How Michigan Stacks Up Against Alabama According to the Computers

Pretty disappointed over here that Michigan won't get a chance to punch Georgia in the mouth, but if the alternative is a statically worse bama team, that's not worth complaining about at all.

These stats are close to meaningless when comparing two teams that had no common opponents and played in two entirely different leagues. 

They are good.

But M's got this, baby!

Bet...

on the bright side, just when we thought the entire football world hated Michigan , we gained a fan base pulling for us to kick bama's ass... 

Gotta see the "sec bias" ranking before I make my pick

The game is played on the field not computers … both teams will be ready … who can run the ball will be a big factor … JJ has a large advantage in the passing game , but we need to pass much better than on Saturday… like the speed of our D against Milroe 

This is encouraging but I’m old enough to remember the TCU game.

So we win?

1) Get healthy

2) Shore up the offensive line and gel at new positions

3) Get passing game going like earlier in the year

Not sure how much it means given we've played 7 teams ranked in the bottom 30 of total offense. Bottom of BigTen really sucks compared to SEC.

The question is what Bama shows up. Georgia-bama or Auburn-bama. We likely win one and lose one of those scenarios.

I really hate to say this but I think 2 things really hold Michigan back. No Zinter and no Zavier Worthy 

You forgot the most important metric: ESPN's FPI.

/s

(For the record, not that it matters cuz it doesn't, Michigan is 1st in FPI and Alabama is 6th.)

Man I hope Bill's numbers are right, and not the ominous note about Michigan underachieving.

I get a whole month to think of ways that things can go wrong, yay.

Worries: Bama has gotten better throughout the season. Milroe is much improved, and is extremely dangerous as a runner, something Michigan hasn't really faced a significant test in stopping. Georgia, for example, was rushing 3 and spying 2 and Bama was knifing through that at times. 

And of course Michigan's OL is a concern. Run blocking isn't great, but I think the real problem is that Michigan's pass blocking isn't good enough to make defenses respect deep passes, which allows defenders to keep closer to the LOS (some of this is pending Brian's review of the offense). And we lost our best OL and we don't *really* know how much that affects us yet. 

Also, you know that Saban will have some tough coverages for JJ to read. He's excellent, but he is capable of throwing a bad pass or two and that can be killer, as we saw last year.

Things that give me hope:

Michigan hasn't faced a running QB, but you know who *does* know the challenges a running QB brings? The team that Lamar Jackson plays on that happens to be coached by our coach's brother, whose D coordinator built our initial scheme that Jesse Minter is expertly running now. This would be a good time to leverage that connection for some tips. 

Michigan will also, unquestionably, give this game their full attention, to the exclusion of what comes next, and I hope we'll see good stuff. Michigan wants to build a lead and then sit on it, and it's not inconceivable; Milroe is dangerous and Bama can score points but they've also had games against mediocre teams like Auburn and Arkansas where they've scored less than 30. 

Also, while pass pro is a real worry, it's also true that JJ is really good. It's not inconceivable that he could show up for 250+ yards here, or even more if Michigan finds something they can break through.

And a last bit of hope:

Blake Corum is healthy. Michigan probably beats TCU if Corum was healthy last year, and then the game against Georgia would have been, if not a toss-up, at least a game Michigan had a chance to win.

Well, he's here. 

ESPN slappies all picking Bama. This is good to keep the team focused. They all remember TCU and came back to fix it. I expect a real battle. I like our chances. I love our coaching staff. JJ will have a good game. 

How do computers account for Zinter..

Now do 2022 TCU v UM.

This means zilch sorry

If our passing game opens up and JJ has a good night connecting we can do good things.  Our run game will work from time to time (so not worried about that) but we need the passing game and some creativity / unusual play calling to catch them off guard and keep them guessing.  I feel our D can keep us in the game.  I'm nervous as I personally feel Bama is the best of the bunch but we beat them and I think we really can take it all. 

My BPONE is back in full swing.  On the one hand Bama has sucked all year and if Milroe goes down it might even be an easy win.

On the other hand, you've got the coach notorious for underperforming in bowls against the coach famous for overperforming in bowls.

I don't care about the seeding, got to beat the best teams if you want to call yourself a champion. 

I'm actually really satisfied with the B1G threepete and 3 over OSU.  I just hope the players and coaches aren't.  And I know the core of JJ, Corum, Mike, et al., are not satisfied with just making the playoffs.  So I'm trying to be hopeful.

But what are those numbers without Zinter?

if Michigan's coaching has any problem, IMHO, it's a stubborn unwillingness to move away from our own strengths ... when those strengths aren't paying off. But if Michigan's coaches actually adapt their play calling to what the defense is doing, and what's available to them, I see no reason we can't do this.

It took us way too long to adapt to TCU's defense last year (see: Brian's frustration at their vulnerability to flea flickers), and we essentially never ran JJ or ran play action against OSU, Penn State, or Iowa this year. 

Instead, against both OSU and Penn State the clear coaching strategy was ... limit turnovers and other mistakes, don't offer the opponent short fields, and rely on our incredible defense to get us across the finish line. And that worked! But ... I don't have confidence that that'll be enough against Alabama.

Fortunately, I believe we have the weapons we need. Dear God, I hope our coaches take the safety wheels off and let us use them.

Fancy stats are irrelevant now. It's our prep and execution vs their prep and execution.

I hope we come out on top, but it's just that.

I like that it’s Bama and will get that level of respect but I feel like they deserve disrespekt the way their season has gone. We’ll see but this isn’t your slightly older brother’s Bama. 

I'm amazed by how negative this forum has become. And I'm the skeptic who before the game said we shouldn't assume we beat Iowa by default. 

But then I realize that this forum is full of the type of folks who watch ESPN and have just spent the last 24 hours being told that Bama is the greatest team on earth since the 1985 Bears. That type of brainwashing sinks in. I love all the "Bama today isn't the Bama that lost to Texas", but it sure is the Bama that should have lost (and not in a fluky way) to Auburn last week. The same Auburn that got whooped (and again in a not fluky way) by New Mexico State at home.

I saw a significant portion of Georgia-Bama yesterday and honestly the only reason you'd be terrified of Bama is if you thought Georgia were some kind of uber team, something for which there really isn't a ton of supporting evidence. The game was not especially well played.  Every year the media hypes that game up like some sort of battle of the titans, and some years it is but it certainly isn't always and yesterday there were mistakes all over the field.

In addition I feel like a lot of folks here are down on Michigan because they were so high on their own supply they thought Michigan was going to beat Iowa 57-0 or something. In reality Iowa might well be a better defense than any SEC defense. You certainly wouldn't see Iowa's D buckle like Georgia's D did yesterday in the 4th quarter. Michigan comfortably beat them in a game that was never in doubt. Don't ever take that for granted. I'd be worried if Iowa had scored 20 on Michigan, but they scored 0. The fact Michigan scored less than 30 isn't a huge issue for me. It's Iowa in a big game. 

Don't misconstrue what I say, Bama will be a hell of a test. But no worse than Ohio State. It's a different type of challenge for sure because Bama is a different type of team, but it's a solvable challenge. Do you think Milroe develops in 6 weeks into experienced Vince Young? Dude will be up and down, good and bad days, good and bad drives. If dude is even a bit off in the semifinal and our guys are on, Bama will be in a world of trouble.