Comparing 2015 to a (potential) 2021 Roster. How a new coach (or Harbaugh in year 7) could have a barer cupboard than what was inherited.
When Harbaugh took over in 2015, he was taking over a 5-7 team that lost to Rutgers and Maryland, got blown out by average teams (Utah and Minnesota) and barely beat garbage teams in NW and Penn St. I know I wasn't too bullish on the 2015 team based on what we had seen from the years prior. Harbaugh right out of the gate had this group humming (3 straight shutouts over Power-5 opponents). In looking back at that roster however, it is amazing to see that it actually stacks up probably better than what a new coach, or Harbaugh in Year 7 will be working with. Here is just a comparison:
2015 vs 2021 Offense
QB: Morris (Speight, Malzone). *Did not include Rudock because Harbaugh brought him in after taking the job.
QB: Milton (Cade, JJ)
RB: Smith (Johnson, Isaac)
RB: Charbonnet, Haskins, Corum
WR: Darboh, Chesson (Harris, Ways)
WR: Bell, Johnson, Wilson, Henning
Slot: Perry (Canteen)
Slot: Sainristil, Giles
TE: Butt (Bunting)
TE: All (Schoonmaker)
LT: Cole
LT: Hayes
LG: Braden
LG: Barnhart
C: Glasgow
C: Vastardis/Carpenter
RG: Kalis
RG: Zinter
RT: Magnuson
RT: Stueber
2015 vs 2021 Defense
DE: Wormley & Charlton (Buck: RJS & Ojemudia).
DE: Vilian & Upshaw
DT: Glasgow, Henry, Hurst
DT: Jeter, Hinton, Welschof
LBs: Bolden, Morgan, Gedeon, Ross
LBs: McGrone, Ross, Barrett
CBs: Lewis, Stribling, Clark
CBs: Green, Perry, Gray
S: Peppers, Thomas, Hill
S: Hill, Hawkins, Paige
In looking and comparing these two rosters, I would absolutely take the 2015 roster over what projects to be the 2021. Harbaugh has sent way more players to the NFL and early to the NFL than Hoke ever did. Still, with all the success we had early in Harbaugh's tenure, the fact that a new coach, or Jim in year 7 will be working with a worse roster than he inherited from a program that had gone 12-13 in its previous two years; that is pretty disappointing.
If we do have a new coach, would you agree they are inheriting a worse team than Jim inherited?
November 10th, 2020 at 2:08 PM ^
Tuesday afternoon drinking eh.... Have a couple for me.
November 10th, 2020 at 2:33 PM ^
Too late, looks like he already did.
November 10th, 2020 at 2:08 PM ^
CC: Bear Cupboard
Hear me out! Okay, yes, Coach Cupboard isn't very successful, and doesn't recruit very well. But Bear is tough as nails and knows how to get the most out of the talent he does land. He's worth a look is all I'm saying.
November 10th, 2020 at 2:40 PM ^
I once saw Bear Cupboard eat a whole 96 ounce steak and then downed the gristle for dessert.
November 12th, 2020 at 6:35 AM ^
The old 96er lol. “If I get a couple deserts down him will you throw in some hats for the kids” what a great movie.
November 10th, 2020 at 2:12 PM ^
Eh it’s not that clear cut. Certain positions are better and some are worse. I would take 2021 offense and 2015 defense all day. But they’re not that far apart. Coaching is the thing. Harbaugh was a mad man in 2015. He wont be in 2021. That’s the difference. A new coach could take next years team and do very well with them just based off the mentality and motivation that the head coach brings.
November 10th, 2020 at 2:33 PM ^
The lists in the OP have me pretty optimistic, actually.
Not sure the fire being less apparent on the sidelines equates to the fire being gone overall. And I actually think talent level is higher overall with our potential 2021 squad.
November 10th, 2020 at 4:06 PM ^
2021 is probably better at most positions, except at CB and on the defensive line. However, I still think Seldon or another corner could develop before next year, but maybe that is wishful thinking
November 10th, 2020 at 5:16 PM ^
You would rather have what we have now than an All American Jake Butt, All Big Ten Amara Darboh, All Big Ten Jehu Chesson, and All Big Ten Rudock/Speight at QB?
Is this a serious take?
November 10th, 2020 at 7:44 PM ^
How many points did they score at Iowa?
November 11th, 2020 at 11:13 AM ^
How many points do you think we're gonna score this coming saturday?
November 10th, 2020 at 7:57 PM ^
None of those guys were all-anything yet. Rudock wasn't even on the roster. Chesson, Darboh, and Butt got coached up and turned into great players, but as Harbaugh was taking over they were not the players they would become.
I would take Milton's potential over Speight. The WR room is deeper and has more playmakers than when Harbaugh took over, and no question, Butt is better than any TE on the roster now, but you could argue the group of TE currently has more potential and depth overall.
With the right coaching, this could be a very dynamic offense!
November 11th, 2020 at 8:17 AM ^
Not sure if you're joking, but at this time in 2015 Ruddock already had started several games for Michigan. We were 7-2 at this time and had just come off a blowout win vs Rutgers. Darboh, Chesson and Butt were having really good seasons.
There was more talent on the 2015 team, period. And look at the O Line too, I'd take that 201 O Line in a second over the one we have right now.
Milton has more potential than Rudock, but Rudock was a clearly better college QB than Milton to this point.
November 11th, 2020 at 9:05 AM ^
I know what you mean. Rudock was a great QB, that Florida game was one of the best. But if I remember right we were frustrated with him. Our defense was amazing and I would take 2015 defense any day. Peppers was a game changer. But the offense looked great I believe mainly because of Jedd Fisch and all the crazy plays we were doing. Our offense has gotten very predictive. Our QB is better now compared to last year. Our WRs and TE are worse. And this maybe the worst CB play I have seen out of Michigan in the decade. Dax is doing his damn best to make that secondary not not be absolute crap.
November 11th, 2020 at 9:39 AM ^
imagine these offensive quick and fast players in the Jake and Wilton offenses when we actually had a defense... ah to have a balanced team. Also, running backs that see and hit holes
November 10th, 2020 at 2:13 PM ^
Isn't Vastardis a 5th year right now?
November 10th, 2020 at 2:22 PM ^
Yeah, but I don't think this season counts for anyone. They could invite him back if they didn't think Carpenter is ready to take the reins, but my guess is he'll get a firm handshake to open the scholarship and Carpenter will take over.
November 10th, 2020 at 4:48 PM ^
That does mean that Evans, Eubanks, Hawkins and Paye could return too. I mean, you know, if for some reason the latter were inclined to turn down guaranteed millions as a 1st-rounder.
November 10th, 2020 at 5:27 PM ^
This actually brings up a good question. For guys already in their 5th years, which was a team option, do they get to come back next year if they want to or is it still a team option? I'm guessing they need to be offered another year.
If so, I doubt Evans and Eubanks will get offered another year. Hawkins probably given the depth at safety.
November 10th, 2020 at 2:14 PM ^
No, he won’t. Michigan has much more talent offensively. Like not even close.
Defensively is more in question, but even there Michigan has plenty of four stars.
Talent isn’t the issue.
November 10th, 2020 at 2:23 PM ^
This needs to be more recognized. There is absolutely zero chance our DBs are that much less talented than receivers playing for MSU / Indiana and the like. it's coaching.
November 10th, 2020 at 3:41 PM ^
I agree with this. The regression in the defensive backfield is truly inexplicable. It literally looks like these guys are being coached the opposite of correct technique. I really have never seen anything like it in my 20+ years of following college football.
Vince Gray was a pedestrian, albeit competent B1G corner back in 2019. This year he is a cratering black hole of liability. The defensive scheme has done nothing to lessen the exposure for these guys and their technique looks like a wide receiver was called off the bench in the middle of the game because there were no other options left. I mean the level of total lack of competency from the coaches and players preparation, discipline and technique is something I have never personally seen from any football team.
The only word I can come up with is inexplicable, I don't know how to explain what I am seeing other than they've spent the last two weeks building a deck and installing an above ground pool instead of studying film and practicing football.
November 10th, 2020 at 2:27 PM ^
I'd love a pairing of the 2015 defensive players and the 2020 offensive players.
November 10th, 2020 at 3:00 PM ^
Not so sure about that one. QB and RB are the only places where I would say 2020 has the edge. WR and TE I would say were definitely better in 2015.
November 10th, 2020 at 3:42 PM ^
There's significantly more talent at OL now than there was at the end of 2014. The 2015 team had a couple good players but no depth at all because of attrition from the 2013 class. Some of that gets lost when you only see the starters like the OP showed, but the lack of depth meant in 2015 they were forced to start guys like Braden and Kalis that just weren't that good.
But when next years RT is going to be either Steuber or Trente Jones, you can feel good that the better of the two will probably be very good. And if it's Jones, then you can put Steuber inside, there's still Rumler and Keegan and so on.
The 2021 team should have a ton of talented and experienced linemen to choose from and that will be a gift to the next coach if there is one. That line should be a lot better than the 2015 line.
In fact, I would say the line situations are exactly flip flopped since 2015. 2015 was a deep, talented DL and a shaky OL with no depth. 2021 should be a deep, talented OL and a shaky DL with no depth.
November 10th, 2020 at 4:14 PM ^
SQ, if talent truly isn’t the issue, then where we are falls 100% on Jim Harbaugh.
Furthermore, unless Indiana is the “once in a generation” talented team, Indiana looked a significantly more talented team than Michigan. Like not even close.
We are seeing what happens when coaching incompetence meets poor planning of recruiting and lack of player development. For goodness sakes, let’s not forget, Milton isn’t a true Freshman out there. The dude is a Junior for all intents and purposes.
November 10th, 2020 at 4:38 PM ^
Inferior talent to the competition is an even bigger condemnation of Harbaugh IMO. A fair argument can be made this is Harbaugh's least talented team, in his 6th season, which coincidentally means all the Hoke recruits are now gone. Last Saturday looked to me like Indiana was the more talented team . . . was there anywhere on the field where Michigan had a clear physical advantage outside of Paye? Fielding a team physically inferior to Indiana is a failing greater than any scheme/gameplan gaffe. MSU's nobody receivers and QB had career games against U-M. Zero sacks against MSU's OL is not good. U-M's OL has been dominated in the run game by both MSU and Indiana. The horses just don't seem to be there, and if they are, the player development is an entire conversation in and of itself.
November 10th, 2020 at 6:29 PM ^
Michgan is far more talented than IU, overall.
The problem is that Michigan isn't talented at corner back but their defense puts a ton of leverage on cornerbacks being able to cover. Hence it's kind of a weakest link breakdown. And the talent can mostly be blamed on Harbaugh but Ambry Thomas leaving was devastating. Pushed a shaky situation over the edge.
And Michigan just doesn't have good offensive coaching which is 100% on Harbaugh. Their game plans and play calling is atrocious.
November 10th, 2020 at 4:51 PM ^
Absolutely agree with this. There is never any flexibility, it' aways ...OK "square" guys goddammit, get your ass in that "round" hole and make plays.
November 10th, 2020 at 2:14 PM ^
Need longer title. We can still see at least two other posts. To your point-yes, I think there is less talent on the roster now than there was at the start of 2015. I don't think it's especially close.
November 10th, 2020 at 2:14 PM ^
These players are fine. Their biggest problem is they don't play hard. That's on the coaches. The coaches make bonehead mistakes and let the team play flat. Fix those simple things and this team won't underachieve anymore.
Just fucking play hard.
November 10th, 2020 at 2:55 PM ^
How do you know they aren't playing hard? Because they are getting beat on the field?
Have you ever tried to play football when you're a kid (or any sport for that matter) and you have to matchup against a better athlete then you? You get beat downfield because you have physical limitations, then someone wants to dump on your effort.
Maybe they just aren't that good, maybe the coaches are setting them up for failure, but my guess is it isn't because they aren't trying hard.
November 10th, 2020 at 3:23 PM ^
You somehow believe your sandlot example is an apples to apples deal-oh my!
November 10th, 2020 at 4:29 PM ^
It is a fair comparison. OSU torched Watson because he couldn't run with their receivers. Gray has been lit up the last two weeks because he can't run with faster receivers. Better athletes will always have an advantage regardless of level. Add in schemes that don't minimize weaknesses, and that athletic deficit is magnified.
November 10th, 2020 at 4:43 PM ^
I don't think it is unfair to say that when you are matched up with someone one on one, the better athlete will usually come out on top.
I played basketball all my life including through highs chool, my brother in law never played basketball growing up at all. He is, however, a much better athlete than I ever was (both parents were division 1 athletes in the big ten). We used to play a lot of one on one basketball, and when we first started playing I would beat him all the time because I would use ball fakes and simple things like that. When he caught on, he started to beat me because he is:
- 4 inches taller
- a lot faster
- quicker
- stronger
- jumps higher
I am a more skilled basketball player, and would be more beneficial in a 5 on 5 setting than him, but he can beat me one on one now. The guys on the outside are playing one on one and losing.
November 10th, 2020 at 4:49 PM ^
Do you watch the games? Does it look like they're playing hard? I see very little fire and focus on the Michigan sideline. Playing hard is not just about being more athletic than the other guy (also - are you saying Michigan State and Indiana has better players and athletes?). It's also about catching the ball and not jumping offsides. It's about going 100% on a block or tackle, whether or not that player is bigger, stronger or more athletic.
I've played a lot of sports in my life and I've lost matchups to lesser players because I wasn't sharp or focused enough. I've also lost games because the other teams were ready and wanted it more. And I've been in games in which my team played its ass off but just ended up on the losing side. But, I've also been on some very talented and athletic teams and knew that if we played hard and focused we were very tough to beat.
Michigan has talent - but it beats itself far too often. They need to learn that they can easily lose to weaker teams if they don't go 100%. And by the same token there's no way they beat better teams like Ohio State if they themselves don't go 100%.
Edit: Losing sucks. Losing hard-fought games really hurts. But you know what's worse? Losing games in which you KNOW you could've played better.
November 10th, 2020 at 3:37 PM ^
Play hard, but for the love of God, only after the snap and not before a receiver starts to make a play on the ball.
November 10th, 2020 at 2:15 PM ^
Sounds like a question for Diaries.
November 10th, 2020 at 3:01 PM ^
I am not in to conspiracy theories (yes I am) but would it blow your mind if Mr. Putingrad is actually Brian and he is not actually disregarding the board after all? It would connect so many fuzzy dots out there.
November 10th, 2020 at 2:15 PM ^
The 2021 offense is way, way more talented
November 10th, 2020 at 4:37 PM ^
Username checks out.
November 10th, 2020 at 2:15 PM ^
Barer? I hardly know her!
November 10th, 2020 at 2:17 PM ^
Yes, Hoke recruited extremely well in 2012 and 2013, particularly on defense, and Harbaugh inherited that roster (pretty sure 11 guys got drafted after the 2016 season).
OL was shaky and QB was rough but the Rudock transfer put the offense in good enough shape for those elite defenses.
The offense could be far better in 2021 if Milton continues to develop and the OL develops into its talent. There's a ton of talent on offense, moreso than Harbaugh inherited.
There is less talent on defense but if Seldon and another CB emerges, the secondary could actually be good with Green and Hill. DTs like Hinton should continue to get better.
The defense will be worse than 2015 but maybe by only as much as the offense should be better. Much depends on how some guys develop but the talent is comparable or even better on the 2021 roster (but you might be optimistic in assuming McGrone and some other guys you have on there come back).
November 10th, 2020 at 2:18 PM ^
I would take most of the 2021 position groups over 2015, particularly at qb, most of the offensive line, and linebackers.
There are really only two groups that look worse in 2021, defensive line and corner backs. With a new defensive system capable of integrating zone, the new coach could partially mask the slow cb issues. The defensive line would be functional, just not amazing like we're used to.
November 10th, 2020 at 2:20 PM ^
Offensive side of the ball isn't bare. They aren't playing great but their is a boatload of talent. The offensive line has been replenished which will be helpful for this staff or the next. The Defensive side of the ball could use some work. Seems we've recruited linebacker well but totally missed in other areas. I still don't understand why we struggle getting pure DT's or CB's that can run.
November 10th, 2020 at 2:20 PM ^
You basically summed up why this roster is struggling this year. We have a SUPER young team, we always new we were replacing a lot this year. Very 1st offensive play against IU on Saturday, there were 10 starters on the field that did not start last year (everyone minus Bell).
On defense 6 new starters. 7 once you take into account Hutch went out after the first series.
That 2015 team was experienced by the time Harbaugh took over. Whether JH or another coach is on the sidelines in 2021, the roster will play much, much better.
Those 10 new starters on offense, they could ALL be back next year. I'd say that Vastardis is likely to be the only one gone to be honest (Eubanks wasn't out there, but him and All are interchangable this year).
Next year is in-line to be a 2016 type year where everything clicks and you bring back most of a roster, especially on offense.
November 10th, 2020 at 2:31 PM ^
Eh, Wisconsin and good teams regularly reload their OLs. All of Michigan's day 1 starters had been in the program for 3 or more years.
Experience might be the reason Michigan wasn't going to be elite this year but it is not the reason Michigan lost to MSU and IU. The reasons were 1) terrible offensive coaching/game plans 2) very bad CB(s).
That's it.
November 10th, 2020 at 2:25 PM ^
I think there is some revisionist history for 2015 - coming out of 2014 we had no QB, the RBs were uninspiring, the WRs were difficult to judge because of how terrible the OLine was. TE was the only offensive position anyone could feel good about and that was because of Butt.
The defense coming out of 2014 was also tough to judge because of how much they had to play while the offense constantly stunk but I don't think people were very high on a lot of the guys who ended up performing superbly for Harbaugh. They showed potential but I don't think anyone expected a new coach to take the D to those new heights so quickly.
All of this is to say - a new coach could take some guys who haven't looked great and make them look much better in a new system or with new coaching or a new environment; and I think we feel a lot better about several position groups right now than we did in 2014 (RBs, OLine, WRs, LBs).
November 10th, 2020 at 2:40 PM ^
No, the 2012 and 2013 recruiting classes were both top 5. There was a TON of talent, particularly on defense. That group was destined to be great and send a bunch of players to the NFL (which they did).
Yes, the QB room was non-existent so good on Harbaugh for getting a solid transfer. The OL was terrible in 2014 mostly because it was really young (true freshman Mason Cole at OT anyone?). There was some talent on that line like Graham Glasgow and Erik Magnuson both of whom ended up being all-conference later in their careers. They were just very young that year and lacked the depth that could keep young guys off the field. Harbaugh inherited a decent OL, even if not very deep thanks to some early departures.