ijohnb

February 29th, 2016 at 12:45 PM ^

feel like these projections almost assume an Iowa loss, because I don't think we are a First Four team if we beat them.  So, this might not be all bad.

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LSAClassOf2000

February 29th, 2016 at 1:00 PM ^

Most sites that do estimated odds pretty much see the Iowa game as a coin flip of sorts, with Massey putting the probability at 43%, TeamRankings at 54% and other projections somewhere in between those. I think the larger point is that the road - what we have of a road - to the Torunament would be made fantastically simpler if we beat Iowa even by a possession or two. That takes a little heat off our performance in the BTT, but not much perhaps - some projections get us to the quarterfinal as a #7 or #8 in the conference tournament. We're also probably contending with some of the auto-bids too, so there is that to consider as well. 

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doggdetroit

February 29th, 2016 at 1:45 PM ^

No, these are projections based on today.

I have been following bracket matrix for the past 4 weeks. Back then, Michigan was between an 8 and 9 seed, closer to 8. Remember the talk about Michigan possibly moving up to a 7 to avoid a second round game with a 1 seed? As the losses have piled up combined with just two quality wins in that span (Maryland, Purdue), Michigan has steadily fallen. Two weeks ago they were between a 9 and 10 seed. One week ago they were between a 10 and 11 seed. Today, they are the 2nd 11 seed, just one spot ahead of what would be the last 4 in. A loss to Iowa will surely move them into the last 4 in if not the first 4 out.  Michigan needs to beat Iowa or else they will be sweating it out on selection Sunday (assuming they don't win two games in the BTT).

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ijohnb

February 29th, 2016 at 2:24 PM ^

in the season I think Bracketology takes into account likely outcomes even if not specifically stated.  If we beat Iowa we would finish the regular season 20-10, 11-7 in the Big Ten with wins over 4 top 25 teams.  That is not the resume of a "Last 4 In" team.  I think if we beat Iowa we are back in the conversation as a 9 or a 10.

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jmblue

February 29th, 2016 at 4:11 PM ^

I thought the idea of Bracketology and the rest was to project the field as it would stand if the season ended today.  I don't think future games are taken into consideration.

 

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ijohnb

February 29th, 2016 at 7:37 PM ^

Disagree with bubble teams late in the season. I think it reflects remaining schedules, how teams are trending and projected conference tourney results. For a highly ranked teams yeah I think it is "as of today," but it is impossible to weed through bubble teams without looking what they are facing. I think bubble team bracketology is kind of a hybrid analysis. Like, I think Lunardi is making this projection with a loss t Iowa and a win against PSU in mind. We are not a First Four team with a 4th Top 25 win. No way.

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Tuebor

February 29th, 2016 at 12:54 PM ^

Seems right.  We will probably lose to Iowa, and go 1-1 in the B1G Tournament.  I think that is enough to get us to the first four.  If we go 0-1 in the B1G Tournament after losing to Iowa we get bounced off the bubble.

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DMill2782

February 29th, 2016 at 12:54 PM ^

this thread now has Stayin' Alive stuck in my head. 

That begs the question, would the Bee Gees have a better shot at the Sweet 16 than this team? It's debatable. 

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ijohnb

February 29th, 2016 at 2:35 PM ^

very much we would get destroyed in the first round.  If we get in and shoot well we could make it to the second weekend.  It is amazing how much breathing room it feels like our shooters have once we get into the tourney after a BIG season.  These teams know each other so well at this point in the season that they are "running each others routes."  This is still a team that would be an absolute nightmare if they are start hitting at the same time.

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DMill2782

February 29th, 2016 at 4:33 PM ^

You never know what can happen when you are in. George Mason made the Final Four. Florida Gulf Coast made the Sweet Sixteen. You want that chance to get hot and go on a run. I know it's improbable, but we absolutely want the opportunity. 

It's always good to be in the national spotlight as opposed to being a complete afterthought in the NIT. No recruit on earth gives a fuck about the NIT.

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M-Dog

February 29th, 2016 at 4:57 PM ^

Michigan is a hard team to prepare for in a limited timeframe if you have not seen them before.

Our inconsistency also goes both ways.  If we get on a hot 3-point shooting streak, we can knock off some teams.

If you are Michigan, with our high variance offense, you always want a shot at the NCAA tournament, even in a bad year.

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Wolvie3758

February 29th, 2016 at 1:17 PM ^

this team is as it pretty much boils down to Iowa..Lets hope we dont see the lackluster, emotionless, going thru the motions performance weve seen most of this year

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Darker Blue

February 29th, 2016 at 1:20 PM ^

we're going to beat Iowa and win 2 games in the B1G tourney and then we'll hopefully move up to a 7 seed. 

Also I do not care what anybody says, this team will make the NCAA

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Harlans Haze

February 29th, 2016 at 1:38 PM ^

woud you put UM in? I seriously doubt there are 33 (or whatever the number is) more talented at-large teams, but there might be 60 teams that I'd rather watch than UM, and that' s coming from someone who sat through the majority of the terrible losses this year. As Brian points out in his column, there's a feeling of inevitable dread that comes with watching this team. I'm sure the committe members have watched some of these games, and just can't be that impressed with what they've seen. And, furthermore, the team has no personality, no one that the committe feels must be on the national stage. That's going to be a detriment. The numbers might be, for the moment, pointing toward the tournament, but this might be a case where the eye test trumps the numbers. And, in the case of the eye test, UM fails pretty miserably.

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Jimmyisgod

February 29th, 2016 at 2:08 PM ^

This is my thought as well, although a win vs Iowa and a loss in the first game of the BTT could get us in depending on what the bubble looks like then.  And yeah, we have to hope that the favorites win the tourneys in the mid major conferences.

That being said, Iowa is a train wreck right now and are more than beatable.

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Perkis-Size Me

February 29th, 2016 at 2:02 PM ^

Even if we make the tournament, any team we run into with competent big men is going to send us right on home.

Call me a Debbie Downer, but this team won't make it out of the first weekend even if it does make the tournament. Unless it somehow starts shooting 40-50% from 3.



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Saint_in_Blue

February 29th, 2016 at 2:24 PM ^

Must beat Iowa. I don't trust this team to win 2 games in the BTT. No matter you shake it we absolutely must be 2-1 in a 3 game span, whether it starts with Wisconsin or it starts with Iowa.

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