September 16th, 2019 at 11:34 AM ^
If I remember correctly, they're never high on Michigan anyways
September 16th, 2019 at 11:37 AM ^
Sounds like most of it is their experience with Shea Patterson at ole miss. They actually picked us to beat OSU last year and win 10 games this year with a deciding game against OSU.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:53 AM ^
Yep, they picked us against OSU and us against Penn St in 2017 when we got destroyed. Their stuff is based on analytics and probabilities.
September 16th, 2019 at 1:28 PM ^
LOL at "analytics and probabilities". The people that know what they are doing bet (especially now, since it's so easy online). The people that don't make podcasts and try and get youtube views.
September 16th, 2019 at 3:19 PM ^
Their stuff is based on analytics and probabilities.
There isn't a large enough sample size for 2019's rosters to analyze, so they're basically comparing their projections from last year to what they've seen so far this year. Until Wiscy plays someone with a pulse there isn't anything worthwhile to analyze.
September 16th, 2019 at 5:36 PM ^
Teams are so different, and there are so many variables year to year and then even week to week that it's very difficult to produce much that is quantifiably useful. Fun to play around with, but not great for making predictions.
September 16th, 2019 at 9:30 PM ^
Teams are actually different week to week.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:35 AM ^
What reason does anybody have not to pick Wisconsin at this point? Hopefully UM embraces being the underdog and comes out with something to prove.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:37 AM ^
Exactly.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:53 AM ^
It’s like we’ve seen this before - come out after the bye week uninspired, get behind early, then forced to open things up to mount a comeback, fall short and then have everyone complain that Harbaugh should’ve been running a quick strike spread the defense out offense the whole game.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:15 PM ^
I know you're just an ignorant troll and I shouldn't respond, but Jim is 3-1 at Michigan following the bye week. The only loss was the 2017 MSU JOK/Rain game.
In the 3 games where we had a healthy starting QB entering the game:
- Win: 29-26 at Minnesota
- Win: 41-8 vs. Illinois
- Win: 42-7 vs. Penn State
Setting aside the year our starting QB broke his back, we've come out of the bye week ready to play and won every game.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:25 PM ^
This also includes a year (2015) where the starting QB (Rudock) was knocked out of the game in the second half and a clearly-not-ready Wilton Speight engineering what was the game-winning drive.
But yeah, trolls gonna troll.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:31 PM ^
Not to mention Minnesota caught roughly 3000 breaks to be even be in the game.
September 16th, 2019 at 1:51 PM ^
Not to mention a Minnesota team playing inspired football after their coach Jerry Kill announced his retirement midseason due to health issues. And it was Halloween, weird shit always happens on Halloween.
September 16th, 2019 at 1:11 PM ^
Spicoli picked a win... BOOK IT!
September 16th, 2019 at 7:07 PM ^
What’s his record when his opponent has a bye week before playing us?
September 16th, 2019 at 12:15 PM ^
I mostly agree, but...
247sports Team Talent Composite:
- Michigan - 11th (853.40 points)
- Wisconsin - 33rd (675.80 points), behind North Carolina, Arizona State, and Maryland
September 16th, 2019 at 3:25 PM ^
This game will be won in the trenches. Whoever controls the line of scrimmage will win. Wiscy generally has a good o-line and RB, but lacks WRs and a QB to get them the ball. Cephus has looked good so far. UM has not been great stopping the run and has struggled to get their offense going. If both teams continue to do what they've done it's an easy win for Wiscy. My hunch is UM will show a bit more offensively and tighten things up because they know they have to win. But, will they do enough to shut down Taylor & Cephus and to score some points of their own? They sure have the talent to do so, but it remains to be seen if they can put it into action.
September 16th, 2019 at 4:52 PM ^
I look forward to a time when we regularly whitewash teams like Wisconsin that have inferior talent to us. Ohio State has beaten Wisconsin six straight times and nine out of ten. We should, too.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:39 PM ^
What reason does anybody have not to pick Wisconsin at this point?
Well, we did beat them by 25 one year ago.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:56 PM ^
This.
UM returns basically the same team the controlled UW on both sides of the ball last year.
September 16th, 2019 at 1:03 PM ^
With the exception of the four all BIG performers that we lost to the NFL draft at the end of last season and a three year starter at safety and the presumed heir apparent at defensive tackle.
Aside from that, yeah, same team.
September 16th, 2019 at 4:22 PM ^
I'm pretty sure Gary was out, but everything else you said is true.
September 16th, 2019 at 1:10 PM ^
That is a flat out lie! 4 of our best players on defense from the previous season are playing in the NFL. Our 2 best RB’s from last season are gone. We are still trying to get a new offense rolling that we didn’t have last year. Needless to say a bunch of things have changed from last season, and that doesn’t even equate for the Wisconsin side of things.
I thought we learned our lesson during the 2017 season when everybody and their mother proclaimed since we rolled PSU in 2016, we were a lock to beat them on the road that year. How did that work out for us?
September 16th, 2019 at 3:20 PM ^
Yeah, I don't know how many times we have to go through this exercise before people realize: 1) these teams go through a lot of personnel turnover both amongst the players and the coaches and 2) home field his a huge advantage at a lot of B1G stadiums (the home teams have DOMINATED in each of the last three years in the PSU series and each of the last two years in the Wisconsin series which meant the outcomes swung wildly from year to year).
September 16th, 2019 at 3:31 PM ^
We had the d-line to handle PSU in 2016 and 2018. In 2017 our d-line was still developing. My hunch is the same could be true in 2019. But, PSU also doesn't have McSorely or Barkley. Ford, Cain, & Slade are all good, but are 1-2 years away from their potential.
September 16th, 2019 at 5:00 PM ^
I'm sure Penn State fans were saying similar things before coming into the Big House last year, seeing as they blew UM out at home the year prior. Last year means nothing and UM has obv struggled against good teams on the road under Harbaugh.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:36 AM ^
This game is a total wild card for me. I can see us getting blown out, I can see s close game, and I can see us blowing them out. I have no idea.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:39 AM ^
Same.
OSU broke me last year. I really thought we were going to win.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:57 AM ^
I’m still not over that game, or 2017
September 16th, 2019 at 12:09 PM ^
That's nothing...I'm still mad about Lloyd punting in 2005.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:13 PM ^
Exactly! You can't give the ball back to Troy Smith....you know he's going to score.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:52 PM ^
To be honest , that 2005 loss to OSU at home was the most painful loss to OSU for me other than 2016, and that’s saying a lot due to all the fucking times we lose to those assholes
September 16th, 2019 at 1:15 PM ^
The 2016 OSU game still haunts me in my dreams. Seriously the worst pain I've ever felt in my UM fandom.
Fuck John O'Neil
September 16th, 2019 at 1:25 PM ^
2006 for me. That was one of the best played football games I had ever seen, before or since, and Bo had just died. We should have won it for him.
In fact, I think we would have escaped the curse of Bo's death if we had won that game.
September 16th, 2019 at 1:40 PM ^
Most heartbreaking, but 2005 and 2016 were more upsetting to me. 2013 was also very sad.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:41 PM ^
That was the most devastating sporting event for me to date. I purchased all of which was the revenge tour and was let down immensely. If we lose to Wisconsin next weekend, this season is a bust. It'll never take hold and the team will have various random highlights with a whopping 5 losses on the season. God I hope I'm wrong.
September 16th, 2019 at 1:52 PM ^
Not to be too unimaginative, but what possibilities exist other than a one-sided game for either team, or a close game?
September 16th, 2019 at 11:38 AM ^
They also picked Michigan to beat OSU last year, so...
September 16th, 2019 at 11:38 AM ^
Josh Ross needs to have the game of his life and Donovan Jeter needs to live up to the hype. I'm confident in our secondary to stop the passing game, but we NEED to stop Taylor. Maybe even stack with Uche
September 16th, 2019 at 11:38 AM ^
Keyword: "Were"
Also, I thought this was Connelly and all the other number guys who don't understand the different between blowing out two tomato cans and beating two bowls teams, one of which had the second longest winning streak in the nation.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:11 PM ^
Good teams blow out bad teams, that's what happens. So we've had several downfield passes that were "this close" to being completed, whether a WR didn't quite pull it in or Patterson just missed the throw by a yard or two. Really good teams have QBs who hit those more consistently, or WRs that pull them down.
Two things on this: 1) Army isn't viewed by analytical models as a good team, because they don't have explosive plays (which are a big part of the math for most teams), and they go for it consistently on 4th down. On the latter I think most of the models have 4th down conversion as random, where for Army it's pretty consistently successful.
Now Patterson has been hampered by an injury, so he can improve his accuracy a touch and the models won't have had that accounted for. And Michigan can add an NFL WR like DPJ who may make some of those grabs, and they won't have that fully reflected either. So there are reasons Michigan could still be very good, despite the statistical models not being huge fans.
SP+ has Michigan with the #1 defense. And... the #74 Offense. I don't believe the latter will hold through the year, they should be much better than that.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:21 PM ^
I am a bluiever. No one picked Wiscy for anything. We’ve had a couple of stir-the-slag-out-of-the-crucible games.
Believe. We’ve had to harden our hearts and mettle with Army, we know the tools are there.
Wiscy has won big, over two nothings = overconfidence.
Close game, good guys prevail 17- 12.
Go Blue
September 16th, 2019 at 12:39 PM ^
I agree with the mettle part. Analytics can't count this (unless it's inherent in the numbers), but I put some stock into that. At least for the Defense. Michigan was tested heavily by a bonebreaking Army offense and came up very well - they took a lot of confidence from that. Wiscy is a team that wants to run on you and wear you down, and Michigan just faced a team that was perfect for prepping for that aspect of football. Chinstraps have been buckled for the Wolverines. Have they for Wisconsin?
I believe in analytics and star ratings because I think it would be foolish not to. But people can't overlook that football is a game of collision and toughness. I think Michigan's defense comes out unafraid of the physical aspect of playing Wisconsin - they gained a lot of confidence for that with their effort against Army.
September 16th, 2019 at 5:35 PM ^
True that!
September 16th, 2019 at 11:40 AM ^
This game could go either way. Also, Don Brown has had success vs their offense since he's been here(2-1). Take away Taylor, and make Coan beat them. Defense is still a top notch unit.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:42 AM ^
I expected to watch this and see some bias against Michigan, but honestly they did a good job of breaking down the stats and ignoring outliers against Army. I can see where they're coming from with their prediction. That being said, if Michigan gets on the same page on offense, that changes the entire game and we should have enough to win. I expect this game to come down to a less than 1 touchdown victory with either side with the victor coming up with a big defensive stop late in the 4th.
September 16th, 2019 at 11:43 AM ^
Seeing as how Harbaugh hasn't really been competitive on the road against ranked teams (his only win at M is last year's MSU game and the only close loss was the JT was short game), it makes total sense to pick Wisconsin.
Harbaugh's record on the road in general, even going back to Stanford, is pretty awful.
September 16th, 2019 at 12:20 PM ^
I will be rooting for Michigan to win, a win which would as you point out help put this "Harbaugh hasn't really been competitive on the road against ranked teams" mentality to rest.