Comparing 2015 to a (potential) 2021 Roster. How a new coach (or Harbaugh in year 7) could have a barer cupboard than what was inherited.
When Harbaugh took over in 2015, he was taking over a 5-7 team that lost to Rutgers and Maryland, got blown out by average teams (Utah and Minnesota) and barely beat garbage teams in NW and Penn St. I know I wasn't too bullish on the 2015 team based on what we had seen from the years prior. Harbaugh right out of the gate had this group humming (3 straight shutouts over Power-5 opponents). In looking back at that roster however, it is amazing to see that it actually stacks up probably better than what a new coach, or Harbaugh in Year 7 will be working with. Here is just a comparison:
2015 vs 2021 Offense
QB: Morris (Speight, Malzone). *Did not include Rudock because Harbaugh brought him in after taking the job.
QB: Milton (Cade, JJ)
RB: Smith (Johnson, Isaac)
RB: Charbonnet, Haskins, Corum
WR: Darboh, Chesson (Harris, Ways)
WR: Bell, Johnson, Wilson, Henning
Slot: Perry (Canteen)
Slot: Sainristil, Giles
TE: Butt (Bunting)
TE: All (Schoonmaker)
LT: Cole
LT: Hayes
LG: Braden
LG: Barnhart
C: Glasgow
C: Vastardis/Carpenter
RG: Kalis
RG: Zinter
RT: Magnuson
RT: Stueber
2015 vs 2021 Defense
DE: Wormley & Charlton (Buck: RJS & Ojemudia).
DE: Vilian & Upshaw
DT: Glasgow, Henry, Hurst
DT: Jeter, Hinton, Welschof
LBs: Bolden, Morgan, Gedeon, Ross
LBs: McGrone, Ross, Barrett
CBs: Lewis, Stribling, Clark
CBs: Green, Perry, Gray
S: Peppers, Thomas, Hill
S: Hill, Hawkins, Paige
In looking and comparing these two rosters, I would absolutely take the 2015 roster over what projects to be the 2021. Harbaugh has sent way more players to the NFL and early to the NFL than Hoke ever did. Still, with all the success we had early in Harbaugh's tenure, the fact that a new coach, or Jim in year 7 will be working with a worse roster than he inherited from a program that had gone 12-13 in its previous two years; that is pretty disappointing.
If we do have a new coach, would you agree they are inheriting a worse team than Jim inherited?
November 10th, 2020 at 3:11 PM ^
Yes, I agree there was a lot of talent but was anyone ready to declare those players as being the foundation of a team competing for the playoffs during the 2014 season? I would argue even with the positive things shown, no one was ready to say that.
And we're in the same spot now. We have some holes on the team (CB, DT) but have tons of talent that is being questioned as to whether or not it can be the foundation of a team competing for the playoffs. Could a new coach take this team to the heights Harbaugh took the players from that 2014 team to?
November 10th, 2020 at 3:50 PM ^
Possibly, if Harbaugh was the same coach as he was in 2015. He is no longer that guy. So, the answer is no.
November 10th, 2020 at 4:09 PM ^
It's always hard to evaluate players when the coaching is so bad, which was the case in 2014. And I don't remember if it was clear how good Glasgow, Henry and Hurst were going to be in 2014 since they were projects moreso than no brainer guys. But once they did develop, hoooo boy was that a DL. Hoke and Mattison can't be faulted for what they did with those DLs.
If Milton hits like that, and the offense is much better coached in 2021, I can absolutely envision the offense being a top 3 offense that carries the team to the cusp of the playoffs next year.
One more CB (ugh, Ambry) and good offensive coaching and this is an entirely different team, right now.
November 10th, 2020 at 4:26 PM ^
You are spot on here and I agree completely.
Overall, I don't think this current team is less talented than 2014 or 2015, but man do they seem poorly coached and to have glaring weaknesses in the roster.
November 10th, 2020 at 6:36 PM ^
I just looked and you are correct. The 2012 and 2013 classes were extremely highly rated. I forgot how good of a recruiter Hoke was in some regards. Those classes made Harbaugh and the coaches look pretty good at the start of their tenure. If Hoke would have landed a stud QB we might have gotten a championship out of those classes.
November 10th, 2020 at 2:27 PM ^
The offense is much better next year and the defenses are probably a wash (the linebackers are better next season, corners worse, the line and safeties are about even).
November 10th, 2020 at 2:49 PM ^
The DL is even? Not. Even. Close. Glasgow, Henry and Hurst were incredible. All three of them far better than any of the DTs project to be next year. And Charlton and Wormley will probably be significantly better than anyone M runs out at DE next year.
I think you forget how dominant those DLs were for Michigan (maybe because Glasgow was injured the last two games of 2015?).
November 10th, 2020 at 3:25 PM ^
Mo Hurst in 2015 was an emerging piece. Henry and Glasgow were better tackles than UM has now but I'm high on guys like Ojabo and Vilain, plus McGregor seems like a good bet to be a Winovich-style disruptor once he sees the field.
So much of a team's defensive line play relies on good secondary coverage. I may be underrating 2015 a bit but I also just looked up the 2015 roster and yikes about the depth in the secondary. Honestly, it might be closer than we all think on that front next year.
November 10th, 2020 at 2:29 PM ^
So after the mass exodus because the coaching staff is gone, and who the hell knows who gets brought in but it is more likely to be underwhelming like Hoke, and hey you can transfer and immediately play these days so why not go somewhere know than stick around for God knows what ...
none of this will be true.
November 10th, 2020 at 3:38 PM ^
The resemblance to Don brown is uncanny.
November 10th, 2020 at 7:44 PM ^
Nice call, I didn't even notice
November 10th, 2020 at 2:46 PM ^
Assuming there isn't huge attrition, I actually think this is a pretty solid roster.
The only position of concern would be... QB. Which, how ass backwards is that?
November 10th, 2020 at 3:02 PM ^
Agree with this take. There's talent, much of it very young. And an incoming QB that oozes program-defining potential (I know - we've heard that before). Offensively, we have more more team speed than the previous decade-plus.
It's strange. I didn't have high expectations entering this season (especially sans Thomas and Collins) and mentally chose to treat any games held during covid times as bonus football. I expected this to be a transition/rebuilding year with appropriately muted expectations, so I'm not as despondent as many fans. But I'm still despondent, mostly because I think our fanbase would have been more well-equipped to handle a transition/rebuilding year amidst covid times if last year had been more successful.
November 12th, 2020 at 6:38 AM ^
I felt the same way. The fact tay we aren’t competing for a NC doesn’t surprise or bother me in the least, I’m just grateful for football. The way things are going makes every game a gift.
November 10th, 2020 at 2:53 PM ^
Idc if they keep Harbaugh or go in a different direction
I just wish you motherfuckers would stop crying
November 10th, 2020 at 2:59 PM ^
Absolutely and that is reason enough to move on.
November 10th, 2020 at 3:00 PM ^
You aren't including the 2020 recruits for what will be available in 2021 (which is fair since they haven't signed yet)
November 10th, 2020 at 3:02 PM ^
If they can hold on, the incoming offensive class is going to be elite. Probably Harbaugh's best on that side of the ball. The issue is that we have a bunch of recruiting dead weight on defense. Brown is a mediocre recruiter, Shoop is on a vision quest or something and isn't even coaching, Zordich emerges to recruit one player every couple of years, and Nua strikes out constantly.
November 10th, 2020 at 6:46 PM ^
you nailed the recruiting issues on defense
November 10th, 2020 at 3:00 PM ^
I would easily take the 2021 roster on offense. The 2015 defensive roster is MUCH better than the 2021 roster.
November 10th, 2020 at 3:01 PM ^
OK, if mental masturbation is the path we are taking, do you think Joe Brady's bedtime and curfew rules will hold Michigan back in recruiting? Or will someone talk sense into his mother?
November 10th, 2020 at 3:21 PM ^
I really hope Brad Hawkins is gone after this year, he's not good at football things.
November 10th, 2020 at 3:21 PM ^
I would happily take that 2015 defense. Hoke and Mattison could put a DL on the field.
November 10th, 2020 at 3:57 PM ^
Been saying this in other threads. We have 1 top 100 recruit in our 2 deep on offense. Ohio State has 16 in their 2 deep. This roster is the least talented since Harbaugh has been here.
The coaches and media brag about our players too much and give us fans a false sense of their ability.
November 10th, 2020 at 4:02 PM ^
The good news is that reinforcements are on the way on offense if we can hold the 2021 class together. That class has 3 top-75 offensive players. Between Moore, Harbaugh Jr., and Gattis the offensive recruiting seems to have been fixed. The bad news is that we have a bunch of coaches on the defensive side of the ball who can't/won't recruit.
November 10th, 2020 at 4:08 PM ^
Pretty sure we're gonna be losing more games this year and that will have an impact on recruiting.
November 10th, 2020 at 5:50 PM ^
Pretty sure Ohio State has more than 3 coming in, so we are losing more ground.
November 10th, 2020 at 7:00 PM ^
Top 100 is an arbitrary cut off. And sure, it's not close to OSU but Michigan has FAR more top 250 recruits (or top 500 or where ever you cut it off) on the offensive 2 deep than MSU, Wisconsin, IU, and all other B1G teams save maybe PSU...and yet.
Michigan is less talented than OSU but they're also dramatically underperforming the talent they have. Both can be true.
November 10th, 2020 at 4:07 PM ^
I hope our next coach is big on teaching fundamentals. Seeing a solid team each Saturday ready to play and not do stupid things would be a vast improvement.
November 10th, 2020 at 4:18 PM ^
My kingdom for Glasgow, Henry, and Hurst inside. THAT is good recruiting and development of DTs.
November 10th, 2020 at 7:12 PM ^
We should also admit that was a bit of luck. Henry was barely a top 1000 low three star. Glasgow was a walk on. I think Hurst was borderline 3/4 star? Yes, Hoke and Mattison definitely had an eye for those guys and developed them well but to have a hit rate like that requires some luck too.
That said, it feels like the luck has swung the other way. Jeter was significant recruiting win and is merely decent well into his career. Hinton isn't playing like a second year 5 star. Smith is non-existent. None of the flyers have hit yet except kind of Welschof.
November 10th, 2020 at 5:05 PM ^
Certainly wouldn't walk into a loaded defensive line I'll say that
November 10th, 2020 at 5:25 PM ^
There are a lot of guys that have NFL potential, but have eligibility remaining with this year being a freebie and retaining some of them will be a key.
- Mayfield - 98% gone
- Paye - 98% gone
- McGrone - 60/40 lean towards gone
- Hutchinson - 50/50
- Eubanks - No sure on NFL projection, but seems to likely gone
- Hayes - Likely returns
- Bell - Likely returns
- Hawkins - Not sure on NFL projection, likely returns if UM wants back
- Kemp - Not sure on NFL projection, likely return if UM wants back
- Ross - Likely returns
I think Hutchinson, McGrone, Hayes, & Bell are the keys to getting back as Mayfield & Paye are a pretty sure bet to be gone, and the others seem likely to return if wanted back.
November 10th, 2020 at 6:10 PM ^
Hutch is an interesting one. I would have put him at 98% gone before the injury. He might not heal enough in time for the combine now.
November 10th, 2020 at 7:01 PM ^
He looked like a late first round or second round pick against Minnesota, but as we're seeing that is not a good measuring stick. I don't think he did anything to help himself against MSU and was OK against Indiana. He still may decide to leave and the NFL may just look at 6'6" 270 and say "yes please" because potential is more important than production. Then again, his parents have money and are educated, so they may value education over needing the pay day now. I could see him going either way. You'd think with Vilain, Ojabo, Upshaw, & McGregor there's enough in the cupboard, but it would be nice to have some leadership there.
November 10th, 2020 at 7:26 PM ^
He looked like an AA/Top 10 pick against Minnesota and still a first rounder against MSU. See the UFR. But yeah, given that he's a legacy, doesn't need the money and now has the injury, I hope there's a chance he comes back.
November 10th, 2020 at 5:30 PM ^
My god hindsight is 20/20.
I get it, this year has sucked. Our DB's are totally lost and the DT haven't shown up. But the talent level and depth of this team is miles ahead of what we had in 2015.
We got our hopes up because of the talent level of this team. What we should have been paying attention to is that we are replacing our starting QB, 3 of our top 4 WRs, 4 of our OLinemen, Two starting LB's, both starting cornerbacks, and one starting safety.
GUESS where we are struggling?
Lost your starting QB? You're probably going to struggle with inconsistency. Check
Lost your top receivers? You're probably going to see lots of drops/poor route running. Check
Lost your 80% of your offensive line? You're probably going to see poor pass protection and run blocking Check
Lost 66% of your LB's, your two best CB's and a safety? You're probably looking at a disaster in pass coverage. Check
We had high hopes that we could reload not rebuild but we aren't OSU, Bama, Clemson, or Georgia. This had down year/rebuild written all over it.
I'll finish this off by saying that there are glaring coaching deficiencies and this is not a support post for Harbaugh, Gattis, or Brown. The penalties are inexcusable. Most of that has been on defense and I blame Harbaugh and Brown (mostly Brown). Would I like a coaching change? Yes. But only if there is a candidate that is either equal to or better than Harbaugh (sorry no PJ Fleck doesn't move the needle for me). In terms of Don Brown, he needed to be gone two years ago.
Do I think this team will crater in 2021? Not at all. Lets say Harbaugh is given another year. This year is essentially a throw away season. Get your most talented players as many reps as possible. Even if that means getting true freshman Seldon, Green-Warren, Moten, Paige, and Morant. I've seen enough from Gray to know he is physically too limited to play CFB. For the love of god, play Hinton and Smith more, just to get them more game experience. They are your highest upside DT's. Braiden McGregor taking some of Hutchinson's reps? SURE.
Do everything in your power to make sure the 2021 team has as much experience and talent as possible. Personally, I think Milton is the real deal. Give him a year of experience, a better offensive line and running game and I think he will be our best QB since Henne. The ceiling for 2021 is higher than any year we've had because of Milton.
November 10th, 2020 at 6:12 PM ^
I agree with literally everything in this post.
November 10th, 2020 at 7:32 PM ^
Nah, you don't have to be one of the top teams to replace guys effectively. Wisconsin replaces a majority of their OL all the time and doesn't skip a beat. None of the guys starting had fewer than three years in the program. Not being as good as last year is one thing, but not being able to run on IU is inexcusable. That's a coaching issue, just like it was early last year when we had an NFL OL and couldn't run on Army.
November 11th, 2020 at 8:31 AM ^
Again, not an apology post for the coaches. To Wisconsin and others credit, they clearly have a system in place that doesn’t rely on talent. There does seem to be an inherent ceiling to those types of teams though (not that we don’t also have a ceiling). We are not the Wisconsin’s or Iowa’s of the world. We are the Texas, Florida, USC’s of the world and there is an insane amount of pressure to succeed at all these schools. Coaches rarely are given the time to establish that type of system and culture because unless you are winning conference championships and are in the national tittle race within the first few years your seat starts to get hot.
So maybe we have two options:
Opt A - Let a flawed coach who has an inherent ceiling stay with the program long enough to establish a culture and system that will instill a consistently good and occasionally great team (Paul Cryst, Mark Dantonio type teams) and accept the reality that we will never be an OSU or Bama (dominant dynasties).
Opt B - Continue a coaching carousel every 3-5 years until we finally make that dream hire that can launch us into the OSU/Bama level. This is obviously the high risk/high reward route, which is basically the route Michigan, USC, and Texas have been doing for more than a decade. The only problem with this strategy is that the longer it takes to find the perfect coach, the worse the program gets and the harder it is for any coach to succeed.
Or...there is a third option. We have a solid coach in Harbaugh. Good but definitely not great. Why not let him keep the team afloat and let him build a system of consistency until the right coach becomes available? Panic firing and hiring whoever is available is probably the worst case scenario in my opinion. Why would we destroy any progress we’ve made from the Hoke and Rich Rod years (and if you deny there has been progress than you are just a Maizen idiot) so we can hire someone who is likely not that big of an upgrade just for some change?
i personally think we should let Harbaugh do his thing until we actually have another coaching candidate that is realistic and that we love. It’ll be much easier to convince a top tier coach to accept a job at a consistent 8-10 win team than if we make another Hoke or Rich rod hire and tank the team.
November 11th, 2020 at 9:07 AM ^
The third option IS the first option.
November 10th, 2020 at 5:39 PM ^
The defense will be nowhere close to what Harbaugh inherited. Worse yet, the depth will be a huge concern. Curious if somebody can list the changes in coaching since Jim took over. At this point, outside of Warriner (who is the one coach I still have faith in to turn his group around), I would say that the majority of the coaches are worse than those that kicked off Jim's regime. I do believe that talent is an issue, but you could not convince me for one second that the talent on this team is worse than at MSU. This staff has failed miserably with getting the team fired up to go out and take care of business. Too often our four or five star players play like lesser ranked players whereas other schools seem to coach up their three star players.
November 10th, 2020 at 5:54 PM ^
My question is what would be the impact of changing just the defensive coordinator, and whatever position coaches the new dc brings? Is the enough for now given that Gattis has potential?
November 10th, 2020 at 5:58 PM ^
If it's goodbye Harbaugh, it's goodbye JJ.
November 10th, 2020 at 7:29 PM ^
November 10th, 2020 at 7:50 PM ^
If McGrone goes, maybe defense is worse.
November 10th, 2020 at 9:03 PM ^
Oy, awful take ... I think I would take 11 out of 11 2021 positions on offense (Darboh and Chesson were very very solid, but not sure chesson > sophomore roman wilson) and the LBs. But you are right about 2 very important things ... the CBs and entire DL are just at entirely different levels.
November 11th, 2020 at 1:49 AM ^
Wait until the portal opens and sucks the cupboard up