lhglrkwg

November 17th, 2023 at 12:43 PM ^

Partridge is a longtime friend of Stalions.

Will be very interesting to hear what Partridge destroyed. Was he helping his buddy out by destroying stuff? Or did he know or have a hunch about what Stallions was up to? I know where I'd bet my dollar at this point

bronxblue

November 17th, 2023 at 12:46 PM ^

This probably happened but I'm always a bit dubious about people suddenly learning about these secret negotiations and offers only after stuff breaks and it's not longer relevant.

I am surprised that the NCAA is leaking this info slowly to the B1G and that UM didn't know until much later.  It does make me question how hard UM did their own internal investigation.

monkeybiz

November 17th, 2023 at 1:39 PM ^

Michigan clearly didn't dig deep enough here. I guess it's natural for an institution to avoid incriminating itself. But now they look silly for all the grandstanding last week when apparently it wasn't too difficult for the NCAA to figure out this scheme/coverup extended beyond Stalions and his buddies. It's not like the NCAA has been working on this for months...

bronxblue

November 17th, 2023 at 2:09 PM ^

Yeah, the lack of internal "self-scouting", so to speak, is jarring.  I do assume they asked Partridge and he lied, and maybe they didn't check his phone or maybe they did and didn't make the connection.  The NCAA is trying to find dirt and maybe has more information than what the school had.  I do suspect this will make Michigan  less likely to fight stuff in the future with such ferocity, which sucks because I'm sure the conference will throw more bullshit at them at some point.

kalamazoo

November 17th, 2023 at 2:11 PM ^

The second sentence is probably most accurate. Admins and even staff members are slow at incriminating themselves!

Michigan would have known who Stalions worked with the most on the staff, may have gathered those computers/files and seen deeper than what they are letting on. Of course it should be ok for Michigan to learn and review/comprehend/confirm data internally (and perhaps with ncaa) before it appears on social media but that is the world we live in.

The main Michigan arguments seemed to be about "due process". It then would allow national championship aspirations to continue. Harbaugh could always leave as he is an independent guy. Big Ten knows this and jumped in to punish now. Plus Petiti wants to make a name for himself. Plus the other Big Ten coaches are not quite frat bros with Harbaugh.

george11

November 17th, 2023 at 12:47 PM ^

So the NCAA's "No Big Deal" about the whole thing is complete Bullshit. They are using the Big Ten to by pass their own rules and procedures to punish Michigan and Harbaugh now instead of waiting on their years long investigation to be completed. What a fucking joke. Getting so fed up with college sports and the toxic environment that it operates in.

ThadMattasagoblin

November 17th, 2023 at 12:47 PM ^

I don't care if Jim Harbaugh, Warde Manuel, and Santa Ono all knew about this. It's still the stupidest fucking scandal. Tennessee had like 20 level 1 violations and had nothing happen to them.

bronxblue

November 17th, 2023 at 12:53 PM ^

The one thing I've heard pretty consistently from people who've worked with NCAA enforcement is that this sharing of information with the conference, and the conference not protecting a league member but instead trying to punish them, is really atypical.  Usually you expect your league to try to protect you - the SEC certainly does - so it's weird to see them all in agreement to punish what is, on paper and in reality, a bullshit scandal of minimal impact.

NJblue2

November 17th, 2023 at 1:04 PM ^

This conference sucks and that's why they should have fought like hell. It's about making the fight as painful for the conference as possible. They overreacted to a bullshit rule break, and the only way to gain any ground is to fight as bitterly as possible. 

It's not win this battle necessarily but to win a war. 

Harbaugh2Kolesar

November 17th, 2023 at 12:55 PM ^

If the NCAA had any integrity, they'd drop the investigation right now.  If Stalions did everything he's accused of, are they really going to do more than punish U-M with a three game head coach suspension? For scouting other teams in-person?

It's not a fishing expedition(or at least shouldn't be).  Pronounce him guilty, say the B1G punishment suffices, and get back to football instead of this circus.  Unless it's gotten to the point where it's all about the clicks...and that may be.

 

MGoGoGo

November 17th, 2023 at 1:15 PM ^

Seriously? 

The NCAA seemingly just learned that a higher level coach in the organization may have destroyed evidence and may have known about the alleged infractions.  There's not a chance in hell that they will drop this without investigating who in the organization knew about Stallions actions and the attempted cover up. Frankly, nor should they. 

I think it's debatable whether what Stallions did is even an infraction at all. And, it's clear that it didn't give Michigan a material advantage or harm its opponents, let alone create a dangerous situation as Pettiti and MSU have ridiculously claimed. I think the 3 game suspension is ridiculous. But, there's no way that the NCAA is going to simply drop the investigation at this point.  

andrewgr

November 17th, 2023 at 1:29 PM ^

Why is it clear that Michigan didn't gain an advantage?  If they weren't getting an advantage, why was was Stalions-- a low-level analyst that had no business being part of the limited number of people allowed on the sidelines-- standing right next to the OC when Michigan's offense was on the field, and right next to the DC when Michigan's defense was on the field?  Michigan was totally okay with him distracting both their coordinators with information that had no impact?  And why were all the other Big10 coaches and ADs so upset, taking the highly unusual step of asking the commissioner to punish Michigan this year?  Please don't stoop to citing conspiracy theories about OSU controlling the conference, or everyone being jealous of Michigan's success.  Over two dozen successful adults (coaches and ADs), from a variety of backgrounds and with a variety of agendas, were all (or almost all) in agreement that Michigan had done something so serious that waiting for an investigation to conclude wouldn't be fair.  If you're trying to claim that all of them lied because OSU told them to, or because they're jealous of Michigan being really good for less than 3 years, you are so far lost in your need to defend Michigan that logic and rationality no longer matter to you.

MGoGoGo

November 17th, 2023 at 1:58 PM ^

The fact that Stalions stood next to other coaches on the sidelines is only proof that he had input to offer the coaches--and likely input concerning opponent's plays. Assuming that decoding opponent's signals (which is legal) was part of his job, that makes sense.  It is not evidence of any infraction.  

Other teams have their opponents signs.  They can be obtained through film or from other prior opponents.  We know this from statements from other coaches and the documents shared between Rutgers, OSU and Purdue with Michigan's signals. Therefore, Michigan did not obtain an unfair competitive advantage from whatever alleged infraction Stalions committed.

Why were the B1G coaches upset?  Well, Pettiti and Haller claim that it's because their players were endangered!!! We know that's bullshit because other teams steal signs and the NCAA has not outlawed it. Has the NCAA turned a blind eye to this dangerous practice?!!

Why would Haller make such a claim then?  Well, it's part of a coordinated campaign to compete against Michigan through all means.  You use "conspiracy theory" as an ad hominem attack on that possibility depsite the fact that there (1) was an outside investigative agency hired by one or more people/teams; (2) a steady drip of news concerning Stalions that effectively maximized the news cycle; and (3) the exaggerated claims of player harm.  Why would the other coaches demand punishment?  Because they all compete with Michigan, for wins and for recruiting talent.  What harms Michigan increases their chances of success. It's not a matter of "jealousy." It's a matter of competition. (Also, I do think that Harbaugh has simply made some enemies).

 

andrewgr

November 17th, 2023 at 4:18 PM ^

What sign stealing can accomplish using film (like the All-22 film, which does not contain any signals, so is useless) and TV broadcasts (which show maybe one or two shots over the course of an entire game of the signals) and on gameday, pales in comparison to what can be accomplished when you record every signal and every corresponding play for 10+ games on a single opponent.

There's the signs that a team uses, which can be changed during the week if it's really necessary.  Then there's the system that is used, which cannot reasonably be changed during the year, because the players need to be able to decode the signals in one or two seconds-- it needs to be almost instinctive.  As an analogy, the system would be the rules of grammar and syntax, while the signals would be the particular words that are used.

If all you know is the signals, then you're not going to gain an advantage when the other team changes their signals.  But if you were able to learn their system, now you've got a simple translation exercise.  You spend the first half recording the signals and corresponding plays, and then, crucially, you plug that data into the system you've deduced through the 10 games' worth of film.  Now you know what all the signals mean in the 2nd half.  As I'm sure you're aware, Michigan was losing to OSU 20-17 at the half, and beating PSU 16-14 at the half, before going on to collectively outscore them 52-6 in the second half.  That could be due to Michigan's greatness, but it's not unreasonable for someone to wonder if they went from not knowing what plays were being called in the first half, to knowing exactly what plays were being called in the 2nd half-- which is the pattern you would expect to see in the scenario I outlined, where you have an accurate model built, and only need to do a correlation exercise on the new signals.

Here's a very oversimplified example of what I'm talking about.  Let's pretend that offense is so simple that you only need to signal in the three pieces of information: the formation, the play, and the check-down play if the QB gets to the line and doesn't like what he sees.  We'll even further oversimplify this and say that there are only 26 plays to choose from.

Now let's assume that a team wants to make it non-trivial for other teams to steal their signals.  They can only make the system so complicated, before it leads to too many mistakes with players getting the calls wrong.  One way to do it would be to have pictures on signs that you can hold up.  There are 3 pieces of information, but every play, you're going to hold up 4 signs; one of them is a dummy, serving no purpose other than to make it confusing for someone trying to decode their signals.  In this system, signals are always read left to right.  To further confuse sign-stealers, when reading the signals, you don't always start at the far left; instead, you start at the position corresponding to the down number, and wrap around to the first spot if you would need to read beyond the 4th spot.  So on 1st down, the dummy signal would be the 4th, because the players would just read 1st=Formation, 2nd=Play, 3rd=CheckDown Play.  But on 3rd down, the 2nd spot would be the dummy, because players would read 3rd=Formation, 4th=Play, and 1st=CheckDown Play.  The final element of the system is that all the players really need to know about the signs being held up is the name of the picture-- for example, is that a picture of a "plane" or an "airplane".  That's their rote memorization, and you can reasonably expect them to memorize all new signals in a week, because for the vast majority of them, they're going to intuitively know the name by looking at the picture.  We stipulated 26 different plays; each one of them corresponds to a letter, A-Z, and that never changes-- it's an inherent part of the system.  So Play A is indicated if an Apple is shown, or if an Airplane is shown, or if Asparagus is shown, etc.  (If you really wanted to get paranoid, you could make sure that like 25% of the pictures use a name that isn't the first or second name that a signal stealer would guess- for example, instead of a P for Plane, or A for Airplane, it's actually U for United, because the team always flies to games on United Airlines.)

You cannot figure that system out using only the sources that teams normally use.  The All-22 Film does NOT show the signals-- it's quite useful for scouting other teams' tendencies, and looking for tells, like if the RB leans further forward on a run play than on a pass play; but it's absolutely useless for signal stealing. The vast majority of the data that you'll have access to is what you collect on game day-- not nearly enough, and not nearly enough time to analyze it.

In contrast, with your database of at least 700 plays (in the case of OSU, where we know of at least 10 games that Stalions bought tickets to), and plenty of time to run statistical analyses (correlation, regression, etc.) or, maybe even better, Machine Learning, you can absolutely expect to figure this entire system out.  The only mildly tricky bit is that a human would need to separate out the first letter of the picture names as its own variable, as statistical methods wouldn't know that the first letter is significant, and even an ML model is quite unlikely to be capable of that with only 700 plays.  But you've got someone who specializes in signal stealing, who probably knows how a lot of systems work; unless the team that uses this hypothetical system has invented a completely new idea, some other team has used the first letter idea, so it's no great stretch of the imagination to believe a human would think to make a separate variable for the first letter.  Everything else is trivial.

That's one way that Michigan could benefit from collecting this data, even when the opposing team changes their signals.  Those other teams are relying on their experience with past signal stealing operations, and believe they just need to change the pictures themselves; but in this case, their entire system is busted, so they would have needed to change how the pictures are decoded, as well.

I obviously have no way of knowing what Stalions did with all the data he collected, but I will say that it's absolutely the first thing I would think of doing.  I'd let several instances of Machine Learning algorithms rip, while I'd use statistical analysis software to try to figure out what I can on my own.  Between the two, with enough data, I should be able t break any system that's simple enough for college players to be using.  On gameday, I know which of the 4 pictures has the formation, which one has the play, and which one has the CheckDown play.  I know that what's important is the first letter of the name of the picture.  30 plays should be sufficient for me to figure out all of the common signals, and at least a few of the less common ones.  No other team is going to be able to do the same thing.

KickassKhakis

November 17th, 2023 at 11:08 PM ^

So, am I to believe that all those coaches believe that connor stallions is actually calling the game for SM & JM?  Absolute unity among them is achieved through self-preservation  
 

This is unprecedented in every way, including M’s stupidity. 
 

And you know the b1g will continue to collude with the ncaa during their investigation 

NJblue2

November 17th, 2023 at 1:00 PM ^

Imagine if they completed an actual investigation before punishment. Maybe they could have figured all this out. 

That's too much faith though that this conference isn't a worthless piece of shit.

RobGoBlue

November 17th, 2023 at 1:04 PM ^

The thing about all of this is that if this was all a plot to make damn sure Michigan had Ohio State's signs... it doesn't make it right, but I get it.

I don't know or care what the numbers were, but everyone steals signs, and this gigantic scandal all to get the signs of a bunch of teams who we were using for OSU practice anyway? Read the Penn State UFR (the only other team worth game-planning for, so far)... all kinds of illusions to practicing for Ohio State. 

This is why I really believed Stalions acted alone, it all just seemed too amateur-ish to have "real" coach involvement. 

Perkis-Size Me

November 17th, 2023 at 1:10 PM ^

My god….just….fuck Connor Stallions. His psychotic, maniacal obsession with this program has potentially torpedoed Michigan’s greatest team in 30 years. He has single-handedly tainted or outright ruined the legacy of every player, coach and staff member who has been a part of this program the last 2-3 years. 

Go get a new hobby, get some therapy, and never set foot in Ann Arbor again. You are persona non grata. And what made this all even worse? You didn’t even have to do it for Michigan to win these games. 

It’s truly amazing, Michigan’s never ending capacity for self destruction and being its own worst enemy. It transcends any one coaching staff. It’s just textbook Michigan. 

MaizeGoBlue

November 17th, 2023 at 1:10 PM ^

Its time to LEAVE the Conference..There is a conspiracy led by Ryan Day and the Day brothers and OSU to take down Michigan because they cant beat them...Its CLEAR the Big Ten is out to get Michigan and its NOT going to end until we leave..I say GET OUT

Eye of the Tiger

November 17th, 2023 at 2:35 PM ^

Yeah, I'm at the point where I want us to clean out anyone who was involved in this. I DO NOT think the scheme added a major competitive advantage, but I DO think the people involved exposed our program to a huge amount of risk and negative PR - and that's not forgivable for me.