Big Rain Coming for the ND Game + Who is Going?

Submitted by xtramelanin on October 25th, 2019 at 5:37 AM

Mates,

So the good news is that for the last day they aren't talking about having any thunder/lightning in the forecast.  The bad news is that we have gone from rain or showers all the way to 1"-2" of rain - that's a big time front coming through. Here's what it says:

Saturday

Rain, mainly after 3pm. Patchy fog before 9am. High near 56. Light east northeast wind becoming east southeast 6 to 11 mph in the morning. Winds could gust as high as 18 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

Saturday Night

Rain before 8pm, then showers after 8pm. The rain could be heavy at times. Low around 50. East wind 14 to 16 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between 1 and 2 inches possible.

Further discussion here:  widespread rain developing 18-00z Sunday with trowal maintaining rain through Saturday evening/night.... supporting heavy rainfall even with thunderstorms likely hard to come by[.]

Rain will overspread Se Mi from south to north Saturday afternoon and early evening and persist through Sat night. The period of peak rainfall intensity is expected to occur between 7 PM and 5 AM. The combination of weak instability and high moisture content will support widespread rainfall amounts in excess of a half inch. Probabilities that total rainfall amounts between one and two inches have been rising the last few model trends.

Bottom line:  dress appropriately

Image result for picture of kid in mask and swim fins

Secondly, who is going to the game?   Rain or no rain, I am hoping for a great one under the lights.  

Go Blue!

XM

jbuch002

October 25th, 2019 at 9:50 AM ^

Some questions asked here about "fronts" and the possibility that it will shift lessening the chances of the forecast deluge during the game.

The weather features affecting the forecast are three systems none of them actually passing through SE MI on game day. The first is a High Pressure system that is passing though MI TODAY W to E. The second is a system over the plains moving from SW to NE - it is providing funneling action to the third tropical system moving from the SW (currently still over the Gulf of Mexico) to the NE (will be over the Ohio Valley region on Saturday). It is this system that is the source of the heavy rains that are forecasted for SE MI.

As usual for SE MI weather forecasting and why it is so hard to forecast this region, it is right on the edge of forecast rain amounts exceeding an inch so, yes, there could be less rain than that of the forecast deluge in Ann Arbor that all the weather Apps are talking about. When you time lapse the NWS surface analysis maps, you can watch the rain areas move from S to N and fully engulf SE MI by 8pm. However, if you overlay these maps with forecast precip amounts, Ann Arbor sits in the < 1 inch region. Move to Detroit Metro and its in the 1-2 inch band. It's hair splitting and weather forecasters won't do that. They are going to almost always go worst case. So, yeah, there's a chance it won't be a monsoon; there is no chance it won't rain.

If you are tailgating, what I recommend is that you get a good radar APP on your phone and watch rain movement on that App and act accordingly. BTW, I'm betting that the U will preemptively close golf course parking. That being the case, expect Ann Arbor traffic and the hunt for parking to be a mad house by 3pm.  

 

skurnie

October 25th, 2019 at 11:47 AM ^

Golf Course decision is expected by 9am per their Twitter. My prediction is that 98% it will be closed.

There are still MSU and OSU at home and if the course gets F-ed up tomorrow it's likely too late to do anything about it and the risk is they shut it down for the year. 

uofmchris1

October 25th, 2019 at 10:02 AM ^

I want to believe that Harbaugh has the Ann Arbor fire dept. blasting our QB, RB and WR's with a firehose in practice this week, but instead, he's probably  got the team practicing inside in shorts and no pads. Hope I am wrong.

MGoBlue96

October 25th, 2019 at 10:39 AM ^

On the flipside the rain might indirectly help UM in the Wisky/OSU game, looks like the rain will be starting there right around gametime and might level the playing field some in that game for Wisky. 

Pepper Brooks

October 25th, 2019 at 12:49 PM ^

Heavy rain forecast at the horseshoe during gametime, and rain at the landfill during that shitty game.  I hope this gives Wiscy and Sparty a better chance at winning.  (I nearly threw up in my mouth as I typed that last part.)

Bando Calrissian

October 25th, 2019 at 1:03 PM ^

Have a family wedding we can't miss. Same family last year scheduled a wedding for a game day for another sibling. Thank god they have no more kids to marry off. Trying to decide if I want to go hardcore and watch it on DVR when I get home without knowing what happened, but I have a feeling there's no way someone won't tell me what's happening.

Honestly, think it might be for the better. Though if this thing got delayed a bunch and kept going after midnight or something, that would be OK, too.