Is Harbaugh trying to fool Ohio into thinking Michigan can/will only throw Rock?
A theory bandied about is that Harbaugh wants to establish tendencies and get it on film that Michigan only throws Rock. The objective is to fool Ohio into thinking Michigan can't/won't throw Paper and Scissors. If that really is Harbaugh's secret plan,
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Shouldn't he give Ohio a little more credit? Would Ohio honestly not prepare for the possibility of Michigan playing Paper and Scissors?
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Suppose Michigan does save Scissors and Paper for Ohio. Wouldn't Michigan be better prepared to run Rock, Paper, and Scissors on Ohio if Michigan already got the bugs out by running them against everyone else first? Is it not the case that trick plays have a high failure rate but true gains come from repetition?
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Wouldn't playing Paper and Scissors against early season opponents turn a few tight games into blowouts, which means more rest for the starters and more reps for the subs? Isn't depth, player development, and a broader allocation of scarce playing time better for the team than the alternative?
My personal opinion is that Michigan really does throw Rock on everyone else while saving Paper and Scissors for Ohio. Also, I think the Ohio approach is smarter.
I'm immensely curious to read what the better minds of MGB have to say on this matter.
October 10th, 2022 at 2:15 AM ^
This is the logic every year. "We're keeping it vanilla so we don't show our hand" or whatever variation of that gets thrown around. It never happens. Harbaugh is going to try to run the ball. If it works, he'll keep running the ball. If it doesn't work, he'll also probably keep running the ball. You just have to hope the run works, or that the few play action deep shots are successful. In his mind, the wrinkle is what blocking scheme the run game will have from week to week. I don't think we're ever going to come out with 4 wide and sling it around out the gate, or see JJ ripping off run after run with the open read option pulls that are seemingly always there for the taking.
October 10th, 2022 at 2:18 AM ^
you realize michigan currently has an SP+ top 10 offense in the country at the moment and threw for over 300 yards yesterday, right?
October 10th, 2022 at 2:51 AM ^
They were tied at 10 points at half against Indiana, acting like everything is great is just living in denial. Indiana has a bad defense, Penn State has a good defense.
October 10th, 2022 at 8:22 AM ^
Iowa has a good defense also. Saying a team is tied at half or losing at half, then they win by 2+ tds....is a weak argument. A win is a win
October 10th, 2022 at 8:56 AM ^
You also need to factor in what happened to coach Hart here. That was concerning for them I'm sure as Coach Hart is an important voice on this team. It's hard to refocus on the game right away after stuff like that happens.
October 10th, 2022 at 8:56 AM ^
That's why you play four quarters. UGA vs. Missouri and all that.
October 10th, 2022 at 8:58 AM ^
That's why they play 4 quarters.
October 10th, 2022 at 5:02 AM ^
Imagine how good we’d be if we weren’t running up the middle on 1st down 90% of the time, telegraphing our plays (100% run rate out of pistol formation for example), and if we decided to utilize some of the weapons we have on the outside.
Nobody is saying the offense isn’t good. People are simply questioning why we’re handcuffing ourselves constantly.
October 10th, 2022 at 5:14 AM ^
Or if Anthony was actually on the field. Andrel your up-25 yd catch. Now get back on the bench.
October 10th, 2022 at 8:38 AM ^
Andrel Anthony's mysterious absence since last year's MSU game is astonishing. The kid is a good blocker and is a home run WR. Really thought he'd be the next Braylon after that game.
October 10th, 2022 at 8:20 AM ^
Michigan opened the game Saturday with three straight passing plays. They threw on about half of the first downs in the first half.
This narrative is tired and doesn’t match the facts.
Michigan finished the Indiana game with more than twice as much total yardage as Indiana, and, incidentally, about 2/3 of their yardage came via the air. They were a deflected end zone INT away and a blocked chip shot field goal away from a 30 point win.
October 10th, 2022 at 8:26 AM ^
I was just about to make this very point..... It's almost like some of these people didn't watch the game.
October 10th, 2022 at 9:24 AM ^
they watched and saw Bo yelling at the ref's and Bill Mallory was....... or maybe it was Lee Corso.
October 10th, 2022 at 8:59 AM ^
CJ's drop might have been six too. EDIT: Although, I guess they scored on that drive anyway.
October 10th, 2022 at 9:50 AM ^
My main complaint -- and I don't have many-- is our play calling on 3rd or 4th down and 1yd. or less to go. We almost never call a QB sneak. With a TE lined up behind to give a push, that play is almost automatic. Instead, we line up in pistol and try to run inside, failing on a fairly high percentage. (The chance of serious injury to the QB on a sneak is very slight. )
October 10th, 2022 at 6:11 AM ^
JJ's 300 yards was a damn fine accomplishment. It certainly shows what he's capable of when given the chance.
One has to wonder if that SP+ top 10 offense rating isn't due in large part to having played their first three games against a pushover, a punching bag, and a tomato can.
October 10th, 2022 at 7:10 AM ^
Hey that tomato can has 2 FBS wins!
October 10th, 2022 at 7:18 AM ^
Correct me if I'm wrong, but doesn't SP+ take schedule strength into account?
October 10th, 2022 at 7:23 AM ^
You are correct. SP+ isn't perfect but it's one of, if not the best tool we have for controlling for strength of opposing defenses.
October 10th, 2022 at 9:25 AM ^
Lol stats still padded by the worst non-conference schedule in the country. And most of those passes against Indiana were probably less than 10 yards. His point still stands about running the ball first and foremost no matter what.
October 10th, 2022 at 10:27 AM ^
It still stands after being corrected that just under half of first downs were passing plays?
October 10th, 2022 at 10:58 AM ^
Yes. And it was the same old offense. What wrinkles in the passing game did you see? Look, I'm not saying it's a good plan or bad plan, I'm just saying it's not window dressing. Passing for 300 yards against IU was bc they're a dead last pass defense in the conference. We spent a bunch of early downs (especially in the 1H) running the ball while IUs LBs were running straight downhill at the snap. Harbaugh's going to do that whether we're playing Colorado State or Georgia. My days of hoping we'll shock someone and come out slinging are long gone.
October 10th, 2022 at 5:05 AM ^
I thought we play Penn St Saturday?
October 10th, 2022 at 7:17 AM ^
It never happens.
Except that it has. We have an innovative game plan for OSU every year.
October 10th, 2022 at 9:04 AM ^
That's not because the coaches are saving something. It's because they're doing what they think will most reliably maximize Michigan's chances of winning.
Harbaugh clearly does not care about style points. He wants to win. If he thinks he can do that by running the ball up the gut for 4 yards every single play, he'll do it and smile ear to ear the entire time.
Against OSU, that will not work, so they have to go to other things. See the 2nd half of the OSU game last year. How many times did McNamara throw the ball?
October 10th, 2022 at 8:17 AM ^
You all constantly crying about offense have become insufferable.
I beg you to go root for a team that throws a ton. Hell, root for Indiana! They're scrappy, they LOVE to throw, and they like to play fast.
I'm sure you'll never have anything to complain about.
Or just root for OSU if that's the one team you constantly want to compare Michigan to...as if every other school in the country (Bama and Georgia included) looks like OSU on offense right now.
I'm not joking. You all are miserable and have made it your life's mission to make everyone else miserable.
And before you respond...NO, I'M NOT DEFENDING MICHIGAN'S OFFENSE. I'm simply calling you a herb for constantly crying about Michigan not throwing enough, or playing Andrel Anthony enough, or running up the middle.
But I will provide 3 counterpoints...that unless you're in Schembechler Hall, you have no response for.
1. JJ just threw it 36 times. 10 more than CJ Stroud did last week.
2. I wish Anthony would play more too...but I'm going to assume Ron Bellamy knows more about WRs than I do (you should do the same), and witnessing with my own eyes how our WRs are expected to block, maybe that's a reason Anthony doesn't get more snaps? But for me, or you, to question Bellamy as if you have more info than he does...it's fucking ridiculous. He's not trying to sabotage his employer and alma mater.
3. Yes we run a lot up the middle and yes if we hurry to the line on "and 1"...it's going to be a dive play.
Blake Corum is a legit Heisman candidate, leads the nation in TDs, and has 735 in 5 games!! WTF are you whining about?!
Also, not so fun fact...Corum has more negative runs running wide than he doesn't running up the middle AND he has more ypc running between the tackles than he does running wide.
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5-0, improving every week, Michigan is right where it should be.
1. Solve QB Battle. ✔️
2. Win first road test versus a legit defense. ✔️
3. Start to build on the passing game (+300 yard game, more than 30 passes) since you could not do that against the cupcakes due to #1. ✔️
4. Beat PSU (doesn't matter how, and if you complain about it...you should be banned).
5. Beat MSU (should be convincingly - or complaining is justified, but due to recent history...unfortunately, this one is a little more "it doesn't matter how" as well).
6. Take the next 3 games to build as a team and elevate each week until you're at the point where you're ready to beat OSU. This is where it DOES matter how we look, this is where you want to see Michigan to build towards the level OSU is operating right now.
7. Beat OSU (doesn't matter how, 2-0 is fine). We don't need to look like them today, it's November 26 that matters, we just have to keep growing. They return everyone, we have to build. It was ALWAYS going to be this way.
8. Win B1G Championship Game.
9. Win CFP Semifinal (doesn't matter how, 2-0 is fine).
10. Play our best game of the season, in all 3 phases (which would win a national championship, but anything less ain't getting it done).
...Keep building, so far Michigan is right on track and right on schedule. Take your whining bullshit elsewhere. Especially this week, because the goal is just win and get to the Bye Week. That's it. Just like @Nebraska last year. If Brad Hawkins has to come out of the stands and rip the ball from Clifford for a late FG win, so be it. So you're going to be MISERABLE because Saturday is not about stats or looking good. It's not even about showing improvement.
Improvement will be shown via the final score. @Rutgers will be the next game where it matters how we look.
October 10th, 2022 at 8:27 AM ^
Every Michigan outlet has talked about how the offense isn't as explosive as everyone was expecting. This very blog said they went lloydball last week. People were expecting JJ throw 4tds a game and that's not happening yet. So stop acting like you can't understand why people are talking about it.
October 10th, 2022 at 9:08 AM ^
Just because a bunch of people thought the same stupid thing doesn't make that stupid thing right.
Harbaugh ain't gonna be Air Raid.
Haskins was great.
2 first round picks on D line.
New QB to break in.
Honestly, we look like we did early last year. We just had no expectations then. We do now.
October 10th, 2022 at 11:02 AM ^
I think we look a lot better at this point this year than at the same time last year- which is very encouraging
October 10th, 2022 at 9:20 AM ^
JJ literally just threw 28/36 for 3 TDs and 300 yards…yeah some of us are getting tired of the same old complaints about what it “should” be. They are improving every week, and that stat line is like one blip below your assumed expectations.
No playcalling hasn’t been perfect. Yes it was downright Lloydball at times. Yes I wish they had adjusted earlier to IU overloading to stop the run. But you also need to give them credit for what they actually did do too, and what they did was put up 469 yards of offense and 31 points (which should be 34 minus the chip shot FG weirdly getting blocked). Not the greatest outing ever, but overall a successful day.
October 10th, 2022 at 9:33 AM ^
Preseason predictions for the offense were wildly optimistic. Those who thought we’d become a firebreathing air raid based on the WR roster obviously haven’t been paying attention to Harbaugh teams since basically ever. He wants to reduce variance and has no problem sitting on a team that can only win if M turns the ball over a bunch and/or misses all their deep shots.
Also last year’s team, that pounded OSU in case everyone forgot, struggled mightily against 3-9 Nebraska, 7-5 PSU and lost to horseshoe Mel’s MSU- all road games. Winning is hard, winning on the road is harder. I thought the “this won’t work against OSU” crowd had leaned their lesson last year, but same old names with the same old comments.
October 10th, 2022 at 4:48 PM ^
Did you read this part?
"And before you respond...NO, I'M NOT DEFENDING MCIHIGAN'S OFFENSE. I'm simply calling you a herb for constantly crying about Michigan not throwing enough, or playing Andrel Anthony enough, or running up the middle."
October 10th, 2022 at 8:50 AM ^
SAY IT LOUDER FOR THE PEOPLE IN THE BACK
October 10th, 2022 at 9:06 AM ^
Look, I have my gripes about game plans and play calling from time to time, and have on occasion registered that the way Michigan builds its game plans isn’t my favorite. I want more passing, etc.
But some of these overstatements are just off the rails. “Ever?” Michigan threw 48 times for 400 yards against Michigan State last year with *Cade McNamara*. They threw as much as they ran this past week against Indiana. Even against Iowa last week Michigan’s brilliant opening drive featured four first-down passes.
Could they do it more? Sure. I hope they do.
Sometimes it’s like people don’t even watch the games.
October 10th, 2022 at 2:52 AM ^
42-27
October 10th, 2022 at 10:06 PM ^
To The Fuckening
October 10th, 2022 at 3:02 AM ^
I was one of those who suggested the possibility that Harbaugh was saving things, avoiding putting things on tape for the Thee to scout.
But mine was mostly musing for fun, not a careful analysis. Three thoughts on your question:
First, Harbaugh knows more about coaching football than any of us on this blog. (That's why Ryan Day sneaks on MGoBlog, to pick up tips. Hi, Ry!)
Part Deux, it's tough to generate much careful analysis, much less reach any helpful conclusion, when the premise is based on an analogy like Rock Paper Scissors.
C. Spock always beats Rock Paper and Scissors.
[EDIT: Indy Pete quoted my first point accurately, and his response made me realize I had expressed my thought wrong, so I just changed it.]
October 10th, 2022 at 3:09 AM ^
Harbaugh knows more about coaching football than any of us on this blog. Obviously except Ryan Day, who sneaks on our comments, to pick up tips. Hi, Ry
I think it’s far from obvious that Ryan has more football knowledge than Jim. He has a 1-1 record against Michigan with a far more highly rated roster. He also has exactly zero NFL playing or coaching experience, which puts him 20 years behind Harbaugh in experience at the game’s highest level. Harbaugh’s football knowledge is >>>>> Ryan’s, in my opinion.
October 10th, 2022 at 3:25 AM ^
Thanks, Mr. Pete. You're right, and that's not what I meant, so I edited what I wrote to make my meaning clear. I appreciate your response, so I could see I wrote it wrong.
I too believe that Harbaugh knows more than Day. It's like Knight and Day.
Also, what are you doing up so late? Or so early? Go back to bed.
October 10th, 2022 at 3:42 AM ^
Blue Vet, I got a middle of the night phone call from the ER and now am trying to heed your advice to go back to bed (after this post 😆)
Also, Haskins = Spock, and hopefully Corum does, too
October 10th, 2022 at 9:53 AM ^
I hope everything's okay.
October 10th, 2022 at 10:19 AM ^
Ryan Day is like that pinch runner in the 10th inning of MLB regular season games except he doesn't start at 2nd base he starts at 3rd base.
October 10th, 2022 at 6:52 AM ^
Ryan Day was a QB coach for Philly and Frisco in the NFL
October 10th, 2022 at 7:42 AM ^
So his NFL coaching experience compared to Harbaugh's?
October 10th, 2022 at 11:07 AM ^
Ryan was born on 3rd base and thinks he hit a triple! I would argue the OSU has underperformed versus their talent since 2014. Top 4 in talent every year, didn't make playoff last year, no championships. It seems to me that Day's teams are good at beating inferior teams but less likely to beat teams who are close to even in talent.
October 10th, 2022 at 5:37 AM ^
This is the first year where our schedule and offensive talent level align to the possibility that we could feasibly go into the OSU having not shown our hand. I think it is possible.
October 10th, 2022 at 8:01 AM ^
First I've heard of this, and I really like the Thee.
Simple. sharply focused. unique. Highlighting their own forced in-state superiority. 1st class mockery without being sophomoric. Much better and shorter than "the school down south".
So, thanks - this goes directly into use!
October 10th, 2022 at 8:46 AM ^
If I'm not mistaken, Paper defeats (disproves) Spock.
October 10th, 2022 at 9:55 AM ^
Oops.
Still, it'd have to be a helluva paper that Spock couldn't refute.