Early 2020 Schedule Strength Projection
Michigan is 11th. Ohio State (which visits Oregon) is 19th.
Sparty is No. 1. May be a very, very, rough time.
https://twitter.com/mattsmithcfb/status/1219296961351897088?s=21
January 20th, 2020 at 6:40 PM ^
Quick peek at MSU schedule. Weird most difficult. Must expect leaps from Rutgers and Miami while Toledo actually being a P5 quality school. Have Michigan, OSU and Minny at home.
January 20th, 2020 at 6:53 PM ^
Miami just got a new QB and the AAC DPOY as grad transfers. They might get a lot better quickly.
January 21st, 2020 at 12:04 PM ^
Miami was already not terrible and MSU might be actually terrible
January 20th, 2020 at 7:05 PM ^
MSU’s schedule for October might be the toughest month in the country for sure. I don’t really feel bad for them
@ Iowa
Michigan
OSU
@ Indiana
Minnesota
January 20th, 2020 at 10:34 PM ^
Looks like an 0 for October. Maybe that will evoke some coaching changes, but I hope not.
January 20th, 2020 at 10:47 PM ^
Not as bad as their 5 game stretch this year (with a bye in the middle, but still)
@OSU
@Wisco
PSU
ILLINOIS
@UM
January 20th, 2020 at 6:47 PM ^
I bet Clemson has the easiest path to the National championship game
January 20th, 2020 at 7:04 PM ^
They play Akron, @ Notre Dame, Citadel and South Carolina OOC.
BC, Wake Forest, FSU, Louisville, NC State, Syracuse, Virginia and Georgia Tech.
January 20th, 2020 at 7:26 PM ^
Jfc. How many times would we have made the playoffs with that schedule?
January 20th, 2020 at 7:31 PM ^
You can only do so much about your own conference being a tire fire
January 21st, 2020 at 12:07 PM ^
Very true. I think we're just jealous. You swap Clemson and Michigan's spots over the last 5 years and we've probably made the playoffs at least twice.
January 20th, 2020 at 8:21 PM ^
How many times would we have made the playoff with OSU's schedule (ie. Not having to play OSU)?
January 20th, 2020 at 9:19 PM ^
Depends on how the committee would view a loss at Notre Dame (I kid, I kid)
January 21st, 2020 at 5:19 AM ^
Yup. Figure you go ~.500 with Notre Dame. FSU has been down a couple years, not much better than UM even on good years outside of their title. SCar is a 8 win team on average.
For comparison, Michigan played what, 6 teams that finished ranked in the top 15?
January 20th, 2020 at 7:06 PM ^
They’re at ND on Nov. 7, which may have 05 USC potential (I’m sure NBC will want that), otherwise, it would take a massive jump from someone else, or a championship game upset, to derail them, especially with Lawrence and Ettienne back.
January 20th, 2020 at 6:58 PM ^
MSU will struggle to win 5 games. Probably 4-8, 2-10 is possible if the wheels really come off. They’re going to be garbage.
As for our win percentages I’d say:
- Ball State - 99%
- Rutgers - 99%
Arkansas State - 95%
Maryland - 90%
MSU - 85%
Indiana - 80%
Purdue - 75%
Wisconsin - 65%
Penn State - 60% - Minnesota - 55%
Washington - 50%
OSU - 20%
It’s not the toughest schedule of the Harbaugh tenure. Play a perfect game against Washington and the path to 11-1 is pretty clear. Lose in week 1 and this will probably fee exactly like 2018.
January 20th, 2020 at 7:01 PM ^
20% at Columbus? Feels optimistic.
January 20th, 2020 at 7:23 PM ^
I think Minnesota takes a bit of a step back this year and Indiana might be a bit more dangerous, but largely agree. Washington should be...fine, but they haven't been all that scary since they went to the playoffs and have benefitted from a down Pac-12.
January 20th, 2020 at 7:33 PM ^
I don't follow Minnesota. Do they lose a lot of players?
January 20th, 2020 at 10:08 PM ^
I think they get back a fair portion of their offense but they also went 6-1 in 1-score games and my personal pet theory is that teams like that tend to take a small step back the following year more times than not. That doesn't mean I think they'll go 3-9, but they played 5 teams that finished above .500 and went 3-2 against them. I'm fine being wrong, but that's my general prior pending more information.
January 20th, 2020 at 7:41 PM ^
Keep in mind that Indiana hasn’t won in Ann Arbor since 1967 when John Isenbarger led the Hoosiers to their only Rose Bowl appearance.
January 20th, 2020 at 10:11 PM ^
Absolutely. But they have a couple of solid weapons offensively and Tom Allen should get their defense up a bit from the top-50 unit they had last year. And at some point IU has to win one of these games.
January 20th, 2020 at 8:49 PM ^
I think Minnesota takes a step back too. Could still be a ranked road team however. I think we win, but it won’t be a cakewalk.
January 20th, 2020 at 10:11 PM ^
Absolutely. They'll be good, but I feel like they'll get a bunch of top-10 love to start the year and that might be a bit generous.
January 20th, 2020 at 7:41 PM ^
My Take
@Washington -50%
Ball State - 100%
Arkansas State - 100%
Wisconsin - 75%
Penn State - 75%
@MSU - 85%
@Minnesota - 50%
Purdue - 90%
Break
Maryland - 90%
@Rutgers - 95%
Indiana - 90%
@OSU - 10%
January 20th, 2020 at 8:46 PM ^
You and Tobias have an expected win total of about nine wins. I don't see a way Maryland, Indiana, Purdue win in Ann Arbor or Rutgers beats Michigan combined with a > 0 percent chance Michigan wins in Columbus. I'm thinking Maryland, Rutgers, Indiana, Purdue are 100 percent and Washington and Minnesota are at 60 percent. The others are the same as yours but this would make my win total about 10.
January 20th, 2020 at 8:50 PM ^
I think we definitely get to 10 wins. Expected wins are a little funny, since any game I have us at >50% win probability I am projecting us to win.
January 20th, 2020 at 9:31 PM ^
The probabilities have to make sense throughout though which was my bigger point. As a side note, I think subjective expected win totals should match how many wins you expect from the team.
January 20th, 2020 at 10:59 PM ^
Late in the season, we can have injuries and unusual weather. Would an average team beat us in AA once every 20 years? I say yes.
January 20th, 2020 at 8:01 PM ^
Is the 50% vs. Washington based on the fact that it's a road game vs. a PAC 12 school?
January 20th, 2020 at 8:47 PM ^
Yes. Neutral site would say maybe 65 or 70% Michigan win.
January 20th, 2020 at 9:28 PM ^
Isn’t 89 the last road win against a pac team? I guess you could count a “neutral site” Rose Bowl. Regardless, too many west coast horror stories for me to be at 50%.
January 20th, 2020 at 8:35 PM ^
Can we all agree to throat punch any cucks who bring up changing divisions or conferences? Never heard LSU saying they need to transfer and Bama is in their division.
January 20th, 2020 at 7:43 PM ^
January 20th, 2020 at 9:00 PM ^
I see 9-3 or 10-2. Michigan under Harbaugh has lost specific types of games.
- Openers against good teams on the road
- Bowl games
- OSU
- MSU where something dumb happens
- Road games against ranked B1G teams
10-2 if Minnesota takes a step back and 9-3 if they don’t. Hard to see PSU or Wisconsin winning at Michigan.
January 20th, 2020 at 10:28 PM ^
It's almost as though playing against good and/or motivated teams comes with a risk of losing. Very curious.
January 20th, 2020 at 9:07 PM ^
Looking forward to another 3-9 shit show from Sparty!
January 21st, 2020 at 10:31 AM ^
Michigan shits the bed in spectacular fashion on the west coast. I’m thinking of the games at Oregon and Washington where it’s almost like we invented ways to lose, though I admit details are hazy. Special teams meltdowns? This opener is not great. Wish it was the third game of the season instead.
January 21st, 2020 at 11:49 AM ^
Sparty will probably grind their way to a bowl game. "Program Wins" and all.
Michigan is probably looking at 9-3
We have 6 nearly certain wins on the schedule: Ball St, Ark St, Purdue, Maryland, @Rutgers, Indiana
Then of the remaining games we will probably go 3-3
Lean Wins: Wisconsin, PSU, @MSU
Lean Losses: @Washington, @Minnesota, @OSU
Nothing Harbaugh has done to date has me convinced we will be Washington. I think we lose a close game. Wisconsin and PSU at home are probably wins because Harbaugh beats those teams in Ann Arbor. @MSU is also probably a win but given that its their Super Bowl it will probably be too close for comfort. @Minny scares me given how close they played us in 2015 and PJ Fleck factor. I expect them to beat us in close game. And @OSU...…..
January 21st, 2020 at 12:19 PM ^
I think everything leans to W for Michigan other than @Washington (new QB in a true road game) and @OSU (for obvious reasons). @Minnesota is too hard to tell. Was this a flash in the pan for them or can Fleck keep them at a top 20ish level?
Harbaugh has generally beaten up Wisconsin and PSU in Ann Arbor and I expect MSU to be a lifeless corpse.
January 21st, 2020 at 1:41 PM ^
So we just disagree about @Minny.
I think that is a lean loss because we are lethargic in road games and we will be coming off of a murderer's row of Wisconsin, PSU, and then @MSU (Sparty's Super Bowl).
But we will find out just how good Minnesota is much earlier next season. They host Iowa in Sept, and BYU and a road trip to Madison the week before they host us.
January 21st, 2020 at 12:15 PM ^
Assuming the Mork magic has worn off and this dumpster looking roster doesn't magically go 10-3, it's plausible you could see MSU win 2-3 games if you look at this year and consider the fact that they lost a ton on top of that
Northwestern - W?
@BYU - toss up?
Toledo - lean W
Miami - L
@Iowa - L
Michigan - L
OSU - L
@IU - lean L
Minnesota - lean L
@PSU - L
Rutgers - W?
@Maryland - toss up
Too hard to tell this early, but a crappy 7-6 team that loses a lot doesn't have many clear wins on that schedule. Even Toledo is a good MAC team usually
January 21st, 2020 at 1:42 PM ^
One thing I've noticed about MSU is that they tend to improve when they lose a lot from crappy teams.
But things may have changed now that we are in the end time of the Dantonio tenure.
January 22nd, 2020 at 2:09 AM ^
The 3-9 season was a perfect storm of things that went wrong for Staee. They were obviously over confident after the previous season. Dantini lost the locker room and there was also rumors of some players who were outspoken in their support of Trump that fractured the locker room even further. Staee’s luck in close games also ran out and every coin flip game went against them. Staee has had some bad luck with O-line injuries the last few seasons. If their O-line comes together and stays healthy they could surprise some people. However they lost a lot of starters on D and unless they get insanely lucky and land a transfer, their QB situation looks dicey. Would love to see them have a losing record but I think they end up with 7 wins again.