CC: Les Miles...Whispers Growing Louder?
October 3rd, 2014 at 8:31 PM ^
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October 3rd, 2014 at 8:32 PM ^
Until Herbstreit confirms, I am not going to get my hopes up.
/too soon?
October 3rd, 2014 at 8:50 PM ^
for a Herbie joke
October 3rd, 2014 at 9:29 PM ^
October 3rd, 2014 at 9:37 PM ^
Unofficial poll...if Kirk never opens his mouth on that fateful Saturday...is Les Miles our coach?
October 3rd, 2014 at 9:42 PM ^
From what I've heard, Martin wasn't going to offer him regardless, so it didn't actually matter other than to get our hopes up (and then down).
October 4th, 2014 at 2:17 AM ^
If Les was actually offered, I would say yes, Herbstreit screwed it up. That was pretty much putting a gun to the head of a coach about to lead his team into a conference championship game with a chance to play for the National Championship: you're either staying or you're going, right now. But, as has also been said, it sounds like Martin never really made the offer and just had a conversation to appease the pro-Les faction.
For what it's worth, I think Herbstreit was just being, unfortunately, a 21st Century journalist - more important to be first than to be right - as opposed to trying to actively screw Michigan.
But I certainly may be wrong, about both the offer and Herbie's motives. If so...ugh. To think where Michigan is now. 2008 is probably still rough (I think Mallett was out regardless), but probably not 3-9 as no one's trying to jam Threet/Cone/Sheridan into the zone-read. Bowl streak still intact. I think the program stabilizes pretty quickly after the transition year. Michigan is competitive against Ohio State again (with some actual victories as opposed to moral, and not just against Luke Fickell), Miles-Meyer is the new Ten-Year War. Mark Dantonio is a great coach in his own right and was building a contender regardless, but he doesn't get three years of virtually unopposed recruiting in-state to bolster that, and as for 5-2 (likely soon to be 6-2) against Michigan, sorry but just no.
Not saying Michigan has guaranteed won a National Championship over this time or that they're a shoo-in for the playoffs this year, but I'd imagine they're a consistent ten-win program, always at least in the conversation, most recent conference championship isn't 2004, and in no way do they resemble the shit-show before us today.
October 3rd, 2014 at 9:52 PM ^
Here is Les' record and total offense / total defense from 2005 forward; I've done this similar for every coach in the diaries area I've looked at. Anyone who turns down this resume is foolish. The first 2 years you can say were Saban's players but by year 3 its on that own coach's merits. Miles has put out sick defenses almost every year - he just struggles with finding a QB. I think he has had one prime time QB his whole time down there; if he had another 1-2 he might have 2 more NCs to his name.
If he is here 5 years, you hope he has his own David Shaw installed by the time he exits.
Guy is well known nationally (an easy sell in recruits houses) and yes recruiting in the south is different then the north of course - with the "cutting" and oversigning. But recruiting has not been an issue up here. Either we are recruiting all the kids Rivals 250 has wrong or they are not being developed. As long as he brought his own DC up here, our defense would be sterling. Those rankings are in the freaking SEC West. A "12th" rated defense in the SEC west would be akin to "death doom" defense in the Big 10. Again I will allow he wont get all those calibar of players up here because a lot of kids from LA, MS, TX, FL are not coming north but guy (and his DC) can coach defense.
| W/L | Tot Off | Tot Def | |
| 2004 | 9-3 | 38 | 3 |
| 2005 | 11-2 | 60 | 3 |
| 2006 | 11-2 | 11 | 3 |
| 2007 | 12-2 | 26 | 3 |
| 2008 | 8-5 | 55 | 32 |
| 2009 | 9-4 | 112 | 26 |
| 2010 | 11-2 | 86 | 12 |
| 2011 | 13-1 | 86 | 2 |
| 2012 | 10-3 | 85 | 8 |
| 2013 | 10-3 | 35 | 15 |
October 3rd, 2014 at 9:53 PM ^
Not that i wasn't already but i'm sold!
October 3rd, 2014 at 10:12 PM ^
It's interesting that his defenses have been so much better than his offenses despite the fact that he's an offensive coach (OL - Colorado, Michigan, OC - Oklahoma State, and TE - Dallas Cowboys).
alum96, I've really enjoyed your posts, and I'd be curious whether you've noticed any patterns there about offensive coaches fielding relatively better offenses than defenses and defensive coaches fielding relatively better defenses than offenses.
October 3rd, 2014 at 10:29 PM ^
Just randomly at the guys I follow
Sumlin was an OC who turns in great offenses and bad defenses - so that fits the bill
Graham is the opposite of Sumlin, he was brought up on the defensive side of the ball but identifies great OC talent - Malzahn, Chad Morris (both at Tulsa) and a guy now at ASU named Norvell. He puts up the same offenses as Sumlin but is a defensive guy
Gundy came up through the offensive side of the ball and has great offenses and like Sumlin terrible defenses
Charlie Strong came up on the defensive side and had very good defenses at Louisville until he landed a big recruit at QB - but he had statistically the #1 defense his last year at Louisville
Dantonio is a defense guy who ironically had much better offenses early at MSU, 2007-2009 MSU was winning more via offense than defense, until he got his type of athletes in and could develop them. Since 2011 they have been in beast mode on defense.
James Frankin was an offensive guy who won at Vanderbilt with defense not offense
Dan Mullen was an offensive guy who has not had 1 side of the ball be elite at Miss State
So no there is no pattern.
Specific to Les on offense - he never has had a stud QB other than JaMarcus Russell who was a Saban recruit who Miles benefited from in 05/06. Guys like Jarret Lee and Jordan Jefferson are the next tier of guy he has had. They haven't had great RBs either in his time. Not like Bama or Georgia at least.
October 3rd, 2014 at 8:32 PM ^
While I would be happy (read: ecstatic) with Miles, I don't think we can assume that his ability to recruit in the south for a southern school will translate to Michigan.That seems like a leap.
October 3rd, 2014 at 8:39 PM ^
I agree with that. But those southern kids he's recruiting are also being recruited by the other big time programs in the South, so he's doing something right. Not every kid on their squad is from Louisiana, either.
October 3rd, 2014 at 9:13 PM ^
I think you're giving Les Miles too much credit. I'd give more credit to the the southern school's lack of educational importance (Alabama's engineering department excluded).
October 3rd, 2014 at 9:18 PM ^
Has recruiting ever really been a problem at Michigan? I don't think this is the concern.
October 3rd, 2014 at 9:21 PM ^
Rich Rod didn't recruit well, for him it was a problem.
October 3rd, 2014 at 9:23 PM ^
OK, but he's always gone for the sleepers anyway. Everyone else who's coached here has reeled in plenty of big names and Miles has done so at LSU, too.
October 4th, 2014 at 4:06 AM ^
Rich Rod "didn't recruit well? Ya think it may have been because of the so-called "Michigan Men" who were telling coaches not to send their players to MIchigan?
October 4th, 2014 at 11:48 AM ^
October 3rd, 2014 at 10:06 PM ^
No UM has not had a problem w/ recruiting
Here is UM v LSU in 2005 - 2013.
| LSU | UM | |
| 2005* | 22 | 6 |
| 2006 | 7 | 13 |
| 2007 | 4 | 12 |
| 2008* | 11 | 10 |
| 2009 | 2 | 8 |
| 2010 | 6 | 20 |
| 2011* | 6 | 21 |
| 2012 | 18 | 7 |
| 2013 | 6 | 5 |
LSU average = 9
UM average = 11
This is with 3 coaching changes, 2005 LSU class, 2008 UM class, 2011 UM class
I penalized UM even further by taking out both LSU's worst class (LSU's first in 2005) and likewise taking out UM's worst class (2011) and the new averages are
LSU = 8
UM = 10
We have ZERO excuse on recruiting. As has ND all these years. As has TN all these years. 2-3 spots means nothing.
October 3rd, 2014 at 10:39 PM ^
October 3rd, 2014 at 11:09 PM ^
For some reason LSU's is only going back 4 years on nfl.com but eyeballing it LSU has about as many in 4 years as UM has in 9.
Equivalent for UM is
October 3rd, 2014 at 11:18 PM ^
Found another site for all the LSU's since 2005. It would also be worthy to see who was drafted in rounds 1-4 (i.e. high impact players) versus rounds 5-6-7.
Since 2008, UM has had six guys picked in rounds 1-4. LSU had that five in 2014 alone.
Louisiana State |
||||||
| Year | Round | Pick | Player | Name | Team | Position |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2014 | 1 | 12 | 12 | Odell Beckham | Giants | WR |
| 2 | 19 | 51 | Ego Ferguson | Bears | DT | |
| 2 | 23 | 55 | Jeremy Hill | Bengals | RB | |
| 2 | 31 | 63 | Jarvis Landry | Dolphins | WR | |
| 3 | 28 | 92 | Trai Turner | Panthers | G | |
| 5 | 16 | 156 | Lamin Barrow | Broncos | LB | |
| 6 | 2 | 178 | Zach Mettenberger | Titans | QB | |
| 6 | 5 | 181 | Alfred Blue | Texans | RB | |
| 7 | 24 | 239 | James Wright | Bengals | WR | |
| 2013 | 1 | 6 | 6 | Barkevious Mingo | Browns | DE |
| 1 | 18 | 18 | Eric Reid | 49ers | DB | |
| 2 | 13 | 45 | Kevin Minter | Cardinals | LB | |
| 3 | 5 | 67 | Bennie Logan | Eagles | DT | |
| 3 | 7 | 69 | Tyrann Mathieu | Cardinals | DB | |
| 3 | 33 | 95 | Sam Montgomery | Texans | DE | |
| 5 | 5 | 138 | Tharold Simon | Seahawks | DB | |
| 5 | 9 | 142 | Lavar Edwards | Titans | DE | |
| 6 | 26 | 194 | Spencer Ware | Seahawks | RB | |
| 2012 | 1 | 6 | 6 | Morris Claiborne | Cowboys | DB |
| 1 | 14 | 14 | Michael Brockers | Rams | DT | |
| 2 | 31 | 63 | Rueben Randle | Giants | WR | |
| 3 | 10 | 73 | Brandon Taylor | Chargers | DB | |
| 4 | 29 | 124 | Ron Brooks | Bills | DB | |
| 2011 | 1 | 5 | 5 | Patrick Peterson | Cardinals | DB |
| 3 | 4 | 68 | Kelvin Sheppard | Bills | LB | |
| 3 | 9 | 73 | Stevan Ridley | Patriots | RB | |
| 3 | 23 | 87 | Drake Nevis | Colts | DT | |
| 3 | 28 | 92 | Joseph Barksdale | Raiders | T | |
| 7 | 2 | 205 | Lazarius Levingston | Seahawks | DE | |
| 2010 | 3 | 12 | 76 | Chad Jones | Giants | DB |
| 3 | 14 | 78 | Brandon LaFell | Panthers | WR | |
| 4 | 5 | 103 | Perry Riley | Redskins | LB | |
| 4 | 25 | 123 | Al Woods | Saints | DT | |
| 6 | 28 | 197 | Trindon Holliday | Texans | RB | |
| 6 | 31 | 200 | Charles Scott | Eagles | RB | |
| 2009 | 1 | 3 | 3 | Tyson Jackson | Chiefs | DE |
| 5 | 9 | 145 | Quinn Johnson | Packers | RB | |
| 5 | 31 | 167 | Herman Johnson | Cardinals | T | |
| 7 | 10 | 219 | Curtis Taylor | 49ers | DB | |
| 7 | 15 | 224 | Demetrius Byrd | Chargers | WR | |
| 7 | 35 | 244 | Ricky Jean Francois | 49ers | DT | |
| 2008 | 1 | 5 | 5 | Glenn Dorsey | Chiefs | DT |
| 3 | 5 | 68 | Chevis Jackson | Falcons | DB | |
| 3 | 6 | 69 | Jacob Hester | Chargers | RB | |
| 3 | 18 | 81 | Early Doucet | Cardinals | WR | |
| 4 | 21 | 120 | Craig Steltz | Bears | DB | |
| 7 | 2 | 209 | Matt Flynn | Packers | QB | |
| 7 | 25 | 232 | Keith Zinger | Falcons | TE | |
| 2007 | 1 | 1 | 1 | JaMarcus Russell | Raiders | QB |
| 1 | 6 | 6 | LaRon Landry | Redskins | DB | |
| 1 | 23 | 23 | Dwayne Bowe | Chiefs | WR | |
| 1 | 30 | 30 | Craig Davis | Chargers | WR | |
| 7 | 3 | 213 | Chase Pittman | Browns | DE | |
| 2006 | 1 | 30 | 30 | Joseph Addai | Colts | RB |
| 2 | 23 | 55 | Andrew Whitworth | Bengals | T | |
| 3 | 4 | 68 | Claude Wroten | Rams | DT | |
| 4 | 28 | 125 | Skyler Green | Cowboys | WR | |
| 5 | 1 | 134 | Kyle Williams | Bills | DT | |
| 6 | 28 | 197 | Melvin Oliver | 49ers | DE | |
| 7 | 23 | 231 | Bennie Brazell | Bengals | WR | |
| 2005 | 1 | 20 | 20 | Marcus Spears | Cowboys | DE |
| 2 | 11 | 43 | Corey Webster | Giants | DB | |
| 4 | 3 | 104 | Travis Daniels | Dolphins | DB | |
October 3rd, 2014 at 11:23 PM ^
Ok just counted since I love data
Since's Carr's departure (i.e. the Henne, Hart, Long class) in the 08 draft
UM has had 6 players picked in rounds 1-4.
LSU has had 26.
So they are converting their 9th ranked classes into a ton of high impact NFL players. We are converting our 11th ranked classes into mid tier Big 10 players.
October 4th, 2014 at 12:10 AM ^
October 4th, 2014 at 8:07 AM ^
October 3rd, 2014 at 9:03 PM ^
to recruit very well at Michigan. He won't bring in the same players, but he's won a lot of recruiting battles against a slew of big time programs. That kind of success should translate just fine here. He'll be able to sell both his record and his obvious love for Michigan if he comes here.
October 3rd, 2014 at 9:15 PM ^
If you can recruit you can recruit. A school's geographic location contributes to the success you have in a particular region, but to say his recruting won't translate is not only a leap but a quantum leap. It is just those types of contrived "weaknesses" that lead us down the wrong path.
When you are talking about a Michigan coaching candidate and you have a check list, Miles would have each box checked. Would he be successful here? Who knows. But he has already demonstrated he has all the tools and skills too succeed in a big program, has won everywhere he has been, and Michigan is his dream job. If you run a risk assessment on coaching candidates, his risk would be among the lowest.
October 3rd, 2014 at 9:24 PM ^
I'm not worried about Miles recruiting ability, but the OP said he has the ability to recruit in the south. That has far more to do with geographic location than Miles.
October 3rd, 2014 at 11:45 PM ^
And . . . here's the part where we really do mean what we have always said about about the SEC: I believe in my heart of hearts that the SEC pays players under the table and does not make them go to classes in a meaningful way.
There, I said it.
It will be a lot different recruiting to Michigan. Add in the cold weather and it's a whole different recruiting ballgame.
Don't expect any magic from Miles. He would have to switch to a midwest/northeast-centered recruiting strategy with some add-ons from other parts of the country. Don't expect all those TX, LA, and FL kids to just flock up to Ann Arbor because Les Miles is there. It's not going to happen.
October 3rd, 2014 at 10:50 PM ^
I don't buy that Miles is anywhere near risk-free. I've warmed up on him a bit, mostly because of how shitty the last seven seasons have been, but Miles has serious questions about his history and character. The SI piece on Oklahoma State was scathing, his over-signing record is ugly, and I'm sure there's a lot more stuff out there that I haven't happened to read.
If you're Michigan's AD and you honestly believe that he'd stay clean at Michigan, you can probably look the other way on that stuff from his past, but (1) you'd better be damn sure that he won't do those same things in Ann Arbor and (2) you'd better have scrutinized the guy's past so carefully that you're confident that nothing will come out now that results in a black eye for Michigan.
October 3rd, 2014 at 10:56 PM ^
His risk is among the lowest. Or we can just go with another Brady Hoke, that worked out well.
October 3rd, 2014 at 11:03 PM ^
As a matter of fact, set up an appointment with one LC, and I think you'll get all the info you'll ever need.
October 3rd, 2014 at 11:06 PM ^
I'm willing to believe that he'd toe the line here. The South is just different when it comes to this stuff - the pressure to win is insane and the schools are all basically out to destroy each other. That atmosphere lends itself to rule-bending that you don't see as much of elsewhere.
October 3rd, 2014 at 11:50 PM ^
The pressure to win at Michigan is not insane?
We're about to run our second coach in four years out of town, along with the guy that hired him.
If you do wierd, shady stuff in the SEC under pressure, you'll do it here too. We are not a pleasant coaching retirement village.
October 4th, 2014 at 12:31 AM ^
There is more pressure there. I mean, we're talking about a guy who is averaging 11 wins per season and many LSU fans want him gone.
October 4th, 2014 at 12:00 AM ^
You are right in saying the South is different in this regard. But if you think Miles is going have as much talent in Ann Arbor signing 21 players per year as he is in Baton Rouge signing 28 players per year, that's just not right. My friends in Alabama thinks it is sour grapes on my part, but I am convinced that oversigning and cutting players is a significant part of why the SEC does so well. The rules are different.
October 4th, 2014 at 12:33 AM ^
He won't have as much talent as at LSU, but it won't really matter, since the same is true for the rest of the B1G. Oversigning is basically a Southern thing, and the rest of the country doesn't really do it.
October 4th, 2014 at 12:17 AM ^
October 3rd, 2014 at 11:55 PM ^
For what it's worth, LSU has a unique and enviable advantage in recruiting. Louisiana is not a hugely populous state. However, it produces a very large number of high quality high school football players on a per capita basis. And LSU is the only truly major college program in the state. Miles is known as a good recruiter in these parts. But it is also understood that anyone coaching LSU has a good shot at producing good recruiting classes.
October 3rd, 2014 at 9:38 PM ^
Recruiting has not been an issue here. We average something like 13 over the past 6-7 years, LSU is probably 6-8. People are making it sound like we are 40th and we need a savior to get back to 12 on average.
Texas' average is 10 over that same time frame.
UM has recruited on par with Oregon the past 6-7 years. If he comes here and just does what Hoke does he will be more than fine in recruiting.
October 3rd, 2014 at 8:35 PM ^
October 3rd, 2014 at 8:37 PM ^
Did I miss something or did that article not say anything? It just speculated about why Les Miles would want to come to Michigan and cited the same reasons (reason?) as the last two times.
I don't really disagree with the article, and I agreed with that notion the last two times, that Les Miles was a possibility and might want to come to Michigan.
He didn't either time before. The first time it made a lot of sense not to since he was about to win the national championship (and he did). He didn't the second time either, but the following year he played for the national championship again, so both times he knew he was sitting on great teams.
Now he's getting older and his team (although promising for the future) isn't as dominant as either of the last two times. Maybe this is the time he decides to make the switch and finishes out his career up here. I'd be OK with that.
October 3rd, 2014 at 8:50 PM ^
October 3rd, 2014 at 9:02 PM ^
From what I understand, Les would have come here if we'd actually offered him the job - but we never actually have.
October 3rd, 2014 at 11:07 PM ^
it sounded like Les was offered the job every time and turned it down. HAHA. Anyone else notice that the Michigan logo on the article has been banned by Dave Brandon? Oh boy, Brandon's gonna be pissed !!!! WAAAAAAHHHH
Go Blue!
October 3rd, 2014 at 8:37 PM ^
October 3rd, 2014 at 8:45 PM ^
Why do people keep saying no one will take this job. Do you honestly believe Michigan is the only fan base in the country with insane fans? Do you believe the Michigan fan base is crazier than Alabama, Auburn, OSU or even LSU?
Do you just not believe Michigan will pay for the best possible coach? Do you not trust Dave Brandon to be able to bring in a good coach?
I am not trying to attack you, I am just really confused by people constantly saying Michigan cannot get a quality head coach, Michigan can get as good a coach as they are willing to pay for. Most of these guys are egotistical as heck and believe they can turn around any program, they will not be scared off by some complaining fans on a message board.
October 3rd, 2014 at 8:57 PM ^
I agree with you on this. We are still a top 10 Job and being in the B10 should be a positive as the path to a NC should be easier. I don't think Miles is coming though. He is too old to start over IMHO.
October 3rd, 2014 at 8:58 PM ^