How does this team rank historically?
Win over Ohio State got me thinking how would this team rank compared to our best teams in recent years. The 2013 team seemed like the best team since 1989 to me with extreme athleticism on the wings and an All American at point guard. But this year's team is just a machine.
Just one data set to put this in perspective, but comparing this year versus the 2013 team and the 2018 team (both made the finals):
https://barttorvik.com/team-history.php?team=Michigan
1. Our shooting offense and defense rates are in line with those two seasons.
2. We are definitely sloppier with the ball this year and we generate fewer turnovers.
3. We rebound a LOT better this year than under Beilein, especially on the offensive end, which likely mitigates some of the turnovers.
4. Free Throw rate is a little better this year than the other two. May be the Dickinson effect.
5. Our shooting splits (and 2PT% Defense) are all better across the board than the other two years. Again, mitigating the turnover situation as teams are forced to take bad shots and be "one and done", effectively asking as a turnover.
6. We are playing at a quicker tempo than any Beilein teams did.
What do you guys think? Where does this team rank compared to the other great Michigan teams? More turnovers, faster tempo but great rebounding and shooting. Elite 2pt defense. It's a different way to win than we are used to, but it's fun to compare/contrast to the best teams.
February 22nd, 2021 at 2:20 PM ^
0.4375
February 22nd, 2021 at 2:38 PM ^
I was going to go with 90215.
Yes.....yes I was.
February 22nd, 2021 at 3:25 PM ^
Wrong, this team is one of the greatest teams in history of history.
No but seriously I would say these are top 10ish:
1965, 1976, 1977, 1985,1989, 1992, 1993, 2013, 2014, 2018, 2021.
That's 11 but whatever.
February 22nd, 2021 at 7:49 PM ^
You're the owner of a lonely heart.
February 22nd, 2021 at 4:36 PM ^
I’ll take math problems for $200. What is 7 divided by 16?
February 22nd, 2021 at 9:06 PM ^
I honestly just pulled that number outta my... Hat. Kinda shocked it reduced so cleanly
February 22nd, 2021 at 7:13 PM ^
24.00 ... according to SRS (simple rating system, which is determined by point differential and strength of schedule) at sportsreference.com. Good enough (for now) for the best since '89 and 2nd all-time:
1. 1989 - 27.63 SRS
2. 2021 - 24.00
3. 1988 - 22.42
4. 1993 - 22.03
5. 1986 - 21.88
6. 2019 - 21.82
7. 2013 - 21.28
8. 2018 - 19.03
9. 1965 - 18.89
10. 2017 - 18.80
11. 1998 - 18.79
12. 1992 - 18.75
February 22nd, 2021 at 10:45 PM ^
Man, how Frieder wasn't fired sooner is unbelievable. Dude had incredible talent but couldn't win in March to save his life. The 85 team doesn't even make the list!
Thank goodness he left. He probably still recruits the Fab 5 but they never make the second weekend because he sits them all.
February 22nd, 2021 at 2:21 PM ^
According to RCMB, this team isn't even good and would lose to last year's MSU's team as well as last year's Michigan team
February 22nd, 2021 at 2:30 PM ^
The 2019/2020 MSU team was also the heavy favorite to win it all and probably would have had the tourney not been cancelled according to them. You know that team that finished 12-6 in January and February. Hottest team in the nation on a 6 game winning streak though *checks notes, sees Wisconsin with an 8 game winning streak.
Cassius would have averaged 45-15-20 and the Spartans would have averaged a margin of victory of 28 during the tournament.
February 22nd, 2021 at 3:22 PM ^
Can "Wuzzo" start trending yet?
February 22nd, 2021 at 3:31 PM ^
Phil - is that you?
February 22nd, 2021 at 4:01 PM ^
I saw that and laughed my ass off. Those guys are entertaining as hell; part because they are just so trashy most of the time, part because they are incredibly delusional about the importance of that university. Either way, if you're having a bad day I highly recommend a trip over to read the thoughts and musings of a lower breeding stock.
February 22nd, 2021 at 5:40 PM ^
The rare reasonable take in those threads just makes it even better. One guy will be like “Actually Michigan is really good and Juwan is a great coach” sandwiched between deranged takes about Martelli
February 22nd, 2021 at 2:24 PM ^
February 22nd, 2021 at 2:28 PM ^
No. Not when one is excited about the team and wants to share that excitement with other fans
February 22nd, 2021 at 3:18 PM ^
Then it ranks at the very top, because I am more excited about this team right now, than I am about those teams right now!
February 22nd, 2021 at 4:45 PM ^
Was thinking the same when I first read the post. I'll let you know in a few weeks. Still have the B1G and NCAA tournaments and anything can happen in just one game.
February 22nd, 2021 at 2:26 PM ^
The HC would like a moment with you to discuss the 92-93 season (M's last 1 seed I believe).
February 22nd, 2021 at 2:59 PM ^
This is where I would rank them. Best since 92. The 2013 and 2018 teams were great, but their runs to the finals came as a surprise, whereas this team is a legit Final-Four-probable. (Remains to be seen/proven, obviously.)
I also don't think you can necessarily compare season stats head-to-head, as the schedules and strengths thereof are not necessarily interchangeable. This team might be doing more against better competition, in other words.
Lastly, as much as I loved Beilein teams, I think Howard's are somehow more creative, more flexible, more innovative and more sustainable. There were times in which Beilein was too dogmatically rigid to fewer sets, and the offense would bog down and only get bailed out by hero ball. Whereas, I think Howard has more in the bag, and is more willing to find new tricks to solve new problems more quickly.
Results matter. And only time will tell. But sitting here today, I find this team to be the most fluid offensively and the most complete defensively...fancystats notwithstanding.
February 22nd, 2021 at 7:32 PM ^
Wasn’t the ‘13 team lead by NPOY Trey Burke and ranked #1 at times? Them making the finals before bracket announcement shouldn’t have been surprising. Now running the, in no particular order, gauntlet of Florida, Syracuse, Kansas, and peak havoc VCU brought some doubt to my mind, but according to official record they neither won or lost the tourney that year.
February 22nd, 2021 at 8:56 PM ^
The 2013 Michigan team is underrated.
It had 5 pro draft picks (Burke, Stauskas, Hardaway Jr., Robinson, McGary) in the starting 5 and a 6th (LeVert) off the bench.
If that layup drops in Crisler, there's a 4 way tie among Michigan, Indiana, Ohio State, and Sparty for 1st place in the Big Ten Regular Season. And with a win or two in Big Ten Tournament, Michigan is likely slotted no lower than a 2 seed. (Winning the Big Ten Tournament might have pushed Michigan to a 1 seed.)
That heartbreaking loss in Crisler and the subsequent loss to Wisconsin pushed Michigan out of 2/3 seed range into 4 seed.
To put things into perspective, Indiana got a #1 seed in the NCAAT because it finished outright winner of the Big Ten RS despite losing to #4 Wisconsin in the semifinals of the Big Ten Tournament.
February 22nd, 2021 at 2:27 PM ^
It's a fun question, but let's see how the rest of the season plays out before making any true historical comparisons.
Case in point: Bill Frieder's teams won back-to-back Big 10 titles in '84-'85 and '85-'86. The '84-'85 team was 26-4 overall, 16-2 in Big 10 play. If you had asked the same question at this point in 1985, the overwhelming answer would be "one of the best of all-time". But they lost in the 2nd round of the NCAA tourney (as did the '85-'86 team). So those squads aren't typically part of the conversation given their NCAA tourney fortunes, but they were historically great teams.
February 22nd, 2021 at 2:30 PM ^
Yep. Excellent post. +1
2021 Michigan is a great team but it needs to do well in the NCAAT to be remembered well.
That said, I hope this Michigan team becomes the first Michigan team to win the Big Ten Regular Season Championship *and* the Big Ten Tournament en route to NCAA success.
February 22nd, 2021 at 2:30 PM ^
i think the OP is wanted to make a comparison now to those others to date. clearly they are not comparimg titles, but rather play to date
February 22nd, 2021 at 2:39 PM ^
The 1988-1989 team is known as one of the all-time great Michigan teams. Looking back at their schedule, they were 17-5 on Feb. 23, 1989. They finished 3rd in the Big 10 regular season standings - nothing to be ashamed of given the teams (Indiana and Illinois) that finished ahead of them. They got throttled by 2nd place Illinois to finish the regular season before embarking on their magical tourney run.
So if you want to compare this squad with 1989's team, they appear better at the same juncture. And this year's Big 10 is probably deeper than 1988-89, with the huge caveat that it's so difficult to compare eras.
February 22nd, 2021 at 6:03 PM ^
Remember, the '89 team caught fire when Frieder took the ASU job and was then fired before the Tournament. Fisher has never been given enough credit for what he did in that situation IMO.
Then again, maybe Glen Rice just got pissed off.
Illinois was probably the best team in the country that year.
February 22nd, 2021 at 8:50 PM ^
Illinois was the best team in the country in 1989. Hence, Michigan beating that Illinois team in 1989 has always bothered the Illini.
February 22nd, 2021 at 2:57 PM ^
Iowa St...sigh. Seems like Frieder always did great in the regular season, but bombed in the tourney.
February 22nd, 2021 at 3:43 PM ^
Frieder's problem was that he didn't step back and let Fisher coach in the NCAA tournaments.
February 22nd, 2021 at 3:59 PM ^
Frieder was the worst tourney coach in the history of tourney coaches. No one should have been able to match up with Tarpley, Relford and Steve Stoyko!
February 22nd, 2021 at 5:42 PM ^
I appreciate Stoyko as much as the next guy, but Butch Wade was a terror. Probably the best 5/5 (points/rebounds) guy ever.
February 23rd, 2021 at 1:07 PM ^
Now I feel like an idiot. Can't believe I forgot Butch Wade. Dude was a monster.
February 22nd, 2021 at 6:22 PM ^
Those two Frieder mid-'80s teams had shaky outside shooting (or none, in the case of the forwards) in the starting lineup. As well, the conference was horrible both years.
1985: Illinois (a #3 seed) got to the Sweet 16.
1986: Sparty (a #5 seed) got to the Sweet 16, where they had an extended "Spartan Bob" (referencing the infamous Spartan Bob game of a few years back) moment that wasn't in their favor. They were ahead in the game when the clock stopped running for quite a bit. Kansas came back and won and they might not have been able to do so without "Jayhawk" Bob.
That's it. Just a few years later (1989) the Big Ten had four teams in the Sweet 16 and two in the Final Four.
Frieder's psychology might not have been suited to high-pressure games, either. He never did much at Arizona State afterward.
February 22nd, 2021 at 10:32 PM ^
Indiana won it all in 1987, so not a total Big Ten dry spell.
February 22nd, 2021 at 2:30 PM ^
This Michigan team is very good right now but let's see how they play down the stretch before anointing them as the kings of all time yet. UM has had some great teams in the past but it all depends how they roll in the big tournament at the end
February 22nd, 2021 at 2:31 PM ^
Need to hang some banners before you can have that conversation.
February 22nd, 2021 at 2:39 PM ^
UMfan21--
i agree with you team compares favorably in many ways to date. I too share your enthusiasm about this team. They are fun to watch, as many other teams have in the past. It will be fun to watch the remaimder of the season unfold. Here's hoping we can look back and see you as the one who called it!!!
GO BLUE!
February 22nd, 2021 at 2:39 PM ^
3.14159265358979323846264338
February 22nd, 2021 at 2:58 PM ^
327950288
February 22nd, 2021 at 2:41 PM ^
Your horse is galloping ahead of the cart faster than Secretariat.
February 22nd, 2021 at 3:21 PM ^
“…Secretariat is widening now. He is moving like a tremendous machine …”
February 22nd, 2021 at 5:29 PM ^
One of the most memorable quotes in sports broadcasting history.
February 22nd, 2021 at 6:04 PM ^
Replays of that race still gives me chills! What a horse he was!!
February 22nd, 2021 at 2:45 PM ^
I think the lack of nonconference is messing with the fancy stats and I don't really trust the historical comparisons. I don't think this big ten is better than the 2013 big ten let alone the best conference of all time (kenpom era). Which leaves the very unsatisfactory eye test. I'd probably rank the teams as 2013,2015(lost to kentucky in e8),2021,2016 (lost to oregon), 2018 in terms of modern era. Having not watched the teams before that live closely, would have to do well in the NCAA tourney to pass either fab five team or the 89 championship.
February 22nd, 2021 at 3:26 PM ^
The 2017 team that lost Oregon seems to get lost in the mix a lot. The way we ended the season beating teams like Purdue, Wisconsin, and Louisville was quite impressive. Have to think that if we had Yaklich that year we may have gone to the Final Four. Ranking the teams since our first tournament under JB I would go top to bottom:
- 2013
- 2014
- 2018
- 2017
- 2019
- 2012
- 2011
- 2020
- 2016
- 2009
- 2015
- 2010
The floor for 2021 would be right around where 2019 is (#5) and the ceiling of course is #1
February 22nd, 2021 at 3:52 PM ^
Surprisingly- the 2019 team had the highest adjusted EM on Kenpom of any of the years (just above '13)- the memory of them is just tainted by losing to State thrice and running into the coldest of shooting nights against the top defensive team that year in Texas Tech.
February 22nd, 2021 at 4:46 PM ^
That 2019 team just lacked a player who you can count on to create their own shot and get you a bucket even when the offense just isn't flowing and you're hit with a drought against a great defensive team. This is critical especially when you have a ball dominant PG in Zavier Simpson who can't reliably shoot jump shots. We wanted Poole or Iggy to be that but they just never became that.
This year we have Livers. 2018 had Mo. 2017 had Derrick Walton. 2014 had Stauskas. 2013 had Burke.