Member for

14 years 6 months
Points
4188.00

Recent Comments

Date Title Body
That was actually the 2012…

That was actually the 2012 game against SC not the 2017 one. All I remember is blowing a huge lead and Brandon Peters sliding a yard short of the first down during our comeback attempt.

As a Falcons fan, 28-3 is…

As a Falcons fan, 28-3 is certainly no joke to me...

Fun Fact! Michigan had a…

Fun Fact! Michigan had a transitive loss in 2007 to Georgia Southern because they beat App State that year. Also probably not a fun fact really.

He's referring to the FTA…

He's referring to the FTA/FGA numbers. So the rate at which opponents get to the line, not their FT% once they are there

Did you read the write up?…

Did you read the write up? He never coached Jackson as a QB coach 

We did beat State in Ann…

We did beat State in Ann Arbor in 2019. But the East Lansing part of your statement is correct.

He's talking about keeping…

He's talking about keeping JJ McCarthy, the QB recruit btw. 

I don't think you can say…

I don't think you can say that about the PSU game though. They absolutely got punched in the mouth and could have rolled over. But they didn't and almost pulled it out.

If you're going to be an…

If you're going to be an overly pedantic downer, at least pick a mediocre bowl game that Harbaugh has actually been to such as the Outback or Citrus. He's never taken us to the Alamo Bowl.

I have no idea how someone…

I have no idea how someone could look at Devin's production and Shane's production and conclude Devin should have stayed at WR. Jeremy Gallon (the most underappreciated WR in Michigan history) and Funchess was good enough at receiver. Gardner should never have moved there

I'm not as sure it's as…

I'm not as sure it's as weird as Michigan fans think. Going by end of year SP+ rankings, the higher ranked team is 10-2 in the Dantonio era. The exceptions being the punt game and the OKorn game. Usually the better team wins. 

We beat PSU in 2015 and 2016

We beat PSU in 2015 and 2016

2003 would still be the…

2003 would still be the better year as we did beat all 3 rivals AND won the Big Ten. 

That's probably not true…

That's probably not true. Had we won, we would have been 11-1 and in a 3 way tie with Penn St and Ohio St. While I think we would have had an argument, I doubt we get voted ahead of OSU after losing to them so they would have gone to Indy.

Yeah I think Brian just…

Yeah I think Brian just misremembered that one. We finished 27th that year I'm pretty sure (a much more fair ranking for a 5 loss team that was only blown out once)

2020 and 2018 are not in the…

2020 and 2018 are not in the same ball park recruiting wise. 2020 is going to conservatively end up somewhere in the 12th-14th range. It has 5 more commits and a higher average player rank to 2018. It probably isn't as good a class as 2019 was or 2021 is shaping to be, but it's definitely a solid class. 

Last year is a great example…

Last year is a great example of this where they dominated against us to the tune of...94 total yards. Or in 2017 when they scored 14 points and had 252 total yards. Their OL has sucked hard the last 2 years and their production afainst us has matched that.

Was a "culture problem" the…

Was a "culture problem" the reason that Wilton Speight threw a terrible pick against OSU in 2016? Or cause the refs to call a dumb biased game against us? Or did a "culture problem" cause John O'Korn to miss a wide open receiver in the 2017 game? OSU has had success over the last 20 years that only Alabama can claim to surpass. Michigan had it's worse 7 year stretch in 50 years. That's why we struggle to beat OSU, not because of some nebulous "culture problem" that didn't seem to exist when Michigan was regularly stocking NFL talent on it's roster. 

Predicting our DEs to be …

Predicting our DEs to be "just guys" is pretty pessimistic. Paye played a lot last year and was a good player and Hutchinson definitely flashed. Danna would have been drafted last year. It won't be healthy Gary/Winovich good, but there is a lot to be excited about at that spot. 

 

Is this everyone's 1st…

Is this everyone's 1st season with the blog or something? There is always a bit of a lull 2-3 weeks before the season which is followed by massive content the week before and full coverage during the season. The recruiting series being the bridge is not new either. It goes back to at least 2013.  

I confess I skimmed the…

I confess I skimmed the hockey section and was very confused about your excitement over a woefully undersized 4 in basketball. 

I agree with almost…

I agree with almost everything you've said, but I think Auburn just edges us out for most difficult road. They play in the SEC West AND get UGA as their crossover game. 

Zavier's FTs weren't really…

Zavier's FTs weren't really an issue last year. He got off to a bit of a rough start, but he shot 75% in conference games. 

Franz is further along his…

Franz is further along his development curve when compared with his brother. Pretty much no NBA guys were talking about Mo before he signed, whereas Franz is already getting some chatter. I wouldn't expect an All-American season, but I'd be shocked if 4 of the 5 starters aren't Franz, X, Livers, and Teske.

If that's the starting 5,…

If that's the starting 5, flip Livers and Franz. Franz is a pure wing unlike his brother and Livers can and has played the 4. I tend to think Johns is going to start instead of Brooks however. 

If you thought the game was…

If you thought the game was more pure at any point in time, you're just being hopelessly naive. Teams and colleges have been cheating since before the NCAA was formed. 

I'll admit that Izzo does…

I'll admit that Izzo does develop guys better than that comment implied, but using two 5 stars who both stayed 4 years in Dawson and Payne does not make the argument that you think it does. 

We absolutely need to…

We absolutely need to improve with respect to OSU, but we beat MSU and PSU by a combined score of 63-14. Harbaugh is 3-1 against PSU and 2-2 against MSU with one being...that game. Don't let the wet fart of the end of the season blind you to what happened before it. 

I mean to be fair, it's not…

I mean to be fair, it's not like Gonzaga ever does well come Tourney time. I mean to find their last Final Four, you have to go all the way back to...checks notes...2017 

I would assume this refers…

I would assume this refers to the 2016 defense which legitmately held up all year and should have been enough to beat OSU if not for turnovers

Disagree that JB's offenses…

Disagree that JB's offenses dont work against zones. I'm gonna wager that if you look up our stats against zone defenses prior to this year , they were really good. It's really hard to beat a zone with only one above average outside shooter. 

As a Falcons fan, I…

As a Falcons fan, I appreciate the Saints for drafing sonmany Buckeyes. Makes it easier to concentrate my hate

We're fans, we're inherently…

We're fans, we're inherently irrational. 

Logically I do not think that Gary or Higdon did anything wrong.

Emotionally I just am not gonna feel as positively about them as Chase. If you feel differently, more power to you. 

I'll never blame anybody for…

I'll never blame anybody for putting their future earnings first to not play in a relative meaningless game. However, to be honest, I can't lie and say I'll look back on the legacies of Gary and Higdon w/ the same fondness as Chase. 

I know most on this board…

I know most on this board don't shift to basketball mode until after the season, but I'm personally hoping for a 330 kick as basketball has a game at noon that day.

There is actually a source…

There is actually a source that tracks inside the 40. Bill C's advanced stat pages keep track of "points per scoring opportunity" which is inside the opposition 40 yard line. He hasn't updated for this week's games yet, but coming into this week,  Michigan was at 4.63 pts per trip inside the 40, which is 67th in the country. So it is definitely something we can improve upon. 

Interestingly enough we actually struggle with that on defense as well (4.58 ppt, 74th), but I wager that works out fine as we don't give up a ton of scoring opportunities. 

I've seen this Alabama worry…

I've seen this Alabama worry before and I just dont get it. CFP picks are inherently political. The SEC got 2 teams in because OSU had 2 losses. You're already probably leaving out 2 P5 conferences with ND getting in. No way they leave out 3 if there is a 1 loss conference title winner. Especially if it's a 7 pt road loss to a top 10 team.

 

I will admit I think Oklahoma might be a much more legitimate worry, so I think we only 96% control our own destiny vs 100%

He actually is keeping the…

He actually is keeping the pre-season projections in all year this year. He said that they make the model more accurate if there is some preseason projection left. 

I think looking at S&P+ as a…

I think looking at S&P+ as a ratings system rather than a ranking system is useful here. Basically S&P+ looked at the play by play of the LSU/Auburn game and says that LSU got ouplayed and was lucky to win. So as a forward looking projection system, it correspondingly downgrades LSU as basically a 3-1 team that got lucky. 

Ranking systems are more based on resume. In that case LSU should be higher because, optics aside, they did win the game. Most polls are (or should be) ranking systems. So us being 6th is great looking forward in S&P+. and I have no problem with being significantly lower in polls because we haven't earned higher based on our resume. 

Wasn't Drevno in charge of…

Wasn't Drevno in charge of recruiting out there? Because honestly that feels like it could definitely be a reason.

MSU at no point in the 2nd…

MSU at no point in the 2nd haf of that game had the ball within one possesion. In fact I dont think it was single digits the entire 2nd half

Michigan had it at the 50 with 55 sec left with a chance to tie.

The two games arent really comparable. Michigan dominated MSU and never was in danger. ND beat us in a relatively even game where they made the plays necessary to win.

Assume an XP is a 98% chance…

Assume an XP is a 98% chance and a 2 pt conversion is 50%. Assume OT is a 50% win probability. 

At 16-24, you either get the 2pt or don't. 
If you get it, then you kick the XP after the next TD and go up 25-24

Odds = .5 of win (.49 + .01 from missing 2nd XP/OT)

If you don't, you go for 2 after the 2nd TD

Odds = .125 of win (.5 *.5  chance/OT)

So assuming you score 2 TDs, you have a 62.5% chance of winning. 

 

If you kick 2 XPs

Odds  = 0.48 of win (.96 + OT)

No football coach will do this, but those are the numbers. 

Downvoting because your…

Downvoting because your score is wrong. ND would go for 2 in this situation so it has to be 25-24 or 27-24. Kicking the XP makes no sesnse

You said this on the…

You said this on the roundtable too, but wasn't it Justin Boren that transferred? I thought Zach just went to OSU from the start

We've played 3 road games…

We've played 3 road games against top 20 teams by my count since Harbaugh got here (2016 OSU, 2017 OSU/PSU) . Literally zero happened with healthy starting QBs. It's entirely possible we lose those games this year, but I don't think Harbaugh's record in those games since we got here is particularly instructive. 

What % of regular posters on

What % of regular posters on this blog dont knoe Bob Ufer? I bet it's a pretty low percentage.

I believe so. They asked

I believe so. They asked Beilein about it in the press conference (specififcally about only playing Poole 2 minutes) and he said with Hamilton taking early TOs and the media TOs, he didn't think the guys needed to come out of the game for breaks. 

I must admit it takes talent

I must admit it takes talent to bitch and complain about coaching after a win to get to Final Four. If this doesn't provide you with pure joy I feel sorry for you and wonder how you can ever enjoy sports. 

So in previous years, we

So in previous years, we sucked at defensively rebounding and defense. I at least understood then why people wouuld suggest 2 bigs in order to address these obvious weaknesses. But we're good at both of those things this year. Why on Earth would John Beilein ruin his offensive spacing in the year he really doesnt need to?

He shoots 39% from 3. He's

He shoots 39% from 3. He's definitely a shooter. More importantly, they should have had him on the baseline trying to finish instead of Tillman and Ward.