Imagine the NFL with no draft, no salary cap, inflated rosters, and a four team play-off for the Super Bowl.
Imagine that and you have college football today. You would have four super powers playing for the Super Bowl every year. You would have televisions being turned off across the nation, advertising revenue would start to dry up, and you'd never see teams rise from the ashes. The NCAA has created a major problem and they are going to need to figure it out fast. Now that the super powers have been established the highest recruits will continue to poor into those couple of schools. People say just win and you can join the group but there should not be anybody left out there that doesn't realize that teams loaded with 4 and 5 stars will regularly thump those that have mostly 3 and 4 star recruits. Nick Saban is not the worlds greatest coach because he takes 3* players to the CFP year in and year out. Look no further than his MSU or Miami Dolphin stints. He was able to build a mecca recruiting system at SEC schools with relaxed admission standards early on and now it's just a matter of inviting kids to come join the party. Good players look even better when they are surrounded by other good players so of course now the top ranked recruits see the super powers as their ticket to the pros. It's going to be very interesting to see if the NCAA can figure out the answer to the problem they created before they totally ruin the sport. I predict it will probably get worse before it gets better as there are always a few guys that flew under the radar in high school and surprise people at the start of their college careers. Now that the transfer rules are relaxed, those players will start to jump to the super powers once they are discovered. Unfortunately, it's apparent we missed that window of opportunity. If Harbaugh would have come in and made a big splash and beaten OSU early on he might have been able to sneak inside that elite group. Unfortunately it now appears we will continue to be on the outside looking in. Just my opinion. Interested if anybody thinks they have an answer to how this problem could be fixed.
January 2nd, 2021 at 9:35 AM ^
Go WAAAAAAYYYY off the rails...
Power 5 forms their own "league," with smaller conferences/divisions. Consolidate recruiting services. Each team has an allotment of "stars" they can use to sign players.
"No way that will work!" you say. Yeah, you're right.
January 2nd, 2021 at 9:36 AM ^
A thought experiment: what if there were NO playoffs?
Money, TV, and fans' eagerness for a clear answer wouldn't allow it but consider that it would reorient attention to individual teams and conferences.
As it is, with the only goal that gets everyone's attention a playoff that leads to a national championship, doesn't that make all other goals virtually meaningless?
Compare youth (pre-teen) baseball: adults claim the goal is development, each kid with the opportunity to improve, but playoffs turn that claim into a lie, as all teams except one end the season with a loss AND an already short season is shorter for the great majority of kids, with only two teams getting a full complement of games to develop. While kids can learn from losing—it IS a valuable life lesson—the playoff system reinforces its implicit idea, that winning vs. losing is the only criteria that matters.
January 2nd, 2021 at 11:05 AM ^
I’m not for changing the system for the sake of life lessons, but I’d take a return to the deliciously controversial poll system over the playoff any day.
January 2nd, 2021 at 11:25 AM ^
I only mentioned "life lessons" because that's something dad-coaches like to bring up, as an excuse for doing whatever they wanted to do in the first place.
However, learning to deal with ambiguity—like arguing over polls rather than insisting there's only one ultimate winner—is a major life lesson.
January 2nd, 2021 at 9:38 AM ^
I read that headline with the 1990s movie trailer voice-guy in my head
In a world...
with no NFL draft...
no salary cap...
Inflated rosters and a 4-team playoff
DUM DUM DUM!
*Tom Cruise with a dubious look on his face*
One man must decide between the love of his life
SCREECH
and destiny
*explosions*
*car chases*
*Tom Cruise kissing a scantily clad woman*
*Tom Cruise yelling: THROW THE BALL!
*Jerryworld engulfed in a fiery explosion*
THE LAST HEISMAN
Directed by Michael Bay
January 2nd, 2021 at 9:44 AM ^
College football is a sport based on decades of things being the same or at least similar. In the last decade things have been shaken up to the point so many programs left conferences they were apart of for decades which has already turned some people off. It's now harder than ever to win your conference and the gap from the top four or five teams to the top ten team is mammoth when than never used to be the case. 2007 and the year of the #2 upset feels like it was another world.
I'm not sure what the solution is, but I'm not sure making the playoff larger and making more regular season games more meaningless is the answer.
January 2nd, 2021 at 11:03 AM ^
Agree with 90% of this...
As a sport CFB is better with curation of decades-long traditions, smaller conferences, and w/out the 4 team playoff and/or conference CC games. And if we are to have bowl games CFB is better if they actually are important to players and programs again.
But...the chase for $$$ (broadcast rights dollars, to be specific) trumped all and is the real reason we have a playoff (of whatever size), huge conferences w/divisions, conf. CC games, and the disruption of many decades-old traditions (rivalry games, bowls that are the big prize rather than extra unwanted games, etc.).
No, an 8 or 12 team playoff will not fix it. Too much is broken for any one thing to be the fix.
But it is still a better idea than a 4 team playoff, in part because it would discourage 50% of the top 100 players going to three or four programs every year (which is the reason the playoff is so predictable/boring). Not the fix. But it could help.
Here is the problem in a nutshell: There really is nothing of value anymore for programs 5-15 in CFB. And that is the long term destruction of the sport as compelling entertainment.
If you are in that 5-15 range (and that is where Harbaugh had Michigan before this year), you are still not even in the same galaxy as Bama, Clemson, OSU.
The talent concentration is such that the no.10 team will lose in a massive blowout to No. 2, for example. Even the No. 5 or 6 team has only a 10% chance of pulling the upset against one of the top three (see ND v. Bama, or Texas A&M v. Bama, of OSU v. Michigan 2019, etc.).
That is...not interesting football. Why even bother to turn on the TV when the outcome is already obvious?
So...the Penn State, ND, Michigan (pre-2020, and yes Michigan will get back to that level soon) level programs are not going to win their conference, except by some very rare fluke (example: ND squeaks by Clemson sans/T. Lawrence).
And if you do not win your conference you are not making the playoff (unless you Bama or OSU).
And if by some stars-align fluke a 5-15 level program does make the playoff, they get...an embarrassing blowout in the first round (Oregon, ND twice, MSU, and even Oklahoma).
So...the way it works now, the vast majority of the historically best programs have...almost nothing to play for. Not going to win the conference (except by fluke), not going to make the playoff (which is the only thing that matters), and if you do make the playoff you are in for a program-deflating blowout loss in the first round.
What about LSU in 2019? O.k., maybe once every five or seven years a Joe Burrow-level QB brings an LSU, or a Georgia, or a Florida to the very top.
But... Even that sort of rare event can only happen at maybe three non-Alabama SEC programs that are already closer in overall roster talent to the Big Three.
More to the point, what the sport really needs is not a once-every-five-or seven-year-stars-align non-BAMA/Clemson/OSU champion.
What would make CFB entertaining and interesting again is for there to be significant variation in the teams that make the playoff from year to year, and really a different champion almost every year.
January 2nd, 2021 at 2:13 PM ^
Perfectly said.
January 2nd, 2021 at 3:13 PM ^
Right now, every game is meaningless for teams that have 2+ losses. Only a small handful of teams are in the playoff hunt by November. The idea that every game counts is total bullshit.
January 2nd, 2021 at 9:54 AM ^
A beat to death subject, but one that is true. Same 3-4 teams every year is problematic. Even expanding to 8 teams, the results would likely be the same. Bama, Clemson and OSU are miles ahead of the competition and only getting worse.
January 2nd, 2021 at 9:59 AM ^
Michigan's path to joining that elite group isn't as difficult as a lot of people on here like to believe. The Michigan brand is still huge and well-respected with many recruits.
Michigan being able to bring in a very good 2021 recruiting class after a terrible season with coaching controversy, should put some things into perspective.
I mean, just imagine how good the recruiting would possibly become if Michigan managed to get those talented kids to gel and win the Big 10 a couple of times.
Michigan would join the elite group and fans of other schools will be complaining about us also being a part of the problem.
Like the OP stated, Harbaugh had a chance to join that elite group. If he stays, hopefully he'll still make that happen.
January 2nd, 2021 at 11:19 AM ^
Depends on what you mean by elite.
Baring a major cultural shift in University priorities + somehow hiring 'the next big thing' head coach...
...Michigan's ceiling is what ND did this year. But we see that after the big three (Bama, Clemson, OSU), there is a huge drop to the no. 4 program (which happened to be ND this year).
Not sure getting totally dominated in the first round of the playoff is elite.
The way CFB works these days, there are really only three elite programs. The rest are just movie extras...
January 2nd, 2021 at 11:35 AM ^
I’d be okay with that ceiling. ND did beat Clemson once this year. Granted Clemsons QB was out but we’ve never been able to capitalize when an OSU qb was out. In fact they come in and beat us worse.
January 2nd, 2021 at 11:59 AM ^
The way CFB is structured now there really is little of value for a school like Michigan. If your ceiling is what ND did this year, it is impossible to have any season be considered a special year.
In a prior era, Michigan finishing 4th meant...they beat OSU, won the conference, and won the Rose Bowl. A great year! A special season! A team that will be remembered for generations!
That same kind of MIchigan team under the current CFB structure would end the year with a bitter pill--dominated in the first round of the playoff. Not so special and not a team remembered for generations.
January 2nd, 2021 at 10:13 AM ^
12 team playoff, 10 FBS conference champs and 2 at large.
January 2nd, 2021 at 10:14 AM ^
Am I wrong that there were four undefeated teams at the conclusion of the regular season? Alabama, OSU, Cincinnati, and Coastal Carolina? Had that been the playoff we’d still have the same title game and one could say the regular season means something. I hope the tv ratings reflect boredom with the existing format and the committee realizes change is needed. I’ll be one to say going undefeated should ensure entrance to the playoff, barring 5+ undefeated teams.
January 2nd, 2021 at 10:33 AM ^
This blog is becoming unbearable to read. The BCS system wasn't perfect and the CFP isn't much better in terms of variability and difference in results. Count me as someone who never really much cared for "Mythical" National Championships decided by sportswriters. I mean did we really fare all that much better getting beat by USC in the Rose Bowl how many times? We wouldn't have any of these complaints if Michigan was winning.
January 2nd, 2021 at 10:34 AM ^
I’m wondering if the people who don’t want to expand the playoffs don’t watch college basketball either or really care about March Madness
January 2nd, 2021 at 11:39 AM ^
I'm wondering if the people who look at March madness and want to apply it to football don't see that basketball and football are two very different sports.
January 2nd, 2021 at 3:16 PM ^
What about all the other levels of college football, that have 16-team playoffs? Are they “different sports,” too?
January 2nd, 2021 at 10:54 AM ^
Since CFP in 2015,
Alabama in 6 of 7
Clemson in 6 of 7
OSU in 4 of 7
So 3 teams have taken 16 of available 28 slots (and 16/21 available to them) and they will have won 6 of 7 championships. Without checking, they have likely dominated recruiting similarly during this stretch.
Whatever factors led to this development, it would be nice if NCAA would acknowledge the issue and make some changes to try to break the stranglehold on CFB of this tri-opoly
January 2nd, 2021 at 11:41 AM ^
But why though? What's the benefit of a more balanced college football landscape? In the NFL it's very clear and deliberate that the system is set up to maximize long term profits of the league's owners.
But if college football is supposed to be an amateur sports institution, applying NFL business principles makes no sense.
January 2nd, 2021 at 10:54 AM ^
The current system saves the Elite teams money. They don't have to pay the players as much to attract them to OSU, Alabama, Clemson.
January 2nd, 2021 at 11:01 AM ^
NFL would be the same - still no Lions in the Super Bowl.
January 2nd, 2021 at 11:03 AM ^
That would be great! Just imagine a country where professional athletes, actresses, and actors were not paid millions of dollars and that money went into our public education system. Teachers, firefighters, police officers, social workers would then be able to buy homes, cars etc without taking in extra jobs. Imagine that! Sounds like a John Lennon song
January 2nd, 2021 at 11:35 AM ^
Everyone is free to not watch the entertainment provided by these actors, actresses, musicians, professional athletes, et al, and free to not buy products endorsed by them. Funny thing about free markets and free people, they get to choose what is more important to them and thus vote with every dollar they spend. You don’t like how they vote? Feel free to convince them to vote differently. Good luck!
January 2nd, 2021 at 6:26 PM ^
This has nothing to do with how they vote-it is about a culture propping up people so much that they are paid millions regardless of how much they are watched. Meanwhile, people who actually do make a difference are paid pennies and struggle to make end meat. Of course, a politically uneducated jackass like yourself obviously does not understand that. Go pay for your Lebron tickets and $500 bottle of wine and raise your fist in the air screaming equality you moron
January 2nd, 2021 at 11:09 AM ^
Great
January 2nd, 2021 at 11:34 AM ^
The draft is something that could never be duplicated in college. Most of these kids will never play football professionally, so to get drafted by university of Louisville or Ole Miss when you have the grades to go to Stanford or Michigan would hurt your non football future. Not mention that the armed forces are all D1 teams. Those players drafted would then have to serve when that may not be something they desire to do.
January 2nd, 2021 at 1:55 PM ^
Old saying if you can’t beat em join em. Or bitch and tell everyone what a great academic school we have, 2 choices, pick one.
January 2nd, 2021 at 3:07 PM ^
Spot on post. Logged in just to upvote which I rarely do.
NCCA is a victim of their own greed.