Does the Tucker situation help or hurt MSU?

Submitted by TK on September 12th, 2023 at 9:57 AM

I know there’s another Tucker thread but I’m curious to hear some opinions. I’ve seen several Spartan fans say this is a blessing because it gets them out of his ridiculous contract. While I can see that point, I’m not sure I agree. Is this setting up for a legal battle between Tucker and MSU? Or is he just looking to get some settlement cash. Either way, it seems like they are in limbo for a while since they can’t fire him yet but everyone knows he’s gone. I imagine that would make it difficult to put a plan in place for the next coach. Thoughts? 

Wolverine91

September 12th, 2023 at 10:03 AM ^

It helps for sure I think. They have money and they’ll get a good coach now. If they were willing to pay this clown 9.5 million a year, they can get whoever they want. Sucks tho bc I wanted him to stay 

TK

September 12th, 2023 at 10:06 AM ^

But the question is, are they sure to get a good coach? I imagine MSU is going to have to fight not to give him some sort of settlement and I’m not sure how attractive that job is right now. I feel like they are going to have to really overpay again like they did with Tucker.  And it doesn’t sound like he will go away quietly. It might get messy for them. 

BTB grad

September 12th, 2023 at 12:26 PM ^

They’ll pay $15-20M to get him to go away to avoid a lawsuit. Still saved themselves over $50M.

The big thing is there might not be any big time job openings for MSU to compete with this offseason. Unless A&M ponies up the cash to can Jimbo, Florida cuts Napier loose after only 2 years, or Saban decides to retire, MSU might be one of the best jobs open in the country. And with the money they can offer, don’t discount that they’ll reel in a solid coach.

1408

September 12th, 2023 at 1:28 PM ^

Definitely not straightforward.  Tucker is already positioning himself to dig in - he knows his job is gone.  Between the settlement, the lawyers, the economics of a lost season (and maybe more?), however much they are going to spend on this will be roughly equal to, or probably greater, than his total contract.

Take a look at Northwestern if you want a sneak preview.  Both schools are going to wind up shelling out a surprising figure to their ex coaches, count on it.

M Ascending

September 12th, 2023 at 2:16 PM ^

Tuck's first claim will be breach of contract; his second will be wrongful termination; and then he'll add some civil rights/discrimination claims. His statement foreshadows claims of discrimination based on his race and gender.  (Gender,  WTF? They're gonna hire a female head coach and discriminate against him because he's male?)

Hab

September 12th, 2023 at 3:15 PM ^

Assuming that there is a moral turpitude clause in his contract, which I haven't seen, he's toast.  Mel can dig in all he wants, but it is only going to get him to summary disposition.  If, by some miracle, he can get past that, then you'll see some of the contract being paid to get it to go away.  

There is no huge egg-on-face moment for the school.  The scandal here isn't systemic; it all falls squarely on Mel's head for his idiotic actions.  I suppose the only thing that could potentially drag this out would be if there are other skeletons and Mel knows where they are buried.  But has he been around long enough for it?  And at this point, does state care?  Maybe.  So far, the school appears to be ticking off the boxes, don't things the right way, and cleaning house.  They money is in escrow, so they don't have to claw it back.  MSU holds all the power here.

BTB grad

September 12th, 2023 at 4:12 PM ^

Sure, MSU could win in the lawsuit that Mel will surely lodge against them. But do you really want this thing to drag on and get nasty as they try to hire a new coach and let him start a new regime? They’ll think about the months it’ll take and the lawyers it’ll cost and just settle to get this to go away. It’d be the smart thing to do honestly

Benthom11

September 12th, 2023 at 4:09 PM ^

MSU might be one of the best jobs open in the country?  Seriously? Just cause they paid Tuck $95 mil doesn't mean they'll do it again. It makes it much less likely that they'll do it again IMO, since they've seen how bad that can turn out.  They have a dark history of abuse and cover ups. They've been 7-6 or worse 4 of the last 5 years, but for the fanbase, the best stretch in the last 60 years is fairly recent memories and the expectations are still there.  They can't recruit.  They're in a tough conference. It's an awful job.

BTB grad

September 12th, 2023 at 4:22 PM ^

Yes seriously. Aside from the 3 jobs I listed which likely won’t come open this offseason, the P5 jobs that might be open this offseason: Boston College, Cal, Syracuse, Indiana, Mizzou, West Virginia, Northwestern. They can match any of those jobs on money and it’s the only program out of those that’s shown they can win their conference multiple times and make it to a 4 team playoff, and it’ll get a lot easier in a 12 team playoff. Their only protected game going forward will be U-M so they’ll no longer play OSU or PSU every year which makes their path far easier.

Blinkin

September 12th, 2023 at 11:40 AM ^

I think that's debatable.  Donor fatigue is a real phenomenon in other areas that people donate money and time to, like charities or politics.  Yes there are potential "big donors" who want MSU to succeed, but they are a limited number of people with a limited (if very substantial) amount of money.  It's entirely possible that the school looks like enough of a shitshow (especially if there's a whole "what did they know and when did they know it" investigation) that people will keep their distance for awhile.

King Tot

September 12th, 2023 at 10:04 AM ^

This hurts short term. It is yet another blow to the institutions reputation and you could see considerable exits via the portal.

Long term it helps, they get out of that terrible contract and get rid of Tucker.

UgLi Eric

September 12th, 2023 at 11:20 AM ^

I would imagine any school with poor talent compared to their brand/expectations/resources without academic complications will all go full Deion and encourage mass player exodus with a coaching change. I also think a school will hire a lower level coach who brings in their young talent with them. 

This will likely lead to a lot of 2 to 3 year expectations and repeat turnover in coaching staffs until they get it right. 

ESNY

September 12th, 2023 at 2:30 PM ^

They get out from an onerous contract with a meh at best coach that they likely would've been locked into for at least 7 or so more years before they could reasonably eat the buyout, so in that way it helps.

But their reputation just took another beating, they'll likely crater again this year and will lose any halfway decent players they have (if any) and likely wont have much of a recruiting class next year. Is there any chance they convince a halfway decent coach to take this job?

This is not a step up for a lower level P5 HC and likely isn't an ideal place for a G5 HC looking to make the leap. And if you are a top tier OC/DC ready to make the leap would you jump ship for a bottom third Big Ten team coming off two down years and another scandal? Granted in the transfer portal/NIL era, you have a better chance of getting back up quicker but still seems an uphill climb. I would assume they would have to reach for a Matt Rhule (last year) or Sarkisian type (a few years ago) for a reclamation project (how bout a Josh Gattis - only a few years removed from his Broyles award!)

kdhoffma

September 12th, 2023 at 10:05 AM ^

You have a University and athletic department already under a giant cloud due to the Nassar abuse.   Now you have your 2nd most important coach under investigation for, at the very least, self admitted improper sexual conduct with a rape survivor who has made it her life’s work to educate regarding college sexual assault.  
 

You’d have to be a mental midget to believe saving some money somehow outranks the damage done to the program.

TK

September 12th, 2023 at 10:08 AM ^

That’s kind of where I’m at. I don’t see this as some great thing for MSU. Sure they will get a new coach, but I don’t see Deion or some hot coach lining up to take that job now. Especially with the structure of the Big Ten knowing it’s the 9th or 10th best job. 

alum96

September 12th, 2023 at 2:16 PM ^

They want to flip UW's coach who is about to depant them again.  Aside a money grab I don't see why that guy would leave a pretty damn good situation and uhh, being in the same conference anyhow.

This conference is going to be incredibly difficult - you have OSU, UM, PSU, USC in what would be a blue blood tier.  You have Oregon, UCLA, Washington joining Wisconsin in "pretty darn good although some of that came a bit ago".  Nebraska is lost in the wilderness so won't count them.  Iowa is always tough as long as Ferentz and really Fry to Ferentz it's been 4 decades of really good that Nebraska wishes it had the last 15 years.  So MSU comes into that range here at 8 to 10 level of job.  Maryland in some ways is more attractive as they have no expectations there for football and a rich recruiting area that is not dominated by Notre Dame, Michigan, OSU and increasingly PSU encroaching.  (along with the Kentucky's etc) 

MSU now willing to blow it's load on coaches but it's going to be a tough place to pull in someone who is in it for more than money because success is going to be difficult for all involved aside the top 2-3 yearly.  But if you want to get paid to be 7-5 8-4 9-3 it's going to be a destination.   Guy like Saban saw writing on the wall even at that point and it's going to be much more egregious go forward with the competition and depth of the conference.  Hell it's not going to be easy for the blue bloods. 

JBLPSYCHED

September 12th, 2023 at 1:24 PM ^

I agree--from MSU's perspective the worst part of this scandal is that it perpetuates the idea that they are clueless when it comes to hiring coaches who understand the need to move on from the past and maintain scrupulous boundaries going forward. And that's in addition to winning (or at least being competitive) in the B1G.

Tucker himself is a bad head coach and a complete fool for self-distructing the way that he apparently did. Without the Nassar history and without the basketball player scandals they would be able to get out of Tucker's contract and simply take another swing at finding the 'right' head coach.

But the history exists and the institution still reeks of scandal. They have a cardboard cutout for an AD and a lame (duck) interim president who completely fumbled the disclosure of the Tucker scandal and any associated communication. To my eye the whole place is a rudderless ship in a very stormy sea.

My prediction: the chances that they find a solid head coach who knows what he's doing on and off the field is <20%. The situation is simply too toxic for almost any coach to overcome.

unWavering

September 12th, 2023 at 10:11 AM ^

Well, MSU this far looks better than expected (against weak competition obviously). There's chatter that a few or a lot of their players are eyeing the transfer portal in the next couple of weeks to preserve their eligibility and essentially use this season as a redshirt season.

So at least in the immediate future this appears to really hurt the team.

AZBlue

September 12th, 2023 at 10:27 AM ^

I think they could lose some of the “big” recruits and transfers quickly - remember at least one of the DL (the former 4/5* transfer from A&M) had already expressed frustration that the MSU DL guru left for the NFL after everyone was locked to MSU for this year - this would eliminate the double transfer penalty iirc.

I think most kids would look at doing the redshirt and sit out thing - you would have to be REALLY talented (like a Keon Coleman type) to transfer mid-year and be able to function in a new system.

Denarded

September 12th, 2023 at 10:30 AM ^

MSU had a pre-season win total of 5.5 wins. I don't think a 10-7 halftime score vs CMU and a couple fortuitous bounces from losing at halftime vs. Richmond screamed "better than expected" 

Washington is currently -16 this weekend in EL. With how they've actually looked so far they are going to burn MSU's secondary alive. Once they get into Big Ten play it seems like they are going to completely fall apart .

willirwin1778

September 12th, 2023 at 12:06 PM ^

There is no precedent for this.  No comparable.  A $100 million dollar coach being run off for non-consensual phone sex in the wake of arguably the biggest mass sexual assault case in US history.

In my opinion it hurts short term, mid term and long term.  In terms of fielding a quality football team and recruiting parents to allow their kids to go to school there . . . I don't see how you overcome this stigma.  

It looks like a 5F Situation.  If you grew up a devout Sparty, and you want nothing to do with A2, why not just go play for Fleck, Ferentz, Fickell, Franklin and/or Freeman and avoid ever thinking about any of this ever again.  

    

 

alum96

September 12th, 2023 at 2:23 PM ^

Uhh CMU beat New Hampshire by a FG.  New Hampshire who played (wait for it) Stonehill in week 1.

Richmond Spiders the FCS giants lost at home week 1 to (wait for it) Morgan State. 

Their schedule is as bad as ours first 2 games - at least we don't have FCS fare. 

They will be 7-5 on their best day and most likely 6-6.  Come check back after Penix inserts himself into EL.

Dunder

September 12th, 2023 at 10:12 AM ^

All depends on the outcome of trade talks: MSU, Tucker and his contract to the Pac-12, BiG takes Wazzu, THE Oregon State University and the Pac-12 conference money bag.  The Izzo/Engler crowd get their own special island and we never hear from them again. Good for all (especially if that island has no cell service). 

PopeLando

September 12th, 2023 at 10:51 AM ^

Real talk, Charlie Weis is kinda my hero for his ability to tank two different football programs while getting paid ludicrous amounts of money to do so. He was so bad, two different schools paid him to NOT coach them. 

I could be that bad. I could EASILY be that bad. I want those millions!

If Weis gets his hands on Michigan State, I may have to build a statue of that guy.

PopeLando

September 12th, 2023 at 10:13 AM ^

Both.

It helps in the VERY short term. Because they can get out from under the contract.

But….what do they do next? I’m assuming there will be a settlement of some sort. And then they have to hire a replacement. What do you tell the replacement? “Oh we can’t afford to pay you, but hey if you don’t beat Michigan you’re gone”? “Hey, about that NIL…”

MSU fucked themselves by setting a market and expectations of their head coach: ‘beat Michigan and you get $100M’. 

Add in the optics here: either MSU doesn’t follow due process…or they follow due process until it becomes a news story. Any self-respecting coach wouldn’t be caught in this position…but it can’t be comforting to know how the Board of Trustees operates.

Their only two options are: 1) a slimy coach, or 2) an up-and-comer (pun intended!) who they can get for cheap and will jump ship after the first sign of success.

From a non-sports perspective, the university loses here, because they’ve repeatedly demonstrated that they cannot protect people from being sexually harassed, nor will they take decisive action if a complaint has been made. 

Imagine how this looks to any QUALITY university President who they’re trying to woo. I can’t imagine touching that job given the guarantee that the Board will undermine any attempts to be fair, balanced, open, and equitable. So once again, their choices are either someone slimy (welcome back Engler!) or a short term rental.

tl;dr - a semi-bungled sexual harassment scandal is always a bad thing

trueblueintexas

September 12th, 2023 at 11:25 AM ^

Imagine how this looks to any QUALITY university President who they’re trying to woo. I can’t imagine touching that job given the guarantee that the Board will undermine any attempts to be fair, balanced, open, and equitable.

I watched part of the press conference when they announced the suspension and when the interim president spoke, almost every sentence started with "This MSU". She may have even said "previously, MSU". 

She was obviously trying to make a point about the environment of the school changing. Sadly, it was at a press conference in which they were addressing a failure in the moral integrity of one of the key people in the athletic department which probably doesn't deliver the message the interim president was hoping for. 

LabattsBleu

September 12th, 2023 at 10:14 AM ^

Tucker was what? 7th on their list, and they had to circle back to him after the first no....This was picking up the pieces of a very successful Dantonio run.

I have my doubts about who they will be able to hire; there next coach isn't getting 9.5 million, certainly not to start unless he's a known quantity like an Urban Meyer.

Like any search, fans shoot for the stars at first and then gradually fall back to earth. I expect the same with MSU.