Hypothetical Nightmare for CFP

It's hard to take the CFP seriously in that teams are rewarded for ducking difficult non-conference games. I'd leave ND out because of a lack of a conference title and take Oklahoma because the Sooners went to Columbus and risked and won. Washington sits because of schedule strength. Any serious attempt to evaluate strengths and weaknesses of top teams is made irrelevant because the media focuses only on the number of losses. Treating the conference title games as anything but eliminators is difficult to justify. Which led to the absurdity of inviting OSU over PSU last season. I think the real nightmare is if a mid-major goes 13-0 and joins the mix without having played a single top 20 team all season.

Why is everyone assuming Alabama is in even if it loses to UGA in the SEC title game? Alabama has beaten no one of note. The teams that are ranked in the SEC besides UGA are a joke; it is the SEC bias of the media ranking everyone so they can claim a tough schedule. It is a joke that LSU is still ranked after losing to Troy.

They'll probably won't go undefeated next week.  A bigger nightmare would be a bunch of 2 loss conference champs.

and forgot potentially 11-1 PSU with a 1-pt loss on the road to a 12-1 team.

The first time that Notre Dame gets in and two P5 conferences get left out, we will see a quick expansion to 8 teams.

The conferences own the system, and they won't just sit by and have 40% of their representation be excluded from the biggest event in CFB.

I think this has basically been said, but at the end of the season, take the 5 conference champs plus ND. That's six teams. Eliminate any of those 6 teams with 2 losses. There's a good chance you have 4 teams left. If you have 3 teams left, you add the best of the rest with two losses. If you have 5 teams left, you eliminate one of the one loss teams. Eliminate first on head to head (i.e., if Oklahoma and OSU each end up with one loss, eliminate OSU. If Georgia and ND end up with one loss each,l eliminate ND. That last scenario is very unlikely, but I guess it is technically possible.) After eliminating via head to head record, go with ranking, i.e., popularity contest.

Personally, this season will be a success to me if Michigan beats OSU. This seems extremely unlikely, but that would almost undoubtedly knock OSU out, having two losses. And I absolutely don't want to see Michigan in the national championship final four teams this year. We aren't ready. Keep on getting better, every day, every game, and maybe next year.

go and ND gets squeezed out. It's their own fault - they could go B1G or ACC but they want their independence. Every choice has ramifications.

I actually think the pac12, acc and big 12 will have 2 loss champ and 2 of the three teams you listed from those conf. will not be champs. This year has been pretty crazy already and I expect it to continue.

Washington is going to left out because of their nonconference and weakness of Pac-12 makes their schedule strength awful. The loser of the SEC championship game would get left out for not winning their conference. Notre Dame would get left out for losing to Georgia at home, lack of conference championship game (13th data point), and not having beaten a top level opponent (assuming Washington wins the Pac-12 North over Stanford). Notre Dame would be the one team on that list not to have a top-15 win. Notre Dame would need Miami (FL) or NC State to win the ACC.

I think your playoff would be Alabama/Georgia, Oklahoma, Ohio State, and Clemson. In that order.

To Hell With ND !!

Everyone says this every year (going back to the BCS days) and it never happens. Could there be one semi-deserving team that gets left out? Sure. But Oklahoma will lose somewhere along the line because their defense is mediocre. Washington will trip up because they aren’t especially dominant. These what-if-everyone’s-the-same doomsday scenarios never play out because everyone isn’t the same.

Zillions of assumptions on future events. I'll go with:

1)Alabama

2)Clemson - Defending champ and ACC champ is not getting left out for one of these other teams.

3)Georgia SEC hype, win @ND, dominant in other games. Iif they keep it close against Alabama the SEC gets a 2nd team. An Alabama loss is the best loss in committee's eyes

4)Notre Dame - 1 point loss to Georgia, wins over @MSU, killed USC/NC State, adding wins over Miami and Stanford. Might have best collection of wins of any team.

Sorry:

5)Oklahoma - Theyve been kinda lame 4 weeks in a row now and the Big 12 is not well respected 

6)Ohio State - really wants OU to lose because obviously they're losing that tiebreak. Loss to Michigan makes this hypothetical moot anyway. 

7)Washington - fairly lame schedule. And ASU is a shitty loss. Also not getting much attention, which is always bad. 

Rankings are silly. Last year us lambasting psu didn't mean anything because "teams change through the season" but then everyone wants to talk about why who should be in what because of who they beat.

 

None of it makes any sense. Rankings across 120+ teams who barely play any similar opponents are silly. The entire thing is rather arbitrary in a one off system anyway.

What if everyone is undefeated next year?!?

of at best average intelligence and short attention spans.

That's more like a dream where you are running from a giant bowling ball.

 

 

A real nightmare would be:

2loss Notre Dame

1 loss Georgia beats Bama in SEC 

1loss WSU  p12 Champ

2loss ACC champ

1loss non OKLA b12 champ

10-2 Wisc b1g champ 

10-3 MSU runnner up (beat UofM)

10-2 UofM (beat Wisc and OSU)

10-2 OSU (loss to UofM)

Figure that nut-hump out.

Georgia and Bama have to play each other in the SECCG anyways so one of them won’t make it.

And it’ll be Georgia in that scenario.

Make 4 "Power" conferences. This makes the conference championship games quarterfinal games. Play the semifinals two weeks after that and the championship 2 weeks after that. No extra games, but it creates 4 more "playoff" games

The PAC12 and B1G champions could be left out his year. This will drive those buck nuts in OH crazy! Overall, I think the playoffs should be expanded to 8 teams. This could get the true P5 conference winners in and two at large teams.

ND, OSU, Bama, Clem. DONE

Ohio St. is too powerful to get left out. Bama too good, ND to popular. So they are all in. Clemson, OSU, Washington are left then and it’s a toss up.

Iowa State?

As long as we are playing what ifs

They have wins against two top 5 teams - Oklahoma (@Okla) and TCU

If they win out that means additional wins against ranked West Virginia, Oklahoma State, and in Big 12 championship game mostly likely another win against Oklahoma.

Their losses are to Iowa (in OT) and Texas 17-7), neither bad losses.

Do I think they are going to run the table - No, but if they do, that is a pretty good resume for a 2 loss team.