Early College Football Game Odds - Full Michigan Schedule
Just went up, early college football game lines:
Michigan (-20.5) vs Western Michigan
Michigan (-1.5) vs Washington
Michigan (-27.5) vs Northern Illinois
Michigan (-16.5) vs Rutgers
Michigan (+9.5) @ Wisconsin
Michigan (-2.5) @ Nebraska
Michigan (-9.5) vs Northwestern
Michigan (-6.5) @ Michigan State
Michigan (-3.5) vs Indiana
Michigan (+7.5) @ Penn State
Michigan (-6.5) @ Maryland
Michigan (+10.5) vs Ohio State
Some other notable games:
Sept 4
Clemson (-4) vs Georgia
Wisconsin (-3.5) vs Penn State
Alabama (-17.5) @ Miami, FL
Iowa (-5.5) vs Indiana
Northwestern (-6.5) vs Michigan State
Sept 11
Iowa State (-4.5) vs Iowa
Ohio State (-9.5) vs Oregon
Sept 18
Penn State (-7.5) vs Auburn
Miami, Fl (-17.5) vs Michigan State
Sept 25
Nebraska (-5.5) @ Michigan State
Wisconsin (-1.5) @ Notre Dame
Oct 2
Penn State (-6.5) vs Indiana
Nebraska (-6.5) vs Northwestern
Oct 9
Iowa (-3.5) vs Penn State
Michigan State (-3.5) @ Rutgers
Alabama (-11.5) @ Texas A&M
Oct 16
Indiana (-16.5) vs Michigan State
Oct 23
Ohio State (-9.5) @ Indiana
Notre Dame (-3.5) vs USC
Oct 30
Ohio State (-10.5) vs Penn State
Notre Dame (-2.5) vs North Carolina
Nov 6
Penn State (-9.5) @ Maryland
Purdue (-7.5) vs Michigan State
Nov 20
Ohio State (-27) vs Michigan State
I forgot to include that these lines are from DraftKings.
As pessimistic as I am about this year, if I had a large amount of disposable income, I would jump all over our -2.5 @ Nebraska. Sure it's at Nebraska, but beat them by 3 points? Yeah I think so.
From the offensive minds that brought you MSU last year? On the road? Bold move cotton.
I don't think the QB who lost to Sparty last year will be starting again this year
How about the corners?
Yeah but are the CBs who started that game starting next year, too?
If so, then Nebraska's gameplan has already been written out for them.
Great post! Thanks!
Can't wait for the commenters who will say "There's no way we lose only 3 games!" And talk about how Harbaugh is going to go winless and lose by 100 to OSU but keep his job because he has a new DC.
I would have been fine with firing Harbaugh last year, but I'd bet money they'll be closer to what he's usually done here than what he did last year. This offense better finally click. I guess I'm encouraged by Gattis still being here even though it hasn't worked out yet. You'd think by now if the fit just wasn't right that they would have parted ways.
And that would portend good things about the future. Because I like the plan for the defense (and recruiting), but it could be anything from Rich Rod to fine this year. It seems like a defense that is better for handling the passing attacks which are the real danger in today's game. Get some beef up front to handle the run game so OLBs and the secondary can go to work getting after the QB and blanketing receivers.
Unfortunately, the above lines predict 7.3 wins, not 9. Based on historical data of college football lines, you get the following probabilities for each opponent:
WMU: .93
UW: .52
N-Ill: .96
Rut: .88
Wisc: .25
Neb: .54
NU: .75
MSU: .69
IU: .59
PSU: .29
Ma: .69
OSU: .23
Total: 7.3
Good info. That's about .229999999 more than I expected the win probability to be for the OSU game.
This is a good way to look at it. I had a stats professor that used to say even if you have a 99% chance of an event happening the 1% can still happen.
I was going to say that with these lines a 9-3 season is meh. It is the expectation. But 7.3 and 6.7 is the floor record expectation based on the probability. We probably had a .99 chance of beating Appalachian State and the Horror happened. We've played 100+ of those games so it makes sense.
That said,
10-2 or better is a good to fantastic year.
9-3 is what it should be
8-4 is Dissatisfying Moeller-esque drive you to drink
7-5 Not good
6-6 Matt Campbell crowd goes nuts.
Excellent. So there is a chance we beat OSU this year.
You need to go back to your stat class notes. Based on the odds, 7 win season is most likely with 8 wins being the next likely scenario. Based on the odds, this is more accurate:
10-2 or better is not likely and would be fantastic
9-3 if we are lucky and everything plays out as odds predict, even close ones
8-4 likely if we are slightly lucky
7-5 most likely
6-6 we are not quite lucky this year
5-7 or worse we perform poorly and unlucky to boot
7 wins is what I expect this year. Anything more is gravy at that point.
I also expect 7 wins - by the 8th game of the season. 7 if we're lucky and good(er than I think we will be)
Agree with you on this as well. I think the schedule sets up pretty well for a defense that is going to have to develop over the course of the season. @Wisc in October seems pretty hard to imagine as anything other than a loss at this point.
The final record will hinge a lot on how the defense has progressed over the course of the season heading into November. If the defense still looks pretty wobbly heading into the first weekend in Nov. 1-3 for the month is entirely possible which would probably lead to a 7-5 season.
If the defense has progressed from not-very-good to above average or solid, I would expect they could pick up a win against IU and play a toss-up game against PSU. It's still going to take a perfectly executed game plan and some good luck to beat OSU. This team simply doesn't have the horses to beat OSU without a lot of breaks going their way. The only thing keeping me from calling an OSU win an act of God is we haven't seen how severely their offense is going to miss Justin Fields. If Stroud comes in and picks up right where Fields and Haskins left off - performing at the level of a first round draft pick.. forget about it. If there is a drop off with Stroud (he's obviously pretty good, will he perform at the level of a first round draft grade next year is the question), then I think Michigan might have a plausible punchers chance if they have their house in order as well.
8-4 seems most likely to me with a win over IU in November (losses against PSU and OSU), 9-3 if the defense improves enough to turn the PSU game into a coin flip and they pull out a close one. 10-2 would a "Brady Hoke poops gold" kind of season.
Good info. I wasn't really basing my prediction on the lines though. I think it's crazy that Michigan is almost as big of an underdog at Wisconsin as vs OSU.
But you’ll have to wait. They’re not here yet.
Well, that's one of the nice things about being a sliding five-year plan, isn't it? Your projected ideal state can always be the same distance away and you are always able to discount the year which is about to fall off the back end of the "plan".
I think it's extremely likely we go 9-3 but don't look particularly competitive vs Wisconsin, PSU, and OSU.
Second verse, same as the first.
Give me 9-3 all day erry day! How do we fair as underdogs recently? -ducks
Knowing we dont win as dogs really puts the pressure on winning every single time you are favored.
Time for the yearly emotional hedge of betting on OSU to win
Michigan's opponents + points was money last year after the Minnesota game. I'll tell you what else was money: In-game betting! I can't remember winning so much money on college football in my life. Especially on high scoring games - I just hammered away on the over (quarterly) as soon as it looked like an offense was on fire and there was very little defense. Last year was so crazy with teams missing many players due to COVID though. This year may be back to normal in some regards.
As I really haven't read much about next season other than this blog, I assumed a disastrous fall. Of course that may still happen but this posting suggests the season might be better than I've been anticipating.
Thanks for the post, UES.
It's Friday.
We have a dozen chickens to butcher as soon as it is light enough outside.
We will walk 18 holes this afternoon.
Our two grandsons will be here for overnight-they will mow our yard...they love that riding mower :)
I predict that our beloved Wolverines will win between 2 and 12 games this year.
Don't worry...be happy.
That's five games with less than a TD spread and one more at 7.5 (PSU). That sounds like a dog fight of a season. And, OSU at 10.5? LOL I'd take that over. It would be a miracle to lose to OSU by two TDs or less. I wonder what JH's record is in games with a close spread...I'd guess not great.
Agreed, considering the fact that we've only kept The Game within 10 points once under Harbaugh and OSU is in full death star mode while we are mediocre at best 10.5 points seems pretty generous in our favor.
I would take Rutgers and OSU bets for sure.
I'd take that MSU vs Miami line...Miami opens at Bama, then have a tough game vs App St. Their season could easily be derailed and I could see them struggling to eek out a win vs MSU.
So OSU is 10.5 points better than both Michigan and Penn State; yet Penn State is 7.5 favored over Michigan? Quite a lot of points for being at home.
White-out is worth an extra 4.5.
This feels nobody is buying Indiana at all this season. Like, I think Iowa St. will be fine this year but according to these numbers they think they're 10 pts better than Indiana, which seems strange to me.
This feels like an 8-4 team. Maybe they crater and go 3-9 or something or they surprise a team or two and go 9-3/10-2. But with the uncertainty at some spots and the general blah of last season, this feels like one of those years where the team is markedly better and nobody really cares because it's still a step or two behind the top teams.
giving up 9.5 @ Wisconsin seems extreme. If we show up with a healthy QB that doesn't have a broken hand or clavicle injury & we get our NT today, should at worst be a very even game.
I am getting really tired of playing at Wisconsin every other year. Watching games on TV in that stadium is brutal with that camera angle.
I think this is the conference making up for them not seeing each other at all from 2011-2015, but yeah, I'm ready to play someone else in the West. But I believe after this season, they are off the schedule for at least two years.
I think Iowa could be good and OSU doesn't play either Wisconsin or Iowa. PSU plays both though.
As someone who went to the last one... trust me, it was worse in person.
I am going to say 6-6, but will gladly offer a mea culpa if they outperform that.
OSU at 10.5? I'm not normally a betting man but if I were I'd take that action all day.
Harbaugh has been able to keep it within double digits against OSU just one time in his entire coaching tenure here. And now we're going into next season with question marks at almost every position group on the team, while OSU is just going to reload like they always do. If Michigan keeps that game within two touchdowns, much less keeps it within 10.5, that would be a friggin' miracle.
And as for the MSU game, at this point I'd take them to win outright in an ugly slopfest where Michigan should win, and has every opportunity to do so, but they can't capitalize and make enough plays. Yeah, MSU is probably not going to be much better this season than they were last season, and I'm sure I'll get negged for my outlook on this. Fine. I accept that.
But the game is in EL, I don't have much faith that Michigan will be much better than they were last year either, and I don't think it can be understated just how important that win was for Mel Tucker's program. It gave them the confidence that they don't need Mark Dantonio around to be able to beat and embarrass Michigan. That game was the biggest possible building block Mel Tucker could've asked for to get his program off the ground. That completely swung the momentum in the rivalry back into their favor, and they're not going to be even remotely intimidated by playing Michigan. Do I think it'll be an MSU blowout? No, they're still a bad to meh team. But it'll be one of those games where Michigan will have countless opportunities to go ahead or tie it up, get the momentum back, and they just won't be able to do it. MSU will make one more play than them, or make one less mistake when it counts, and will win something like an ugly, ugly 21-17 kind of game.
I hate up-voting this, but it's just a good take, unfortunately...
I would count the games where Michigan is an underdog as losses. Jim has been horrible as an underdog, in fact I recall last year at one point Jim had lost 18 consecutive games as the underdog. Until they prove me wrong I have no faith in this team winning games they shouldn't under Jim. Looking at these odds we will likely win 6 or 7 games, but we tend to lose a game or two every year that we shouldn't either so I'm going to go with 6 wins next year.
That can't be right -- maybe you're thinking of Harbaugh's record on the road vs ranked opponents?
I had read a tweet last fall where someone proclaimed that, to my detriment I did not do my due diligence and verify that and now I can't find it.
That said here is a link to a MGOBlog post about Harbaugh being only FBS team not to have an upset victory since 2015. Even Alabama, who has only been an underdog once in that time, has an underdog victory.
https://mgoblog.com/mgoboard/michigan-only-fbs-program-without-upset-victory-2015
This was posted just before the IU game and as we all are aware of, Harbaugh did not have an upset win last season either. One can explain away the OSU losses as being against a historically great program, but one cannot explain the underdog losses, record against MSU/PSU, the inability to find an identity as a team, the high transfer and staff turnover and so many other things.
I predict come December that Harbaugh will be at 6 wins or so with no underdog wins and blowout losses to OSU and Wisconsin at the least and we will still be rehashing the same argument of how long should he be given. Fact is none of us have a say in the matter and all we have are opinions, and my opinion is that we are in the twilight of Jim's days as head coach at UM. Whether that end comes in 2021, 2022 or even 2023 is yet to be seen but after this much time I just don't see him suddenly righting the ship ad figuring out what exactly is wrong with his program and team.
this tweet? https://twitter.com/KyleRowland/status/1327830275154391042?s=20
the 11 was referring to Harbaugh; the 18 was Michigan as a program
Who is ohio state's qb going to be this year? Do they finally take a step back at that position? Maybe the football gods can be on Michigan's side
its gonna be a redshirt freshman who was a 5 star and with their luck he will be a stud and look nothing like a freshman
Is anyone confused about Nebraska -2.5. Feel like Michigan should be more then that especially when they are -6.5 against sharty and -9.5 against Northwestern
Home vs. away makes a big difference -- I think it adds up to a 6-point swing overall. Agree, though, that it's weird that they have Nebraska that much less of an underdog than Sparty.
They basically have us going 9-3. I’ll take it and hopefully a nice bowl victory to finish 10-3