Justin Rogers releases a top 5 that includes Michigan
While there was a post earlier this morning about Rogers' commitment date, Rogers also posted a Top 5 today on twitter which consisted of Georgia, Kentucky, Tennessee, LSU, and Michigan.
I thought this was notable, not because I think Rogers will end up at Michigan, but more so a testament of how hard Michigan pushed to change his mind. This time last year, Rogers released a top 13 that didn't even include Michigan on it. He has always been a recruit that seemed to want to go out of state (4 of his top 5 are SEC schools), but even so Michigan still interested him enough to make it to his top 5.
Rogers will be brought up a lot this recruiting cycle (similar to Dobbs) for being the top ranked in-state recruit to probably not go to Michigan. But it seems it definitely was not for a lack of trying.
That dude’s a man...yikes!
If he introduced himself as my uncle, I wouldn't question it. He should be standing there holding one of transleucent plastic cups half full of Crown Royal.
And if he introduced Greg Oden as his father, I wouldn't bat an eye.
It's LSU. That pic is in the middle. That's how I do my CBZ.
Or alphabetical order.
In the Michigan pic, it looks like he's signing a letter of intent. I always include that in my logarithm.
At first glance I thought he was holding up a #1 in the Michigan pic, so I thought that was good. Then I realized he was just talking on his phone. I now think that is bad.
Almost like talking on his cell to management thanking them for the selection. A good omen.
Rogers likely wants to see and be enticed by areas unfamiliar,.. that, or he just loves the South, which is unimaginably hot during summer training. As long as he holds Michigan in this group we'll have the chance to show him just how special things are from his own backyard. When you start to enter objective pros + cons and walk these university settings side x side while also engaging the PEOPLE who comprise the character of these schools (including football),.. there is no comparison. Some of these other schools can show you clean new dorms and glad handing staff, but that's never what we take away in the end.
What you seem to be forgetting is the propensity of the ess eee see schools to pay their top players. Also, southern schools can also sell him on the lack of snow and brutal winters.
I would be more hopeful if he had more midwest schools among his finalists. Hope he comes, but not counting on it.
Is Kentucky firing their money cannons at football recruits now?
We’re gonna get him.
From your lips to God's ear...
Kentucky bound. Good luck to him.
he's a football prospect right?
Considering he has multiple crystal balls to Ohio State, the fact that they did not make his top five (and we did) is a small consolation prize.
Being 2nd, 3rd, etc. is no consolation prize, especially for in state recruits for positions of need.
2nd place is for losers. (I take no consolation in being ahead of Ohio State.)
Having said that, we will not get every in-state recruit we want. Great guys who come to UM from Ohio, Florida, Georgia, and California sometimes want to leave their state. Just look at Daxton Hill last year. Great recruit, uber fast, but he didn't stay in Oklahoma and go to OU or OSU in - state. Put another way, there will always be some in-state kids who want to go south or elsewhere.
Personally, I think that Warinner, and the change in the OL for the good, attracted Rogers. I have thought for many years that Michigan was ultimately going to lose because of a substandard offensive line. Those fears are beginning to subside. I think we could have a very good OL this year, and that sets the tone for so many things. Having depth, and usually not having to play new recruits until at least their 3rd year on campus, makes a huge, huge difference. And OSU's OL is not the behemoth it once was.
I think the frustration for fans comes from the fact Michigan's OL has been mediocre for a longggg time (last year being the first time in a while a whole season felt like a positive) that its disconcerting to see years with multiple highly rated in-state guys go elsewhere. Those guys, one would think, would be the ultimate priority (and I'm not saying they weren't).
True, but Michigan still acquitted itself well in that recruiting cycle. They identified excellent targets after Brown and Dobbs went elsewhere, and made sure to land commitments from them. I see it basically as how Beilein corrected his recruitment after the Langford/Battle nonsense
Brown was definitely a huge loss, even though there was probably nothing Michigan could've done about it. He's a stud
To be completely honest, I'd rather have Keegan, Jones, Rumler, and Barnhart than Dobbs. Especially after he didnt play too well in the All American practices. Keegan and Jones are no brainers, but Barnhart has a better frame and more to work with, and Rumler is a hog. Like a straight up genuine fuckin hog.
I respectfully disagree. To get the big one, you have to consistently be in contention. Jack Nicklaus finished second in more than 20 majors, but what we all remember is that he won 18 of them. Consistently finishing in the top 2 to 5 for elite recruits is a consolation prize in that it shows how close we currently are and bodes well for our chances to get these guys more consistently.
It really is comforting to know that Michigan doesn't have to rely on freshman to fill up major needs on the OL. Even after this year, RS JRs Filiaga and Honingford are waiting to play for 2 years. If Ruiz leaves, we have Spanellis waiting to play before one of Carpenter/Rumler takes it in their respective 3rd year. One of Mayfield or Stueber will lock down the RT job this year and hopefully for 2-3 years after that. The loser of that battle becomes primed to take over LT next year after Runyan leaves. Or throw in talent like Hayes, Jones, or Keegan to possibly surpass them.
While I agree with the OP and the take that some in state recruits are just going to go elsewhere, I think the lack of interest/communication is what makes most fans upset. Somebody once said something like the best kids in Michigan go to Michigan or something?
Would be a miracle if Warriner pulled this out but I think it was too much hill to climb in the end.
I disagree here... not a miracle for a recruit end up staying relatively home, when such a strong program is in his backyard... I for one, was nervous, when the time came to go away to college...and I was only going 45 min away to Ann Arbor... alot of these kids go on recruit circuit, visiting afar, and its a luxury they have because there is no need for a commitment.. but when the reality hits and they have to make a decision..well, they are 18 and never lived away from home... and decide to stay relatively close... we will always be in it with players nearby. So, I don't view it as a miracle.
Agree. This is a Michigan kid and we should be the favorite from the start. Not saying we should pull in every Michigan HS star but at least the majority. If you look at programs with decent/strong in-state HS football (OSU, LSU, Bama - lately Georgia) they get 80 to 90 % of the kids that they go HARD after. This has to start changing with UM and no better time to start than with this kid.
Just win, baby.
Ohio State has had a devil of a time keeping top linemen on both sides of the ball (but particularly OL) in state the last four years or so. They've been losing them to ND, Clemson, and Georgia among others. These are players that are Top 50, Top 100 nationally, born and raised in Ohio. Even Larry Johnson has been whiffing in state.
I think there is a 50% chance that this year they lose Paris Johnson, the #1 OL in the country from Cincinnati. If they do, I think it's the death knell for their OL coach, who has shown such a limited ability to get top recruits that it almost doesn't matter whether he's any good at developing them or not.
If Michigan usurps OSU as top dog in the Big10 sometime in the next 5 years, I think you'll be able to make an argument that it will be at least as much the result of the dramatic difference between the teams' respective OL coaches as it will be to any other factor, like Meyer retiring or hiring Gattis or whatever.
How much $$$ do you think Kentucky and Tennessee are prepared to throw at him?
He has a teammate at Kentucky and he probably has been offered the opportunity to start at tackle there. I think most programs that are being realistic have told him that he’s a guard.
Remember that Kentucky had a fantastic OL last year, won 9 games, and has Vince Marrow. Lexington is a nice place. Kentucky is not the joke that they used to be.
All that being said, it wouldn’t surprise me if there was some thing that gave Michigan and OSU and others some pause here. Maybe grades or the fact that he’s really played the recruiting game here. While we were pushing for a while, it seems like a few schools have backed off trying that hard for the kid. Just speculating.
Remember that Kentucky had a fantastic OL last year, won 9 games
UM won 10 games & also has a good o-line.
Kentucky is not the joke that they used to be.
Have you seen their projections for next year? Their depth chart is not looking good for 2019. They are currently ranked 11 out of 14 teams in the SEC for next season. They had a great year for UK's standards in '18 and had a national level player to hang their hat on. Their recruiting has certainly improved. But, I doubt they have the resources to maintain that. I'd bet they revert back to a .500 team next season while UM is poised for a 10-11 win season.
Well I certainly didn't make the case that Kentucky is a better program than Michigan right now, so I don't really know what to respond here.
Kentucky had 3 or 4 dudes that could have started for nearly every program in the country last year. My point is that it's not like he's down to Michigan, OSU, PSU, and Rutgers. Kentucky has built a respectable program, in an elite conference, has an ace recruiter, and is now producing real NFL talent. Kentucky doesn't stand out as a strange finalist as much as they used to.
Well I certainly didn't make the case that Kentucky is a better program than Michigan right now
Sorry if I make an incorrect assumption. I had assumed you were citing Kentucky's resume as to why he might chose them over the others in his top 5.
Kentucky doesn't stand out as a strange finalist as much as they used to.
UK is not as bad as they used to be, but they still don't match up with the other programs from his list. UT has not been as good recently, but at least is a traditional blue blood with the rest. I doubt they can maintain 9-win seasons in the SEC.
Thanks for adding some context, as I was wondering if UM & OSU were cooling on him a bit as he seems to be draining some recruiting resources that might be better utilized elsewhere.
Yeah I get all that. Sorry, did not mean to seem combative - just wanted to make sure we weren't talking past each other.
Kentucky was projected to finish 5-7 last year, and beat Penn State in the Citrus Bowl. They keep getting projected to have a fall off, but haven't so far. Mark Stoops has the program going pretty well, and they're recruiting better every year. Sure, Michigan is a better program, but Kentucky is incredibly solid, and their OL is great. They'll probably close with 4-5 more blue chip prospects and a plethora of high 3 stars from Ohio, Georgia, Tennessee, and Alabama. Their recruiting has gotten better each of the last 5 years, and the talent level is raising every year. Not to mention they just had a couple program defining wins last year.
They keep getting projected to have a fall off, but haven't so far.
They had one good year. Besides that their best season was 7-6. Out of Stoops 6 seasons he has had a winning record in 3 years and a losing record in 3 years. Granted, his last 3 seasons were his best, but minus last year the best he's done is 7-6. I'd guess he's back to a .500 team plus or minus one, which is not much better than UK traditionally.
Not disagreeing with that. Although Lexington really isn’t that nice. Perhaps I’m letting my feelings about UK and UT basketball recruiting practices permeate into their football programs. Still not sure why any high profile recruit would want to break out of MI just to land at either of those two schools...assuming all of his other offers are commitable.
Even if he commits on the 20th (LOL) he will inevitably decommit after watching the trainwreck of a season.
The early commitment is a financial tactic to get his price up.
Not including Rogers on this, but we've seen this tactic used before from the SEC. High profile commit plans to visit Michigan as signing day approaches. Seems like an improbable long shot to flip. Cancels visit after presumably getting an extra payment.
I put little to no stock in early commitments, particularly when it’s to an out-of-state school. The decommit-rate of those has to be in the 50% range by now.
Some people do want to leave their home and experience a certain degree of freedom for 3-4 years. Thats what brought me to Michigan after all. I think that's why I never fault a recruit who "wants to get away from home"
The team is in South Africa right now. How far away do you think he may wish to go???
I believe it is a good sign with Justin that recently, here, Michigan has been very silent. He seems to enjoy stirring the recruiting pot. He may actually have been a silent commit for some time.
Most see/project him as an OL. I can't decide where he would be most impactful DT or OG.I tend to lean toward DT...he would be a disruptive force to be reckoned with-Hurst and beyond.
Not a silent to Michigan. He’s receiving all of the Kentucky CB’s for a reason.
The same reason he got the OSU then Georgia then Tennessee CBZ??? Maybe he will show up in AA this WE and commit alongside McCarthy and Henning! The fact is that at this time we outsiders do not know and the "insiders" have routinely been played by this young man.
But at the same time some of those states aren't exactly exposing yourself to the world
What do all those schools minus UM have in common?
They have great BBQ.
They're all unabashedly paying for top talent?
I'd be shocked if he ends up in Ann Arbor. I don't blame the kids who want some of that bread, just wish Michigan could recruit on a fair playing field.