Heisman Odds for 2023: Joe Milton Ahead of JJ and Blake

Submitted by BursleyHall82 on January 11th, 2023 at 11:56 AM

Several sites are posting Heisman odds for 2023. Here's the one from Fansided.

Reigning champ Caleb Williams of USC is obviously the favorite but it gets a little silly when you start looking down the list. JJ McCarthy and Blake Corum are tied for the 13th-best odds, below Joe Milton, who is ninth. Donovan Edwards shows up nowhere. JJ and Blake are also behind the new quarterbacks from Penn State and Ohio State.

The preseason favorite almost never wins the Heisman (the only time it's happened in our generation was Marcus Mariota in 2014), so it won't be Williams again. Corum's touches will likely be reduced this season because of Edwards - and he is coming off an injury - but this still seems like a lack of respect that will hopefully fuel him.

mGrowOld

January 11th, 2023 at 12:07 PM ^

"but this still seems like a lack of respect that will hopefully fuel him"

Late in the 4th quarter Michigan, up by two, faces a critiical 4th & two on the OSU 47 yard line.  Coach Harbaugh (hopefully) pulls Blake aside and says "do you remember when fansided listed your Heisman odds lower than Joe Milton?   Do you remember how that felt, that disrespect that fansided showed you that fateful day?  Now go out there and pick up that first down AND SHOW FANSIDED YOU SHOULD'VE HAD BETTER ODDS TO WIN THE HEISMAN THAN JOE MILTON!!!!!!"

MRunner73

January 11th, 2023 at 12:08 PM ^

These kind of projections are meaningless, especially rating new QBs at OH State and Penn State.

If the Vol's offensive line isn't that good, Joe Milton ends up on his back more often than not.

mgeoffriau

January 11th, 2023 at 12:15 PM ^

I think JJ will be really, really good, but this is not an offense that will produce a Heisman QB candidate. And coming off an injury, splitting more carries with Edwards (I expect), I don't see Corum as a top candidate either. Say whatever you want about Milton's chances, but this doesn't seem crazy to have UM's candidates projected pretty low.

duffman is thr…

January 11th, 2023 at 7:34 PM ^

Harbaugh was able to use Luck in a way that he was a heisman finalist. Stanford still maintained their physical style and running game. I don’t think it’s impossible, but yeah probably unlikely. I guess we will have to watch spring and fall and see if there’s any reason to believe we will focus more on the passing game than we have been. 

LeCheezus

January 11th, 2023 at 4:54 PM ^

I’m not 100% sure if you’re serious, but the answer is a betting exchange like Betfair.  This is essentially P2P betting, unlike traditional oddsmakers.  These exchanges allow for wagers on both sides of what is normally a one sided wager (usually most futures markets).  As long as there is someone willing to “Buy” Milton as a Heisman winner, you can “sell” that he won’t.  Vig is usually much lower on these so if Milton is +2000 to win, he will probably be something like -2075 not to win (the exchange charges a small vig to provide the service).

UMfan21

January 11th, 2023 at 12:18 PM ^

JJ and Corum are going to cannibalize each others heisman chances.  That's just the way it is unfortunately.

When was the last time team mates were finalists prior to Mac Jones/DeVonta Smith?

dragonchild

January 11th, 2023 at 12:20 PM ^

Your usual reminders:

  • HAWT TAKES are not about accuracy; they're about clicks.  The goal is not to be prophetic but for a bunch of suckers to say things like "What a joke!" or "I am curious to know what they've seen" and so forth.
  • Even if correct, for the sake of argument, let's keep in mind what the Heisman actually is, and how often Heisman winners excel at the next level.  For starters, chew on the fact that Michigan has the only defensive player ever to win the award in its 87-year history, and what it took for that to happen.  No interior lineman has ever won it, for a game that is "won in the trenches".

So, sports shock jocks are saying outrageous things to get attention, over a joke of an award whose objectivity has never been any better than highly dubious.  Also: water is wet.  More at 11.

TrueBlue2003

January 11th, 2023 at 12:25 PM ^

This makes some sense.  Michigan has multiple good players that would split votes / impact.

It's a QB award for QBs that put up stats and Milton will likely put up stats in that Tennessee offense.  JJ probably won't in our offense.  Just the way it is.

JT4104

January 11th, 2023 at 12:28 PM ^

Michigan doesn't throw enough for a QB to have even the slightest shot....JJ would need to go 2800 passing, 28/5 td to int and probably 700 rushing with 10tds to even get to NYC. Not happening in this offense

lilpenny1316

January 11th, 2023 at 12:29 PM ^

I understand we had to pass out of necessity in the bowl game, but JJ showed enough in the last three games that he can win big games. We just can't put him in a trophy case until late November and pray for the same results.

Let him throw it 30 times a game and win in Happy Valley and he should be firmly in the conversation.

TrueBlue2003

January 11th, 2023 at 12:35 PM ^

Drew Allar is PSU quarterback.  He was a five star I think, and played some this past year when Clifford was hurt.  He's not a comp to JJ in terms of style but he's similar to JJ this past year in the sense that he is a true soph five star that played a little bit as a freshman. 

But Allar doesn't have competition I don't think.  He will be the starter.

OSU, dunno, but they'll find someone.

Tom in AnnArbor

January 11th, 2023 at 12:44 PM ^

If any Mich player wins it, I want it to be JJ as I think it would mean the team's ceiling would be higher.  JJ getting off the charts passing and *rushing* stats would allow us to compete with the CFP type teams.  

IMO, JJ running the ball against TCU in the first half would have been the difference to winning that game.  You can't run Veer and RPOs and the QB not being a threat to run it.

Nickel

January 11th, 2023 at 12:46 PM ^

So you've taken the free money and put some actual cash on the line right?

The odds seem right to me. No Michigan QB is going to put up eye popping numbers in our current offense, and a healthy Edwards is going to get some of those carries that Corum had this year.

MgoBlueprint

January 11th, 2023 at 12:55 PM ^

Milton has the ability and the offense to make it happen. Same goes for The Don and Blake. stetson made it to New York so the offense shouldn’t totally take JJ out of the mix. He would have to run the table again though.

Gustavo Fring

January 11th, 2023 at 1:04 PM ^

If the odds are that good I'd take Corum for sure.  JJ is probably hurt a bit by the fact that Michigan doesn't throw the ball a ton but I think they will throw a lot more next year.  Caleb Williams and possibly even Milton are likely to have bigger numbers because of their offenses.

But Corum at 13th?  Also if Donovan Edwards doesn't show up at all that's a good flier bet.  For all we know he becomes even more productive than Corum as a dual threat.  In any case I'm sure his odds will look a lot better midseason than now.

I remember after last season Cade was +2000 and JJ was less than +50000 and I thought..."even if you think Cade is 75% likely to start that seems wildly mispriced?".  I wish I had acted then lol, could have locked in a profit by the end of September.