Breakdown of final play vs. OSU, Root for Cinci to knock MSU out, What's your starting lineup sans Livers?
I just decided to roll all 3 of these topics into one post. Each one on its own didn't seem particularly important to post, although Sundays are generally quiet here. Anyway,
1. Ant Wright has a great breakdown of what went wrong on the final play. https://twitter.com/itsAntWright/status/1370907880241602560 No, Juwan didn't just tell Smith to dribble around and jack up a 3. The plan was for Brooks to screen for Hunter and then Hunter screens for Smith. Hunter started too early so Brooks couldn't screen for him, so the play broke down. Also, if you watch the highlights, you can see Juwan with his hand up telling Eli to wait as the clock winds down, so clearly he's the one to initiate the play.
2. There have been a couple bid thieves this year. Cincinnati has a chance to be another one as they play Houston at 3:15 ET. I don't know if this would knock MSU out of the tourney, but it at least seems like a possibility. And having DeJulius be one of the guys to do it would make it extra sweet.
3. What should our starting lineup be assuming Livers is out? UMHoops made the case that Chaundee should be in the starting lineup instead of Johns. Personally, I really don't know. I can see the argument for both.
https://umhoops.com/2021/03/13/btt-2021-michigan-vs-ohio-state-recap/ Here's the UMHoops article. I should mention I don't have a subscription, so I can't give a summary of his argument.
Chaundee is a starting 5 level player on any team in the country. I’d love to see him out there.
March 14th, 2021 at 10:59 AM ^
Chaundee can sub for the 2, 3 and 4.
Brandon can sub in for the 4 or 5.
Because of the versatility, that is why Chaundee is better value as a 6th man.
March 14th, 2021 at 11:16 AM ^
Agree, Johns starting for Livers allows them to keep the same rotations, except Johns takes Livers place and Williams takes Johns’ place. Next man up.
I like Chaundee coming off the bench. He'll get starters minutes so I don't think it's that big a deal. He did struggle on offense and defense yesterday. Hope he (and Mike and Franz) bounce back.
Msu is in regardless, but they could get pushed to the first four, and them losing would make for hilarious banter by arguing that msu didn't make the "real" dance
March 14th, 2021 at 11:50 AM ^
Making the First Four is definitely still making the tournament. If not, then Michigan can't claim to have made the tournament in 2016.
Pretty sure MSU fans just want to keep the streak alive and many think they'll get knocked out early. Both are very likely to occur.
March 14th, 2021 at 12:01 PM ^
Michigan won their "first four" game so they claim to be in the tournament no matter what.
March 14th, 2021 at 12:31 PM ^
Fair point. Nonetheless, even teams that lost in First Four unequivocally made the tournament
If there a better example of a high major team that has won a couple good games but has definitively proven that they don’t deserve a shot to play for the title, it’s MSU 2021.
If you’re a decent team from the P5, you should have a good win or two at home. Maybe even stole one on the road. There’s 20ish games against good competition in those leagues (exemption: P12). *Can* they win a game or two in the bracket? Yes. But There are probably 100 teams that that *could* do that- and that’s NOT a reason to include them in the field
March 14th, 2021 at 12:28 PM ^
They have the most bizarre resume ever. When compared to other teams on bubble, objectively they should be in...but out of all teams on bubble they feel most likely to lose by like 30 to some middling 7 seed.
I see what you did there. But I think you meant a Middle Tennessee State 13(?) seed.
I'm not sure if home/road is going to be that much of a factor this year for the committee, however the wins vs UM, UI, and OSU are going to be good enough to get them in. And some of the teams ahead of them in net have below .500 records, like Indiana, PSU, Kentucky, which I don't think the committee has awarded an at-large bid.
good point for bullet one. for me... they should not wgone for 3 points instead going for 2. it was an one point lead... simple as that. Suckeyes destroyed michigan by their 3 shooting here and there. it was a great game for sure and they fought back. loved the defense play by Dickinson where he stole the ball and scored to keep the game close.
they will have a great run in the march madness. GO BLUE!
Brown was the best player on a P5 team at WF last year. He absolutely should be seeing the court more. I do think there are matchup concerns with him and Johns that should be considered, but I'd rather roll with him than try to figure out Johns. Plus, Brown has played so much more this year that he's got more time playing with this lineup and should have more cohesion.
MSU is in, and likely was in once they beat OSU and Illinois. But I don't see there being any bid thieves who could dislodge them beyond possibly thumping them down to a play-in game.
Brown is also more likely to get going offensively than Johns—mid range to threes. Livers was our best midrange shooter, and that was where they stank in the first 35 yesterday. If Brown got it going there, it loosens up the rest of the offense.
However, going with the hot hand matters more than which of the two starts. Johns can start for many P5 teams, too.
I think the coaches will go with matchups. Both will play, and so will Williams.
March 14th, 2021 at 10:31 AM ^
Has Brown shot from the midrange? I can't recall much of that. Seems he usually shoots 3s and has the occasional thunder dunk.
March 14th, 2021 at 11:19 AM ^
If Brown starts, the first sub off the bench for Eli or Smith is Zeb. Notice, Zeb didn’t play at all yesterday. There’s your answer for why Johns is starting.
We've seen one game against a particular opponent; Michigan knew they'd have the size advantage with Young out so it made sense to deploy Johns there. But against another opponent I'm not sure that makes sense, and in the end both Johns and Brown played the same amount of time.
This team has a thin bench anyway, and so it's not hugely important who starts or not, but Johns doesn't give you any more positional flexibility overall compared to Brown.
March 14th, 2021 at 12:23 PM ^
Chaundee is certainly a starting-caliber player at most P5 schools, but he wasn't the best player on that '19-'20 WF team, Brandon Childress was.
The matchup concerns are alarming when Brown is in the starting 5. Brown can guard 1-3 with very little problem, though due to his aggressive playstyle, smaller and quicker guards can get by him and create space. Johns can guard the 3-5 and has even shown some ability to switch onto a 2 guard in a pinch.
If Brown is starting, and Davis is Hunter's first sub, then who comes off the bench for Franz? Johns and Franz may be able to guard similar positions, but offensively, you now have two players who cannot do much outside of the post area, Davis and Johns. As another poster pointed out, with Brown in the starting 5, if Brooks and Smith both need blows or are in foul trouble, that leaves Zeb as the only other possible sub at the 1 and 2 guard spots. Perhaps getting Zeb some run against a 16-seed is possible, but against almost every tournament team, that is not a winning rotational strategy.
Also, "figuring out Johns" seems harsh given his performance yesterday against a likely 2-seed in the tournament. The guy was playing hard, getting great post possessions that led to fouls and points. You'd like to see him finish those off for and-ones, but for what Johns has given you almost all season, that level of play is phenomenal in comparison.
I think Brown is a better defender than Childress was and isn't demonstrably different as a scorer/shooter. Childress dominated possessions so his numbers were higher, but Brown was just as important overall and WF was absolutely bummed when he left. So even if Childress is considered the best, Brown is a close second.
See, I think Johns struggles with a lot of his switching; he gets out of position more than you'd like and still seems to not have a good sense of what to do offensively. Despite playing far fewer minutes than Brown he has effectively the same foul rate per 40; he's also got a TO rate of 25% on the few possession he actually plays. So while he may be "switchable" in the abstract sense he's enough of a liability on offense that whatever marginal benefit he has given this team defensively has likely been negated.
I know we keep talking about bench minutes but I don't think it functionally matters; Brown and Johns played the same number of minutes yesterday. They have about 7 guys who'd I expect to see many minutes going forward, with Jackson possibly breaking in. But even with Livers they only had so many guys they could go to, and it's why I think they'll be fine in the NCAA tournament because it's basically 2 games a week. They'll have time to recover if they play their starters a ton. And thus far they've stayed out of foul trouble.
Listen, I like Johns. I still think he could have some semblance of a DJ Wilson breakout wherein it all clicks and he starts playing like the talent he possesses. But comparing a third-year guy to Zeb Jackson isn't fair; Johns has been at UM long enough that you'd hope to have seen a bit more given how many opportunities he's had to see minutes. I mean, I'm certain Howard isn't crazy about playing Davis so much when Dickinson goes out but Johns kept losing playing time this year and we kept hearing about how he's got to keep his confidence up and all that. I hope his performance in the BTT is a sign of things to come, but I'm also just being realistic that assuming he's made that turn based on a handful of games might not be sustainable.
I love breakdowns like that, ones that explain what happened because I can't always see it. In a scramble like that, I'm okay with the shot Smith took. It wasn't what was drawn up, but basketball is a sport where 1-on-1 happens more often than any other sport, and you just have to win them. Didn't win it yesterday...
I don't know if MSU 'deserves' to be in, but they won't last long. Playing against the NCAAT whistle is not the same as playing with the whistle at Breslin. Izzo gets so much home cooking...
I thought John's played a decent game yesterday, though I do wish he would have hit the front end of those and-1's he got... I think he and Brown are somewhat interchangeable depending on the opponent. With Johns the option against better post play, and Brown better against wings/guards. If nothing else, Brown needs to hit his first 1 or 2 shots. If he doesn't, it seems like he gets ice cold and hits nothing all game.
Johns was 7 for 8 from the line. His free throw shooting was part of the reason it was close late. The problem is that Smith was 1 for 11 from the field, Wagner was 2 for 10 and Brown was 1 for 6. Add in Johns 0 for 3 and four of your top seven went 4 for 30. That is a lot of missed shots.
Start Johns. Bring Brown off bench. Play may have broke down but I'll take that shot by Smith. I want sparty in the tourney and for Izzo to get embarrassed in first or second round.
Chaundee is our backup 2/3, I would keep him there. The question becomes should a guy like Zeb get minutes. He might be able to create for himself or others, something that is lacking from this team now.
MSU is in the field, but I do think the committee will set up a scenario where Syracuse/MSU will play in the First 4.
March 14th, 2021 at 11:04 AM ^
I don't see how Zeb Jackson is in the discussion -- he and Livers play very different positions, not to mention Livers outweighs Jackson by 50 lbs. Beyond that, Zeb looks very raw & like a typical, non-super stud freshman PG -- he was unimpressive during non-conf, and during the B1G hasn't played much b/c games are not typically blowout. If he's getting meaningful minutes, it either means things have gone very right (we're ahead by 30) or very wrong (either Smith or Brooks has been injured).
I think it is matchup dependent, but in general it will be like yesterday -- Livers' minutes will go mostly to Johns, a bit to Brown, and a bit to Williams II.
March 14th, 2021 at 11:45 AM ^
Livers put up 14 ppg roughly and played heavy minutes...you threw T-Will into the rotation who is a forward but he isn’t going to give you much in terms of offense so you have to possibly dig deeper into your bench for that. Yes Zeb doesn’t play the same position as Isaiah but you may have to dig deeper into your bench to replace a key player.
March 14th, 2021 at 12:39 PM ^
I don't think he's ready, but if he were, Zeb could absolutely replace Livers minutes.
Wagner moves down to the starting 4 in place of Livers.
Brown moves to the starting 3 in place of Wagner.
Zeb becomes the backup guard in place of Brown.
Given the positional versatility of Wagner, Brown, Brooks, Michigan could replace Livers minutes with a 2, 3, or 4 and just shift guys around.
Let's assume Michigan had the perfect play call for the last play. They initiated way too late. No matter what the intent, this almost never works when a team dribbles out the clock and let's it run down to 10 seconds or less. They forget the 2-3 seconds it takes to actually initiate after they plan to initiate. Everyone gets a little panicky and sped up and someone ends up heaving up a prayer, at best.
If they make the slight adjustment to start at more like 15 seconds, there is time to run the whole offense and create imbalance in the defense that allows for the open shots M has been getting all year.
No big deal since it was just the big ten tournament and Juwan Howard has already emphatically proven his coaching chops, but I would still call this a coaching mistake.
March 14th, 2021 at 10:43 AM ^
I agree, Juwan may not have specifically told him to jack up a three but the decision to delay made that the most likely outcome.
March 14th, 2021 at 12:15 PM ^
I understand ,but you also don't want to give osu to much time left on the clock if we make it ! It was just bad execution!
March 14th, 2021 at 12:31 PM ^
They started the action with 8 seconds on the clock. Barring an egregious defensive breakdown, what we got was basically the only possible outcome. I think the chances of making a good shot and OSU missing whatever shot they get with limited time on the clock is greater than the chances of us making a bad shot. What we choose to do seems to be borderline basketball gospel so it's likely I'm full of it but...
March 14th, 2021 at 12:32 PM ^
The most important thing is to score. If OSU has time for one last shot, so be it. If you're ahead or tied, sure, you want to limit their chance. But when you're trailing, you must get a basket. Give yourself time to run a good play and if it misses, enough time to rebound or foul. Don't leave it all down to one shot.
March 14th, 2021 at 12:39 PM ^
There was time for a rebound. Watch Hunter get shoved under the basket. If he’s in better rebounding position, he has a great opportunity for a tip in or catch and shoot.
Folks blaming Smith or Coach Howard are just reacting to the result they saw. Smith is 50% from there. HD was posted up too far from the basket to be a good option.
I can admit that I wouldn't have written this post if Smith's shot had dropped. But I'm reacting to seeing the same thing what seems like hundreds of times all ending the same way. Either in no shot, or in a desperation step back heave that is nowhere near 50% likely to go in.
Go back and look at all the various last second shots you've seen go in for a win. They are far more often from a play intent that does not start with dribbling all but 8 seconds out of the clock.
He took the shot so late that we would have needed an instant putback to have a chance, and Hunter didn’t have time to get into position.
I love Juwan. He’s gotten way more things right than wrong. But I think he got this one wrong. It’s not shocking, since he’s still pretty inexperienced and we haven’t played many games that have gone down to the wire.
If you’re ahead or tied, you run down the clock, but if you’re behind, you shouldn’t hold for one shot because that just reduces your chances of winning. Start your action with ample time on the clock.
March 14th, 2021 at 10:01 AM ^
When did everyone on this blog become so obsessed with everything MSU does even when we aren’t playing them? Who cares about MSU. They are going nowhere if they make the tourney. Let’s move on.
March 14th, 2021 at 10:10 AM ^
I think most bracketologists have MSU safely in the field no matter what happens. I think they’re one of the last teams in on a bye, not even a First Four team, so I’d be shocked if they miss out.
I think once they beat Michigan that was all they needed.
March 14th, 2021 at 10:18 AM ^
MSU is in, you should have stuck to 2 topics.
If it’s me, I just trust Chaundee way more than Johns. We were -11 with Johns on the court yesterday. If I’m trying to win a championship (assuming no foul trouble) I would go with
PG: Smith 35 Brooks 5
SG: Brooks 30 Chaundee 10
SF: Chaundee 22 Franz 18
PF:Franz 16 Johns 14 Williams 10
C: Dickinson 30 Davis 8 Johns 2
Smith 35
Brooks 35
Franz 34
Chaundee 32
Dickinson 30
Johns 16
Williams 10
Davis 8
I think the starting point that everyone would agree to is that The general goal is to maximize the time that Smith, Brooks, and Wagner on the floor. I think that means close to 35 minutes a game, if the game is close. Based in the way that Howard has played Dickinson, that is not as true with him. He has averaged 26 minutes per game and has only played 29 or more minutes in 6 games this year. Davis has averaged 11.5 minutes per game and has only played less than 11 five times. I don’t see his minutes going down. In the end I think we agree on the combination of Davis and Dickinson getting 38 minutes at the 5.
That covers 70 of 80 minutes at the one and two. 35 of 80 minutes at the 3 and 4 and 38 of 40 minutes at the five. Assuming that Johns picks up 2 minutes at the five, that means, what do you do with the remaining 55 minutes. Given everything we have seen, those minutes are likely to be mostly split between Brown, Johns and Williams with Zeb likely only playing garbage minutes or if Smith or Brooks is limited.
I think you go in assuming that Brown gets 30, Johns gets 18 and Williams gets 7. Hat gets you:
Smith - 35
Brooks - 35
Wagner - 35
Dickinson - 26
Brown - 30
Johns - 20
Davis - 12
Williams - 7
Practically, from game to game, that could change based on circumstances. Like yesterday, with only 3 guys shooting at all well, Johns got more time given he was at least consistently getting to the line. In the opening game against a 16 seed I would hope that Smith, Brooks and Wagner don’t all need to play 35 minutes. That might mean more time for Johns or Williams. It might even mean a few minutes for Zeb.
March 14th, 2021 at 10:28 AM ^
The last play was reflective of much of the game as a whole, they just looked out of sync running their sets. What killed me was deciding to pocket the last time out. As noted above, they should have started the action earlier and called the time out as soon as it became evident that something was off. That ball should have wound up in Hunter's hands.
On the other hand, I know something like one-billionith about basketball compared to the staff. Bless them and the players alike, they fought to the end in trying circumstances and the loss is a minor annoyance weighed against a season of joy they have given me.
March 14th, 2021 at 11:15 AM ^
Georgetown's Big East championship could be a problem for State.
March 14th, 2021 at 11:48 AM ^
State is in. Almost every bracketologist out there has them safely in the field. Not even as a First Four team. Legitimately in.
How long they last is a good question, but there’s nothing that can happen today that’ll prevent them from being left out. Their win over Michigan got them in.
March 14th, 2021 at 11:54 AM ^
Yeah, definitely in. I'll be very surprised if they make Sweet 16 though. Beaten some really good teams, but holy hell have they looked terrible other times. And not just once or twice...many times.
March 14th, 2021 at 11:16 AM ^
Chaundee is a much better player than Johns.
March 14th, 2021 at 11:23 AM ^
It is not an issue of which one is better (Johns or Chaundee), and the starter is not necessarily the one that will finish with the most minutes. Keep in mind that it is likely the only person with a leap in minutes based on Livers injury is Williams who goes from 0 in tournament games to 10 - 15 minutes of game time.
I just think that starting has ignited something with Johns and his defense and will to initiate something is peaking right now so keep him going by starting. Chaundee should be no fewer minutes but he should be getting those minutes through a variety of lineups where he is not necessarily the 4.
I am not following your math. Livers averaged 31.6 minutes per game. He played 36 or more minutes in 6 of our last 10 games. Unless one player is going to take all of Livers minutes, multiple players have to have leaps in minutes.
I do agree that Brown and Johns are the two obvious candidates to start and that a big part of the decision should hinge on who gets the bigger mental lift from starting vs who is best suited to coming off the bench. Brown has definitely proved he can bring it off the bench and a big part of Johns problem seems to be a confidence issue, so I can understand the choice Howard made.
March 14th, 2021 at 11:50 AM ^
Great breakdown by Wright. Yeah, it looks like Hunter leaves too early, before the screen is set, and that put Smith in a tight spot. (Though it might be that Hunter expected to Eli to come set the screen earlier, and saw that time was running out so he had to go.)
In any event, we should have started the action a few seconds earlier. There would have been more time for Hunter to establish better position against Sueing after the OSU defenders switched. Waiting until there were 9 seconds left to start going forced us to execute it perfectly in one go and we didn't.
To me, he makes the argument FOR calling the timeout there: Your freshman botched the play.
Our fans complained about our last play, but Illinois also shot a 3 pointer that missed at the end of regulation versus Ohio State in a tie game. But looks like OSU is choking in OT.