Michigan win/loss record prediction thread
August 31st, 2021 at 9:27 PM ^
Wisconsin and PSU are sure losses because those games are on the road and those teams have comparable or better talent to Michigan. Jim Harbaugh has not won those games. I'll be happy if he does, but he won't.
It's great that people are optimistic, but I'm not -- at least not for 2021. The 2022 team will be much improved.
August 31st, 2021 at 8:46 PM ^
This is where I'm at too. I don't think there's any way M beats Wisc and PSU on the road. OSU is what it is. One could argue to swap WMU and Rutgers perhaps but I'll go with what you've got for auto wins (I'm actually a little worried about WMU b/c it's an opener and we have little reason to trust these coaches to NOT turn an early game into Army 2019, Part II).
I'd argue we should go 5-2 the rest of the way with likely losses to Wash and IU. But I could see Maryland, MSU beating M even if we steal one from Wash or IU.
9-3 is wildest dreams. 8-4: OK squeezed the most blood one could reasonable expect from this rock. 7-5 is a push. 6-6 is not good but could get a bowl game to develop the young guys and get a 7th win. A losing record is death for the staff, IMO
I also agree with an above poster re: 7-5 or 8-4 with a bowl loss. M will draw a decent-good team but JH has not produced much in bowls, mostly IMO b/c the top end guys (Dax Hill, AHutchinson) will not play in it.
August 31st, 2021 at 10:06 PM ^
"...even if we steal one from Wash or IU..."
So if a team beats us for the first time since the 80s, it's nearly an automatic loss?
I give the team 8-9 wins in the regular season.
Teams we "should" beat (8): WMU, NIU, Rutger, Neb, Northwestern, MSU, Indiana, Maryland.
I think it's possible we beat one of: Washington, Wisconsin, Penn State to get 9 wins.
I also think it's possible we win a game in the second list and lose one in the first list.
It's absolutely possible to install a competent defense in one offseason using the players we currently have on the roster. If the offensive play calling makes sense/isn't abysmal/actually utilizes the offensive weapons, I believe we are going to experience a turn-around year.
September 1st, 2021 at 1:33 AM ^
If the offensive play calling makes sense/isn't abysmal/actually utilizes the offensive weapons,
a lot of ppl this time of year want to build a happy little bridge of “IF” to 9-3. That’s fine but I’m not gonna drive over it.
just recognize 2 things:
- the bridge of “IF” is NOT leading to 11-1 like many years in the past. It’s leading to 3 losses. Lots of things need to go right to get to 9-3
- No one actually stands on these bridges -IWO, with real stakes and so many ifs I’m not sure many people would predict 9-3 knowing that that “gun to your head” will be after the season
also re: IU. In 5 of the last 6 match ups against IU, M either lost or won by fewer than 2 scores. They have a better QB situation, better OL and defensive secondary. Likely better LBers and more depth on the DL. This is essentially the same M roster that got their doors blown off by IU last year. Ififififif all the shit that led to that loss got fixed that’s a toss up game. I’m done assuming by default that a JH coached team is competent enough to fix them all in one year.
September 1st, 2021 at 12:58 AM ^
How in the hell is Penn State a SURE LOSS? They were not any good last year either, and I don't see why they improved NOTICEABLY more than us. That's a wild take.
September 1st, 2021 at 2:04 AM ^
I think the best arguments re PSU are made by others above and below but I’ll go another route.
PSU ended winning their last 4 including beating M of course. They were within 2 scores losing to OSU and lost by one @ IU early. Their fans are doing exactly what we are rn: talking themselves into 8-4,9-3, “we have more or equal talent that all but one team”-ing themselves into raising expectations to a normal year.
and I don't see why they improved NOTICEABLY more than us
Having lost to those dude at home by 10 last year puts the burden on us to show why Michigan got noticeably better than PSU. I doubt that we did and now we’re on the road.
August 31st, 2021 at 8:10 PM ^
9-3, losses to PSU, Wisconsin, OSU. Maybe switch IU in for PSU or Wisconsin.
Will be back to the "norm" for Harbaugh, for better or worse.
August 31st, 2021 at 8:11 PM ^
I think 7-5 with losses to both UW's, Indiana or MSU, PSU and OSU.
I could definitely see that record producing another zombie Harbaugh year that puts the program further behind the 8ball.
August 31st, 2021 at 8:16 PM ^
4-8?
I fashion myself as one of the biggest football cynics on this board but even 4-8 is too pessimistic to me.
This team has enough talent to at least go 6-6.
August 31st, 2021 at 8:32 PM ^
I see psu, wisc, and osu as definite losses.
Northwestern and Indiana are most likely losses.
at MSU, at Nebraska, and Washington are tossups.
I can see our record being anywhere from 4-8 to 6-6.
September 1st, 2021 at 9:01 AM ^
I don't think UM is in for a good year, but if they lose to THIS Nebraska team, Harbaugh needs to be shitcanned immediately.
Illinois showed that you can beat them with marginal talent and by just doing something slightly different (coaching? adjustments?) on both sides of the ball. Nebraska showed they'll hand you the game, by any means necessary. They make mental mistakes, they are prone to penalties, and have zero running game supported by an at best anemic passing game.
Contain Martinez, make him throw and you beat Nebraska. Lose to them, and you are a fucking idiot.
August 31st, 2021 at 8:16 PM ^
They come out and look great and be 5-1 and everyone will be saying we’re back then we’ll go 2-4 or 3-3 to end the season again.
Gun to my head I’ll say 8-4
August 31st, 2021 at 8:17 PM ^
Going to split the difference between 8-5 and 10-3 and say 9-4 with loses to Washington, Penn State, Wisconsin and Ohio State and a bowl win. 8-4 regular season Michigan should get a decent matchup and this team seems like one that should have most of its players for the bowl game. If I’m Harbaugh I just try and get to next season because looking at the schedule it’s easily a 10 win schedule if not more.
August 31st, 2021 at 8:18 PM ^
We go on a helluva run to start the season, unexpectedly taking all of the first eight games, with an emphatic thumping of Sparty included.
then a loss to Indiana brings us back to earth.
we rebound against penn state only to drop the next game somewhat unexpectedly to a moribund Maryland team.
we play our asses off for 3.5 quarters against OSU only to lose on some bullshit. And they tack on an extra score as time expires to rub it in.
we ride the roller coaster of emotions per usual, feel like season is ultimately a failure but showed promise, retain harbaugh, rinse, repeat.
or we go 7-5 or some shit? Who knows, football is dumber than we think and somehow Brady Hoke went 11-1 as a head coach here one season?
August 31st, 2021 at 8:20 PM ^
4-7(things get so bad the OSU game is canceled)
August 31st, 2021 at 8:21 PM ^
9-3 going into a 2022 season where we only lose Hawkins and Vastardis to graduation if the super duper COVID seniors decide to stick around.
August 31st, 2021 at 8:29 PM ^
They are going to lose a lot more than that
August 31st, 2021 at 9:28 PM ^
Yeah, guys always go pro and transfer, but this isn't going to be a 2016 or 2019 situation where most of the roster turns over.
August 31st, 2021 at 8:22 PM ^
6-6 or 7-5.
Then we’ll repeat last offseason all over again. It’s gonna be fun.
August 31st, 2021 at 8:22 PM ^
7-5 regular season. Per Vegas we are favored against all but Wisconsin, PSU and OSU. But we are heavy underdogs in those 3 and we are only marginally favored in 6 of the games. We win the heavy favorites (WMU, NIU and Rutgers) and go 4-2 in the slight favorites.
August 31st, 2021 at 8:25 PM ^
this guarentees harbaughs firing so i would not be disappointed if this happened. But i love michigan football too much and yes im drinking the kool aid. I say 9-3 with an upset of ohio state
August 31st, 2021 at 8:25 PM ^
Instead of thinking about win/loss, l will enjoy Pink Floyd Echoes with David and Richard
August 31st, 2021 at 8:28 PM ^
I feel like we are a 7-5 team but I'm going 8-4. I think the offense will be good. I like having the brainy QB who may not have the NFL arm. Defense will be a work in progress but we are going to be competitive all year.
August 31st, 2021 at 8:29 PM ^
THIS IS MICHIGAN FERGODSAKES.
6-6.
August 31st, 2021 at 8:31 PM ^
10-2… Not buying Indiana, Penn State or anybody else other than OSU. I’m inclined to say 11-1… If anybody thinks last year was some harbinger of things to come, they are not really paying attention to the talent on this team. Especially on the offensive side of the ball and where it counts defensively. The front seven will make up for the weakness in the secondary. I also think Dax Hill will be the playmaker we need back there. Glad we aren’t playing Iowa. To me they are the best team in the West. This year feels like one of those years where Michigan sneaks up like 97 and 06…
August 31st, 2021 at 9:13 PM ^
When is the last time this program went 11-1? I'll sit and wait for you to research and get back to me.
August 31st, 2021 at 10:31 PM ^
Actually, once every 10 years. 1997. 2006. 2016. (Oh wait, never mind - First Down Fuckeyes!).
But they were still one questionable spot away from 11-1.
What exactly was your point?
August 31st, 2021 at 10:57 PM ^
My point is that the program hasn't gone 11-1 in 15 years and that was three coaches ago. So to expect 11-1 going into a season after a 2-4 season seems much more than optimistic, it seems delusional. Believe me, I wish I could convince myself to be that optimistic. I really do and I used to have that optimism for the program every year. I miss those days. But I have lived through the last 15 years and I've seen enough bad football to know what to expect. Sorry my view doesn't align with yours (or what I think your view is). I truly hope you end up being right.
November 30th, 2021 at 10:19 AM ^
The fact that Michigan is 11-1 now is hilarious.
August 31st, 2021 at 8:37 PM ^
7-5 with injuries to key players
9-3 if we stay healthy
Losses to OSU, PSU, Wisconsin; possibly also to IU and MD
August 31st, 2021 at 8:44 PM ^
Assuming the team stays healthy, 11-1. Victory over OSU. I think Cade has a really special year.
August 31st, 2021 at 9:23 PM ^
I remember when I was like you. I respect the optimism but just know we are in for PAIN. Again.
August 31st, 2021 at 9:44 PM ^
False hope is still hope to the weak minded.
August 31st, 2021 at 10:26 PM ^
Username does not check out :(
November 30th, 2021 at 10:37 AM ^
What does Gardner FTW win for nailing this? Spot on my man.
August 31st, 2021 at 8:45 PM ^
Breaking the season’s into quarters:
Games 1-3: Beat WMU, Lose to Washington, Beat UNI 2-1
Games 4-6: Beat Rutgers, Lose to Wisky, Beat Nebraska. 2-1
Games 7-9: Lose to NW, Beat MSU, Lose to Indiana. 1-2
Games 10-12: Lose to PSU, Tossup with Maryland, Lose to OSU. 0-3 or 1-2
That puts us at 5-7 or 6-6. The other tossup will be Indiana, so potentially there team goes as good as 7-5 IMO.
Though I’d gladly take some crazy run the gauntlet kind of season.
September 1st, 2021 at 1:08 AM ^
Lose to Northwestern?!
August 31st, 2021 at 8:51 PM ^
Didn't we do this already?
Like all offseason!
September 1st, 2021 at 9:07 AM ^
We did. And we'll do it at least 76 more times.
Almost every thread is at least a low-key "How Ya Think We Do This Year" kind of thing. Whether it's one of those clickbait articles some guy found while scouring the internets for Michigan news, such as, "Sam the Eskimo, of the Nunavut News Says Michigan Will Win it All This Year" or "Our Fourth String Long Snapper Says the Defense is like WOW!"--it's all the same thing and it all turns into a season prediction thread.
And where do guys find the time to canvass the internets for articles like that, BTW?
August 31st, 2021 at 8:52 PM ^
I say beat it troll.
August 31st, 2021 at 8:54 PM ^
I'm going to be uncharacteristically optimistic and say we'll go 6-0, get the hype train rollin' and then the following 4 games against MSU, Northwestern, Indiana and PSU will be 50/50 tossups. I think we'll win 2 out of the 4, lose to Maryland and then as a point of redemption, we'll beat OSU.
BKFinest it.
August 31st, 2021 at 8:55 PM ^
10-3 with a win against a respectable opponent in a good bowl game. Floor is 8-5 for me.
August 31st, 2021 at 8:58 PM ^
No chance M goes 4-8. 11-2 is more likely than that.
On that note, I'll say 11-2 with a Bowl win. Want so badly to pick M to beat Osu but I have to see that to believe it at this point. Loss at Wisconsin, Ws everywhere else on the schedule.
Go Blue.
August 31st, 2021 at 9:01 PM ^
6-6 floor, 10-2 ceiling
I will go with an optimistic 9-3
August 31st, 2021 at 9:06 PM ^
3-1 going into Wisconsin with a loss to UW and closer than we'd like wins against everybody else. I expect to lose to Wisconsin but the rest of the season hangs on how we lose it. If it's close then I think the guys hang together and could pull out a 7-5/8-4 finish. If it's a beat down then I see guys checking out just enough to snowball to a 4-8/5-7 finish. I hope so bad I'm proven to be a pessimist and we go 10-2 or 11-1, but I just don't see it.
August 31st, 2021 at 9:13 PM ^
8-4, losses to Washington, Wisconsin, Indiana, and OSU. But maybe a bowl win!
August 31st, 2021 at 11:02 PM ^
You see a win at PSU?
August 31st, 2021 at 11:15 PM ^
Yeah, it'll be a noon kick-off. Easy peasy.
August 31st, 2021 at 9:16 PM ^
5-7/6-6. I really hope I am wrong but they were disastrous last season.
I have to chuckle at so many of you penciling in MSU as a win. They were a giant, steaming turd last year and yet Harbaugh still managed to blow that one. It is, in no small part, for that reason that I have little to no optimism regarding this upcoming season.