Hoops: What is Michigan missing/ what do they need to compete next year for a championship?
Watching the Final Four, but not really into it all that much other than I’d like to see K go home without a title. Kind of thinking of what Michigan needs to compete next year? Villanova was missing a key player and they play small ball. Nova has a lot of upper classmen. Kansas has a balanced roster but has a lot of upper classmen, same as NC. Duke is pretty young and not much depth. It’s hard to answer I know without knowing what the decisions are with Hunter, Moussa and Caleb. Kansas gets 12.5 ppg and 33 minutes a game from two transfers. Manek has been the key addition for NC this year. Duke is loaded with top 75 talent. Baylor was loaded last year with a team full of transfers. I look at these teams and I find myself pondering of what might have been if Livers doesn’t get hurt.
I don’t think Moussa and Hunter will both go but if they do, we will need some portal help for the post. Other than that, some questions at the guard spots and shooting. What are y’all’s thoughts on what we need next year and I guess maybe beyond that as well to compete?
Michigan needs a 2 / combo guard regardless of who leaves. Can make a case we will have enough centers & PFs assuming one of Hunter or moussa stay
Wow, that was a big time 3 by Love
Will Nantz stop with the K blubber
Glad to see Duke get knocked out frankly...Tired of hearing about Coach K. Losing twice to UNC at the end of his career's got to sting.
Should be interesting final - not a fan of either team, but I like Davis more than I like Self, so go Tarheels?
Yeah, I’m ok with Davis so far. Not a Tar Heel fan but he seems like an ok guy. Self is a cheating snake like Kansas always has. Ultimately, I’m glad to see K gone finally.
I pretty much completely agree with both of these takes above.
Good riddance to rat face.
They are missing exceptional guard play.
We need a general upgrade in athleticism. Collins, Bufkin, Diabate and Jett are a pretty good start. Need guys that can knock down shots and make plays.
Michigan needs a perimeter player that can get and make his own shot. Especially if Hunter leaves. DJ was starting to come into his own as this player for the team later in the season but the injuries unfortunately hampered him for the tourney.
Whether it is a guard or a wing player Michigan desperately needs someone who can create in iso and get some buckets when the offense bogs down. All season long prolonged scoring draughts killed this team. Even as the defense improved to keep us in games long periods with no FG's were too much to overcome in a lot of games.
Honestly? At this point with our program what we need in March is probably just a couple bounces/hot shooting days/luck.
Our two NCG appearances were great teams who benefited from some pretty lucky moments to get there at times (Burke, Poole).
In 2017 if Walton’s step back 3 goes in and we beat Oregon, maybe we go even further?
2021, if a Smith 3 or Wagner 3 late go down vs UCLA what happens when we are in the Final Four? (Or if Livers is available?)
Tangibly speaking, we need a guard who can take a game over when needed. Burke did that, Walton did that. Simpson didn’t have to do that because we were an elite defensive team and had shooters. This year we didn’t have an elite guard or elite shooters. It’s pretty remarkable we were pretty damn close to an Elite Eight team with the outside shooting we had.
I agree with you on the circumstances. I look back to 2014 when we got beat by UK. If McGary was playing I’m thinking we go along way that year too. Livers last year was another one where we might have had a legit chance to win it. Seems like we can’t catch some of the key breaks we need.
It really is a crapshoot come March. If Harrison doesn’t hit that shot in 2014, we probably go and beat Wisconsin and Uconn and win it all. If the refs aren’t identifying as Stevie Wonder we have a championship banner hanging for 2013.
In the same breath though, if Burke doesn’t hit a shot from the parking lot we look back at 2013 as a major disappointment with just a Sweet 16 appearance. If Poole doesn’t hit that 3 or if Houston goes better than 1-4 down the stretch from the FT line we only make the 2nd round in 2018.
The fact that we are in those situations year after year shows our program is where it needs to be. A top level guard and 3pt shooters is what will give us the best odds in those roll of the dice games. Crazy to think we are 2 shots going our way away from having 4 Final Fours in 9 years; but are also 2 shots not going our way from not having any Final Fours in the last 9 years
I still can't believe that Walton step back didn't go in...
If Livers had played, we would have beaten UCLA easily. Even if he hadn’t stopped all the Juzang crap shots from falling (I think he would have impacted many of them), he would have hit a few 3s that would have put us over the top. We couldn’t buy a shot in that game.
Michigan needs to get speed and shooters. Every team in the final 4 attacks the rim relentlessly. Then it’s kick out passes to shoot 3’s. Pulling up at the three point line to run plays isn’t a formula for success. It works in the Big Ten but not in the Tournament. Attack, attack and attack more to put defenses on their heels.
Watching last night’s game, we are not as fast nor athletic as NC or Duke. That game was in fast forward all game. We need more speed and definitely a couple of shooters to knock down the three balls. We also need a backup PG behind Frankie to step forward
I just realized that the final final 4 of K’s career has turned into the Roy Williams victory lap as his two former teams stole the spotlight!
They need a guard that can create his own jump shot off the dribble
Just want to interrupt this thread to say
Fuck You, Ratface!
Carry on.
Shooting, shooting, shooting.
If we had a good PG who could score, drive to the basket and pass better, Michigan could have beaten Nova and possibly made it play KU in the final 4.
What do they need to compete next year for a championship?
The next Glen Rice.
Glen was such a great scorer, although he wasn’t a great creator of his shot until his later Heat and Hornet days, his picture perfect shot, coupled with a nice off dribble jumper and great post game and automatic free throw shooter and ultimately his size he was virtually unstoppable his last two years here. Can we clone him???
Need a sharpshooter like Gillespie (at Villanova) and another that can create their own shot. Michigan was young this past year and we all assumed they would replace some very good players from the season prior
They really need some consistent 3 point shooting as well as need to get more athletic in the backcourt.
This is a hard question to answer given the current uncertainty of who's staying and leaving. Let's assume Hunter and Diabate leave and Houstan stays. In that scenario, we're very thin in multiple areas: center, guard, and shooting generally.
Center: Only have true freshman Tarris Reed. Reed is 6'9" or 6'10" and a legit 250. He's undersized for the position and not much of a rim protector. He has an advanced offensive repertoire and can create good looks for himself, but doesn't always convert those looks. I watched him in 3 games the last few days at the Geico Nationals and it was frustrating the good looks he was missing. He won't be like Hunter last year who was automatic on good looks he creates for himself. Having Reed as our only center is a bad scenario. He can probably play 15 min a game off the bench, but we need someone else there. Have heard rumors of Johns coming back, but that's not close to ideal either. We need a legit center from the portal.
Guard: Frankie Collins looks like he can be the real deal, however, is Dug McDaniel the answer as the backup? Is Kobe Bufkin going to be ready to play heavy minutes at the 2? Is Barnes someone can play minutes at the 2? I think Sam Sessoms could be a decent piece to provide minutes at both spots
Shooting: If Kobe, Houstan, and Williams can be reliable 35%+ shooters from I think we should be fine, but anything less than that could create some issues. Hopefully someone like Tschetter, Barnes, or Jett can take a step up and provide some shooting. Once again, Sessoms would help in that area
It feels very weird in Juwan's 4th year that we feel weak and uncertain in so many areas, but I have faith. I'm curious about what this team is going to potentially turn into post-Hunter
They need some athleticism at the wing, some more consistent production defensively from the PG spot (Jones got better there as the year progressed but it was still a spot), and more consistent shooting from deep. They probably also need some luck - every team that wins a title has a game or two where they could have lost but something broke right for them.
This is about getting past the Sweet 16:
1. Michigan can win with Collins at the point. At the #1
2. Michigan can win with Bufkin making a sophomore leap that is reasonable to expect. If this does not happen there are plenty of other options for others stepping up-Jett, Jace or even Isaiah. At the #2
3. Michigan can win with a leap from Caleb, Twill, Jace, Jett, Isaiah. At the #3
4. Michigan can win with Caleb or Moussa making a reasonably expected leap. Tschetter could provide terrific shot in the arm. At the #4
5. Michigan can win with Moussa. At the #5
I do not believe Michigan can get to the Elite 8 with Dickinson-thus he was not included above. His ceiling and floor are nearly identical. He has maxed out what he has to offer here. I truly wish him the best as he moves on.
Michigan is in depth jeopardy at #1 and #5. Michigan can go small at 5 but have few good options at 1-unless McDaniel comes in more ready to play than most expect. I like Reed a lot but coming in and contributing right away is too much to ask.
This little exercise helped define some issues for me. The transfer portal offers some attractive options. Nigel Pack and Taylor Funk could provide experience/maturity/leadership to this very young roster and much needed reliable, high level outside shooting. There are surely other excellent portal options.
Totally disagree with you on the Dickinson part.
Michigan could have made the Elite 8 this season, with Dickinson, if some of the numerous layup misses went down and if we shot better from the outside.
Just because he is limited athletically, doesn't mean we have seen in ceiling. He is a problem for others in the paint. He commands attention and double teams. Get some shooters from the portal and you create a headache for teams deciding who to defend.
He probably will never be an NBA player given his lack of athleticism required to defend in the NBA. But to say that he has maxed out what he has to offer here is nuts. You think he won't improve by playing more basketball?
Agree with most of this. Think even if Collins doesn't develop into a high-level shooter, the speed, athleticism, and high-level passing ability will be enough to make a him a dangerous creator, especially in transition.
Minor quibble: Jace isn't a 2. Doesn't have the ballhandling skills on offense and is better suited at defending 4's and being a help defender than defending 2's. Agree on Bufkin though and I don't think it's even as much of a leap as much as getting consistent reps. While his defense is much-maligned, it's significantly better than Stauskas or Poole were as freshmen.
I don't expect Caleb to be back, but Jett has the ability to hit open shots and should be an upgrade on D. If not, there is always the portal. And Terrance Williams improved significantly as a shooter last year (still not a great shooter, but he hit 20 3's at a 39% rate after making just 1 all year as a freshman and improved his FT shooting from 61% to 75%. Another bump could make him a more viable option at the 3).
The 5 is most worrisome, particularly if Moussa and Dickinson leave, and perhaps they bring Johns back. More likely they go to the transfer portal. I do wonder if they get funky and we see some things like T-Will or Jace at the 5. In any case, there's a good chance Frankie is the number 1 option on offense next year.
We need shooters and great guard play.
Compete for a championship?? Big ten massive. A lot of guys leaving makes it wide open. Of course if our guys leave too then nope. Cockburn apparently can stay for his 9th year?
More athleticism and someone who can create their own shot. If you noticed during the midnight madness no one could really land a good dunk or seemed to have hops, this might not seem like a big thing but if you watched during the season athletic players gave us trouble.
Barnes, Bufkin and Frankie have that athleticism. Didn’t see a ton of Bufkin and next to none of Barnes last year. It’ll be interesting going forward to see what changes are coming with style of play.
We need a shooting guard. And everyone to play at their best. We have a good team just didn't get everyone playing to their talent potential.
Villanova this year was a very good team with good players at every position but no superstars, even though gillespie was the clear best player he wasn't an nba talent, a lot like eli brooks but a point guard instead if a shooting guard.
I think hunter stays although sounds like the insider reporters are saying it's really 50/50. Right now our starting shooting guard is kobe buflin which is the most unproven of our five position and where coaches are looking for a transfer the most. I think frankie collins at point guard is good. Caleb at the three should be good too if he gets back on track for what a five star recruit should look like. Terrance williams at the four sounds good to me and Dickinson/diabate at the five should be a 75% chance at least one of them stays. That's a final four starting five talent wise and we have a ton of talent on the bench should be able to find 2-3 rotation players in there.
Again assuming everyone gels together and continued improving year to year. Lots of talented very good teams like gonzaga that didnt play their best games in the tournament and went home early. And UNC is now an all time classic example of a team that didn't do amazing in the conference season but put together their best run at tournament time and are in the championship game now.
I'm not sure why Bufkin couldn't get more consistent minutes (to be fair, some of his defensive lapses were really rough) but he flashed enough were I think he can at least play a consistent role next year. He was one of the few players who could get to the rim and finish without a screen. He had some really good flashes in one on one defense too. And while the shot wasn't falling, the form is pure and he was a great shooter in HS.
I understand they want some insurance because there's no depth there and Barnes may be better suited at the 3/not ready, but I think Bufkin should and will play a big role next year.
The issues we will have from the portal will be just like with football, we will most likely have to go after grad transfers, unless someone is transferring from a really high academic based university. I scroll through the portal and I see lots of kids that can either shoot or have really good size and would potentially fill holes but then I immediately start thinking “yeah, they aren’t transferring from LSU (name athletics based school) and coming here”.
Elite shooters, Trey Burke at point guard, etc, to make defenses melt in a fiery inferno of inside and outside pressure.
Assuming Moussa, Hunter, and Caleb go, realistically it's tough to see Michigan being an elite team next year barring some high-level transfers.
Here are some things Michigan needs to improve:
- Athletic, versatile wings. This was THE biggest difference from last year. I think even if Houstan had been a more consistent offensive player, losing Chaundee, Franz, and Livers (all three of whom are on NBA rosters, Livers has started to show out in Detroit after being injured and Franz is a first-team All-Rookie lock in a loaded draft class) crippled Michigan defensively. It exposed the fact that Brooks and Jones, while smart, strong defenders, lack elite footspeed and size. You can get away with not having size at POA (see: Simpson, Zavier) or elite footspeed (see: Morris, Darius), but both are tough. Jett Howard is more in this mold than Houstan, Terrance Williams is still very much a mixed bag on defense but he has the tools to emerge into that 2-4 switchable guy who rotates at a high level. And while Bufkin had some ROUGH moments on D, he also had some very encouraging ones. In fact, I thought most of his mistakes were freshman stuff related to strength and rotations, but his lateral quickness (which some had questioned) and length looked really effective.
- On that note, while Collins is undersized, him turning into a pest on defense who can hang in the shirts of guys who victimized Michigan with pull-ups will help. Even if you're not big enough to contest 6'5" guys, if you don't give them space you can make life hell. The model here (as has been written about on this blog) is the old UConn/Louisville teams who played aggressive POA defense despite starting multiple guards that were 6'0" on a good day (and both won national championships doing so). UConn is instructive, as they were able to lock up the Harrison twins with 6'0" guards Shabazz Napier and Ryan Boatright.
- Collins needs to become a very good pick and roll player. Tarris Reed seems very talented, but betting on him (or really any freshman) to be as polished as Hunter Dickinson off the bat is tough. They will probably use him on a lot of pick and pops. If Michigan is able to go 5 out, Collins has the speed to get to the rim at will, even when teams go under screens. He does need to improve finishing. The Colorado State game was VERY encouraging in that regard, as he showed body control, touch, and the ability to read and manipulate defenders. His passing and playmaking to me isn't a question at all. Even early in the year, his reads were often good but his teammates weren't able to get on his level.
- Bufkin needs to develop into a secondary scoring option. His form looks great and some of the shooting woes may have been related to sporadic minutes, but he needs to start knocking them down. If so, the shades of a three-level scorer are there. This will take pressure off of Collins and the bigs to create offense.
TL;DR: some combination of Jett and Jace Howard, Terrance Williams, and Isaiah Barnes need to turn into a facsimile of the elite wing defense Michigan got from Franz, Livers, Chaundee. Even 60% of that would be a huge improvement from this year.
But more than anything else, the next couple of years are largely going to be dependent on the development of Collins and Bufkin.
The concept of Caleb going pro at this stage of his development seems absurd to even consider.
I’m curious about this as well. If there were to be a Blue-Maize spring game tomorrow and I’m picking players for my side, Houstan isn’t even in the top six. (D Jones, F Collins, E Brooks, M Diabate, H Dickinson, and T Williams would all be ahead of him if the game is tomorrow.) I’m truly curious as to who thinks he’s a lottery pick at the moment, when he’s not even one of the better players at Michigan. Sure, the NBA drafts on potential, not just performance, but there needs to be better performance than he has had.
A lot of things may happen, but C Houstan making an NBA squad this year isn’t one of them. He was getting minutes this last season based on potential (not performance), and we would have gotten more productive use of those minutes if T Williams had been given them.
The real question is which of our bigs are returning. You could tell me both Diabate and Dickinson are returning or going pro, and I really wouldn’t give you much of an argument either way.
Michigan needs to improve on guard size and more importantly athleticism.
The team needs two or three, 3 and D players. The 20-21 team had Livers, Brown, and Wagner who all played excellent defense and could shoot. Beilein teams often had 3 or 4 guys who could shoot 3s near 40%. 3pt shooting percentage is probably the most important stat in the game these days.
coach K is fine with 5 titles and most wins.
I want to see Xavier teach Frankie the hook shot over the summer.