If/When Christopher Makes It Official...what's your lineup?
Rumor has it Josh Christopher has been a silent commit for awhile now. So after he announces to Michigan tomorrow and assuming EVERYONE signs and no one leaves early.
What is is your lineup/minutes distribution?
April 12th, 2020 at 11:01 AM ^
- Brooks (20), Smith (20)
- Christopher (30), Brooks (10)
- Wagner (30), Livers (10)
- Livers (20), Todd (20)
- Johns, Davis, Dickenson (10-15)
Bench (<7mpg) - Nunez, Williams, Jackson, Bajema
This assumes Livers and Todd both come. I am rounding obviously, but I think it captures the 9 man rotation and approximate ratio of minutes.
April 12th, 2020 at 11:20 AM ^
- Brooks (20), Smith (20)
- Christopher (30), Brooks (10)
- Wagner (30), Livers (10)
- Livers (20), Todd (20)
- Johns, Davis, Dickenson (10-15)
Hard to argue, but is Brooks a 30mpg player next year? I haven't been down on him at all, but his handle is not great and his ability to run an offense is suspect at best given the lack of experience doing so. His defense and shooting should be fine of course, and he certainly won't be asked to be more than the 4th fiddle most of the time so I'm not anticipating major issues. But this team seems like a PG away from somethign big in 20-21, if the season happens as we all hope
April 12th, 2020 at 12:49 PM ^
Eli Brooks played 32 mpg this year and started every game. His assist rate is way too low but hopefully that’s because Simpson’s was so high.
I think people are still colored by the 2018-2019 B1G regular season when evaluating Brooks.
I agree. If Brooks can play 30+ minutes with Simpson and DDJ on the roster, he can with Smith, Christopher, and Jackson. Brooks will remain the best defender and the only person with any experience in the system. The other guards he will be competing with all have major question marks about how much they can play:
- Christopher is a freshman - even as talented as he is there's no way he's playing more than 30mpg. (Thus leaving 50 left.)
- Smith is an up-transfer and very undersized, which will hurt him on defense and against bigger teams.
- Jackson is a bit of a project as a freshman, having hardly played this HS season.
Even best case with Christopher and Smith you're looking at 25-30 each, leaving 25-30 for Brooks.
Yeah, there's no way Brooks plays less minutes than last year despite Simpson and DeJulius being gone. He'll probably even play closer to 35 minutes. I don't see Smith being anything more than Jaaron Simmons was and Eli played ahead of him as a freshman.
Guard rotation for meaningful games will be more like
PG: Brooks 30, Smith 10
SG Christopher 35, Brooks 5.
And I agree with the three and four rotation give or take, i.e those will be 30+ from Wagner and Livers with some Todd, but I'm going to predict that Johns and Todd will play most of the minutes at center. Davis will (should) only be a situational backup and Dickenson won't be ready next year for meaningful minutes.
So for completeness, here's the frontcourt prediction:
SF: Wagner 32, Livers 8
PF: Livers 25, Todd 15
C: Johns 25, Todd 10, Davis 5
Johns and Todd are kind of interchangeable here. They'll play 10-12 minutes a game together when Livers or Wagner are sitting and I'm not sure who will play the 4 and who will play the 5 in that scenario but probably doesn't really matter.
April 12th, 2020 at 12:11 PM ^
LOOK...I don't know if you got the starting 5 down, but the playing NINE? O...M...G...
pleaseletthishappenpleaseletthishappenpleaseletthishappen....
April 12th, 2020 at 12:47 PM ^
This is exactly what I was going to say. All the minutes are spot on. 9 man rotation is the correct amount. Don’t think Dickenson starts and plays more than 15 mpg, same with Davis. Honestly I think Zeb, Williams, and Jace could all redshirt but they won’t. All of them will get random minutes here and there.
Its a great lineup. You have 4 guys probably going to the 2021 NBA draft and a lot of depth and flexibility everywhere. If there is a weakness it’s probably center where I think there will be defensive limitations (Davis athleticism, Dickenson freshmanness, and Johns size).
April 12th, 2020 at 12:53 PM ^
You really don't want anyone to redshirt because of how many will leave after this year. We might need 6-7 recruits for 2021.
Yeah they won’t redshirt. But I see it being like Bajema this season. Everyone’s kind of wondering if he isn’t playing why not just redshirt him? Then he pops up for a few minutes here and there in February in a Rutgers blow out. Jace and Williams could redshirt in that they won’t be needed in the rotation and minutes are tight anyways, but they won’t because it’s probably not necessary long term.
Rutgers blowout? This isn't football...
This looks pretty much exactly like what I would guess. Maybe plus or 5 minutes in various spots but that's probably nitpicking.
April 12th, 2020 at 11:10 AM ^
My top five: Dylan, Dylan, Dylan, Dylan and Dylan.
April 12th, 2020 at 11:11 AM ^
Plain and simple, Todd is not a center.
So we can get that out of our heads right now. He can play some nominal '5' ala Draymond in a GSW "death lineup" role, but he's not going to be guarding or playing a true center position. He's more of a SF than he is C. He's going to bring the ball up on occassion.
So with that said...in a more traditional lineup do you bench one of your best 4 or just go without a PG?
I'm going to say we start Dickinson, Todd, Livers, Wagner and Christopher. However we close with Todd, Livers, Wagner, Christopher, Brooks in a 5-out lineup.
*(#) = mpg
C: Dickinson (18), Davis (12)
PF: Todd (28), Johns (18), Livers (4)
SF: Livers (28), Wagner (12)
SG: Wagner (16), Christopher (20), Brooks (4)
PG: Christopher (8), Brooks (20), Smith (12)
Livers (32), Todd (28), Wagner (28), Christopher (28), Brooks (24), Dickinson (18), Johns (18), Davis (12), Smith (12)
April 12th, 2020 at 11:17 AM ^
3 posts and no one put him at center.
April 12th, 2020 at 11:21 AM ^
1. Plenty of people have suggested it.
2. 3 = Huge sample size. (Sarcasm)
3. I never said anyone did in this particular thread, considering I created it minutes ago.
4. HAPPY EASTER!!! (No sarcasm)
No Todd is not a center but I’d be surprised if he never plays center at all. No one suggested that he’ll get more than a fouole minutes a game
April 12th, 2020 at 11:36 AM ^
You have 10 extra min at the 4 and 10 too few at the 5.. so who moves up? Todd, johns, livers?
I say todd for 10 a game in a gsw lineup against backup bigs and let dickinson and davis battle it out with the garzas and trevion williams types..
No one moves up...we just play with 2 PFs.
Todd and Johns can play together in spurts.
Livers can even play with them. Switch everything.
Or
Todd/Livers/Wagner/Christopher/Brooks...you can still switch everything late in games.
But these aren't core lineups...but you definitely can use them at times.
So youre saying.. todd plays the 5..
April 12th, 2020 at 11:43 AM ^
Crazy to think that Smith grad transfered here to play 12 minutes a game. Maybe a lot light on the minutes.
April 12th, 2020 at 12:11 PM ^
The more video I watch of Todd the less confident I am that he plays more than 20mpg if Livers and Wagner are on the team. If his recruit ranking was 43 instead of 13 I think everyone would be saying that like they are with Dickenson. Because he's a top 15 guy everyone puts him at about 30mpg. I don't see it.
We can make fun of Izzo (and should), but Karen Jackson was a much more polished five star and played 22mpg.
The only other minor issue I would take is Wagner playing that much 2. Maybe a few minutes, but he's not a 2 so playing him that many minutes there is unlikely.
April 12th, 2020 at 12:56 PM ^
Wagner is not and never will be a 2. I think Brian started that on the front page and it still lives on. The few minutes they tried that this year out of desperation it was a disaster.
And in this scenario we've added a probable 1st round pick at that position. It's highly unlikely that will increase his minutes there.
I disagree.
I love Todd's film. He can do a little bit of everything. I really like his game. But see I see Todd as a SF/PF, a lot of folks are trying to find a PF/C in him and it's just not there. He's not even KG. You can tell he models his game after LBJ, Durant and Giannis (who wouldn't I'm 2020). My point is...he has no desire to play in the post. He seems himself as a point forward and I think he can play that role some.
Now the more I watch Dickinson, the more I see a guy who's a year in college away. He gets pushed off the block even though he's bigger than everyone he plays.
Give him 1 year with real post position training and a year in Camp Sanderson and I see a guy who is All-B1G as a Sophomore, 1st Team All-B1G and an All American as a junior.
Christopher is a monster. If he can hit a jumpshot he's a top 10 pick in 2021. A Christopher/Livers pick and roll (or pop) has a shot to be the most deadly play in CBB next year.
Wagner to me is the one I worry about. Because he's going to get relegated as a corner spot shooter who can do more than just shoot. Only problem is...he's not a great shooter, nor is that his game. He slashes with his length, can't do that with all of these guys driving, collapsing the D and kicking out to you.
Wagner may be better starting, but subbing out early so he can lead the 2nd team.
Come to think of it...
I'd start Dickinson-Todd-Livers-Wagner-Christopher
But I'd pull Wagner for Brooks at the under 16. Geta true PG on the floor and a guy who's okay parking his behind in the corner and knocking down kick out 3's.
Then bring Wagner and Johns in for Livers and Todd.
That is almost unfair.
Agreed...but Brooks played 32 last year. I just couldn't take anymore away.
I honestly don't know where you'd pull them. It seems like a few folks are slightly down on Todd compared to most. Maybe that's where you take them.
But I find it hard to believe that the best recruit in school history on 247's database is going to play less than 28 mpg.
FWIW, Simmons transferred and played 8 mpg.
So I'm giving Smith 50% more time.
April 12th, 2020 at 11:12 AM ^
Davis, Livers, Wagner, Brooks, Christopher
April 12th, 2020 at 11:25 AM ^
Brooks, Christopher, Livers, Wagner, Dickinson.
If Livers goes pro, Todd enters the starting lineup.
If Livers stays, I'm expecting a conference championship and deep tournament run.
Best recruit in "modern" school history (for 1 more day) and be doesn't start?
How could Howard get another Todd if he doesn't start Todd? Every coach in America will use that against him and any other top 50 guy he goes after.
April 12th, 2020 at 11:26 AM ^
Eli Brooks
Josh Christopher
Isaiah Livers
Franz Wagner
Hunter Dickinson
Rotation = Smith, Todd, Johns, Davis.
Again,
I just don't see getting a top 10 player and not starting him. Off of optics and future negative recruiting alone.
If anything, start him and pull him at the under 16 media.
If we were UK, Duke or Carolina...maybe, but we can't afford to not start 5* talent.
Personally, I really like his game, so I'd start him off that alone. Dickinson is the one that I'm not completely sold on in year 1. I think he needs a year with Juwan, Saddi and especially Sanderson. Year 2, I think he's legit, Year 3 I think he's all-B1G and a mid/late first rounder.
April 12th, 2020 at 11:27 AM ^
- Christopher
- Livers
- Smith
- Todd
- Wagner
You almost have to start any 5 stars you recruit, at least at first. If the public sees that they don't deserve to start, then you can start somebody else.
Livers and Wagner deserve to start.
I think Smith may be more effective overall, but for Brooks coming back in his senior season, he should get the start to kick off the year.
So for political purposes, I think we'll see a centerless starting 5 of:
- Brooks
- Christopher
- Wagner
- Livers
- Todd
The centers will get in early and often, while Todd rotates with Wagner and Livers. But Johns is not really a center either, so perhaps we'll be playing a centerless system half the time or more.
Ok, I really have no idea. Should be fun to watch, and I'm sure at some point I'll be furious with Howard for not playing someone for and/or in a different position. (-;
April 12th, 2020 at 11:29 AM ^
You're playing a dangerous game making this assumption. Why tempt the gods?
April 12th, 2020 at 11:56 AM ^
Not to mention there's a nonzero chance that the season never happens.
The season will commence, but the defense will suffer due to the 6' guidelines.
April 12th, 2020 at 11:57 AM ^
PG : Brooks (15), Smith (10), Christopher (5), Zeb (5)
SG: Christopher (30), Brooks (10)
SF: Wagner (25), Livers (10), Bajema (5)
PF: Livers (25), Todd (10), Johns (5)
C: Dickinson (20), Johns (10), Davis (5), Todd (5)
Todd and Dickinson are the biggest variables in my opinion, we don’t know how ready they are to play Big Ten basketball in the post. I’ve only got 15 min per game for Todd, but I could see him getting close to 30 min per game if he can play with the big guys. It’s going to be really hard to displace Livers and Wagner minutes, but if Todd is ready from day one, I could see him starting at the 4 and Livers at the 3. Wagner was really playing like a star at the end of the year though. If Dickinson isn’t ready that leaves a lot more minutes for Johns at the 5.
This is really hard to project right now because we don’t know how good the freshman are yet. Plus, I’m expecting Bajema to make a leap.
Not bad, but a few thoughts:
- It gets really hard to project the players who are ~5mpg because they reach that number by playing a few minutes in blowouts and almost none the rest of the year (see Nunez). So when you put all of them in there and try to add up to 200mpg it doesn't really work.
- As excited as I am for Dickinson, freshmen centers struggle to play 20mpg. We'll see, but I think he's more 15-20. Look at the past centers (Teske, Wagner, etc.) and even McGary struggled to play 20mpg.
- I doubt that Smith only plays 10mpg given his experience. That's only slightly more than you have Zeb (a project) and Bajema (glued to the bench) playing.
- NFW that Josh Christopher, a true freshman, plays 35mpg when even guys like Simpson, Novak, etc. couldn't do that.
If Davis come back for 5 mpg that is a HUGE fail.
Todd with only 15 mpg also stands out. But hey, I asked for your opinion. Not going to knock it now that you shared it.
April 12th, 2020 at 12:12 PM ^
PG Christopher
SG Livers
SF Wagner
PF Todd
C Dickenson
April 13th, 2020 at 11:49 AM ^
PG Jackson
SG Christopher
SF Williams
PF Todd
C Dickenson
coach: Fisher
April 12th, 2020 at 12:17 PM ^
I think Bajema will get some run at the 2 and perhaps the 3 depending on his offseason strength gains. I see him getting about 10 minutes a game. I can also see where Zeb and Williams would factor in there for 2-3 minutes a game, some they will play more, others less. If Howard wants to play fast and uptempo he would have the roster for it.
I gotta see if Nunez out-practices him before I make any speculations.
Apparently hes Steph Curry in practice.
1. Brooks (22) Smith (13) Jackson (5)
2. Christopher (29) Brooks (7) Bajema (4)
3. Wagner (30) Bajema (4) Livers (6)
4. Livers (22) Todd (13) Johns (5)
5. Davis (15) Dickinson (15) Johns (10)
Brooks (29) Christopher (29) Wagner (30) Livers (28) Johns (15) Dickinson (15) Davis (15)
Smith (13) Todd (13) Bajema (8) Jackson (5)
This is what I would favor to start the season and see how it goes. What Howard will do, I have no idea. Better find minutes for Jackson since he will be the only non-freshman on the roster in 2021.
Where are Dickinson and Nunez going?
My bad. I meant to say non-freshman guard.
Williams, Zeb and Hunter will all be back. Bajema, Johns and maybe Nunez to go with them. That's a class of 7 at a minimum depending on what happens with Jace going forward.
I was in a lineup at the Ann Arbor police station several years ago but wasn't picked out. Good thing, too, because I didn't do it.
With DDJ and Castleton transferring, I think the lineup of Brooks, Christopher, Wagner, Livers, Dickinson/Davis seems the most logical at this point. So to be a little different I'll throw out the lineup I most want to see:
Christopher
Todd
Wagner
Livers
Johns
I know that this is out there. Are there enough ball handlers in this lineup? Can you really play 2 freshmen in the backcourt? Would Todd or Wagner be about to guard the opposing 2 guard? Johns has shown flashes but can he really play the 5? I know this wouldn't be something until later in the year (have to get the freshmen up to speed), but these likely are the most talented and versatile players on the roster. Getting them all on the court at the same time would really be special if it could work. There are mismatches at every spot. If Christopher can be a guy that can initiate offense, and Todd can be a guy you can rely on handling the ball (he absolutely has the ability to do it), this lineup would be ridiculous. Again, a lot of big ifs, but a ton of potential with this.