B1G BB - Breaking down the logjam for 2nd place - strength of remaining schedules

I'm rooting for 5 or 6 teams at 13-7. 

Go Blue!!

Just win out and let the rest settle itself.

Thanks for putting this together, I have been tracking this for a couple of weeks now, but it has come down to a sprint to the finish.  To me, 2nd place is very reasonable, but 1st is not a foregone conclusion.  To me, the key game is the Maryland v Minnesota game coming up this Thursday.  Maryland on the road against a team needing a big win to keep any post season hopes alive.

It would be an upset, but Maryland has to play us and MSU as well.  A road loss to Minnesota would open the door for a really crazy finish.  So if Maryland wins the regular season title, they will certainly have to earn it.

As for 2nd place (or more important to me is getting a double bye in the BTT), beating Wisconsin is vital.  Maryland pretty much has a double bye locked up and Wisconsin's remaining schedule would lend to a 3-1 finish for a 13-7 record and puts them in a good position for a double bye.  That would only leave 2 spots left for 5-6 teams battling for it. 

For us, winning out would be great, but not likely (road game @OSU and @Maryland).  3-1 down the strech 'should' get us a double bye, but we would need help at that point.  I have no idea have the tie-breakers work but it could get very crazy with multiple teams tied for 2nd (or 1st if Maryland can not close).

We play Wiscy Thursday @ 7

Great post, thanks for putting it together 

Thank you for the work at putting this together. Much appreciated. 

I know this is the longest of long shots (damn those OSU and Ill losses), but any chance all these teams lose at least once and Maryland drops 2 before we face them to end the season for a share of the title?

Thanks for putting this together.  I always like playing around with this seeding predictor.

http://bball.notnothing.net/big10.php?sport=mbb

Go Blue!

What's interesting is that though a Double Bye is obviously more beneficial to winning the B1G tournament, just a single bye gives us an extra shot at a Q1 win and may help our NCAA tournament seeding.

Wisconsin has an easy schedule again...shocking.

never root for sparty, never. 

Wisconsin has the easiest schedule, going 3-1 they are most likely to finish in the top 4. Then I think Illinois can also go 3-1 to finish top 4. Iowa and MSU are the most vulnerable and probably go 2-2. I’ll guess PSU goes 3-1. Then if Michigan finishes 3-1 they finish tied for 5th with Iowa and MSU. Not sure how the tiebreaker will work but that means we could be seeded as low as 7 in the BTT. I don’t think Rutgers, OSU, or IU catches Michigan because it seems like they would need to win out.

edit: with all that, using the season simulator it seems Michigan would finish 6. That would be a great situation because it would set up Minn, Wisconsin, Illinois rematch, championship game. 

If Michigan has a shot at #2, it involves them winning out, so make that assumption. If Wisconsin wins out after losing to Michigan, then Michigan still has the tiebreaker. There are several teams that Michigan split with, like MSU and Iowa, where the second tiebreaker is head-to-head with #1, which is Maryland. Michigan winning out means that Michigan will have a tiebreaker over most teams.

Maryland has loses to PSU, Wisconsin, Iowa, and OSU. Maryland has also beat Iowa and OSU and Michigan has the tiebreaker over Wisconsin, so PSU is the only team to worry about there. Maryland has already beat MSU and Rutgers, so Minnesota is the only other team that could have a winning record against Maryland, but they are 3 games back from PSU.

So, who are we rooting for? PSU and Illinois would be the only two teams with tiebreakers over Michigan in this scenario, so they need two losses. We hold tiebreakers over Iowa and MSU via Maryland, so one loss there is fine.

PSU has Rutgers, @Iowa, and MSU. PSU basically needs to lose @Iowa and we need Rutgers or MSU to do us a solid.

Illinois has Indiana, @OSU, and Iowa. They need to lose to Iowa and one of OSU and Indiana

MSU plays Iowa, @Maryland, @PSU. We've already said that MSU beating PSU would be helpful, so they need to lose to Iowa or Maryland. MSU beating Iowa and losing to Maryland would solve the rest of the puzzle for us.

Iowa has @MSU, PSU, @Illinois. We've already said that we need Iowa to beat PSU and Illinois. That leaves MSU as the only potential loss among the top half of the group.

So, here's our list of rooting interests:

• Michigan wins out
• Maryland beats MSU
• Iowa beats PSU and and Illinois
• MSU beats Iowa and PSU
• OSU/Indiana beats Illinois

This leaves the standings at something like:

1. Maryland
2. Michigan (13-7)
3. MSU (13-7)
4. Iowa (13-7)
5. PSU (12-8)
6. Illinois (12-8)

If Maryland were to lose @Minn and @Rutger, they would fall to 13-7 for a 4-way tie for #1. The combined records among those four would be:

• Maryland (3-2)
• Michigan (3-2)
• MSU (2-3)
• Iowa (2-3)

MSU and Iowa would fall out of discussion for #1 seed. Michigan would win the head-to-head-over Maryland. So, stretch goal is to root for Minn and Rutger over Maryland as well.

My projected finish:

Simple rules:

1) Home team wins games against each other except for our guys who pull out wins @OSU and @ Maryland

2) Each team beats Neb and NW regardless of home or road

MSU  4
Wed, Feb 26  vs Iowa - W 
Sun, Mar 1  @ Maryland - L
Wed, Mar 4  @ Penn State - L
Sun, Mar 8  vs Ohio State - W

Final record 12-8

Iowa 3
Wed, Feb 26  @ Michigan State - L
Sat, Feb 29  vs Penn State - W
Wed, Mar 4 vs Purdue - W
Mon, Mar 9  @ Illinois - L

Final record 12-8

Michigan  2
Fri, Feb 28  vs Wisconsin - W
Sun, Mar 1  @ Ohio State - W
Fri, Mar 6  vs Nebraska - W
Sun, Mar 8  @ Maryland - W

Final record 13-7

PSU  2
Thu, Feb 27  vs Rutgers - W
Sat, Feb 29  @ Iowa - L
Wed, Mar 4  vs Michigan State - W
Sat, Mar 7  @ Northwestern - W

Final record 13-7

Illinois  2
Fri, Feb 28  @ Northwestern - W
Sun, Mar 1  vs Indiana - W
Fri, Mar 6  @ Ohio State - L
Mon, Mar 9  vs Iowa - W

Final record 13-7

Wisconsin  1
Fri, Feb 28  @ Michigan - L
Mon, Mar 2  vs Minnesota - W
Thu, Mar 5  vs Northwestern - W
Sat, Mar 7  @ Indiana - L

Final record 12-8

Maryland  2
Thu, Feb 27  @ Minnesota - L
Sun, Mar 1  vs Michigan State - W
Wed, Mar 4  @ Rutgers - L
Sun, Mar 8  vs Michigan - L

Final Record 13-7

OSU  3
Fri, Feb 28  @ Nebraska -W
Sun, Mar 1  vs Michigan - L
Fri, Mar 6  vs Illinois - W
Sun, Mar 8  @ Michigan State - L

Final record 10-10

Final projected standings:

Michigan 13-7

Maryland 13-7

Illinois 13-7

Penn State 13-7

Michigan State 12-8

Wisconsin 12-8

Iowa 12-8

Rutgers 10-10 (FWIW)

OSU 10-10

There is certainly plenty of scenarios that can still play out, but this is just one crazy scenario that would be pretty cool if it played out...

Basically, anyone who has Northwestern and/or Nebraska have the only "gimme" wins. Otherwise it is too difficult to project. Could go any which way.

Karl Hungus

Maryland/MSU is a Saturday Night game on ESPN

We do not play Wisky Friday - I wish, as I will be at the Yoooostun Rodeo cookoff on Thursday during our game.

Also, Ohio does not play Nebraska Friday (also Thursday).  The B1G tends to avoid <48 hour multiple-location league game splits.  A 41-hour Nebraska-to-Ohio State timeline between tips wouldn't be on the B1G docket.

These are the only 2 I checked, as they are our games this week.

Wisconsin is just weird this year - they did all their damage in conference.  One top-50 OOC per KenPom but then they swept OSU and beat MSU.  I have no idea how they did it.

There's no way I can root for MSU to knock off any team.  I would take them going 0-4 and flaming out in their first game of the B1G tournament.

There is a way for a 10 way tie for first

Give me Michigan Runs the Table along with maximum Chaos Theory to get us in the top 4 of the conference.

This only matters for a double bye in the B1G tournament. Otherwise, it's all talk until the NCAAs

To me, Michigan's best case scenario involves both M and Penn State laying waste to the remainder of their schedules, and Michigan then sitting alone-ish at No. 3 in the big ten.  

I expect Iowa and MSU to both end 12-8 or worse, don't know how a 13-7 tie with Wisky pans out, and hope Illinois drops one they should win and also ends 12-8.

So I'll be rooting hard against both Illinois and Wisconsin as they slice through the cake schedules they face to close the season, but I'm expecting a tie for the 4/5 line in the B1G tourney for our boys.

That flagrant on Z to end the OSU game determines more than just that one game....

Imagine if that flagrant hadn't been called...