Hypothetical: Where would UM go if/when it leaves the B1G?
Since it's a slow news day, and we're all just waiting around, I thought it might be fun to speculate on consequences if the naive dimwit commish doesn't wise up.
I seriously doubt UM would leave the bigten before the end of the current TV contracts, but what do you guys think might happen then? Or would some circumstances lead to changes before that?
Personally, I'd like to see a super conference of the best academic schools.
UM, Stanford, Cal, USC, UCLA, UNC, Florida, Notre Dame, Georgia Tech, maybe a Purdue and Northwestern so that everyone else can get some free wins. Maybe let OSU and Penn State come along if they beg first. You get the idea.
November 9th, 2023 at 2:39 PM ^
Assuming current conference structure--which we shouldn't assume, given that a major conference is dying before our very eyes--the ACC makes the most sense. Eastern Time Zone and lots (more than the B1G, really) of elite academic institutions. But I expect college sports conferences to change up dramatically many more times in my lifetime, so who knows
November 9th, 2023 at 2:46 PM ^
I agree. ACC is the best overall fit for us. Academics, good geographic footprint, growing population states, etc.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:56 PM ^
As it currently stands, ACC schools are earning approximately $20m less per year than Big Ten schools (in terms of revenue sharing from the TV contracts). $20m is a lot of cheese to give up regardless of how dumb the BIG has been.
November 9th, 2023 at 4:10 PM ^
Then again, if Michigan were to join the ACC, the bigger money will follow. New TV network contracts can be made.
November 9th, 2023 at 4:13 PM ^
Yeah there are many reasons why Michigan isn't likely to leave the B1G any time soon, this being probably the biggest. But ultimately Michigan has to place its own self-interest over loyalty to a conference, and the B1G is not fully holding up its end of the bargain right now
November 9th, 2023 at 4:36 PM ^
Michigan joining the ACC does two things:
1. Greatly increases the value of the ACC
2. Diminishes the value of the B1G
I would imagine these TV contracts include language allowing for the renegotiation of terms under certain circumstances, such as arguably your largest brand leaving. Typically you see a Grant of Rights, where the network owns the rights to every team in the conference’s games, even if they leave. Not sure if that exists in the B1G and what the cost of getting out of that is (or if Michigan can find a loophole to get out for free), but if they’re smart they would leave the possibility of renegotiations on the table
November 9th, 2023 at 5:10 PM ^
Also, M would join with a non-equal share presumably. Assume each ACC school gets $30M and B10 gets $50M
M decreases value of B10 by 10%: B10 schools now get $45M
M increases value of ACC by 10%: ACC schools now get $33M
M gets an additional share 25%: M gets from the ACC $41M
I'm obviously pulling numbers out of my ass, but I'm attempting to be conservative. I heard the ACC was looking into a 50% extra share for Clems, FSU, others. Assumes the GoR in the ACC doesn't get renegotiated.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:18 PM ^
ACC would be a recruiting goldmine as well. An Ohio University would have an incentive not to renew The Game, to keep our mitts off their recruits.
November 9th, 2023 at 4:37 PM ^
Almost certainly BS, but entertaining to see it bandied about ...
November 9th, 2023 at 5:28 PM ^
Michigan to the SEC would be crazy. Pete Finebaum's head might explode - and while I like the thought of that, I just don't see it happening.
November 9th, 2023 at 4:56 PM ^
Yeah, that's not going to happen. ACC teams receive a payout that is almost half of what B1G teams receive.
Nobody wants to watch Michigan play Cal or UNC or Wake Forest, and TV execs certainly aren't going to pay top dollar for it.
This would result in Michigan taking a dramatic pay cut, which makes no sense in a world driven by NIL (and probably direct player payments sooner or later).
If Michigan leaves the B1G, the smartest move would be the Notre Dame model, where they go independent for football and remain in the B1G for the other sports. That's the only way for Michigan to avoid significant dilution of their brand value.
November 9th, 2023 at 5:06 PM ^
I've thought about the independent route as a means for M to own it's own streaming platform and production for games. I would pay $30/month for in-season months to watch M-broadcast M football games. How many other people would as well I don't know. But the brand seems valuable enough to justify its own broadcast channel.
OTOH if an independent broadcast forced M to stoop to in-stadium billboards for Michigan Pork and Safelite Field turf, then I'd understand if this route was a hard pass.
November 9th, 2023 at 6:06 PM ^
Thank you for speaking sense. Michigan v Pittsburgh or Syracuse or Wake Forest or whatever is a joke and aside UM fans no one is watching that garbage yearly. Rather than 2 Rutgers people are clamoring for 7 Rutgers games a year. At 40% discount of revenue.
Fergodsakes.
November 9th, 2023 at 6:41 PM ^
Nobody wants to watch Michigan play Cal or UNC or Wake Forest
Yeah! Give me more games against Northwestern, Rutgers, and Illinois!!!
November 9th, 2023 at 7:10 PM ^
You're kinda ignoring all the chaff in the B1G too. We have all of 2 games of note this year, in better years its 3 or 4. Will it really be that different in the ACC. We all hate our MSU and OSU rivalry and we never play Minn anyhow. So what are we really losing?
November 9th, 2023 at 8:37 PM ^
We should probably just combine the ACC and Big Ten and take another 6 six teams to make it an even 40 teams. Then you could use a relegation model. The Big Ten would be at the top. The Next Ten would be the next division down, followed by the Little Ten, and then on the bottom would be the Pathetic Ten which could be shortened to the Pat-10, an obvious homage to the old PAC-10.
November 9th, 2023 at 2:40 PM ^
when cal and stanford were considered for expansion everyone lost their minds, now we want to have a conference with them?
November 9th, 2023 at 3:01 PM ^
dbl post
November 9th, 2023 at 3:02 PM ^
Cal and Stanford to the B1G made much more sense than Oregon from a cultural, academic, non-revenue sport standpoint.
money aside, Michigan is a good fit with the ACC. Cal, Stanford, Notre Dame, Duke, UNC, and UVA are all schools that Michigan applicants consider.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:06 PM ^
Who lost their minds? I would have loved for Cal and Stanford to join. Hell, I'm still hoping we can somehow trade Maryland and Rutgers to the ACC for Cal and Stanford.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:12 PM ^
Ditto!
November 9th, 2023 at 3:12 PM ^
I agree but there was so much anger everytime i mentioned it. Granted Cal's athletic department is horrendous but i still support adding Cal and Stanford
November 9th, 2023 at 3:14 PM ^
I’m fine with Maryland even though I wished they had stayed in the ACC. I’d love to get rid of Rutgers and Nebraska though. Nebraska belongs in the big 12 and Rutgers belongs in the AAC
November 9th, 2023 at 3:21 PM ^
Yes. I always wanted them, and always wanted it to be about academics, too. Let's join the ACC, then bring in Texas, Florida, and--I dunno, who ya got, Washington and Oregon? Personally, I love the idea of expanding to just GUT the B1G and SEC. Have it look so strong both academically AND for sports, so expansive geographically, that the rest of the country is just outside looking in. Tell the NCAA to piss off forever, forge huge new research and library pacts, and don't look back. There's an opportunity here; they have opened the door!
November 9th, 2023 at 8:46 PM ^
Bingo! This would actually make sense on both of those dimensions.
November 9th, 2023 at 6:44 PM ^
I wouldn’t say anyone lost their minds. They’re both actually great fits in the Big Ten. I believe people simply acknowledged that money was the driving factor in expansion and those two schools didn’t bring an added benefit in that regard so it was never going to happen.
November 9th, 2023 at 2:40 PM ^
ACC or Big 12. Michigan would be a terrible fit for the SEC both geographically and culturally.
November 9th, 2023 at 2:54 PM ^
Michigan is closer to SEC territory than USC is to Big Ten territory.
Rutgers and Maryland have no cultural fit to the Big Ten, yet they're here.
Neither of those things matter anymore. In 5 years, there will be a super conference of the BigTen and SEC. If we want to be a part of it, it's an either/or proposition.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:19 PM ^
In 5 years, there will be a super conference of the BigTen and SEC.
Based on the current landscape--and pushing out to 7 years, when the Big Ten TV deal ends--maybe.
But based on a landscape in which Michigan and perhaps some other schools are no longer in the Big Ten? That's different.
BTW--kudos to the OP to have the guts to post this thread. I thought about posing the same question yesterday and chickened out. But if Sam Webb is devoting half his WTKA show to discussing hypotheticals of what Michigan might do as an alternative to the Big Ten, why shouldn't we?
Per Isaiah Hole, both FOX and CBS Sports are headed by Michigan alums who are big fans. That's the little part. The big part is: Michigan and OSU are the reason the Big Ten got its media deals, period. Michigan's value is conservatively somewhere around half of that, assuming it could schedule high-profile opponents as an independent or in an alternative conference.
So--could it? Yeah, some folks think Michigan could.
- Notre Dame is both just sitting there as a quasi-independent and has proven it can be done. Now, I may personally despise ND, but there's no question they have both academic and athletic credentials. The Big Ten has never been able to offer them what they wanted--but with more flexibility and no dead weight schools, Michigan probably could.
- If ND partnered with Michigan, would USC -- and by extension, UCLA -- be far behind? Those schools have no loyalty to the Big Ten.
- For that matter, what if Michigan invited Oregon and Washington to join in--and not to have to take a lesser share, like the Big Ten forced them to take, while pre-existing leech programs within the Big Ten suck on the UM-OSU teat at full shares? Certainly no worse than being forced to schedule cross-country trips to Piscataway.
- Then one starts looking over at the ACC teams--like UNC or Duke--who might be just fine joining a new conference with academic and athletic credentials and a good media deal.
Point is, Michigan might have to wait a few years (or maybe not; maybe the TV networks work in tandem with Michigan and these other schools to make a better TV product), but it has inherent value--and options--that aren't going away.
November 9th, 2023 at 4:19 PM ^
I like this more than anything I've seen before. It's plausible and appeases academic standards while offering appealing matchups.
November 9th, 2023 at 6:06 PM ^
Michigan puts together its own league:
North Division
Michigan Notre Dame Illinois Syracuse Boston College
South Division
Penn State Duke North Carolina Georgia Tech Florida State
Each plays all schools in their division and 2 from the other. That leaves each team with 4 non conference games and great flexibility. They can set that up as they want it. (e.g. 3 easy and one tough, or 4 easy. etc. Maybe based on who they play from the other division in that particular year)
November 9th, 2023 at 6:07 PM ^
It's not plausible at all.
November 9th, 2023 at 5:16 PM ^
I'm basing it on the current landscape, because I think today's situation is the only one where the threat of leaving the big ten makes sense.
Yes, the SEC and BigTen will be different when the super conference comes around, but the threat to leave the BigTen is has to be immediate, in order for guys like Petitti to back the F off.
It's a threat to leave for today's SEC or not leave at all.
Which holds more weight?
Saying, "we're going to leave for the Big 12, and then in 7-10 years, rehab it in to a national conference via 4-5 just as unlikely moves"
OR
Saying "we leave for the SEC tomorrow (with the actual move coming in 1-2 years), and now the SEC has enough national teams to push the Big Ten to C-Span and Hulu 2"
November 9th, 2023 at 6:32 PM ^
This is starting to feel like a manipulation to convince everyone that Conference affiliation doesn't matter and Super Conferences need to happen sooner rather than later.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:02 PM ^
Michigan would be a terrible fit for the SEC and the Big 12 both geographically and culturally.
FTFY.
Among other things, the Big 12 has too many schools that are second-rate (or worse) academically.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:07 PM ^
Agree with this. Big 12 is no different from SEC culturally and geographically. Big 12 is actually WORSE than the SEC academically, in both its current and future forms.
November 9th, 2023 at 2:41 PM ^
No. If Ohio State was the cause of all of this, in no way, in the event they leave the big ten should they ever consider being in a conference with them again. Make OSU beg to play annually, they need Michigan more than Michigan needs them. Beating Michigan is their entire identity.
November 9th, 2023 at 2:53 PM ^
Playing Michigan is their identity. They have a losing record against us.
Michigan is 60 - 51- 6 all time.
Oh, you're* an OSU slappy and think a lot of our wins are from too far in the distant past? Good break point is COVID. We're 2-0 in the post COVID era.
*I'm talking to my OSU buddies and/or a fictional character who embodies OSU online fanbois.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:03 PM ^
The University of Michigan leads ohio state in national titles, conference titles, all time wins, and head to head wins.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:41 PM ^
Yeah thanks to all that cheating!!
November 9th, 2023 at 3:57 PM ^
This is a hypothetical
November 9th, 2023 at 2:41 PM ^
If UNC is in, then Duke is too. I think you also add Texas, which probably brings along Oklahoma. OSU is actually a pretty good school for as much as we make fun of the mouth-breathing fanbase. I'd nix Florida.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:07 PM ^
The Catch-22
Michigan-Michigan State (can't leave little bro behind)
USC-UCLA
Stanford-Cal
UNC-Duke
Florida-Florida State
BC-Notre Dame
PSU-Rutgers (Need the NY and Philly markets)
Washington-OR
Northwestern-IL
Georgia-LSU
Texas-Oklahoma
__________________
On deck Louisville and TN
F-OSU and Bama
_________________
Not a lot of thought.
1. TV Markets and/or academics
2. Premiere schools
3. Rivalries.
4. Nationwide footprint.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:48 PM ^
We absolutely can leave MSU behind. We never wanted them in the conference from the beginning and we don't need them now.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:54 PM ^
I'd PREFER to leave MSU behind.....
November 9th, 2023 at 4:05 PM ^
It’s actually very easy to leave MSU behind.
Step 1: leave MSU behind
Step 2: ???
Step 3: Profit
November 9th, 2023 at 5:32 PM ^
"It’s actually very easy to leave MSU behind."
There must be 50 ways to leave your brother...
November 9th, 2023 at 4:26 PM ^
If academics matter more than the current competitive nature of a team, can we throw University of Chicago into the conversation? Talk about history. They also had the first Heisman Trophy winner..
November 9th, 2023 at 4:49 PM ^
MSU has that aggro violence culture though. blech.
November 9th, 2023 at 3:26 PM ^
MGoBoz would nix Florida, the number five public university. Let's let personal bias rule the day. :)