Michigan #2 in Kenpom POSBANG

Submitted by mrjblock24 on February 27th, 2021 at 3:11 PM

Title says it all 

San Diego Mick

February 27th, 2021 at 3:22 PM ^

4 B1G teams in the top 7, yeah Baylor is not in as good a conference and I don't think it's as close as some try to portray it. 

Gonzaga playing cream puffs for 2 1/2 !months will hurt them eventually.  

Like I've said, I really like our chances. 

plaidflannel

February 27th, 2021 at 4:21 PM ^

KenPom has Baylor as 6 point favorites tonight.  If they win by more than 6, then their efficiency margin will go up and they could pass us.  If they win but the margin is within 6 points or they lose, then their efficiency margin will go down and they won't pass us.

There's more going on than that, but that is the simplest way of thinking about it.

plaidflannel

February 27th, 2021 at 10:19 PM ^

Michigan will stay #2 based on Kansas beating Baylor.  Michigan will likely jump Baylor in offensive efficiency too, which would place Michigan's offense and defense in the top 4.

EDIT: We did not pass Baylor in offensive efficiency, but we are still #2 overall and the only team to be in the top 5 of both offensive and defensive efficiency.

SHub'68

February 27th, 2021 at 6:03 PM ^

I agree with this. They take out Ohio State on Sunday, get a couple days, take out Iowa, get what? 36 hours of rest? take out Indiana at Assembly Hall, get 2 days to rest, recover, and prepare, take on Illinois, get one day to rest, recover, and prepare then take on a resurgent MSU (who is NOT going to roll over), then get two days to do that again.

This is a huge test of stamina and will. I hope they can just knock Illinois out quickly and focus on one thing. If they get through this unscathed, it's not any less difficult than an NCAA Tournament run.

xgojim

February 27th, 2021 at 4:40 PM ^

Hey, Guys:  it's fun to be ranked high.  It's great to get deserved respect! 

But the next game is against Illinois!  Then, MSU, home and then away!!  Bring em' all on...

Go Blue, one game at a time!  A very difficult gauntlet in front of this team...  12 more games before the rank will be really meaningful!  We pray that everyone will stay healthy in every way...

JR3410

February 27th, 2021 at 4:48 PM ^

I think very highly of Kenpom and Torvik, but I think there is a major flaw in the system when Gonzaga is ranking as a top 10 defensive team on both sites.  They played 4 good opponents in the non-conference and gave up 75+ pts in every one of those games (82+ in 3 of the 4).  Their defense is likely Iowa level bad, and these sites rank them as an elite defense.

They gave up 88 to the same Iowa Team we held to 57.  How on earth does Torvik have that defense ranked ahead of us?

MRunner73

February 27th, 2021 at 5:02 PM ^

Based on what you point out, I mean in a positive way, then Michigan could arguably be #1.  Several arguments could be made in favor of Michigan deserving of a #1 ranking.

Here's  a few: Defense, then Strength of Schedule, maybe Quad 1 wins-all in Michigan's favor, how about margin of victory of Top 25 teams.

I wonder how well Gonzaga would do playing Michigan's schedule this season?

Durham Blue

February 27th, 2021 at 6:27 PM ^

I think it is almost criminal that Gonzaga is #1.  They are the bullies in a creampuff conference and have a "gauntlet" consisting of Santa Clara, SF, Pepperdine, BYU and University of San Diego.  Gimme the proverbial break.

And by the way, they are awful to bet with.  They are favored by 20+ points in every game, get a huge early lead, then give it back at the end in garbage time.  I've seen this happen time and again.

Frank Chuck

February 27th, 2021 at 7:19 PM ^

@JR3410:

You're not understanding what you're seeing. You're looking at nominal stats. Adjusted efficiency calculates on a per possession basis and accounts for pace of play (i.e. # of possessions in the game).

Here's a simple example:

Consider a game where Iowa scores 75 points but needs 88 possession to get that point total. That's different than scoring 69 points in 64 possessions.

smwilliams

February 27th, 2021 at 4:53 PM ^

Most impressive is that Michigan is Top 5 in both offense and defense. 
 

I did some quick searching and teams that finished Top 5 in both on KenPom:

 

2019 Virginia - won title

2016 Villanova - won title

2010 Duke - won title

2008 Kansas - won title

2007 UNC - won title

2005 UNC - won title

2005 Illinois - lost in title game

2004 Duke - Final 4

2003 Kentucky - Elite 8

2002 Duke - Sweet 16

Might have missed one or two, but uh if Michigan keeps up this level for another month or so, they’ll be in good company.

2012 OSU (lost in final 4) and that stacked 2015 Kentucky team were both close to finishing Top 5 in both. 

Caveat is obviously that those are final rankings and not with a week left in the regular season, but still. 

Frank Chuck

February 27th, 2021 at 9:38 PM ^

1. You chose top 5 in both offense and defense. (There's nothing wrong with that.) But by expanding the criteria to top 10 in both categories, you'll see that more teams have won the National Championship - like 2012 Kentucky and 2002 Maryland.

2. UNC didn't win the National Championship in 2007. Tar Heels choked in the Elite 8 to Georgetown.

Florida repeated and won the 2007 National Championship.

JBG

February 27th, 2021 at 5:54 PM ^

And that with our clearly superior SOS, not to mention 3 week layoff without practicing.  Not sure if this team is as exciting or rad as the Fab 5 but thinking they are as good.  And they have much better hair and beards per this bald, bearded and envious Canadian.  Go Bleu.   

TruBluMich

February 27th, 2021 at 7:48 PM ^

This years team might actually be better than the Fab Five on paper; but that comes with a disclaimer. The style of play in 1993 was MUCH more physical than it is now. Had Jimmy King, Jalen Rose and Chris Webber, could also add Voskuil, shot as many threes as players do now the fancy stats would look much different. Webber physically got beat up in the paint and the sad part is you were mad when they called a foul instead of just letting him dunk it.

The biggest difference between this year's team and the Fab Five is there's no star of the show. Chris Webber was a generational talent; either Rose or Howard would have easily been the best player on this year's team. Jackson or King would be slight steps up from Brooks and there was no one on the Fab Five comparable to Smith. The bench was basically a wash with Eric Riley, Rob Pelinka and James Voskuil.

buddhafrog

February 27th, 2021 at 8:33 PM ^

I am here for thus named "Posbang"

Please act accordingly.

Also, I'm watching Duke lose and hopefully not make the tournament.

Also, I'm thinking of the trash talk Juwan is telling his team about beating the shit out of Illinois and Underwood.

GO BLUE