Baungardner predicts 14-10 win

Submitted by Eye of the Tiger on

Basically he says it should be a defensive struggle, but that our defense is better than theirs. The other interesting bit is this:

Of all the tweaks Harbaugh made this offseason, the most important might be how he calls offense in 2018. If it's the Harbaugh who was logical and creative when necessary in 2015 and 2016, Michigan's going to be fine. If it's the 2017 version that tried to do too many things, U-M will get overwhelmed by an active defense in a road environment. Michigan's offense wins or loses this game. Bottom line. 

(Link is to FREEP, if anyone still cares about that.) 

https://www.freep.com/story/sports/college/university-michigan/wolverines/2018/08/30/michigan-notre-dame-scouting-report-prediction/1136952002/

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UgLi Eric

August 30th, 2018 at 11:56 AM ^

Maybe I can bridge the gap here. 

Champeen. I actually agree with you. I'm a longtime fan, and while I'm not quite grown old, I have had 37 years of fandom. My very late take is that I am excited and believe this team has the right coaching, motivation, and culture to win above expectations. We have fixed most of the problems and despite a few kinks, we have young talent budding behind even our weakest links (I won't say tackles). 

I think we lose 1 game. Maybe 2. But if we lost 3-4 this year because of the luck of the opposition or fluke injuries or ref bias, and here is where I disagree with you, it isn't the end of the world. I live in the world where we are loyal fans to our true coaches. Bo, Carr, to a lesser extent, Moeller. Unless there is a major wrongdoing, or gross incompetence, you keep your 8-10 wins a year coach who is from our coaching tree, is an alum, and cares about the integrity and quality of our program. 

When I was a student I kept telling my dad that we need to fire Lloyd Carr if he doesn't use his offensive talent better. I used to not sleep when A-Train fumbled and blame the coaching when we couldn't win by holding a lead. He always told me to wait until I'm a bit older and l will be able to take the bad with the good. 

Now I am now my dad.

Joined: 10/09/2016

MGoPoints: 14196

Hotel Putingrad

August 30th, 2018 at 9:46 AM ^

I think we come out throwing, TD passes to Gentry and Bell in the first quarter. DPJ returns a punt for a score right before the half. Higdon tenderizes them in the second half, and the defense gets a late score.

31-14, good guys.

Home field is good for one score, as is the Luck of the Irish.

Joined: 12/10/2014

MGoPoints: 212732

Blue in PA

August 30th, 2018 at 9:55 AM ^

Hoping that our run game is a pleasant surprise..... we get up on them early and control the ball, dominate time of possession.

27-13 Blue

Joined: 08/26/2014

MGoPoints: 5140

jamesjosephharbaugh

August 30th, 2018 at 9:57 AM ^

i think they mentioned making the playbook simpler during the offseason, so maybe doing too many things is in the past.

Joined: 10/17/2016

MGoPoints: 495

mitchewr

August 30th, 2018 at 11:15 AM ^

I was listening to WTKA this morning with Sam and in their last hour they were talking about the O-Line and the "simplification" that's taken place under Warinner. They said that last year, the O-Line would have different protection sets that were virtually identical, yet because each set was part of a different play, they had totally different names and calls for each set.

Apparently, they're started just calling sets that are the same thing the same name, even if they come on a different play. Which makes total sense if you think about it.Why have a million different names for the same thing? I'd be confused too!

Joined: 08/29/2016

MGoPoints: 13774

michgoblue

August 30th, 2018 at 10:11 AM ^

Holy crap this game needs to get here already!  I have been refreshing MGoBlog pretty much hourly since Brian dropped "The Story."  

I am completely torn between thinking that we are going to be insanely good and thinking that we are going to lost to ND and end up around 9-3.

My reasons for optimism:

1.  Last year, we won 8 games and ALL OF OUR LOSSES featured significant playing time for John O'Korn.  If every aspect of the offense were identical other than swapping JOK for Shea, that has to be worth 1-2 wins right there, especially given that all but one of our losses (including OSU) were close games.  Even if Shea goes down, this year's version of Peters would be a big step up from JOK.

2.  The OL - I know, Brian's preview of the tackle position was scary, but as a whole, our line promises to be decent.  Our interior 3 are SOLID, and at least 1 of our two tackles should be at worst average.  Every team other than OSU, Bama, Wisco and Clemson has at least 1-2 question marks on their line.  I think that simplifying the line calls (which we have done), combined with Warriner, should result in enough improvement to get us to "competent" on the OL.  No, it won't be like the M lines of the past, but I do expect decent, which is a massive improvement from last year.  also, the threat of having a QB who can actually, you know, throw the ball (to our team, not the other team) should alleviate some of the pressure that the line will face.  

3.  Even with the Black injury, our receivers should be better than last year.  Soph DPJ > Frosh DPJ (freshmen receivers suck); Soph Nico > whatever Crawford was doing.  Also, while he is undoubtedly a weird dude, Sharknado has a good track record as a WR coach.  Sharknado > no receiver coach.  

That said, there is still a ton of youth on this team, and playing in South Bend, at night, against a top-ranked ND, that features a dominant D line, in the opening game, did I say at night, and on the road, scares the crap out of me.

Joined: 11/16/2009

MGoPoints: 32198

DJMich23

August 30th, 2018 at 10:14 AM ^

Anyone else a tad worried about Wimbush's scrambling ability? Last year Barret/Haskins and even PSU's QB broke some relatively long runs due to a lack of containment and perhaps some over aggression on UM's defense.

As elite as Michigan's defense has been, they did seem to give up some long runs against athletic qb's like Wimbush last year. People seem to be glossing over that. Overall though, Don Brown has done an outstanding job handling the spread and mobile quarterbacks in totality.

Joined: 11/07/2012

MGoPoints: 1818

Mr Grainger

August 30th, 2018 at 10:30 AM ^

That's my biggest concern (that and turnovers). But Barret and McSorley could also complete a pass. Hopefully, M's defense is able to limit Wimbush's runs (he'll probably get a few) and force him to beat them throwing. With his shaky arm and our stout passing D we should be able to shut that down.

If Michigan doesn't turn the ball over, it wins.

I think this one is close for much of the night, but the good guys pull away late and win, something like 27-17.

Joined: 06/26/2015

MGoPoints: 9518

WolvinLA2

August 30th, 2018 at 12:31 PM ^

I'm a little worried about it, but it's really the only thing I'm worried about offensively.  As the other guy said, McSorley has great passing ability and had Barkley so we had to focus on their two main abilities, leaving scrambling more open.  Same with OSU.  

It sounds like ND won't have a great running back out there and Wimbush is not an elite thrower, meaning we'll be able to hang back and shadow him.  We had to pressure McSorley because if we gave him time he'd pick us apart.  We don't have to pressure Wimbush as much since he's not a great passer, and honestly I think our pass rush will be better this year, despite losing Hurst.  

So although Wimbush scrambling is a bit of a concern, it's not a huge one and if that's how they're going to move the ball regularly against us, Wimbush isn't making it through the game.

Joined: 11/13/2009

MGoPoints: 58189

4th and Go For It

August 30th, 2018 at 10:18 AM ^

I can't see Notre Dame putting more than 17 points up on offense and even that seems like a stretch vs. this defense.  Let's assume Michigan can at least run the ball somewhat consistently as they did late last year. If Shea is Brandon Peters pre-Wisconsin + the ability to evade a few sacks and hit a deep ball or two I have to imagine we can score 20+ without it being too much of a stretch. W/L might hang on  turnovers and special teams here - if we can avoid costly turnovers (pick 6, very short fields for ND) and punt decently I think Michigan has the edge by a touchdown or more.  24-16 Michigan wins.

Joined: 08/04/2017

MGoPoints: 455

Ali G Bomaye

August 30th, 2018 at 10:21 AM ^

The 2017 offense had first-time starters at QB (for most of the year), RB, both WRs, both TEs, and at 4/5 of the offensive line spots. Putting it another way, Mason Cole and Khalid Hill were the only returning starters. It makes sense that it would look like the 2017 offense was trying to do too many things, especially with the revolving door at QB, because they were struggling to learn the basics.

We shouldn't have the same problem in 2018, particularly with Drevno and Frey gone. Harbaugh and Hamilton have worked together plenty before and should be on the same wavelength, and virtually everybody has starting experience.

Joined: 07/08/2008

MGoPoints: 17703

Salinger

August 30th, 2018 at 10:30 AM ^

13-7 Michigan.

Offense will be clunky for large stretches of the game. Defense will be stout throughout. ND on offense last and throws a desperation heave to try and get within striking distance. Said heave is picked off by David Long. Ball game.

Edit: I predict one FG of 50+ yards

Joined: 01/11/2011

MGoPoints: 5409

BrewCityBlue

August 30th, 2018 at 10:56 AM ^

38-13 M and they are lucky to get 13. Everyone will be gleefully talking about this crazy Shea guy who shows an ability to play the qb position capably and remind us all that it is possible to enjoy life again.

Joined: 09/07/2009

MGoPoints: 2336

mitchewr

August 30th, 2018 at 11:20 AM ^

Shea's still a question mark, along with the O-Line which it appears the tackle spots haven't really been addressed at all, mostly because there's just not much we can do about the tackles.

I'm not saying a giant leap can't happen, I'm just saying it's a big leap to go from 105th offense to top 30s+.

I think it will come down to our offense's ability to 

  1. Not turn the ball over
  2. Sustain long drives down the field.

We're not going to win this game if our defense is on the field trying to bail out the team for most of the game.

Joined: 08/29/2016

MGoPoints: 13774

huntmich

August 30th, 2018 at 12:03 PM ^

Someone did an S&P+ analysis that showed that if we had the benefit of Shea last year we would have gone 10-2 in the regular season. This year, we are more experienced, we have a better O-Line coach, and a more streamlined play-calling system. I think a jump to the 30s in terms of offense is not out of the question.

Joined: 10/18/2015

MGoPoints: 18173

WolvinLA2

August 30th, 2018 at 12:40 PM ^

Wait - you don't think ND questions on offense?  They lose their 5 best players (plus the RB who was supposed to start) and their returning starter QB played pretty mediocre last season and was a question mark to even be the starter this year.  I think they have a lot more questions than we do.  If Dexter Williams is out, they have one RB on the roster who has carried the football in college, Tony Jones.  We have a physical defense, so asking him to play the whole game won't happen.  i think they have a lot of questions on offense, and those will be answered in a sad way against this defense.

Joined: 11/13/2009

MGoPoints: 58189

Ty Butterfield

August 30th, 2018 at 8:01 PM ^

Right score but ND wins 14-10. Running QBs always kill Michigan. Wimbush will do just enough with his feet to win. 

Joined: 09/07/2009

MGoPoints: -81685