Bracketology: 3 Seed/East
After this weekend, ESPN has pushed Michigan up to a 3 in their latest version:
http://www.espn.com/mens-college-basketball/bracketology
Bracket Matrix has Michigan at a 4; however, I believe it is not updated to show what happened yesterday.
MSU is at 3, Ohio State has fallen to a 5.
think we match up better w Duke than some other teams. We now can count on Teske to handle Bagley, and our guards can cover their shooters. Duke is not "all that" outside of Raleigh Durham.
Virginia is who I do not want to see. They play good D like us, and just find ways to win. Going 9-0 on the road in the ACC is unreal. Don't want to me up with them until much later...
point. But I think we beat Duke w our overall D. And again - get them away from their home fans, and not same team. Road losses to weak teams Boston College and St. Johns, on top of road losses to North Carolina, NC State and Va Tech...
Bagley plays the 4, it would likely be Duncan Robinson/Livers guarding him. As much as Duncan has improved on that end, Bagley is a different beast.
Wagner and Teske would have to match up with Wendell Carter, who is a load on the post but also a very good passer who can shoot from the outside. Wagner can make him defend on the other end, but Carter has surprised scouts with his mobility so this won't be like going against guys like Caleb Swanigan.
I do like the matchup with the guards. Trevon Duval is turnover-prone and feel like Z can really get the better of that matchup, and I'm confident in Rahk's ability to penetrate against Grayson Allen.
Still, Duke is one of the worse matchups for us. They've been defending extremely well of late.
seeds - you guys are prob right. Many more attractive options in 2nd weekend. But they can be had outside of RD...
This right here^^. Duke away from Cameron (fans, refs) is a tentative team this year. K saved their season by going to a zone that we would destroy in multiple ways on an even playing field.
We would what now? Be comfortable with Jon Teske on Bagley?
take it back. Caffeine hasn't hit brain, and I still have visions of Teske flying down the lane and slamming ball right in face of Ivan Drago. Nice being in this "happy place" following beatdowns of Sparty and Purdue. Will come back to earth shortly...
style-wise for us IMO. Their defense is suffocating.
Man, I can hear the sputturing and whining already. That would be a beautiful thing.
sure how much it means - but nice to get the recognition from Lunardi, who had been keeping us low until now.
However, Lunardi, shows he is not the sharpest stick, with neither Michigan or Sparty, both seeded at #3, playing in Detroit the first weekend. Instead, he gives that to Purdue, the #2 and highest ranking seed, who won neither the regular season or tourney title. Don't see that happening...
If his seedings are right, this is exactly how it would play out. They're not going to ship a 2 seed 50 miles further away (to Nashville) in order to keep a 3 seed closer to home.
Note also that Lunardi has MSU higher on the S-Curve than Michigan, which is why they're (a) in Kansas's bracket instead of Villanova's and (b) in Nashville instead of Wichita.
I get that we're all fans, but many of you are being as irrationally exuberant about Michigan as you're accusing RCMB of being about MSU. It's possible Michigan is seeded ahead of MSU, but if they're not, all it means is that the committee punished Michigan for its bad losses. It's almost impossible that Michigan will be seeded ahead of Purdue; not only do they have the better overall résumé, they also have 2 out of 3 against UM.
Michigan is playing as well as anyone in the country, and I fully expect to pick them in my bracket, like I do every year (because obv. :) But, depending upon how the other conference tournaments go, I wouldn't be surprised to see them anywhere from a 3 to a 5.
argument was pretty solid - until you said we could get seeded 5. Not going to happen now - 3 at best, 4 at worst. Too many potential 2-5 teams will beat each other up in the conf tourneys this week.
Also, I think the selection committee would have hard time not giving Detroit to us or Sparty. 50 miles extra to Nashville for Purdue not a big deal - easy drive through the flat farmland...
I hope you're right, but then I look back at the losses. I will be cheering for anybody on the 3-5 line to lose early and often in their conference tournaments. If you get a couple of teams that are in the 4-5 range going to the tournament semis and finals, I expect Michigan's seed to drop.
It's like being the early leader in the clubhouse in a golf tournament. Michigan has posted a score, but the rest of the field is still out on the course.
That would be a rough draw in the East.
Duke as the 2, Nova as the 1? Bleh.
Is one of the most talented teams in the country.
Villanova and Duke would be the worst pair of 1/2 available in this bracket.
Virginia/Cincinatti- I'll take that all day.
Xavier/Purdue- Please.
Kansas/Carolina- Tough, but I think both are overrated.
A ton. In fact, they are probably my pick to win the whole thing.
But the difference between them and Nova is miniscule.
Providence and Creighton are both good teams, not sure why you would include that in a bad loss.
Except for "Virginia/Cincinatti- I'll take that all day" -- Either Xavier/Purdue or Kansas/Carolina seems like a much easier path to the Final Four
Did they have a bunch of good non-con wins that is driving us the prestige of the whole league? (I suppose we are one of the suckers who contributed to that) because when I look at their league standings I see a mass of humdrum teams
I mean LSU beat us, so that probably didn't help
Holy shit they are insane - they don't know it yet, but Michigan will be ranked the same seed (a three) and go to LCA.
They're going to go OVER THE MOON when that happens. I can't wait!
In spectacular fashion.
In spectacular floor slapping fashion.
Speaking of which, I saw a few of those yesterday in the second half (didn't get to watch the first half) and each time M got a bucket or freethrows. Continue the floor slap, Sparty.
I really need to find a gif of the McQuaid floor slap from the semis. I almost lost it laughing.
It's fun to be on the other side of the bubble chatter, having teams like UCLA and Texas root for us so that we can drag them into the tournament with us.
This is the time of the year where the cream rises to the top. Wow, who would have thought 3 weeks ago we would be considered a 3 seed?! What a run, and I can hardly wait until next week!
And as a reward for our hard work: Duke in the Sweet Sixteen.
it matters not which bracket you draw, you are facing somebody tough in the second or third round, and it might as well be someone who if you beat them establishes your reputation and certifies your confidence.
Michigan is deeper than Duke, plays better defense, and just needs to concentrate on stopping two guys who are their primary scorers. So, if you face Duke in the third round and win, the next team you get has to figure out Beilein's intricate offense in two days. That is the only advantage Duke would get in that bracket matchup in the third round. Beat the ACC's top three and what are the critics going to say, because every other team is bunched.
There are no SEC teams which don't play like any in the Big Ten with lesser skill. So then you're talking about Xavier, Cincinatti and Villanova which are potentially tougher matchups. Don't really know about the teams out West.
The parity in college basketball is so deep now. Once you start talking round of 32 and beyond you're more then likely playing a good team. Rarely does chalk hold up in the tourney anymore. In the last 5 years these are the seeds that have made the FF:
'13: 1, 4, 4, 9
'14: 1, 2, 7, 8
'15: 1, 1, 1, 7
'16: 1, 2, 2, 10
'17: 1,1, 3, 7
8 number one seeds have made the FF over that span while 6 teams seeded 7th or lower have made the FF.
"8 number one seeds have made the FF over that span while 6 teams seeded 7th or lower have made the FF."
This is kind of like saying that there are as many three-star recruits as five-star recruits drafted in the first round of the NFL draft. Even if you only look at 7-10 seeds as seeds who have a shot at making the final four, there are 16 of those every year and only four one-seeds. So a one-seed still has a much, much better chance at making it than a team seeded seventh or lower.
it used to be unheard of for 7 seeds or lower to make the FF. The depth and parity in college basketball much greater now then it used to be. Just look at the seeds that were making FFs 20-25 years ago:
93: 1, 1, 1, 2
94: 1, 2, 2, 3
95: 1, 2, 2, 4
96: 1, 1, 4 ,5
97: 1, 1, 1, 4
98: 1, 2, 3, 3,
99: 1, 1, 1, 4
Sure a one seed still has a better chance of making the FF but the original point was once you start hitting the round of 32, you're more then likely playing a good team every game.
The advent of top players leaving early for the NBA after one or two years has been a driver of that effect. Teams that recruit stars every year will now lose a lot of them to the NBA, so teams that recruit lesser talents but keep them for three or four years can make up the difference with experience.
It used to be that many players would stay for four years, and all but the biggest stars would stay for three. Larry Johnson and Chris Webber were two of the first stars to leave after two years - even Shaq stayed at LSU for three years. Guys like Calbert Cheaney and Christian Laettner stayed for four years despite being superstars.
I am totally interested in knowing who I should root for in every tournament. If someone tells me that East Tennessee State beating UNC Greensboro tonight will make PSU a quadrant 1 win, I will buy a case of beer and watch.
Also, if there's a path for LSU to become a Quadrant 1 loss, I will watch SEC Network for the first time ever.
Hopefully someone will break this down!
Start with rpiforecast.com (although they haven't updated for today just yet). For the teams that you're interested in -- e.g., PSU -- click on them and scroll down to the "RPI Impact" section. The column you're interested in is "Fut Wgt" (although it will equal "Curr Wgt" for teams, like PSU, that have finished their season). All other things being equal, you're cheering for the team with the higher value if you're trying to help a team's RPI improve.
For your specific example, UNC Greensboro has a tiny weight into PSU's RPI; ETSU has none. So, if that's your focus, you'd want UNC-G.
I was honestly thinking about putting together something like this -- gotta find something to do this week -- but it's been a bit of a pain to find a good source to download full team vs team schedule data with the game locations, which is what I'd need in order to put together something more automated. :)
because yes, if UNCG loses tonight, PSU would (at least temporarily) be back up to Q1.
And if LSU wins the SEC tourney, that would be a Q1 loss.
Root for LSU, VCU, CMU, Texas, UCLA and any of our other non-conf opponents to go as far as possible.
Root for Wichita St. Kentucky, Clemson, Tennessee, WVU, Arizona, Gonzaga, Florida, Houston, TCU, Miami, Texas Tech, Auburn or anyone currently projected as a 3-6 seed to lose as early as possible and there you go. The only exception is that we probably want UNC to win to help our own RPI, accepting that they're probably going to finish ahead of us anyway.