Feldman Picks UM to Win National Championship, Athletic $

Submitted by smotheringD on August 25th, 2023 at 3:55 PM

Bruce Feldman's top 5:

  1. Michigan
  2. LSU
  3. USC
  4. Georgia
  5. Ohio State

His reasons:

  • He predicts JJ to have another leap year in terms of development
  • Corum, Edwards, and Loveland will provide huge mismatches on offense
  • OL's going to be great again
  • GA, 'Bama and OSU all breaking in new QB's

Here's a link for those with or interested in trying a subscription:

https://theathletic.com/4800352/2023/08/24/college-football-rankings-top-25-feldman/?source=pulsenewsletter&campaign=7526938

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TeslaRedVictorBlue

August 25th, 2023 at 4:34 PM ^

So you say, but USC and their speed and offense whoops on Michigan every chance they get. And we're more Michigan than ever and they are more USC than ever. 

Looks like Caleb Williams COULD be to USC was Vince Young was to Texas. 

Dismissing them entirely is ridiculous. If williams didnt get hurt last year I think they make the playoff and if healthy in the playoff, possibly beat us as a more TCU version of TCU.. than TCU.

Joined: 09/02/2021

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TeslaRedVictorBlue

August 25th, 2023 at 4:44 PM ^

its a long history of it. and we play the same brand of football that carr inherited, though let flitter away. our control of osu for 2 years (to some extent) offensively makes me hopeful against these explosive offenses, but i dont think its any type of lock that we beat them down or that they arent worthy of the playoff. TCU demonstrated that, like it or not. 

Joined: 09/02/2021

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rice4114

August 25th, 2023 at 5:21 PM ^

Right now through coaching and development (and I am saying only right now is for sure) I think we are comparable. When we see next years draft I think we will be in the ball park of an old school Bama year as they were just getting it rolling with Saban. With these less than stellar recruiting classes its going to be difficult to sustain to say the least. 

Joined: 08/26/2010

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Brhino

August 25th, 2023 at 4:50 PM ^

"A long history of it"... USC has scored three touchdowns or more against Michigan exactly twice, ever, both the two most recent matchups, under Lloyd.  In the other 8 meetings (4 wins per team), USC has scored an average of 12.1 points to Michigan's 18.8 (12.4 if you exclude the 1949 Rose Bowl).

I've got as much football trauma from watching Lloyd Carr frittering away 4th quarter leads and being utterly hopeless against any kind of spread or mobile quarterback as anyone else, but characterising the entire UM vs. USC history based on two data points from the aughts is a bit suspect.

Joined: 09/08/2009

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KBLOW

August 25th, 2023 at 5:11 PM ^

Don't play the "if" game. It proves nothing and means nothing. But I'll give it a shot. IF USC wasn't so soft on defense and finesse on offense they wouldn't have had to expose Williams to so many hits and get him injured. But they were that soft and their defense was that bad, so their only hope was to rely too much on Williams.  

Anyway, TCU's defense was a lot better than USC's across the board. 

Joined: 06/30/2008

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Perkis-Size Me

August 25th, 2023 at 9:51 PM ^

And what do you think happens when Michigan wants to line it up and pound the ball down USC’s throat?

The game of football is played on two sides. This is not just Caleb Williams getting to tee off. USC has to play defense too, and for all of Lincoln Riley’s expertise on offense, he is yet to EVER prove he can play defense that is even close enough to winning a title. At Oklahoma or USC. Pete Carroll and his dynasty are NOT walking through that door.

USC’s defense last year was worse than OSU’s. Allergic to tackling. Caleb Williams would’ve absolutely made some plays on Michigan because he’s that good, but USC’s defense would’ve had absolutely no answer for Corum or Edwards. If their two games against Utah are any indication, when confronted with a team with a high level of physicality, they fold like a cheap tent.

I refuse to be scared of a team that got beat by Tulane. I don’t care how many players USC had sitting out. They had the Heisman trophy winner playing that day and should’ve been able to win that game by 4 TDs based on talent alone. But they lost. Until proven otherwise, they are soft as Charmin and should be treated as such.

Joined: 11/30/2011

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tragictones

August 26th, 2023 at 7:51 AM ^

Utah gets a lot of respect and Whittingham is highly regarded.  But, I'd like to argue that this respect is undeserved.  But, please note, that this is definitely more of a critique against the PAC 12 than Utah.  It's not Utah/Whittingham's fault that they are overrated.  It's the pollsters/analysts who overvalue their PAC 12 competition.

Utah just looks good since they play in the PAC 12 and the PAC 12 is quite bad.  When going up against non-PAC teams, they get exposed.  Utah hasn't won a game against a non-PAC power 5 team since 2017.  In 2017, they beat WVU in a bowl game.  Since then, they lost to Northwestern (2018), Texas (2019), Ohio State (2021), Florida (2022), and Penn State (2022).   They were ranked higher than Northwestern, Texas, Florida, and Penn State, yet lost against all of them.  They were ranked 11th when they lost by 4 touchdowns to unranked Texas.  They were ranked in the top 10 (#7) when they lost to unranked Florida.

My point is Utah gets these oddly high rankings by winning games in the PAC, but the PAC is not good. 

Since joining the PAC 12 in 2011, Utah has never beaten a ranked team from the Big 12, SEC, Big 10, or ACC.  

Joined: 07/23/2010

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bronxblue

August 25th, 2023 at 4:36 PM ^

That's a weird top 5. 

Georgia will take a step back because they lost some key defensive pieces and Bennett being basically the same age as Lamar Jackson likely helped with jitters at QB (JT Daniels was absolutely going to be their starter and looked pretty mortal when out there).  Still immensely talented but have questions.

USC is all gas, no brakes and that has tripped them up against teams that can slow them down a bit and get to Williams.  We saw that against ND and Utah; those teams could make them work on offense more than they wanted and ND probably pulls that game out with a competent offensive plan.  The next good defense a Lincoln Riley-led team runs out there will be his first and they're clearly been trying to portal their way to competency this offseason and I doubt that'll all stick.  Plus last year they were something like +19 in TO margin and STILL weren't good on defense, which is likely to regress somewhat. 

LSU has talent but Daniels has a ceiling as a QB and they've still gotta play FSU and @Alabama toward the end of the year, plus they'll inevitably trip up somewhere because the SEC is a tough conference.  I think people are burying Alabama a bit too early; Young covered up for some sins on offense and they still don't seem to have a top-tier WR but it's still a loaded roster.  They don't seem to have a QB and they welcome Texas in week 2 so good lord are we going to hear a lot about Texas being "back" if the Tide struggle in that game.  But Saban their 2 losses last year were by something like 6 points; they've got some fight in them and getting LSU and Texas at home will help.

OSU is what they are - a really talented team offensively and a pretty good defense that relies heavily on the QB playing well within Day's offense.  They aren't built to really grind teams down and so if they run into a team/game where the passing game isn't viable they're in trouble.  That game against ND will be interesting; they're better than the Irish but going to ND at night can mess with even seasoned QBs.  

Michigan at #1 feels a bit default-ish.  The passing offense has a ceiling until further notice and while you can win with a B+ WR room (look at Georgia the past couple of years) it does limit you in a shootout.  McCarthy should be better and I think the long-ball issues aren't a long-term issue but he's still gonna have to improve as a passer against more aggressive teams.  He struggled mightily against Illinois, PSU gave him some fits, and while he had some nice throws against OSU his TDs to Johnson were either because of broken tackles or missed assignments.  TCU, in hindsight, wasn't as bad as it looked outside of those two pick-sixes, but gotta built on the dual threat ability he showed there.  And defensively they need some consistency at edge; Morris was solid and nobody currently at the ends even has his level of past performance coming into the year.  I think they'll find it but we'll see.

Watch out for Washington down at #9.  That's a tough early schedule against Boise and MSU but they also get Utah and Oregon at home and go to USC and Oregon St.  They might sneak into the playoffs with 1-2 losses if they're reasonable and then that's an offense that can wreck anyone along with a competent defense.  

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Perkis-Size Me

August 26th, 2023 at 7:15 AM ^

We had two against Georgia and it didn’t seem to make a damn bit of difference. 

I know what you’re trying to say, and you’re not wrong, but there are so many components that go into winning the title. If all LSU has is elite pass rush, their opponent can game plan around that as Georgia clearly did against Michigan.

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Bo Harbaugh

August 25th, 2023 at 5:38 PM ^

UM at #1 is because they have the least amount of unknowns.  I think a team like UGA or Bama has a potentially higher ceiling if the young players and specifically QB's click, but that's a big if.

OSU is a known entity, with a new and most likely lesser QB (For all the hate, Stroud was a phenomenal passer).  Can OSU toughen up in the trenches AND fix a confused secondary?...Big unknown. USC's defense was so terrible last year...would really need to make a leap to be a threat to win it all.

UGA, BAMA, LSU hitting their ceiling could be a problem for UM, but hopefully we only have to play one in the playoff this year.

 

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willirwin1778

August 25th, 2023 at 4:37 PM ^

Watched an interview this week with OSU D Coordinator Jim Knowles and he mentioned that his D this year in practice was "getting their hands on a lot of balls" (as opposed to previous years) and he repeated it a few times in the interview.  He also said Harrison Jr. is the best receiver in all of college football.

So I am reading the Tea leaves here and I am looking at their receivers and concluding that the only reason his D is getting their hands on a lot of balls in camp is because their QB's have accuracy and timing issues.  Throwing interceptions.  And maybe they need Devin Brown to run more as a result of the situation, hence the QB battle? 

    

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smotheringD

August 25th, 2023 at 5:35 PM ^

Agreed.  The team would be wise to bring in a sports psychologist, although I'm sure Coach Harbaugh could articulate it just as well.  The whole dynamics of being ranked #1, the tendency to believe that you are better, and the subconscious tendency to be satisfied, overconfident, to back off a bit in your effort, preparations, etc.  Combined with the teams ranked below you and their hunger and drive to replace you.

We need to find that chip.  2021 GA, 2022 TCU, Harbaugh suspension.  The chip can do a lot to overcome the #1 ranking.

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