Is Michigan's offense as predictable as Joel Klatt says we are?

I suspect we've been keeping things very vanilla because of the competition and the fact we've never been in real danger of losing a game. 

If it was, we'd have lost by now.  With lesser teams, I think you can afford to be a bit more "predictable" and dare them to stop you.  IU was selling out on the run, crashing LBs down at nearly every snap, and that was good only for 30 minutes.  Few wrinkles on top of that "predictability" and they were hosed.  Won't be able to do that against PSU, and with JJ having some roadies under his belt and back in the Big House, I expect we will look less predictable Saturday.

On the podcast Brian implied that now he is going to have to check for that as he does the UFR for the offense this week to see if we do indeed have a strong tendency (like Klatt pointed out). So, seems like we might have a pretty good idea when the offense's UFR comes out later this week.

They're obviously sandbagging because Harbaugh has a big tendency to save stuff.

On Saturday, yes, they were that predictable. The next three plays with pistol formation and a motion after Klatt mentioned that, they ran the ball to the motion side like he said.

Brian has pointed out that we haven’t run a single pass play out of pistol this year. It’s why IU’s DBs/LBs were blitzing once we snapped the ball out of pistol. You can save that for a big PA pass but you know PSU is getting that drilled thru their head this week so is it really going to cause the surprise we think it is by saving it for that game?

As was stated in the podcast, if you're going to break tendencies, you don't do it against Indiana.

Yes

Unfortunately yes, Klatt was right on both his observations. Definitely too run heavy on 1st and 2nd down, the run started opening up later in the game when they started throwing more on 1st and 2nd down not surprisely. They are definitely also tipping plays based on motion and formation. If you watch enough other games I don't see what other conclusions someone could come to other than yes UM's offense so far this year has been predictable. I mean last year was great but let's not pretend that not maximizing the offensive talent with the playcalling is a new development under Harbaugh.

Not sure why anyone down-voted you. Agree with the other poster(s) that this is likely very intentional to mess with the future opponents.

Brian touches on this in offense section of the podcast and it sounds like he'll provide his take in the offense UFR later this week.

There was an article out a few weeks ago which said the same thing but didn’t get much run because the stats were compiled from the cupcake games.  

Klatt was wrong; Michigan has passed before with the WR going in motion (the swing route to Bell when he started going across the formation, did a hard change of direction that shook the DB going into motion with him was from an OOC game this year); they even did later in the drive.  

But he was right in that the offensive coaches need to start utilizing PA more to keep the safeties honest.  I think the deep ball shots that could also keep the safeties honest were limited against Indiana because of Wilson being absent.  

I think the most glaring tendency is the runs out of the Pistol that Seth identified a game or two ago; I don't remember seeing a pass yet out of that formation.

oh great, another rock-paper-scissors thread.  sheesh.

I assume Brian will discuss this in the write up or UFR this week. It was pretty predictable, but we did add a wrinkle on the Cornelius Johnson TD pass where we were in a run formation

Yes.

I have never liked the idea of "saving" schematic stuff for "later in the season," like play action passing.  To me that is something you need to work on to perfect.   What you save are your trick plays or particular plays you are setting up over time.

I thought Klatt over generalized based on long sequences of plays Michigan gets into where they do indeed become predictable....they do break that tendency once in a while.  What kills me though with the young play callers is how schematically conservative they get inside the 30/40 yard line.  That will cause trouble against the better teams even more than it has now.

There was a series in the IU game where we moved the ball right down the field with a controlled passing game, incorporating our TEs (aka Schoonmaker).  When we got in the redzone, we handed the ball to Corum in sets that screamed run three times in a row.  Then feeling the failure it almost seems, in the long 3rd down they put themselves in , they go "5 wide"and an empty backfield.  This 99% pass only  situation lead to JJ's first INT, allowed them to pin their ears back and screamed, we have to pass now...so no PA possible....so those three runs did nothing in that drive.  I think they are slowly maturing as play callers, but I worry about those types of mistakes against PSU and OSU who will punish us far worse than we've been to date if we don't stay balanced and give JJ a little more freedom (also, let him roll out a bit for crying out loud).

There is only so much practice time allowed, only so much time the coaches and analysts can devote to any particular game.

I'm perfectly fine if the coaches want to throw rock over and over for a while against a thoroughly overmatched opponent.  Yes, Indiana played well for a half.  But they're still 2022 Indiana.

If Harbaugh/Moore/Weiss do the same thing on Saturday against Penn State, then sure, flame away.  I've got a pretty strong suspicion they won't. 

There are definitely some tendencies that Michigan has put on film in their first 6 games. The motion-run vs. no-motion-pass was not something many noticed until Klatt  pointed it out on the broadcast. I believe Brian will be doing some analysis to check that point in the offense UFR. As for the tendencies that many have noticed and have been discussed:

1. Michigan runs out of pistol sets nearly every time (it’s not exactly 100% but it’s damn close).

2. Michigan runs from under center single back sets probably 80-90% of the time. That’s a rough estimate but it’s probably close. They don’t do enough play action out of this set.

3. Michigan has been mostly running on first downs, though that tendency seems to be being broken more and more as the season goes on and they will likely be much more balanced by seasons end. 

4. Michigan scores on basically every opening possession because they start with a scripted drive. Then the offense seems to stall before racking up points in quick succession later in the game. Austin Meek had an article on the Athletic today where multiple players talked about how they construct the scripted drives for the start of games from plays they executed really well during game week practices.

I think there is a weird divide going on here at the blog that should be addressed. Michigan’s offense has been really quite good so far this season. But has it been operating as well as it can? I don’t think it has, and coaches and players readily admit that in interviews. I think we can all acknowledge that there are things that have been going really well and some things that need to be improved or fixed. That doesn’t require sniping at each other in these threads. 

Yes.

Yes it is. I know people will say we're staying vanilla on purpose, but people say that every year and every year it's always the same. The offense is the offense and the playcalling is the playcalling. 

SO in other words, we still run a highly predictable, highly conservative offense?

Could be worse, I had to watch an entire season of PepCat demolishing Rutgers, but not working against anybody with a pulse.

If it is, we lose Saturday. 

Rock Paper Scissors

On the podcast, Brian said he's going to analyze it for the UFR.