January 2nd, 2024 at 1:14 AM ^
BET.
January 2nd, 2024 at 12:59 AM ^
Same on Draftkings
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:00 AM ^
It'll be fun to watch Washington learn to cope with a defense for the first time.
January 2nd, 2024 at 6:10 AM ^
Washington just put up 38 on the #10 defense in the country in Texas, and also did damage consistently against good defenses like Oregon's. That offense absolutely scares me and is probably as good, if not better, than the past couple of OSU offenses UM has faced during this 3-game win streak because of their depth at WR as well as their solid running game. It'll be a big task for UM to slow them down.
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:02 AM ^
Let’s not TCU this game. Our defense should put Penix to the ground more than Alabama
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:11 AM ^
Should there be some concern that Washington won the Joe Moore award this year? But then again, UW have one of the worst pass defenses in college football...
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:17 AM ^
A bit. They're very good. A pass rush is going to be a tough ask, and Penix with time is extremely dangerous. He profiles out as lefty CJ Stroud, but the key for us against Stroud (especially with a bunch of excellent receivers in 21) was pressure.
Still, they haven't played us yet. I'd really like to see what the SP+ profile is of the defenses they've played.
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:42 AM ^
Ask and ye shall receive (All SP+ numbers pre-Army/Navy and the bowls):
#10 Texas
#19 Oregon (x2)
#27 Utah
#32 Oregon State
#43 Arizona
#48 Michigan State
#70 Boise State
#77 WSU
#85 Cal
#94 ASU
#109 USC
#117 Tulsa
#118 Stanford
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:59 AM ^
Helpful.
Not particularly encouraging that Penix eviscerated the top defense there, #10 Texas.
We're not likely to luck into the same team that scored 15 points on the #94 ASU team this year.
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:40 AM ^
I agree, although even if UW were to put up 37 against Michigan -- not likely -- Michigan can score 38 against the porous UW D. I'm tempted to call Texas's numbers fools' gold, except that when you play in the Big 12, any good defensive stats need to be taken seriously. :)
January 2nd, 2024 at 6:12 AM ^
Their line is really solid but I also think they got the Moore award in part because they weathered a bunch of injuries and issues throughout the year and still held together. Objectively, I don't think they had a better offensive line than, say, Georgia did. UM won it the last couple of years because they were road pavers, while this UW team won it more for their pass pro and general consistency.
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:17 AM ^
Gotta beat Penix.
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:39 AM ^
Prevent Penix from staying erect in the pocket. Penetration of the O line will be essential, and we must prevent Penix from spraying balls all over the field. Tight, latex-like coverage and keeping man-to-man on the tight end will prove crucial.
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:47 AM ^
You’re no RG3
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:02 AM ^
Cum on...Penix isn't that hard to beat.
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:13 AM ^
It’s weird, but I’ve heard the more you beat Penix the harder it gets.
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:16 AM ^
At a certain point it becomes painful to watch
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:18 AM ^
That's what she said.
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:37 AM ^
What about a Jr. Penix?
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:03 AM ^
Pretty good for the first all-Big-Ten CFP final ever.
Minter's got his work cut out for him, but I expect he'll be up to it.
January 2nd, 2024 at 2:38 AM ^
90% Zone +10% Man= Profit
January 2nd, 2024 at 7:45 AM ^
1. Collect Underpants
2. 90% Zone + 10% Man
3. ?????
4. Profit
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:04 AM ^
I have a question, is Michigan flying directly to Houston or going home first which would seem like unnecessary travel.
Anyone know?
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:07 AM ^
Will go back to Ann Arbor tomorrow, probably...
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:12 AM ^
Thanks VaBlue, I imagine they'd have to turn around within a couple of days and fly to Houston to get acclimated there.
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:16 AM ^
Shouldnt be too much different then two consecutive road games. They get an extra day as well. Would be interesting to see what Washington does as its even more travel.
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:23 AM ^
UW is on quarters, so they actually have class starting on Wednesday. Michigan classes resume next Wednesday instead. If Michigan is returning to Ann Arbor, I assume UW will have to return to Seattle.
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:39 AM ^
In the postgame presser when asked about his future (of course because he is asked about it constantly by breathless reporters), Harbaugh said that his future is to get "on a flight back to Ann Arbor".
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:01 AM ^
In the presser after the game JH said they are heading back to A2.
(In response to a stupid question from the Wall Street Journal asking if he’s going to the NFL. Yes, seriously that’s what they asked.)
January 2nd, 2024 at 7:54 AM ^
Have to go home to pack clean underwear and socks. Jobs not done.
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:05 AM ^
Ticket prices just got a whole lot more affordable.
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:05 AM ^
4.5 is one of those (Bill Simmons parlance) Vegas Zone pointspreads.
My guess is that it'll get down to 3.5 relatively soon (4.5 is too goofy a number, it's not staying there) and stick there.
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:20 AM ^
You're drinking the Kool-Aid. :) I don't know if Bill C. will update SP+ with the results of the bowl games, but after Week 14, Michigan would have been ~13 point favorite ites against UW. Maybe those lines move a bit, but the -4.5 thing is crazy, especially with UW's running back (get well soon, kid) leaving the game limping on the final play.
Unless you think there's going to be plenty of public action on UW at +4.5, and Vegas is just trying to make a killing, I don't think this line can stick anywhere near where it is. I said on another thread that I expected Michigan to be double-digit favorites, and I'm still surprised they're not. I wonder if somebody just put in a ridiculous line to get out there first, and things will correct themselves overnight.
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:23 AM ^
I didn't state any sort of opinion on who I thought would win (or who I would bet).
I'm trying to see it from the book's POV. I'd have guessed a 4 point-line. I'd be surprised if that's not (within 1 point) what it is 6 days from now.
We'll see - the Vegas spread doesn't really matter anyway.
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:28 AM ^
Fair -- but what makes you think this should be a four-point line? UW can't stop anybody. I don't see any reason, looking at the games, to think that UW is any better than the computer numbers suggest. Unless you think Zak Zinter is worth a touchdown -- and I love Zak as much as anybody, but no -- I just don't see the logic here. You're talking about a team that beat Arizona State 15-7 (and got lucky to do so), Oregon State 22-20, Washington State 24-21... they're not an unstoppable juggernaut.
Michigan has beaten 3 teams this year that are better than UW, and none of them were within 4.5 points.
Edit: I see you answered that below. I'm not sure I agree with your analysis, but I won't ask you to repeat it. :)
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:34 AM ^
Sure, your last sentence is technically correct. But consider this. Let's say Alabama starts OT with the ball. They kick a FG instead of going for it on 4th down, then Michigan scores a TD. Michigan wins, same result, but it's now a 3 point win instead of 7.
It's the same exact football game, of course - but if the spread had been anywhere from 3.5 to 6.5, the coin toss is literally the difference between who covers!
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:37 AM ^
I think this makes sense and, if you looked at past opponents at a neutral site, you would definitely favour both Alabama and Ohio State (Marv version) over Washington. Hard to say about Penn State.
Their record this season versus an average Pac 10 doesn't inspire a lot of confidence once they play anyone with an actual defense.
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:54 AM ^
UW's defense doesn't suck. It's not elite but efficiency wise they're pretty solid. It's just they led so much and have so many plays that the unadjusted numbers look terrible.
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:42 AM ^
SP+ is opponent-adjusted, and according to SP+, they're seven spots worse than Minnesota.
I've also seen both Oregon and Texas receivers run through them with nothing except quarterback accuracy stopping them.
I am not the least bit worried about the UW defense.
January 2nd, 2024 at 4:26 AM ^
In the last two big games, UW was a ~9 point dog to Oregon and a ~4.5 dog to Texas (going off memory, but that's ballpark correct.)
So there's probably an on-top-adjustment to the fancystats numbers to get to the "Vegas Zone Spread".
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:07 AM ^
S&P has us as two TD favorites. We're still decoupled from S&P in a weird way, line wise. Because the public is betting against us after sign bullshit? Vegas is making an absolute killing on us.
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:17 AM ^
What are the relative rankings? What's the top defense Washington has faced?
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:23 AM ^
Probably Texas
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:28 AM ^
Looking at the raw numbers on sports reference, the top D they faced by points per game (and only that stat) was Oregon, twice of course.
Texas is a close second. Didn't look like any other teams were particularly close to that; Utah might have been the third best.
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:21 AM ^
The CFP isn't the regular season --- I've always viewed it as a mini-season in its own right. It's all 5 weeks removed from the regular season.
As such, lines being decoupled from the SP, I don't see that as surprising.
Besides, on the other analytics metric (FEI): Washington is rated higher than Alabama (Alabama is higher than Washington in SP). Michigan had a 1-score OT win over Alabama. A pointspread in that 3.5-4 range for Washington seems appropriate (from the Vegas POV) to me.
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:24 AM ^
FEI sucks though.
January 2nd, 2024 at 1:27 AM ^
Fair enough if you believe it "sucks", but per everything I've seen, FEI and SP+ rank very competitively from a predictive POV.
January 2nd, 2024 at 10:21 AM ^
Yeah. Early in the bowl season someone had a thread about how well FEI, SP+, etc were doing predicting the outcomes and fei was doing the best.
January 3rd, 2024 at 1:35 AM ^
No offense, but given that with opt outs, transfers, etc. so many bowl teams (maybe even the majority) look nothing like they did in the regular season, I wouldn't give much credence to which ranking system did better predicting the bowls. At this point an accurate bowl prediction would be more luck than anything else.
What would be interesting would be a comparison of how those systems did predicting the regular season...