Big10’s 21 day period vs 10-14 days for other conferences
As has been noted in Brian’s and other’s discussion threads the Big10 has a 21 day period during which players who test positive can’t play vs 14 or 10 days for other conferences. What I have not seen discussed is that these different quarantine periods have very different objectives and dramatically different consequences.
As we know, the 10 or 14 day quarantines in the Big12, SEC, and ACC are for minimizing the risk of spread. If they are not testing everyday and getting same day results they also have to quarantine close contacts from the previous 5-10 days. The overall objective is to reduce the risk of spread once someone has the virus. Once they are no longer contagious they can play.
With daily testing and instant results in the Big10 you are theoretically catching the viral load at a level before it’s contagious and there is little or no need for contract tracing and no need for quarantining close contacts. In that case a 14 day quarantine for only those testing positive would also be sufficient for minimizing spread.
The 21 days, though, was created by the Big10 to monitor the patient long enough to screen for myocarditis risk. If the rigorous testing protocol for myocarditis is negative after 21 days they can return to play. If positive they are not returning. 21 days is solely for player health even though it means a lot of positive cases could turn into three weeks of games being cancelled.
This difference in approaches seems quite damning to the other conferences. The SEC for example has a very abnormal late start where teams could pursue heard immunity for competitive advantage, but doing so makes player health an after thought. Even if teams like LSU are not ”actively” pursuing heard immunity, they are still putting players back into game and practice situations before the waiting period needed to screen for myocarditis.
These conferences could institute a 21 waiting period for the benefit of the players but this would likely mean their 30% game cancellation rate would increase to over 50%. They wouldn't have a season.
Also, the lack of testing and protocol transparency in those conferences combined with the waivers they had players sign makes it easy to cut corners for competitive advantage. The bottom line is if you add up all their current actions and policies, these conferences are allowing coaches and schools to pursue winning at all cost with no accountability to or liability from players. How is ignoring these risks to players with no requirement for public transparency any different from ignoring the abuses of a dr or asst coach.
It’s not clear if anything can be done since the NCAA has decided to step aside and not be accountable. I am posting this here because there needs to be an increase in awareness of this issue.
It will be issue that needs to be addressed by the college football playoff committee and by any bowl games if played. The only other opportunity to hold these conferences accountable would be for player’s parents to sue.
September 22nd, 2020 at 6:30 PM ^
I herd what you said!
September 22nd, 2020 at 7:08 PM ^
That is a sick joke.
September 22nd, 2020 at 10:30 PM ^
It could go viral
September 23rd, 2020 at 12:54 AM ^
Um, fecal plumes?
September 23rd, 2020 at 7:05 AM ^
I'm all ears. Tell me more.
September 22nd, 2020 at 6:42 PM ^
Barrett Sallee is a a clown, but I do typically listen to his SiriusXM ESPNU show every Sunday AM.
He posited that the B1G's 21-day period is a "conspiracy" such that the B1G could say "hey, we tried, but too many people are having to sit out and we can't have games. The season needs to be cancelled again."
I generally don't believe in conspiracy theories, but I can't say 21 days makes any more scientific sense than 10-14 days. And 21 days, of course, increases the logistical difficulties vs. 10-14 days. It is almost like the B1G is trying to make the bar higher than necessary.
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FWIW, if you believe the data in this Tweet below: college students certainly aren't being hospitalized (or dying) in large numbers due to CV. I don't see Michigan or MSU on this list, so perhaps this guy is cherry-picking his numbers. Although I do doubt it.
Net: I think the "zero tolerance" policy adopted by many, including the B1G as regards football, isn't truly necessary. But, I've said that before.
https://twitter.com/andrewbostom/status/1308496346454913026/photo/1
September 22nd, 2020 at 6:58 PM ^
Does the testing and monitoring for myocarditis over an extra 7 days not make much sense? I honestly don't 100% know whether it's appropriate but I take it it doesn't register with you.
September 22nd, 2020 at 7:15 PM ^
People can get myocarditis from any virus. CV isn't unique in that regard.
I've spoken on it before, and I tend to get downvoted. But people simply aren't considering INCREMENTAL risk when they consider CV.
They look at any absolute risk that is non-zero and say "that's unacceptable" (the "zero tolerance" idea I talk about), while ignoring the fact that risk was always non-zero well before CV came onto the scene.
If this is the new policy, we should sit out all football, basketball, hockey, lacrosse (etc) players for 7 days after contracting the flu or the cold in future seasons. We need to test for myocarditis, after all.
September 22nd, 2020 at 7:30 PM ^
21 days looks like as much of an overreaction as the initial cancelling of the season.
September 22nd, 2020 at 7:34 PM ^
The lack of bye weeks and late start date (honestly, the B1G could have started as early as October 10) are also eyebrow-raising.
By building in no bye weeks, the integrity of the whole season is perhaps compromised. What the heck happens when, say U-M is 6-0 and OSU is 5-0 with their mutual game cancelled (and U-M having played PSU but OSU not)?
I don't know why the B1G just didn't go with a 6-game schedule. All divisional play. At least there's more of a chance of schedule integrity.
September 22nd, 2020 at 8:26 PM ^
I agree about the 6-game division-only season making more sense, at least logistically. Then you'll still have the championship game the way it was intended.
I assume a reason the conference hasn't started yet is they don't actually have the tests in place; as noted in the UV today some were still figuring out the MRI access for follow-up testing as well. Abbott talked about hitting 50M production in October but they aren't there yet, and I don't know if every league team is going to be getting them from the same source or if they have to procure them individually. Plus you'd want a little runway with the tests in hand to make sure they're administered correctly and any initial positive tests are handled appropriately.
September 22nd, 2020 at 9:21 PM ^
The reason they haven’t started yet is all a compromise. OSU and Nebraska wanted to start the same week they agreed. Wisconsin and Maryland wanted more time. I assume Michigan and MSU also wanted more time. The 28th with no byes was only to appease OSU and their playoff hopes.
September 22nd, 2020 at 8:00 PM ^
Stopped reading after the “generally don’t believe in conspiracy theories...” disclaimer.
September 22nd, 2020 at 9:00 PM ^
Good evening. This is by far your most honest MGoBlog post:
FFS, if you want to advance your agenda, stick to the economic fall-out. I've made this suggestion before. Minimizing the virus hurts your cause.
Do you have accounts on popular sports sites of all the Big Ten schools?
September 22nd, 2020 at 9:15 PM ^
What "agenda" I am trying to advance?
The B1G can have a 21-day policy. It's effectively a "zero tolerance" policy, which I concede that many here are in support of.
Fair enough, but if you do that in combination with (1) no bye weeks and (2) an October 24th start date, you're basically maximizing the likelihood the season isn't going to work.
September 22nd, 2020 at 9:52 PM ^
I don't know you so this is purely speculative. :) Let's try to connect the dots.
- You've authored probably hundreds of weasley COVID-19 posts that are aimed at minimizing the virus. (Again, the best arguments against "total lockdowns" are economic.) Only rarely have you broken character and become even a little unhinged. I admire your stamina.
- Why would you minimize the virus? Your West Coast posts from a few days ago hint at the reason: You're a Republican (which, no big deal) and you're nervous about the effect of it on the elections.
- What are the issues that drive your party identification? You did us a favor by referencing an obscure physician with an interesting side hustle. That reference suggests that you might be a little bit of a holy warrior.
September 22nd, 2020 at 10:15 PM ^
I have no skin in this one but you did the research BH and your analysis (connecting of the dots) is accurate...
September 22nd, 2020 at 10:54 PM ^
1. Yes, in my arguments that "CoronaVirus is not Captain Tripps" (or even near the magnitude of the 1918 Flu Pandemic, for that matter) I suppose I am "minimizing" the virus.
As a result of the 1918 Flu Pandemic, the global and American population decreased. That doesn't happen without a legitimately high infection fatality rate. An IFR significantly higher than the 2020 CoronaVirus' IFR.
In the 2020 CoronaVirus Pandemic, the global population has risen by about 50,000,000 (YTD) and the American population net of migration has risen by 500,000 (YTD).
Does that sound like an existential threat to humanity, worth shutting down portions of society (many businesses in California STILL can't open to this day) for 6+ months with no particular end date in sight?
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2. I don't self-identify as a Republican. I self-identify as a Libertarian. There's a difference. I voted for Hillary Clinton in 2016 because I thought then (and I still think today) that Donald Trump conducts himself like a jack-ass and is a poor leader.
Hillary meanwhile, though I thought she was flawed in several ways: I appreciated her overall toughness and her intelligence as regards foreign affairs. She also had considerably better leadership skills than Trump. IMO, Hillary would have been a credible and qualified, although unlikely great, 45th President.
I've voted Democrat a number of times before and there are a number of their policy planks (1. rights as regards abortion, LGBTs and weed, 2. embracing the idea that America should embrace immigrants and should be more in support of open doors versus closed doors, 3. molding tax policy in a way that favors cleaner energy sources vs. less clean sources) that I agree with.
That said, the way in which it has primarily been Democrat Governors that have thrown rights out the door as regards CoronaVirus (in-person Church is still banned in many states!) has turned me off greatly as regards Democrats in 2020.
FWIW, I'll be writing in Justin Amash for President. A "wasted vote", but I'm not voting for Trump either.
As for being nervous about the election, that post from last week: if you noted, I was predicting some Republican GAINS in California & the West Coast in 6 weeks.
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3. As I said, I self-identify as Libertarian. I'll typically defer to the concept of human liberty and freedom over stifling rules and regulations.
If America was truly in mortal danger --- like the UK 80 summers ago as Hitler tried to bomb them into giving up --- sure, THAT is a time for stifling rules and regulations.
But, we are NOT in mortal danger today. I supported the lockdowns back in March & April as we assessed the situation. We learned from there - CV is a legit virus but it is also not Captain Tripps or the 1918 Flu. We should be beyond the time of stifling rules and regulations (LA trying to ban trick-or-treating!).
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Hopefully we can continue the conversation from here. For what it's worth, you may try to insult or marginalize me, but that doesn't effect me. I'll answer your questions, and even if we disagree I will try to have an adult conversation. The ball is now back in your court.
September 23rd, 2020 at 1:07 AM ^
Come on dude. I live in California and every single one of my friends that claims they are a libertarian is a republican. It's just not a cool thing to say among the college educated crowd that's still young. And that's about 7 or 8 of my friends out here and if there were that many libertarians they get more than 1 or 2 percent of the vote every 2 years.
September 23rd, 2020 at 1:23 AM ^
Huh?
So, (1) someone who has never met me (SanDiegoWolverine),
(2) is using an anecdote (every single one of SanDiegoWolverine's California friends that claims they are a Libertarian),
(3) to conclude that I am lying as regards what I say.
Fair enough, but you are wrong.
For the record, the Libertarian Presidential candidate got 3.4% of the vote in California and 3.3% nationally in 2016. Not huge numbers, but that is still 1 out of every 30. Math says that if you collect 20 people who voted in 2016, you'd have a 50-50 chance of having at least 1 Gary Johnson voter in that group of 20. Libertarian voters aren't as uncommon as Sasquatch, as you seem to be implying.
September 23rd, 2020 at 11:32 AM ^
@Nittany - your comments are well-thought out, reasoned, and persuasive.
However, you are wasting your time trying to convince these folks of anything - even that the sky at times is blue (or the color we perceive it to be, that is).
Spend your energy elsewhere. Not worth it.
September 23rd, 2020 at 11:44 AM ^
Thanks. You likely are right as regards "spending my energy" elsewhere.
It is admittedly tough in a world where I feel like my house has become a prison. The endless work remote. The endless Zoom meetings. The endless haranging I've received from some in real life about how me taking a "working vacation" back to Michigan and Ohio has resulted in people dying. The endless inability to even go to Church on a Sunday AM to sit there and simply think about the world and pray for an hour.
It is now 196 days since March 11th, 2020. I talked about how a friend of mine committed suicide in July. A cousin, who I'm admittedly not close to, attempted suicide this past week.
The thing that scares me is that suicidal thoughts now clang around at the far recesses of my own head. They're not at the forefront, but those thoughts which were never there prior to March 2020 are something I'm aware of at the far recesses of my mind.
I do wish for more light in the world.
September 23rd, 2020 at 1:38 PM ^
You're not alone Nittany. I'm a registered Independent with Libertarian leanings. Today's political and cultural climate is so poisonous and dispiriting. Covid just adds a thick layer of suck on top of it all.
I'm not too worried about myself but am very worried about my kids' futures. Fortunately my kids are super well-grounded and adaptable. They've taken to remote learning well (MS & HS) but are still able to participate in Fall sports which is so helpful.
Being able to get outdoors, without a mask, to hike, run, bike, and yes beach when able (it's never crowded; hooray for Lake Michigan!) is a real Godsend and helps maintain physical and mental health.
I do worry how many manage without that outlet. We all know about the terrible physical toll that Covid has inflicted. But the mental toll has been terrible too and has also inflicted so much damage. And tied in with that, the economic toll too of course.
Staying Positive is a daunting challenge that I've taken on for the sake of my kids. Yes they see me growl at the TV (news, mostly) and sometimes I growl at them too, and they growl back. Or my wife and I growl at each other. And we all growl at covid damage and restrictions.
But I do see a light at the end of the tunnel now in the form of a safe and effective vaccine which is so far along now. Therapeutics have also multiplied and gotten more effective. The death rates are now so low -- and consistantly low -- by comparison to what they were in March--May. I know you know all this but it never hurts to repeat good news.
Yeah, things suck pretty bad nowadays but it can't get much worse, can it? Wait, don't answer that, b/c we both know the answer, alas.... Take Care.
September 23rd, 2020 at 2:28 PM ^
Thanks for the nice words.
I acknowledge that I am seeking a light at the end of the tunnel. I also acknowledge that often the best way for a person to find that light at the end of the tunnel is FOR THAT PERSON TO BECOME THE LIGHT
As you said, though, that's a daunting challenge these days.
I'll try harder to become the light. :-)
September 23rd, 2020 at 3:19 PM ^
nittany, you are NOT the darkness around here. you are gracious and thoughtful. take it as a badge of true honor that there are a certain set of folks here that can't stand that kind of logical, non-bombastic approach.
September 23rd, 2020 at 2:00 PM ^
We probably disagree on quite a bit, NittanyFan, but I just wanted to say that I appreciate your patient, logical, measured, and above all transparent responses; both in this thread and over the last several months.
Thanks for your courage, honesty, and reasoned dialogue!
September 23rd, 2020 at 2:33 AM ^
This site sucks so bad it only takes me to the original post, not the comment.
September 22nd, 2020 at 9:17 PM ^
When it potentially comes down to a college kids life, you don’t set the bar at the bare minimum. You raise the fuckin bar. That’s why it’s “high” from your perspective.
Also I like how you preface that you think he’s a clown, but you listen to him every week and also agree with him. I’ll let you take that to it’s logical conclusion.
September 22nd, 2020 at 9:27 PM ^
I listen to the shows for the (1) guests and (2) national perspective, a Sunday AM post-mortem. College football post-mortem is a good topic for 7-10 AM Mountain Time on a Sunday morning. Better than NFL pre-game shows. I don't listen for Barrett Sallee. He's just the traffic cop host.
Who, by the way, I did NOT say that I "always or even usually agree with." YOU are the one who made that incorrect assumption.
As for the bar, did you look at the numbers in the particular tweet I linked? At least for those 37 colleges, the number of college students hospitalized because of COVID can be counted on one hand, with the majority of the digits left over.
But, of course, if your bar is "zero tolerance" (and it is for a number of folk here), that bar is too high. ANY bar would be too high.
September 22nd, 2020 at 7:22 PM ^
Who do you know that isn’t aware of this outside of the NCAA and power five football coaches? Preach to the choir son!
September 22nd, 2020 at 7:39 PM ^
I always took the 21 days as the B1G saying to the players, "We are giving you a season, you better not get this or you have to sit out even longer."
September 22nd, 2020 at 7:48 PM ^
This theory is hilarious to me, not only because it sounds like something a parent would do to shape their five-year-old’s behavior, but also because it was my initial and prevailing thought when I saw that initial 21 day period as well. Whether it is intentional or not, it will certainly provide that much more incentive for the B1G players to play it safe with the virus.
September 23rd, 2020 at 9:34 AM ^
I agree with this. Raise the quarantine time to effectively scare players into taking serious precautions when outside of football activities. The B1G leaders understand the behaviors of 18 to 21 year old college kids. The 21 day waiting period basically ends your season or cripples it to the point that it's a lost cause. They are giving a stern warning to take this seriously -- wear a mask, wash your hands and maintain safe distance from others. In other words, don't go to that overcrowded party.
September 23rd, 2020 at 11:14 AM ^
This idea is a win win for the 21 day waiting period. On one side of the coin, you say that you are taking maximum precaution to test for myocarditis (Good look, could be genuinely thoughtful). On the other side of the coin, you incentivize players to no go out and party or sneak that co-ed in because it would essentially end their season (or dramatically impact your team). The goal is to have a season with minimal positive tests. Opposed to the SEC, which is encouraging mass positive tests for herd immunity.
September 22nd, 2020 at 8:15 PM ^
This could be a huge advantage for Michigan, They had zero positive tests in August. If the team stays clean it could the deciding factor in The Game.
September 22nd, 2020 at 8:30 PM ^
I would take an asterisk win and run with it!
September 22nd, 2020 at 10:35 PM ^
I have trouble believing a game between a short-handed OSU and full strength M would be allowed to happen.
September 23rd, 2020 at 2:11 AM ^
No, if OSU loses its top players to COVID, THE GAME would just be canceled. Wishful thinking though.
September 23rd, 2020 at 8:26 AM ^
You're assuming that OSU would be open and transparent about test results....If Justin Fields tests positive a week before the Michigan game, you think the Buckeyes are going to say anything?
September 23rd, 2020 at 11:05 AM ^
Imagine if UM has no positive tests throughout the entire season. And right after the game, a huge outbreak occurs. Would UM be able to sue OSU if it came out that they did hid the results of a positive infection?
September 22nd, 2020 at 8:18 PM ^
This is why losing McCaffrey is so problematic. What if Milton gets covid and is out for 3 weeks minimum. Then McNamara gets injured. We are then on true freshman Villari who 247 rated 1,242nd overall.
September 22nd, 2020 at 9:02 PM ^
Hey, it's better than being 1,243rd.
September 23rd, 2020 at 11:39 AM ^
Don't you have a cooler to poop in?
September 22nd, 2020 at 9:23 PM ^
Almost any team starting their third string qb is going to suffer. I’m not worried about that at this point.
September 22nd, 2020 at 9:29 PM ^
You may not be worried, but you better believe that nervous bird is worried.
September 23rd, 2020 at 2:14 AM ^
This does not even feel like a true football season. To me it is just a practice season and is likely to canceled for good by November. But at least the young players got some playing time and some good practice time.
September 23rd, 2020 at 10:37 AM ^
I agree. This whole "season" is pretty much practice and experience for the time being until it is inevitably cancelled somewhere down the line. There's barely a semblance of an actual season.
Doesn't even seem right to crown a national champion. Just declare Alabama the champion now (since that's what the NCAA desperately wants anyway) and get what little scrimmage time the players can before it's pulled.
September 22nd, 2020 at 9:07 PM ^
Like 7 days matter. By the way you know when you play sports, even in Pop Warner you sign your rights away to sue? Sports have continued without lawsuits even with paralyzed, dead, crippled players. Why would covid, which would be very hard to prove you got it from football be different?
September 22nd, 2020 at 9:23 PM ^
Can you imagine the insane response of the SEC fan base if they had tried to pull a Big Ten and shut stuff down? This is a calculated risk.
Their F it response will likely amount to nothing and continue to be ignored UNLESS a player gets seriously ill or dies. IF that happens get ready for all the righteous indignation from everyone that is strangely silent about this now.
At that point a designated fall guy will be assigned but nothing will really change. Rinse. Wash. Repeat.
Eat Arby’s
September 22nd, 2020 at 9:37 PM ^
Daily testing in the B1G starts Sept 30. Stand ready for bad shit to happen. Every day teams are testing to stand down and go into the fucking pause. How many make it thru camp and start in Oct as scheduled?