research.  What an odd thing to not fact check.  

Penn State has only allowed…

Penn State has only allowed 4 sacks all year.  The write-up is not correct.

Zinter's total is incorrect…

Zinter's total is incorrect.  +8?

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Ok, sorry.  Any thoughts on…

Ok, sorry for that attack.  Any thoughts on the play in question?  

By the way, Jake Butt is the…

By the way, Jake Butt is the BTN announcer who explains that this is a QB power.    

Ah, yes.  Short snippets on…

Ah, yes.  Short snippets on X.  I sure this is where Jamie Mac get his info as well.  Clearly didn't watch the next 15 seconds of analysis.

#6 Penn State vs Northwestern Football Game Highlights 9 30 2023 - YouTube

23:12, Announcer explains it's play action off QB power.

toughness...+1

toughness...+1

Ugh, I don't know why I even…

Ugh, I don't know why I even bother to listen to the Jamie Mac segment week after week.  The dude clearly doesn't watch the games (only reads box scores), and Brian and Seth don't watch the other Big Ten games. It's also clear that Jamie Mac doesn't listen to Seth's other podcasts.  Penn State did not run a fake kneel down.  Within the last week (maybe last 2 weeks) Seth said on a podcast that play action off QB power is what Denard did against Illinois.  I believe he called it QB oh no.  That's what Penn State did with backup QB Beau Pribula.  Pribula has 28 rushing attempts this year, and 13 pass attempts.  The dude is twice as likely to run than pass, so they baited Northwestern with a QB oh no.  The Big Ten Network announcer even pulled out his highlighter marker on replay, and showed how "they are running a QB power."  Second, Seth said Bryant threw the inexcusable interception.  It was Sullivan, not Bryant.  Brian and Seth don't watch the games, and Jamie doesn't know what he's looking at.

I don't think Penn State's…

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Very prescient 

Very prescient 

Why should Georgia have lost…

Why should Georgia have lost?  They passed for more yards per pass, ran for more yards per rush, and they outgained OSU pretty significantly (by 66 yards.)  Should have won by 10.

No.  He is not.  But he had…

No.  He is not.  But he had the fortune of coaching against some of the worst offenses in the country last year.  People foolishly believed he was good, not lucky.

Total Offense Rank 2022

Wyoming- 120th

Indiana- 110th

Virginia- 103rd

Chattanooga- FCS

Wisconsin- 91st

Iowa- 130th

Minnesota- 64th

Nebraska- 102th

Michigan St. - 97th

Purdue- 56th

Michigan- 24th

Northwestern- 107th

Miss. St - 62nd

 

The four teams Illinois played in the top half of FBS (Minnesota, Michigan, Purdue, Miss St)....They went 1-3

 

Abdul Carter missed a lot of…

Abdul Carter missed a lot of tackles...hmmm.  I wonder why.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/story/_/id/38341840/penn-state-abdul-carter-charged-marijuana-possession

MGoPodcast 12.27: Read the…

MGoPodcast 12.27: Read the Room | mgoblog

McCord is going to look…

McCord is going to look better/good over the next two games.  Then, he'll start on the road against ND and he'll stink.  He'll get benched mid-game in favor of Brown.  Brown will be the starter the rest of the season.

Michigan and Penn State didn…

Michigan and Penn State didn't seem to "fall" two spots, as much as FPI moved Notre Dame (2 wins already) and Oklahoma (huge blowout) above them.  Michigan and Penn State didn't look unimpressive, so fall doesn't land right on my ear. 

Tale of two blogs.  The…

Tale of two blogs.  The other day on Elevenwarriors, someone created a board thread listing the top 30 players in the Big Ten.  JJ McCarthy was absent.  Ohio State fans aren't buying him.  So, I had to jump in and mention that ESPN, 247, and On3 all put out their list of top 100 players heading into the year.  JJ was firmly in the top 30 of Big Ten players according to all three websites (something like, 7th, 9th, 17th in the Big Ten.)

But, this podcast was no more levelheaded than that Elevenwarriors board post.  At the end of this podcast, these guys debate who else would you take at QB above McCarthy, other than Caleb Williams.  They all seemed to think JJ is a clear top 2-4 QB nationally.  But, according to to ESPN, 247 and On3, that's way too high.  247 has him 9th best QB.  On3 has him 7th.  Espn has him 12th. 

Personally, I agree with On3 who had JJ 7th, but way down the list overall at # 70.  On3 has way fewer QBs on their list than the other sites.  I agree.  Outside of Williams and Maye, not a very exciting QB class.  JJ may be a top 7 QB, but it is a weak QB cohort in CFB this year.

When OSU made the playoff…

When OSU made the playoff without winning the Big Ten, they had non-conference cred.  They beat Oklahoma (2016) and Notre Dame (2022).  When Alabama made it as a non-champ, they beat Florida State in the non-con (2017).  Georgia beat Clemson (2021).  TCU...well, they had dick on their resume, but at least they beat a power 5 team (Colorado).  Michigan's resume wouldn't stack up if they don't have a Big Ten Championship.  

Utah gets a lot of respect…

Utah gets a lot of respect and Whittingham is highly regarded.  But, I'd like to argue that this respect is undeserved.  But, please note, that this is definitely more of a critique against the PAC 12 than Utah.  It's not Utah/Whittingham's fault that they are overrated.  It's the pollsters/analysts who overvalue their PAC 12 competition.

Utah just looks good since they play in the PAC 12 and the PAC 12 is quite bad.  When going up against non-PAC teams, they get exposed.  Utah hasn't won a game against a non-PAC power 5 team since 2017.  In 2017, they beat WVU in a bowl game.  Since then, they lost to Northwestern (2018), Texas (2019), Ohio State (2021), Florida (2022), and Penn State (2022).   They were ranked higher than Northwestern, Texas, Florida, and Penn State, yet lost against all of them.  They were ranked 11th when they lost by 4 touchdowns to unranked Texas.  They were ranked in the top 10 (#7) when they lost to unranked Florida.

My point is Utah gets these oddly high rankings by winning games in the PAC, but the PAC is not good. 

Since joining the PAC 12 in 2011, Utah has never beaten a ranked team from the Big 12, SEC, Big 10, or ACC.  

I do think there is a…

I do think there is a problem with the asymmetry.  The data is asymmetric because Alex.Drain is inconsistent.  When a researcher/analyst interprets/codes their data with bias, it's a problem.  Here's an example.

Adisa Isaac had a pretty darn good year last year.  4th most qb pressures among B1G DL, 4th most TFL among B1G DL.  He led PSU in tackles for loss.  He's projected as a 2nd-4th round pick.  He ruptured his Achilles in 2021, didn't play that year. So he had a pretty nice year only one year removed from major injury.  Shouldn't a second year removed from injury lead Alex.Drain to be optimistic about a leap?  No, they wrote "Can he become a dominant, every-down pass rusher who can also be trusted against the run? Adisa Isaac probably isn't going to become that, though he was a decent player as a starting EDGE a year ago."  No hint of optimism. Isaac is what he is. Decent.

Yet, for Braiden McGregor, Alex.Drain wrote, "it's reasonable to expect a sizable step forward and the same could be said for Braiden McGregor with another year removed from his HS injury."  So, an extra year removed for injury leads to optimism in one case, but not the other???

One more example...Alex.Drain cites PPF when it suits them, and diminishes it when it doesn't.  To paraphrase.  "I wasn't impressed with JTT and PFF backs me up.  Yeah, I know PFF loved Chop Robinson, but I don't agree, think he's a bit overrated."  What's the point of even citing PFF if you are that inconsistent?

I disagree with a number of…

I disagree with a number of things you said, but I'll try to be polite and just say we have a difference of opinion.   

I'm not a Joe Moorhead fan, and I don't think he was as good at PSU as most people do.  But, I will say, in my opinion, that his game plan against OSU 2016 was absolutely why PSU won the B1G and Harbaugh's 2016 game plan against OSU was absolutely why Michigan did not win the B1G.  Moorhead had the best running back in the country, yet he knew that his O-line wasn't going to get the job done against OSU's excellent D-Line.  He only ran Saquon 12 times.  He just kept chucking deep balls.  PSU hit 6 plays over 20 yards (and two other 19 yard gains.)  Moorhead forgo the option of sustained drives and kept swinging for the fences. (People on this board think that game was a fluke, but that was the game plan).  Harbaugh, on the other hand, chose to run the ball into OSU's excellent D-Line 43 times for 2 yards a carry.  Michigan only had 2 plays of 20 plus yards.  

For the record, I am aware that Speight had a broken collar bone (or something) and the deep ball probably wasn't a great option.  So, I'm not saying Harbaugh had a lot of options...but 43 carries for 91 yards?  Recipe for an L.

Three different PSU…

Three different PSU offensive coordinators have beaten Harbaugh (Moorhead, Rahne, Ciarrocca).  However, Pry was the defensive coordinator for all three wins.

I don't really get peoples', dare I say, reverence? for Joe Moorhead.  Ok/mediocre at Miss St.  And, Oregon's offense (total yards per game) was better before he got there (39th) and after he left (6th).  They were 49th and 51st in Moorhead's two seasons.  Not a big believer in Moorhead.  Even PSU proved you don't need Moorhead to beat Michigan or win 11 games.

Fair point about "breakout"…

Fair point about "breakout" expectations (I read plenty of that here)

I gotta say, Alex.Drain's DL write-up reeked of bias on exactly this point.  A "optimism for me, none for thee" write-up.  For instance, 4 times in his Michigan portion he expressed that a jump, leap or breakout was expected:  "then a player in Derrick Moore where it's reasonable to expect a sizable step forward (1) and the same could be said (2) for Braiden McGregor with another year removed from his HS injury...Kris Jenkins was already a quality player last year and now we're hearing rumblings about another leap forward  (3)...If Graham also takes a leap, as is reasonable to expect (4) like with Derrick Moore"

Moore- reasonable to expect leap

McGregor- resonable to expect leap

Jenkins- probable leap, cause there are rumblins'

Graham- reasonable to expect leap

But, for OSU, it was all skepticism: "JTT could make another jump and get to Chase Young/Bosa territory, but he needs to actually do it- and do it against quality competition- before I coronate him (1)....Kenyatta Jackson and Caden Curry, while talented, are young (both second year) and unproven (2)... Ty Hamilton was next in terms of usage, a nominal returning starter, but I was also not terribly convinced about his prowess...I wouldn't be shocked if one or two make a leap to being a legitimate problem, but we shall see if they get there."  

JTT- Need proof

Jackson & Curry- unproven

Hamilton- overrated

Overview- possible leap, but need proof

 

Not immobile.  They ran…

Not immobile.  They ran Allar a bit at the end of the year.  Small sample size (18 attempts), but had better YPC than Clifford.  Two rushes over 10 yards.  Not fast.  Not a threat.  But, not immobile.

I listen to a lot of 11W and…

I listen to a lot of 11W and OSU 247 podcasts.  Over last couple of years, when the hosts discuss expectations for the OSU defense (player development), they claim X player will have a breakout year, X player will make a leap, etc...You can tell by their language and tone that the podcasters lack conviction.  They don't really REALLY buy what they're saying about most defensive players.  But, I'm a bit intimidated by the hype/podcast discussion about the younger Styles.  Seems like true confidence for once.  Seems to be pretty universal opinion (with conviction) that he's going to be very good.

Also Phil Steele ranked…

Also Phil Steele ranked Michigan’s backs #1 in the country for the record. 

So did Athlon

So did CBS (Sallee)

So did Bleacher Report

So did 247 

This feels a little click bait-y on Mgoblog Roundtable's part.  If anyone is ranking PSU higher, it's certainly a minority/fringe position.  Why give fringe opinions oxygen?  Seems like they are just trying to fill airtime.

Jenkins made the top 100…

Jenkins made the top 100 list on 247

Not coincidentally,  247…

Not coincidentally,  247 also dropped their top 100 players list today

 

https://247sports.com/college/penn-state/LongFormArticle/college-football-2023-best-players-rankings-caleb-williams-marvin-harrison-brock-bowers-drake-maye-214272512/

 

Looks like Michigan, Penn State, and Ohio State all have 5

I think Illinois' "success"…

I think Illinois' "success" last year was quite a mirage.  They beat an FCS team (Chattanooga), a 7-6 Group of 5 team (Wyoming), the worst team in the ACC (Virginia), worst team in the Big Ten (Northwestern), two teams that were so bad they fired their coaches (Wisconsin, Nebraska), the team with the worst offense in America (Iowa), and Minnesota. 

Honestly, I think Minnesota is their only decent win, and they still managed to lose to two B1G East bottom-dwellers (Indiana, MSU.)  

 

I notice that two posters…

I notice that two posters came to Alex's defense, but neither actually defends Alex or Alex's poorly researched take.  Both Matty and D.I.S acted as if I praised Franklin, but this is called a straw man argument.  No one mentioned Franklin.  All I did was point out that the poorly informed Alex.Drain didn't do his/their homework about B1G running backs.

Alex.Drain consistently…

Alex.Drain consistently feeds this site bad info about Penn State, so it's expected that this site's readers are down on them too.  It doesn't seem like he does his homework.  I think Brian Cook put too much on Alex.Drain's plate and he doesn't have time to be thorough.  It's a big job previewing all opponents.

For instance, A.D on PSU:

both guys register as "fast in a straight line" sorts of players without displaying the broken tackle or juking ability that truly elite backs show.

PFF, on why Kaytron Allen was the 9th highest graded freshman in the country last year, behind Will Johnson, and slightly ahead of Mason Graham:

The former four-star recruit forced a missed tackle on 27% of his attempts this season, the fourth-best rate in the Big Ten.

They've had the best WR room…

They've had the best WR room in America for the last two years when they played Michigan. All I have to do is look up at the scoreboard to know that didn't really matter. 

Oh, their WR room mattered.  Their WRs made plenty of great plays against Michigan the last two years.  OSU has been manhandled so badly in the trenches these last two years, without those WRs they likely lose both games 42-7.  

In the past 6 matchups:

In the past 6 matchups:

Penn State is 0-6 vs. Ohio State

Penn State is 3-3 vs. Michigan.  

OSU can dismiss PSU.  But, Michigan, which is 1-2  in their last two trips to Beaver Stadium, probably shouldn't.  

Let the DISRESPEKT fuel your…

Let the DISRESPEKT fuel your fire, Jesse.

He did. And was ultimately blinded by rage and jealousy.  He coached like a maniac on New Year's Eve. 

Let the DISRESPEKT fuel your…

Let the DISRESPEKT fuel your fire, Jesse.

He did. And was ultimately blinded by rage and jealousy.  He coached like a maniac on New Year's Eve. 

You found out all right. …

You found out, all right.  Riley was the right choice...obviously.

Whittingham can coach…

Whittingham can coach circles around Frames Janklin.  

He can.  He just chooses not to, right?

I disagree.  If you look at…

I disagree.  If you look at Franklin's recruiting classes that have had time to enter the draft (2015-2019 signees), the average PSU class rank over those years was 13.4 nationally.  Over those drafts (2017-2021) when the 2015-19 classes could go pro, Penn State ranked 11th nationally in # of draft picks.  Seems like he develops and produces talent commensurate with his recruiting.  It's teams like Texas (26th in draft picks) or FSU (20th) that are failing to develop their players.