Big Slate in the B1G Week 9
There are a few really BIG games in the B1G this week! First, let’s look at the rankings according to the Fancy Stats (F+):
WEST DIVISION
#8 Wisconsin (FEI #19; SP+ #6)
#16 Iowa (FEI #10; SP+ #19)
#24 Nebraska (FEI #27; SP+ #20)
#30 Minnesota (FEI #36; SP+ #23)
#38 Purdue (FEI #35; SP+ #40)
#82 Illinois (FEI #72; SP+ #87)
#83 Northwestern (FEI #86; SP+ #79)
EAST DIVISION
#2 Ohio State (FEI #3; SP+ #1)
#4 Michigan (FEI #4; SP+ #7)
#11 Penn State (FEI #15; SP+ #10)
#22 Michigan State (FEI #26; SP+ #21)
#65 Maryland (FEI #90; SP+ #33)
#67 Indiana (FEI #74; SP+ #56)
#72 Rutgers (FEI #77; SP+ #65)
It's amazing that the turtle is even volatile among computer models. How does any team rank so far apart to be considered the #90 team in one model and #33 in another?!? What an enigma.
We’ll start in the undercard division with what is virtually a de-facto West Division championship game. (Looks like it’s come down to the Triumvirate of Hate, with Minnesota a notch down from the other two.)
IOWA (3-1) @ WISCONSIN (2-2)
People wrote off Wisconsin too early. Sure, Mertz has done plenty to cause the offense to self-destruct repeatedly, but the defense remains legit and this game may be the only thing preventing Wisconsin from finishing the regular season with an 8-game winning streak.
It’s interesting that the Fancy Stats disagree. SP+ still has Wisconsin at #6(!) but FEI prefers Iowa (#10 vs. #19).
Iowa F+ #16 (#10 FEI; #19 SP+)
F+ Offense: #78
F+ Defense #3
Wisconsin F+ #8 (#19 FEI; #6 SP+)
F+ Offense: #72
F+ Defense #2
SP+ predicted score: ~24-15 Wisconsin
Vegas predicted score: ~20-17 Wisconsin
Where the Fancy Stats agree is that the #2 & #3 defenses according to F+ going up against the #78 & #72 offenses. YIKES! Is the o/u on punts in this game 14.5? Neither team is likely to drive 70+ yards multiple times for scores, but the defenses may set up the offenses for a few 30-40 yard drives for a score, which could be the difference in the game.
Only Minniesoda can do much about declaring the winner of this game the West Division champion, but I expect the Gophers to lose a couple down the stretch. Now let’s get to the real division.
MICHIGAN (4-0) @ MICHIGAN STATE (4-0)
Did we ever expect before the season started that this game would determine the B1G’s last remaining undefeated team? I suppose that kinda makes this like the Squid Game finale among B1G teams.
Michigan F+ #4 (#4 FEI; #7 SP+)
F+ Offense: #10
F+ Defense: #10
Michigan State F+ #22 (#26 FEI; #21 SP+)
F+ Offense: #51
F+ Defense: #14
SP+ predicted score: ~27-23 Michigan
Vegas predicted score: ~28-23 Michigan
The Fancy Stats certainly prefer Michigan. They have Sparty as barely a Top 25 team (more a peer of Nebraska [F+ #24] than Michigan). Their offense is mediocre at best (51st) and their strength, the defense, is still inferior to Michigan’s (14th vs 10th). I definitely expect Michigan to come away with the victory, but hey...you never know which way the winds of Sparty are swirling.
PENN STATE (2-2) @ OHIO STATE (4-0)
Man, in other contexts I would have enjoyed watching Illinois knock off PSU. But not this week; the week before they play OSU. Would’ve loved to have PSU come to Columbus looking good and ranked in single digits. Darn it! That would have made a spectacular day of B1G football, feeling like a pair of East Division semi-finals and a West Division championship…all on the same day in October! Instead…PSU is apparently playing Illinois in the Big House on Saturday.
Penn State F+ #11 (#15 FEI; #10 SP+)
F+ Offense: #48
F+ Defense: #6
Ohio State F+ #2 (#3 FEI; #1 SP+)
F+ Offense: #1
F+ Defense: #25
SP+ predicted score: ~35-21 Ohio State
Vegas predicted score: ~39-21 Ohio State
When OSU has the ball, it’s strength vs. strength (#1 offense vs. #6 defense), and when PSU has the ball it’s relative weakness vs. relative weakness (#48 offense vs. #25 defense [PSU was the #28 offense before the Illinois game and dropped 20 spots…which is a significant drop in computer rankings!]). With Clifford ailing and Mustipher out, PSU has become underwhelming. This could get ugly.
…but still not be as ugly as will be the all-scarlet color rush. (blech!) At least the helmets won’t also be scarlet.
October 27th, 2021 at 2:44 PM ^
I'm starting to get really confident about the game this weekend. Someone, please take me down a peg.
October 27th, 2021 at 2:50 PM ^
MSU has covered something like 10 of the last 12 years. It's in East Lansing. They're coming off a bye week with nothing but hatred and time to prepare for their super bowl. Even their shit teams always play Michigan tough and this year is not a shit team. Michigan will be lucky to escape this weekend with a W even if the fancy stats say they "should" on paper.
October 27th, 2021 at 2:52 PM ^
MSU is going to roast our corners over and over. They have not two but three incredible WRs -- Nailor, Reed, and Mosley. We can't and won't keep up with all of them. Big chunk plays through the air will force our safeties back, giving KWIII another game for the Heisman resume as he piles up big yards on the ground in the second half.
MSU 38-10
October 27th, 2021 at 2:59 PM ^
Now you got me worried, Boutros.
October 27th, 2021 at 3:21 PM ^
I could have done without reading that. You did a little too good of a job and now I'm a nervous bird. I did have wings last night tho.
October 27th, 2021 at 3:29 PM ^
I said take me down a (singular) peg, BB. This is too much. Boost our spirits a little bit to make up for what you've done.
October 27th, 2021 at 3:36 PM ^
Thorne has been flying under the radar, he's not a bad QB. Hopefully Ojabo and Hutchinson and the boys can make his day long and painful.
October 27th, 2021 at 4:18 PM ^
That 'high powered' MUS offense put up 254 total yards vs. Nebraska at home, and are coming off 241 yards against that powerhouse Indiana squad. Your not scaring anyone but the sheep on here.
Michigan wins comfortably.
October 27th, 2021 at 6:34 PM ^
Back away from the ledge. This isn't your 2020 secondary.
Nebraska held them to 12 yards and 0 1st downs in the second half.
This vaunted offense scored 13 point against Nebraska and Indiana. They held KWIII to 61 yards and 84 respectively. If they can hold him in check so can we.
Also against Wisconsin and (I believe) Northwestern we pressured the QB on every single passing attempt. Thorne is good when given time but we won't get it against us. They are 110th in sacks on obvious passing downs.
Statistically we are pretty even on a yards per play
- offense MSU 6.5 to UM 6.3
- defense MSU 4.8 to UM 4.6
But we are a ball control offense and average 15 more offensive plays per gave. All things being equal that is 75 more yards then them. We had 90 plays against Northwestern against 55.
Their only hope is big plays and we don't give many up. Saturday's miscue was the only play above 50 yards we've given up all year.
Feel better?
October 27th, 2021 at 2:54 PM ^
Remind yourself how MSU has found ways to win this type of game this season and over the last 10 or so years. Remind yourself that UM routinely finds ways to lose this type of game over the last 15 or so years. Remind yourself that there are now 2 horrible ref crews in the B1G (Whatever that crew was from the UM/Nebraska game was also the crew for Ill/PSU, and of course John O’Neill). Remind yourself that all the media pressure is on UM and Harbaugh while none is on Tucker or MSU. Remind yourself that UM corners have yet to be tested and people are arguing about whether or not McNamara deserves a cyan, and it’s not a debate that can be laughed off as ridiculous.
Feel worse yet?
October 27th, 2021 at 3:33 PM ^
Yes, this is doing the trick. Thank you.
October 27th, 2021 at 2:57 PM ^
I'll give it a go...
Kenneth Walker is a very good RB who has been bottled up against the two defenses MSU has faced with a pulse...shit wait.
Sparty is 0-2 at home against Harbaugh...wait, no, I'll get it.
They have the 11th worst pass defense in the nation...this isn't going well.
Panasiuk is still a dirty player and deserves to lose...true.
Ok, here's one. Their WRs are pretty good to very good and could give Michigan's CBs fit, especially if Don Brown is the DC.
There ya go.
October 27th, 2021 at 5:27 PM ^
I just minutes ago saw something interesting regarding staee's backup QB:
It'll be interesting to see how Tucker will handle the discipline over this, as 2nd string QB Russo and his lawyer plea-bargained down to a guilty plea of reckless driving, after pleading not guilty to the OWI (even though he had a blood alcohol reading nearly twice the legal limit).
"Russo’s attorney Brian Jeffries and a Michigan State team spokesman didn’t immediately respond to messages seeking coming from MLive on Wednesday afternoon. Russo’s status with the program remains unclear."
BTW, their apparent 3rd string QB hasn't taken a snap all season.
October 27th, 2021 at 3:33 PM ^
Taking it one step further, Michigan has never lost to the buckeyes when the Braves have made the World Series:
- 1991: 31-1 Michigan
- 1992: 13-13 tie
- 1995: 31-23 Michigan
- 1996: 13-9 Michigan
- 1999: 24-17 Michigan
- 2021: ????
Granted, John Cooper was the coach of all those osu teams, but I'm liking the trend!
October 27th, 2021 at 4:01 PM ^
It was pretty funny in 1991 to see OSU intercept the 2 point conversion attempt. Return it all the way to the one and fumble it. The oddest part was when our kicker picked up the ball in the end zone and ran it out, only to backtrack and be tackled for a 1 point safety.
/s
October 27th, 2021 at 3:37 PM ^
Not the game I had in mind, but I will 100% take it. I'm assuming the Braves are in the World Series this year? I actively avoid baseball talk with every fiber of my being, considering it is the worst of all the sports.
October 27th, 2021 at 4:00 PM ^
Our unwavering devotion to kicking FGs means the sparts will only need one or two big plays.
October 28th, 2021 at 9:05 AM ^
If we can kick 15 FGs I will be happy.
October 27th, 2021 at 6:55 PM ^
All of the computer models I've seen range from a pick'em to Michigan by less than one score.
How comfortable would you be mid-4th quarter if MSU is within a few points?
October 27th, 2021 at 2:46 PM ^
Missed opportunity to go full broadcast graphic title of “B1G slate this weekend”
October 27th, 2021 at 2:47 PM ^
Judgement Day.
October 27th, 2021 at 3:08 PM ^
I'd be amazed if OSU-PSU is that close.
The Fighting Frames Janklins look horrible.
October 27th, 2021 at 3:34 PM ^
OSU has yet to play against a top defense, and Janklin said that Sean Clifford will be 100% healthy by game time. So, I think it's highly unlikely that it's close, but I'll be interested to see what happens Saturday night. That is, as long as we win. Otherwise, I'll just turn off the TV and work on the lawn.
October 27th, 2021 at 4:13 PM ^
Frames thinks his team is playing Illinois again.
October 27th, 2021 at 7:00 PM ^
He was confused, that Bielema stench must still be hanging around campus
October 28th, 2021 at 9:07 AM ^
Bielema is probably still hanging around the buffet
October 27th, 2021 at 4:14 PM ^
5 years ago Penn State loses by more than 5 touchdowns with only 191 yards of total offense.
3 weeks later they beat OSU.
Stranger things have happened.
October 27th, 2021 at 5:20 PM ^
*Nittany Janklins
October 27th, 2021 at 3:24 PM ^
Upvoted for "Triumvirate of Hate"!
It will be a fun weekend, but I can't see PSU hanging tough after the first quarter. Unless they were sandbagging against Illinois, that defense has totally imploded. I do expect both the units to be slightly improved from Illinois because, jeez, they can't be that bad again, can they?
They can. Frames is still trying to beat Illinois and thinks they're coming to Ann Arbor. Imagine his surprise when he steps off the bus into a Cesspool! His team will follow his lead - totally unprepared and thinking about other things.
Sure do hope that Frames new agent has a lead on something other than LSU. That finish coming the Nittany Lions' way looks ugly...
October 27th, 2021 at 4:03 PM ^
Correct. Stroud has 19 straight touchdown drives, throwing 14 scores and no interceptions over the last 3 B1G games. PSU couldn't get 3 yards in 6 attempts in OT.
He won't keep this up but this should be a slaughter.
October 27th, 2021 at 3:45 PM ^
Wisconsin's going to finish the season 7-5 and #2 to all the fancy stat people and I'll never understand why
October 27th, 2021 at 7:17 PM ^
I'm definitely a "Wisconsin is better than their record" (and Iowa is worse) believer and I know there's a lot of parity this year in the #4-30 range but damn, I can't believe they're still top 7-8 with that offense. Maybe Bill Connelly forgot to carry the 1 at some point.
October 27th, 2021 at 3:54 PM ^
Guessing Franklin loses some negotiating leverage for his next contract this weekend. Sure its speculation. Sometimes that is what we do here.
October 27th, 2021 at 5:23 PM ^
Franklin better sign a new deal before Friday.
...if it's not already too late.
October 27th, 2021 at 7:05 PM ^
Assuming Penn State loses Saturday, Franklin will be:
8-10 in his last 18 Big Ten games
17-17 on the road while at Penn St
Right now, Harbaugh is:
12-6 in his last 18 Big Ten games
19-10 on the road while at Michigan
Harbaugh obviously hasn't lit the world on fire, but it's been mostly hot-seat talk for him the last few years while Franklin is mentioned for every top tier job. The dual narratives are pretty baffling. Do they really hinge on that one block FG five years ago?
October 27th, 2021 at 4:34 PM ^
I suppose that kinda makes this like the Squid Game finale among B1G teams.
YES.
October 27th, 2021 at 5:00 PM ^
Sparty has played some really crappy teams this year. The only ones with a pulse on offense put up some big numbers on their defense. See W Kentucky and their almost 500 yard passing. And the only teams with a pulse on defense stonewalled them.
Of course it's a rivalry and it's in E Lansing and anything can happen but this one should not be a difficult win.
October 27th, 2021 at 5:14 PM ^
Frames showing up to the Big House this weekend to play Illinois.
October 27th, 2021 at 6:13 PM ^
My winners are Michigan, OSU, and WI
October 27th, 2021 at 6:58 PM ^
I think the variance in Maryland has to do with whether a formula emphasizes points per drive vs yards per play. Since Maryland has an explosive offense and ok-ish defense, efficiency ratings still like them. However, their turnovers have led to a lot of oppositional points. I know that SP+ ratings tend to treat turnovers as somewhat random or at least non-predictive, which is why Maryland is higher and Iowa is lower.
Minnesota losing to Bowling Green - a MAC team with no other FBS wins - then winning the West would be very on-brand for the West. See also: Northwestern losing to Akron
October 27th, 2021 at 7:15 PM ^
MSU always makes me nervous
October 28th, 2021 at 9:38 AM ^
Excellent post. Real (rationally adjusted) data as opposed to raw stats against inferior opponents. Reasonable interpretation.