CC: One reason to keep Jim Harbaugh???
We have read tons of posts over the last few weeks about firing Jim Harbaugh. Within these posts are hundreds of views on hiring Matt Campbell... seemingly the only plausible coach available right now.
I want to highlight a solid comparison reason to keep Jim Harbaugh that I have not seen heavily discussed, especially if Matt Campbell is our only other option.
Brian Kelly's first 7 years at Notre Dame was almost identical to Harbaugh's first 6 years at Michigan.
- Brian Kelly 59-31 (.656)
- Jim Harbaugh 49-22 (.690)
Brian Kelly went 4-8 in that 7th year. Notre Dame decided to stick with him... his record since then... 43-8 (.843).
We have been average for every bit as long as Notre Dame was prior to Kelly. Considering our current coaching choices, Harbaugh is the right answer and I think we should stick with him. That is if he still wants to be our coach!
Can we talk about this and any other compelling reasons to stand behind Jim Harbaugh instead of sending him packing?
January 5th, 2021 at 5:03 PM ^
2017 was good?
January 5th, 2021 at 6:56 PM ^
8-5, I guess it depends on how you define good. Definitely not very good - and disappointing for Michigan when you have one of the top 5 in coaching salaries. Bad? I think that is debatable, but given expectations, I can respect calling that season bad.
January 5th, 2021 at 4:18 PM ^
Not for nothing, though it's second hand, I've heard from a player that the issues right now are more the OC/DC and that JH is still great.
I'm by no means an insider - not even close - so I'll defer to actual insiders, but I trust the source.
January 5th, 2021 at 4:34 PM ^
He leads the program. This is his job. He built this. These are his assistant/coordinator hires. These are his recruits. If he can't get his staff and his team to do a good job then, no, Harbaugh is not "still great."
January 5th, 2021 at 4:42 PM ^
Well, he did fire the D coordinator in Don Brown, and rumors are swirling of a shake up with the O coordinator as well with a Jim Moorhead hiring.
January 5th, 2021 at 4:49 PM ^
How long does a CEO keep a CFO or COO before realizing the fit isn't right? Results are (typically) faster to see on a football field, and it still takes time to recognize things aren't working and make the change. And that doesn't mean the rest of the organization, whatever it may be, isn't still willing to follow the CEO anywhere.
There's also the recognition that you made a bad choice - I think JH knew that about DB after last year's 0$u debacle - that can be tough to acknowledge.
I'm not advocating one way or the other, but I understand how JH the CEO got to this point, and he's having to reconcile all his staff decisions since letting Fisch go, IMO.
And if the players didn't really believe in him, there's no way this year's signing class sticks to the degree it did. Again, just IMO.
January 5th, 2021 at 5:08 PM ^
In Brown’s case, he may have been the right hire in 2015 but isn’t now. Things change.
January 5th, 2021 at 8:10 PM ^
So if the problem is with the OC or DC, that is not on Harbaugh??
He is the one who hired them. If they have problems, it's Harbaugh who created the problem.
AND if the problem are with OC / DC, why was the DC here for multiple years and why is the OC back?
January 5th, 2021 at 4:18 PM ^
The balls he had to tell the class of 2021 his #1 priority was to stay at Michigan. That's more balls than he's shown in a while, so maybe ballsy Jim is back?
January 5th, 2021 at 4:37 PM ^
UM could very well be his #1 priority. All the NFL tweets and stories all "sources said" and crap like that. It's speculation.
January 5th, 2021 at 4:42 PM ^
Right that is why he still isn't signed
January 5th, 2021 at 4:49 PM ^
I am led to understand that there is an agreement in principle but a few details had to be worked out. I'm not sure if it will be formalized with a signature yet but to suggest he isn't signed is absent of the issue they are working through. It isn't done but basically it is. He can still leave though.
January 5th, 2021 at 5:09 PM ^
Nope, JUB said he is 20% going to the NFL so that means JH only cares about Michigan 73%. I think I did that math right. Personally, I hope the 27% that doesn't care is the medicated JH and the 73% we get is the JH that tried to drown his brother and took off his shirt at a satellite camp, but who knows.
January 5th, 2021 at 4:46 PM ^
If his number one clear priority was to stay at UM he would have signed the extension already. I mean there is only two things that could be holding this up, one is he doesn't like the terms which quite honestly if he doesn't like a paycut portion means he has a overinflated idea of what he is worth right now or part of him wants to take an NFL offer. There are no other possibilities.
January 5th, 2021 at 4:20 PM ^
This will go over well. While not recent, even Brian and the guys have made this comparison on the podcast before. Not new at all. If I remember, their conclusion was that ND team lost a ton of close games that year and was generally competitive. Michigan 2020...not so much.
January 5th, 2021 at 4:36 PM ^
It's as if all those "FIRE HARBAUGH" threads this fall never happened.
January 5th, 2021 at 4:40 PM ^
I do not listen to the podcasts but I do see where they lost some close games that year. My counter argument to that is that Notre Dame lost to:
- USC by 18,
- 7-6 NCST
- 4-8 Duke,
- 3-9 Mich State
- 5-7 Texas
So while most of the losses were fairly close... they were losses to terrible teams. I still feel like that Notre Dame season is very similar to our 2020.
January 5th, 2021 at 6:24 PM ^
Did that Notre Dame down year have two new cornerbacks, a new quarterback, a new offensive line, a new defensive line -- and then go on to lose the top 2 offensive linemen to injury, the top 2 defensive linemen to injury, and the top linebacker to injury, and finally lose the newly picked starting QB to injury part way into his first starting game? Did they have one of the youngest, least-experienced teams in the P5 yet have drastically less practice and fewer early games than typical?
People who argue that Notre Dame did better in its bad year than Michigan in its bad year are not looking at that part.
Also, just in general, 2020 is a weird year that would not be considered predictive by folks who know probability and statistics.
January 5th, 2021 at 7:50 PM ^
Throw out 2020 if that is such a sticking point for the pro-Harbaugh crowd.
Let's dive into 2019, 2018, & 2017.
2019: 9-4, 6-3, Final rank 18th
- Lost @ #13 Wisconsin 35 -14 (Final Rank: #11)
- Beat #10 Iowa 10 - 3 (#15)
- Lost @ #7 PSU 28-21 (at one point down 21-0) (#9)
- Beat #8 ND 45-12 (#12)
- Lost #2 OSU 56-27 (#3)
- Lost #9 Alabama 35-16 (#8)
Summary: Had a big win against MSU. was 2-4 against ranked teams. 3 of those 4 losses were not even close, and it took an amazing comeback to turn the 4th loss into a close game. OSU was especially embarrassing because Don Brown ran his mouth about how focused he was because of what had happened the previous year and did not back it up.
2018: 10-3, 8-1, Final rank 14th
- Lost @ #12 ND 24-17 (Final Rank: #5)
- Beat #15 Wisconsin 38-13 (NR)
- Beat @ #24 MSU 21-7 (NR)
- Beat #14 PSU 42-7 (#17)
- Lost @ #10 OSU 62-39 (#3)
- Lost #10 Florida 41-15 (#7)
Summary: Finished 3-3 vs ranked teams. Two of the wins came against teams which fell out of the rankings by the end of the season so the record against final ranked teams was 1-3. 2 of the 3 losses were not even close. The OSU game was especially embarrassing as Michigan was somehow favored to win and we shall neve speak of the crossing route game again.
2017: 8-5, 5-4, Final Rank NR
- Beat #17 Florida 33-17 (Final Rank: NR)
- Lost @ #2 PSU 42-13 (#8)
- Lost @ #5 Wisconsin 24-10 (#7)
- Lost #8 OSU 31-20 (#5)
- Lost NR South Carolina 26-19 (NR)
Summary: Finished 1-3 vs. ranked teams. The one win came against a Florida team which finished the year 4-7 so final record against ranked teams was 0-3. The PSU game was especially embarrassing as this was the Barkley runs and catches wild game where Don Brown looked completely lost on how to respond to a great talent on the field. The other losses were not very close except for the OSU game being closer than the final score.
Total summary: three years of results. Those were years 3,4,& 5 of his tenure. It's not like you could chalk it up to transition pains. His record against teams which finished the season ranked was 3-10. The majority of those losses were not even close, multiple could only be described as embarrassing. That is not a healthy program. That is not a positive trajectory. 2015 & 2016 are getting pretty far in the rearview mirror at this point.
I don't expect to change the pro-Harbaugh crowd at this point, but please at least be realistic in what you are arguing for. Harbaugh has not brought this team back to the Bo, Mo, First half of LLoyd standard. He has continued the Second half of Lloyd, RichRod, & Hoke standard with a little more window dressing against the mediocre teams on the schedule.
January 6th, 2021 at 2:39 AM ^
What happened to 2015 and 2016?
January 5th, 2021 at 4:21 PM ^
Swap Notre Dame's schedule for Michigan's during that time and I think the winning percentage is different.
A main difference is that ND's main rival, USC, is in a historic down cycle. Michigan's main rival, Ohio State, is at a historic peak.
Notre Dame other big rivals? Navy and Boston College. Gone are the days where Notre Dame played the Hurricanes or other marquee games; such is the nature of today's college game. Not being in a conference has its scheduling perks.
It is also telling that Michigan has blown out Notre Dame (at least at home) during Kelly's good stretch.
January 5th, 2021 at 4:41 PM ^
Their schedule is even easier than that. 5 rotating ACC games (which is right now a conference of 1), 2 service academies, USC and Stanford (both down), and some combination of directional Florida school, B1G, MAC, some fries...etc.
Partly not their fault given the years in advance the schedule is made, but they're never giving up the mid-October at home / Thanksgiving away alternating games with the CA schools. IMO, their cake schedule comes down to the 5-game package they committed to with the horrible ACC to keep N(D)BC $$$ flowing.
What's lost in those ACC games are the home & homes with M, Oklahoma, PSU, LSU, o$u, etc. They never historically shied away from the tough schedule (some of their 80s and 90s schedules were ridiculous) but $$$ talks...and funds everything else.
January 6th, 2021 at 2:36 AM ^
Leatherstocking touches on a few good points. Also, if you look back at ND's schedules, they're generally pretty weak, and when they played a team with a pulse (ranked teams), they generally lost those games.
January 5th, 2021 at 4:22 PM ^
It's a gamble either way. Nobody has any clue what to expect. However, this is why fans do not make these decisions.
Something has clearly changed in Harbaugh. Warde's job is to have a heart to heart with him and find out why he has changed (unless he already knows) and determine whether Harbaugh can - and will - be able to change for the better going forward. Is he burned our from the pressure of resurrecting his Alma mater? Or simply tired of coaching college kids who transfer the moment they feel like the staff is being too hard on them (at least from JH perspective this is probably what he would be thinking). OR did he simply get too far from his comfort zone in his play calling and schemes, and he's ready to make the right adjustments to succeed?
I believe it is entirely possible that Harbaugh has felt like leaving all year, and possibly he started feeling it after the 62-39 game in Columbus. But it's a fly on the wall thing that none of us will likely never know
January 5th, 2021 at 4:48 PM ^
It's so hard to read the situation, let alone know what Harbaugh is thinking. I've felt both that Harbaugh is gone (not signing anything by early signing day, no indication he was about to sign an extension) and that he's coming back (why would a current coach fire his DC if he knew he was likely leaving?)
I just don't know what's going on, man. I wish we had any indication whatsoever. One of the most frustrating things with the program is the lack of any insightful knowledge.
So I'm whatever at this point. Keep him, fine. Get rid of him, fine. My enthusiasm is gone. College football is a farce nowadays, it's a bunch of games that don't matter because we know the playoffs will wind up as Bama, Clemson, OSU, and rando #4 that more-often-than-not is OU or Notre Dame.
(Notre dame had its best ever postseason performance against Bama last week and the game was over in the 1st quarter. Sure, it was close-ish for awhile where ND could have theoretically gotten back in it, but didn't you just know that would never happen? It makes the whole sport a farce to watch as a fan. I'm supposed to get excited about "underdog" OSU beating Clemson? Fuck that.)
January 5th, 2021 at 4:24 PM ^
It's a good try. But the Harbaugh Haters and the Change Now-ers don't want debate or reason. They want coaching blood. They wanted the same thing under Carr. They are perennial grass is always greener and if we get Campbell and he goes 0-3 vs. OSU, which is likely in a CC scenario especially as MC get's settled, they'll feel cheated 'Something has changed since his ISU days...', the podcasts will be dour and BPONEd again, and they'll want some other new guy.
January 5th, 2021 at 4:34 PM ^
Lloyd Carr didn’t lose to the worst MSU team this Century. Lloyd Carr didn’t go 2-4/4-8 in a season. Lloyd Carr didn’t lose to OSU by four scores three separate occasions. Lloyd Carr didn’t run off players who would’ve started for Michigan and fill up important roster gaps.
The grass is greener at Iowa State right now. they would 50-piece us. We aren’t a good football team right now. His best seasons were with Hokes recruits.
January 5th, 2021 at 4:37 PM ^
I agree with your overall point but Lloyd Carr absolutely needed to retire. I swear I remember reading somewhere that he'd wanted to retire afterthe 2004 season, but when he realized what a special group the Hart/Henne/Long trio was he decided to see it through their careers.
We shouldn't forget how miserable his offenses were. This was the staff that would trot out their backup WRs every time they were going to run the ball. In fact I'm pretty sure Carl Tabb was specifically recruited as a run blocking receiver.
January 5th, 2021 at 4:43 PM ^
Lloyd needed to retire, no doubt. My overall point is that Michigan fans aren't overreacting, as Harbaugh's low points are steeper than Lloyd's. Yes App state was awful, but he also beat MSU six straight seasons, won a national championship, and got us to the rose bowl numerous times.
January 5th, 2021 at 4:39 PM ^
Lloyd's team got ran by a D1AA team, at home.
January 5th, 2021 at 4:41 PM ^
I didn't say he was without faults or underachieved. I am saying that it is unfair to compare the fan's reaction to Harbaugh tenure to Lloyd's.
January 5th, 2021 at 5:24 PM ^
You just listed out a bunch of Harbaugh's worst moments and said they were all worse than Lloyd's worst. Then someone brings up Lloyd's worst loss (which is worse than any Harbaugh loss) and brush it off as if its not a big deal. It totally contradicts what you just said. The more reasonable response would be Lloyd had some terrible moments but he likely got a pass because of his previous accomplishments outshine Harbaugh's accomplishments.
January 5th, 2021 at 5:38 PM ^
I mean yes Carr had some goodwill built up because of actual wins over OSU, Big Ten titles, dominating MSU throughout his tenure and a NC . I'm not sure what part of that doesn't make sense to the Harbaugh defenders. And why are you assuming Matt Campbell would be held to a different standard? Most of us would hold him to the exact same standard as RR, Hoke and now Harbaugh were. Beat MSU regularly, do a little better than .500 against PSU and Wisky and manage to find a way to beat OSU here and there.
January 5th, 2021 at 5:43 PM ^
Yes, that is what I have been saying. Harbaugh's worst moments may not be App State level, but his highest moments are not Lloyds.
Let's say it like this. We go out on the town every week to get girls numbers, and in each of the weeks, I get a number each week from an average looking girl (4 numbers). You on the other hand, strike out on two of the weeks (boo), BUT the two numbers you get, are Victoria Secret numbers, you had the better record my friend.
Maybe i'm just horny.
January 5th, 2021 at 4:54 PM ^
I think Lloyd was a great coach. But aside from this year, which the H haters hang their hat on, Harbaugh isn't far off vs. greater competition.
Lloyd lost to App State; a worse loss than to MSU.
Harbaugh turned us around vs. MSU when MSU was on the end of a historic high.
We don't know that Harbaugh ran off anyone; nor how Lloyd would work in the transfer portal era.
Lloyd was the last coach with real success against OSU... but that dried up with Tressel's arrival and OSU has only gotten better since. And part of the reason the gap is wider is because we went with Lightnin' Boy (OH MODERN OFFENSE BE STILL MY BEATING HEART!) RR who quickly tanked out defense.
Harbaugh isn't perfect. Neither was Lloyd. But this season aside (and this season is WAAAY out of the normal) it isn't a reason to denigrate the guy's tenure and make it sound like he was just a failure.
We were 46-41 in the 7 years prior to his arrival. We were 47-18 in the five years after that.
Maybe he's lost it. And maybe he can't turn it around. But I don't take this year as evidence. I see the chance that Campbell can come in and turn things around as slim; unless we have other structural changes (make use of NIL and the transfer portal), Campbell both improves (no more losses to Iowa) and we have a little luck too. Without all that we'll be right back where we are now after a few years of coaching upheaval.
January 5th, 2021 at 5:58 PM ^
Completely irrelevant comparisons:
Mich/Harbaugh vs ND/Kelly
Mich/Harbaugh vs Clemson/Dabo
Mich/Harbaugh vs Mich/Carr
Etc.
Etc.
Etc.
Useful comparison:
Mich/Harbaugh/$8 million vs Mich/New Guy/$4 million
It is not unreasonable to question the performance of assistant coaches as well, but if JH is extended a new contract for more than $2.5 million, the AD has lost his mind. He cannot reward actual weak performance even though he can be forgiven for paying big bucks in the past when the expected results were very high.
($2.5 million is a spitball. Insert your own spitball.)
January 5th, 2021 at 6:36 PM ^
Yours is a useless comparison.
What matters is winning and media exposure, not whether or not someone's salary seems "worth it" to you. Also, +/-$4M is a rounding error on Michigan's $190M/year football revenue.
January 5th, 2021 at 6:50 PM ^
My comparison is admittedly not the whole story. But regardless of the revenue, the athletic department operates on a budget. $4 million down the drain for a underperforming coach is a not a good message to the rest of the coaches, administrators, athletes. That's $4 million that could do untold good in some other program or in other hands in the football program. Continuing to pay this coach at the current level is a vulgar folly.
January 6th, 2021 at 3:21 AM ^
It's not an extra $4M that men's water polo is going to get. It's 2% of a budget.
Also, head coaches at major programs cost a lot. Everyone knows that.
Here, Michigan has a choice. It can fire Harbaugh and pay his severance and get a new coach, or it can negotiate a new contract with Harbaugh. It would cost Michigan more money to get rid of Harbaugh and hire a new guy than to keep Harbaugh. You still do that if you really think you can get a substantially better coach. If you don't think that, you don't do it.
Here's win% data from 2015-2019:
Swinney (Clemson): 67-4 = 94%
Saban (Alabama): 65-6 = 92%
Meyer (OSU): 45-6 = 88%
Riley (Oklahoma): 35-5 = 88%
Smart (Georgia): 43-11 = 80%
Mullen (Florida): 20-5 = 80%
Orgeron (LSU): 37-9 = 80%
Chryst (Wisconsin): 52-14 = 79%
Franklin (PSU): 48-17 = 74%
Harbaugh (Michigan): 47-17 = 73%
Kelly (Notre Dame): 46-17 = 73%
Petersen (Washington): 46-20 = 70%
Fisher (TA&M): 16-9 = 64%
Guess which of those guys other than Harbaugh is available for Michigan to get?
Not a single one of them.
If Michigan wants a different coach, it will be taking a gamble on someone. And for every school that wins the gamble, there are a bunch -- including ones with lots of money and football history, such as Texas, Florida State, Miami, Nebraska, and USC -- that end up on the losing side of it.
January 5th, 2021 at 7:13 PM ^
Where do you get the idea that we’ll pay our next coach only $4 million? He’ll most likely earn a similar salary to Harbaugh.
January 5th, 2021 at 7:38 PM ^
I still wonder how Moeller would have been if not for his meltdown at Excalibur. Any thoughts. I liked his offenses.
January 6th, 2021 at 9:31 AM ^
I respected Moeller as coach. His first two years were great. He was a well balanced guy on the field; and I think he really did a good job at the teams where I saw him (UM; Lions interim). I don't know if he would have had Carr's run past '97, but maybe. And maybe would have been better. Who knows.
January 6th, 2021 at 1:55 AM ^
“Lloyd Carr didn’t run off players who would’ve started for Michigan and fill up important roster gaps.”
Unless you believe that he waited until his final year was complete and counseled Ryan Mallett that he would be better utilized elsewhere rather than in RichRod’s offense.
January 5th, 2021 at 4:34 PM ^
Most people here defended Harbaugh up unto this season, and were told they are "okay with mediocrity" and basically called stupid by the anti-Harbaugh crowd.
Your description, which is very American with its severe lack of nuance, could match up with maybe 5% of the users on this blog.
January 5th, 2021 at 4:26 PM ^
This argument has popped up on Reddit numerous times and there's an easy counter-argument. Brian Kelly, in those first 7 years, had an undefeated season and a national title game appearance. The closest Jim got was 2016 with 2 losses. That 4-8 season, Notre Dame lost all but 1 of those games by less than 1 score. They never really got blown out, they were just super unlucky and lost of a lot coin flip games. Harbaugh the last few years has been blown out numerous times now. Brian Kelly hit the jackpot in terms of assistants when he cleaned house. Most of those guys are now HC's elsewhere. The odds of Jim hitting the jackpot across the board like that are slim to none. Brian Kelly has an easier schedule every year due to their "independence", therefore turn around is easier. There's really no reason to assume Harbaugh could pull off a similar miracle.
January 5th, 2021 at 4:26 PM ^
Lol. There is no reason to keep Harbaugh. You can compare him to Kelly or whoever else you want, but he has failed here.
0-5 against OSU
3-3 against a down MSU
Losing record against Wiscy
Lost 3 out of the last 4 against PSU
So ya there is no compelling reason to keep him. Lol what a bad OP.
January 5th, 2021 at 4:45 PM ^
Oh Bullshit.
0-5 vs. OSU - given. They are at an all time high.
3-3 vs. MSU.. but 2-1 with two commanding wins in the last two years. And MSU was hardly 'down' in '15 or '16.
Losing record against Wisci. Sure. 2-3, including a shitty COVID year where everthing fell apart. But including 2 wins over ranked Wisci. So prior to the wheels coming off this year we were 2-2 vs. Wisci. Wisci isn't a bad team.
I count 3 -3 with PSU.
'15 MSU L
PSU W
No Wisci
'16 MSU W
PSU W
Wisci W
'17 MSU L
PSU L
Wisci L
'18 MSU W
PSU W
Wisci W
'19 MSU W
PSU L
Wisci L
Heres the thing; Nuance counts. How were we the prior 7 years against *anyone*?
Not good. Not good at all Bob.
He took a team that had a ton of losing seasons and turned it around to having winning seasons and to be competitive against ranked opponents. Is it where we want? No. But to act like his tenure is a failure is just revisionist crap.
January 5th, 2021 at 4:46 PM ^
I do not understand these takes that act like these numbers occurred in a vacuum, let's just take a look at the eight years before Harbaugh arrived shall we?
Wisconsin from '07-'14: 1-3 (thanks B1G for these divisions by the way)
OSU: 1-7
MSU: 2-6
PSU: 2-4
I'm fine with critiques of how there have been issues w/ recruitment of certain positions, roster management, certainly time management in-game, etc. But the people who continue to flat out ignore the barren wasteland that Harbaugh walked into here and what he accomplished immediately and honestly over his entire time here are doing a great disservice to the man and to themselves in thinking that just anyone can succeed here. That most assuredly is NOT the case and has been proven out over multiple coaching regimes in front of our very eyes. Has Harbaugh gotten Michigan to the mountain top yet? No he has not. But he has come incredibly close twice in his tenure here (JT was short) and built a program that is in a far better position than it was prior to his arrival. Our chief rival is at their historical zenith and people want to pretend that throwing everything away and starting over somehow won't increase that gap? I don't get it. This year was a total wash, period, for a myriad of reasons we need not review again here. I happen to think our best way forward is to continue to recruit at the level that Harbaugh at the helm allows, retool on defense, and push forward, it's fair to disagree but I'm also tired of the approach that posts these numbers out of context like its some aberration when compared to the last decade plus of Michigan football.
January 5th, 2021 at 4:28 PM ^
We could do these comparisons all day til we're blue in the face. The reason for the malaise in the fanbase is ultimately the success of OSU, which we won't be able to overcome without some combo of improved recruiting/player development.
Could Harbaugh get us there? Sure, though something will have to change on staff if it will, and defensive line recruiting has to be at Hoke levels or better. Could Matt Campbell get us there? Possibly. Though OSU is better than Oklahoma, and he'll have to up his recruiting from what he's gotten at ISU. Same disclaimers with Fickell, though it might be even tougher given OSU won't let him get rolling with Ohio recruiting if he wears the block M.
There's no easy fix, which unfortunately only adds to the malaise lol.
January 5th, 2021 at 5:16 PM ^
Losing to OSU every years sucks but I would gladly take a Fiesta Bowl win type season right now.