Matchup Thoughts Vs. Alabama
1. Our WRs v their CBs - Funny thing about this is there is no expectation that we'll have any success here. Rational Michigan fans understand that we don't have the horses on the outside this year, conversely Alabama's secondary is fantastic. I actually think this is a good thing for Michigan. I'd much rather have their best defensive unit matched up against our weakest. It's like wasting an Ace against a 2 in a card game of War. But also, if we do get some early success from this unit it could demoralize them a bit.
2. Our TEs v their LBs/safeties? - Obviously this should be a big advantage for Michigan. MGoBlog crew thinks their LBs run in the wrong direction often, and/or just aren't very good. Not much more to say here.
3. Our OL v their DL - Zinter's injury could end up being the difference. But I feel like G Barnhart/T Jones might not be all that much of a step down compared to G Zinter/T Barnhart. While their DEs are expert, their DL is supposed to be, not. We SHOULD be able to run between the tackles a bit, and that to me will be the most important aspect of this side of the ball for me. I'll take 4/5 yards to grind and possess all game.
4. Minter v Milroe - Not sure why I am putting this at #4 because this is the most important key to the game for me. Sure, Milroe has improved and has cut down on mistakes since Texas. But I still think Minter can show this young QB coverage looks that he hasn't seen (see MHJ's post Michigan game comments) as well as pressure/stunts to add enough pressure to force him into inaccurate throws and/or costly mistakes.
5. Our DL/DEs v their OL - They had 2 5* freshmen LTs until recently. Proctor won the job and the other guy is now off the team. While Proctor is obviously talented enough to start as a freshman at LT for Alabama, he's still just a freshman. And the rest of their line isn't supposed to be fantastic. Meanwhile our DEs & DLs are very good and very deep. Just feels like they'll strengthen throughout the game and Minter will dial up some stunts (which have been killer) and just enough blitzes to make this a great matchup for Michigan.
6. Our spies/LBs v Milroe's legs - This will clearly be an important matchup as well. Milroe doesn't want to run, he wants to be a pocket passer. UGA at times had 2 spies standing in no man's land. Hindsight is 20/20, but what a mistake that was. I can't imagine Minter deciding to do that. Better to use those guys either in coverage or to pressure the pocket. Barrett/Colson are about as good as we've had in the last few years to combat Milroe's scrambles.
Lastly, I'm very intrigued by how much JJ will run and if our staff can finally figure out how to get Edwards in space.
What are your thoughts or other matchups that you think will be key?
December 29th, 2023 at 8:38 PM ^
Auburn also ran their QB 15 times. IF Michigan finally let's JJ loose like that then Michigan has a great shot to win.
Will they? Ask again later, but given what we've seen Harbaugh do before, it's doubtful.
December 29th, 2023 at 1:08 PM ^
I’m good with our receivers. Roman is a burner, problem has been there’s been no time for JJ to pass as of late. I guess Stallions not being there has really made our blocking suck lol. I agree with Edwards being needed, big time. We’re gonna need lots of presnap motion and some sort of a screen game like Lloyd was so good at calling. I think the defensive gameplan is gonna need to be very OSU like. Keep everything in front and no huge plays. Everyone’s resting their laurels on Bama beating Georgia. I said all year Georgia was beatable. But when you play in the SEC, Vandy is better than every team in any other conference. Fuk em!
December 29th, 2023 at 1:20 PM ^
They're too good for us. We don't have a chance. But . . . On the other hand . . . Bet!
December 29th, 2023 at 1:21 PM ^
Offensively we need to incorporate things Alabama hasn't seen from Michigan on film. Things like some spread concepts ala Lloyd's last game. Or Alex Orji throwing when he is in the game. Or some trickery like we've done in past years such as Donovan Edwards throwing the ball. Catch Alabama off guard on maybe 10 plays and parlay that into momentum that we can carry throughout the game. Most of all, our offensive plays need to develop quickly. Slow developing plays or indecisiveness is likely going to bite us in the ass. JJ needs to play smart and just get rid of the ball if nothing is open. Avoid sacks like the plague.
Defensively, no big surprises here. The DL needs to contain Milroe to the pocket and force him to throw it. Send some delayed LB/safety/corner blitzes to get Milroe to panic. Keep the weight of the game squarely on Milroe's shoulders.
December 29th, 2023 at 1:22 PM ^
As Michigan fans we seem to always focus on what makes Alabama good. Why not stop thinking about what they're going to do to us and start thinking about what we're going to do to them.
Think about the Ohio State game. They are an amazing team with crazy athletes. Yet I never felt like we were going to lose the game. Remember how we stopped Henderson and Harrison with no problem.
Our defense is elite. Our offense is experienced. We have elite players: Blake, Edwards, JJ, Loveland, Wilson. Let's go!
December 29th, 2023 at 6:51 PM ^
Alabama has 2x as many 5* as Ohio State.
No team, not even Georgia or OSU has the numbers of crazy athletes as Alabama.
December 29th, 2023 at 1:24 PM ^
I'm just going to enjoy seeing them in the post-season again. I think this is the best team I've seen since '97 but the entire footballosphere has been against Michigan this year, and the narrative plus vegas is foreshadowing. I don't expect a win, and I'd be more apt to bet that NCAA wants the Alabama come-from-behind-sabans-last-dance story to play out for the cash money.
December 29th, 2023 at 1:26 PM ^
1. Michigan's 3 and 4 star recruits vs Alabama's 4 and 5 star recruits. Taking 3 stars and developing them, which Michigan does very well, is good enough to win the B1G, but I'm not sure that it's going to be good enough to compete with upper echelon of the SEC.
2. Moore vs 1yd runs up the middle. It's going to happen. The important thing is how long does he try to hang on? If he's still burning downs when Alabama is up 14-0 we're screwed.
3. O-Line vs Edge rushers. If they can hold Alabama's edge rushers mostly in check, and Moore doesn't spend all game burning downs (see #2), I think Michigan has a chance.
4. JJ vs Bubble wrap. Do they take it off? Hard to see a path to victory without some serious action from JJ's legs. They shouldn't be saving him for anything at this point.
December 29th, 2023 at 1:32 PM ^
You just waved away all of Alabama's strengths with a bunch of wishful thinking.
Hope is not a strategy, but I hope that your hope turns out OK.
December 29th, 2023 at 1:46 PM ^
It's a bad matchup for Michigan. Alabama has a mobile, dangerous QB, lockdown corners, and terrific edge rushers.
December 29th, 2023 at 1:50 PM ^
Lots of unease about Michigan's prospects in the posts so far, which is perfectly understandable given: 1) It's Alabama, 2) Michigan's offense hasn't appeared to be on an upward trajectory for quite some time, 3) Michigan's CFP/Bowl game track record.
I'm uneasy too, but at least one thing to be positive about is just about any of the skill players on offense and nearly every player on defense is more than capable of having a huge game. I don't think anyone would be shocked if Wilson, Johnson, Loveland, Edwards, Morgan or even Barner comes up with 3 TDs. A whole bunch of names on defense we can imagine coming up with pick sixes or a fumble return for a TD, sacks, or momentum changing plays. It's possible that Michigan just might be better than everyone else AND demonstrate that through their play.
December 29th, 2023 at 2:52 PM ^
It would be shocking if Wilson and Johnson came up with multiple TDs. Bama’s corners are better players.
December 29th, 2023 at 1:58 PM ^
Key is to not burn downs gaining 1-2 yards with predictable runs.
Don't really see us winning, which sucks, but happy for the season.
December 29th, 2023 at 1:59 PM ^
I think its imperative on offense for UM to use the tight-ends. We have good ones and it will be one of our best mismatches on the field. I think the passing game will need to be used much more than it has been.
Defensively, yes, we need to not overcommit on the blitz and leave us vulnerable to Milroe's legs. We definitely need a spy on him.
This game can be won. Go Blue!
December 29th, 2023 at 2:01 PM ^
Auburn was able to pick up chunk plays consistently by going with an empty set or motioning to empty set, and running a qb draw up the middle with Peyton Thorne. I think UM needs to show a willingness for JJ to run early so Bama has to account for him all day. I also like the idea of using Orji for a handful of QB powers, but unless they trust him as a passer that will be as predictable as the Pepcat so should only be a handful of plays.
December 29th, 2023 at 3:20 PM ^
Or . . . let him pass.
December 29th, 2023 at 2:18 PM ^
it will be a fascinating matchup.
as many have said, Michigan TEs on their LBs is probably one advantage for Michigan. Bama's edge guys are PSU level good, so they will need to get the ball out quickly. More intermediate slant, scissors, seams routes probably as the deep routes probably aren't there versus their pass rush and their coverage.
Milroe is funny; he can look bad for most of the game, but put together 2-3 drives where he looks unstoppable.
its going to be really interesting...Fewest mistakes win this one imo. JJ is going to need to make a few plays with his legs and Michigan will need a few explosion plays to keep their defense honest.
December 29th, 2023 at 2:20 PM ^
I think it comes down to Milroe. If Saban is as good as advertised, he will make Milroe use his legs. Watching over the past season, Michigan has had gaping holes in the line, I don't know if it can be attributed to the DEs getting deep into the back field, but contained, and the other DLs sort of stuck, but there are very big holes between the tackles, that even a statue like freshman Drew Allar was able to take advantage of for 5-10 yards. Why Penn State decided to stop taking advantage of that, I have now idea, but that could have changed the outcome of that game easily.
In order to win this game, I think Michigan needs to use their TEs as receivers first, and JJ using his legs second. Our RBs need to stay in the backfield and block. Michigan needs to use Donovan Edwards and Semaj as slot receivers to run underneath routes and have the TEs and WRs block. I don't think the running game is an option, as that is what Michigan leaned on when they couldn't get anything else going, and Saban realizes that and will neutralize our ground game.
Get the TEs and Donovan going early, and let JJ run once our guys get the LBs and DBs concerned about be passed on.
If JJ becomes effective at eating up chunks with his legs, then when he scrambles he might be able to hit Wilson or Johnson, but if JJ scrambling is a serious option, then he needs to scramble up the middle, and not try to do his classic spin and scramble to the side right into their DEs.
December 29th, 2023 at 2:30 PM ^
Our WRs vs their CBs is a huge disadvantage. They know we have almost no threat to throw the ball, they are going to condense the field and play the run. If we can't run, we are fucked. This is why in today's game you need to be able to do both. If the first play of the game isn't PA I'm gonna chalk it up
December 29th, 2023 at 2:49 PM ^
I'm hoping Minter confuses the Bama offense much like he confused Marvin Harrison.
I'm just sick of all the handwringing. Alabama is a team that should have lost to Auburn of all damn teams.
This is our year. Now go out there and take it!
December 29th, 2023 at 3:12 PM ^
I think we gonna kick some ass.
27-10.
December 29th, 2023 at 3:20 PM ^
I thought we had a 1st round NFL QB who can throw into NFL tight windows? So no passing game except TEs and RBs once he gets to play future NFL CBs?
Got it. Shouldn't be a first rounder then - we don't have 5* WRs but neither does every team in the SEC. Some of those teams even tried to pass the ball to WRs without a NFL 1st rounder QB.
December 29th, 2023 at 8:33 PM ^
Got what? Your post is quite passive aggressive and a bit irrational. Also I did write, “But also, if we do get some early success from this unit it could demoralize them a bit”. So I didn’t say impossible.
I always enjoy the virtue signaling as a fan tries to “out fan” another. Also, love the straw man gaslighting where I claimed JJ can only pass to RBs and TEs.
December 29th, 2023 at 3:22 PM ^
Don’t know if this is a factor, but most of Michigan’s games were played on turf. All sec games are played on natural grass. The Rose Bowl is natural grass- what advantage/disadvantage will this be for either team if any.
December 29th, 2023 at 3:35 PM ^
You can’t underestimate Roman’s speed.
December 29th, 2023 at 5:03 PM ^
Matchup - Michigan against the point spread. Michigan beat the point spread against PSU, OSU, and Iowa.
December 29th, 2023 at 5:03 PM ^
Matchup - white knuckles against the arm rest, stomach acid against stomach wall, my will to maintain some composure against my tendency to yell at the TV. Dreaded double post.
December 29th, 2023 at 5:24 PM ^
Boils down to one thing for me, can we stop/limit Milroe’s impact with his legs? If yes we win, if not we lose.
December 29th, 2023 at 8:45 PM ^
There are to my mind two matchup concerns.
* Our OL could not protect JJ against PSU's edge rushers. Can they do better against Alabama?
* If not, is Klatt right that without Zinter, we can't bully-ball them up the middle?
Other than those two questions, I think we match up well and can figure out how to stifle their offense.
December 29th, 2023 at 9:13 PM ^
Everyone is taking Michigan lightly, including Alabama’s players IMO. Saban will have them prepared and ready to go. Harbaugh will have our guys prepared and ready to go. This will be a very good game, similar to the Ohio State game.
Michigan is the most complete team in the Country. I would rather have our team than theirs. That being said, we win by 6.