The Athletic: How Kentucky has outhustled Michigan for Ohio recruits

Submitted by Communist Football on February 12th, 2020 at 12:09 PM

In a lengthy profile of Kentucky recruiting coordinator Vince Marrow ($), who Mel Tucker is reportedly trying to bring to Michigan State, Ari Wasserman (The Athletic's OSU beat writer) describes how Kentucky has focused on taking OSU's Ohio leftovers away from Big Ten schools like Michigan. Michigan is behind not only OSU, but also Kentucky, ND, and MSU in recruiting 4- and 5-star prospects from Ohio:

Ohio always has been a main source of Big Ten talent, but a lot of that talent now is headed to Kentucky. UK identified the niche and attacked it, using Ohio-born coaches.

In the past seven recruiting cycles (2014-20), there were 93 four- and five-star prospects in Ohio. Ohio State predictably signed the most (38), followed by Kentucky (10), Notre Dame (eight), Michigan State (seven) and Michigan (five); the rest of the Big Ten has signed five total. That means Kentucky has signed almost 10 percent of the blue-chip prospects in Ohio in that span.

That’s a stark difference from what was happening before Stoops got to UK. In the 2009-2013 classes, there were 88 four- and five-star players in Ohio — and UK signed two. Ohio State (39) and Michigan (17) were the dominant schools.

Sense the pattern? Before Stoops and Marrow arrived at Kentucky, the Wildcats weren’t a factor in Ohio. Since Stoops and Marrow brought Kentucky into Ohio, the Wildcats have signed more blue-chip Ohio prospects than anybody outside of OSU. Not only that, Kentucky has signed more total Ohio prospects (47, one more than Michigan State) than any Big Ten school not named Ohio State...

Michigan, meanwhile, barely even attempts to recruit Ohio anymore even though the state has provided the Wolverines some of their best players over the years. The reason for these things happening? Marrow slips back into his chair and grins.

“The only team we have to track in Ohio is Ohio State because if they want an Ohio kid and recruit him the right way from the beginning, they are likely going to get them. But every other team, I’m not worried about them because we have beaten all of them for recruits in Ohio,” Marrow said, “What’s going on at other schools? I’m not going to say anything. You can come up with your own conclusion by what you see in the numbers. The proof is in the pudding.”

Kentucky is willing to take prospects that Michigan won't take—sure—and Kentucky may also be doing below-board things. But I'm curious to know how much Michigan is preemptively conceding these recruits to other schools.

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True Blue Grit

February 12th, 2020 at 12:41 PM ^

I agree.  I'm not convinced at all that Michigan simply isn't signing many guys out of Ohio because of bad luck, the lopsided rivalry, or some big effort by Kentucky/MSU.  There has to be more to it than that.  Hoke didn't seem to have any trouble.  Everything would point at Harbaugh just not emphasizing it for whatever unknown reason.  

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ak47

February 12th, 2020 at 1:06 PM ^

Ohio state has also mostly punted on ohio recruiting. There are a few elite guys in the state and OSU takes those guys, who the fuck cares if Kentucky is getting a guy ranked 300th in the country from Ohio if we are getting the 200th ranked guy out of MD or NJ. Michigan's recruiting classes are better than Kentucky's, I can't think of a single battle that Michigan lost directly to Kentucky for a recruit we wanted. Its a fluff piece that means nothing. We lost to OSU because of the elite guys they pulled from Georgia, Texas, California, and Florida, not because we aren't getting the guys they don't want from Ohio to be 3rd string.

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potomacduc

February 12th, 2020 at 12:30 PM ^

If you look at the two periods compared, Kentucky is +8 (2 to 10), but what might be more worrisome is that Michigan is -12 (17 to 5).

My question is whether Michigan's overall 4-5* haul had a similar decrease between the two periods. I don't think that it did. That begs the question: do you care where the 4-5* players come from? If Michigan signed 10 5*s from CA and 0 from OH, would you be mad?

The only issue I would see could is possibly be one of sustainability. It might be unrealistic to keep pulling kids from across the country on a regular basis. From that perspective, it seems like a good idea to hold serve in your back yard, but I'm more concerned about the overall talent level and talent at various positions.

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Perkis-Size Me

February 12th, 2020 at 12:32 PM ^

I think at least half of Harbaugh's recruiting classes, since he's gotten here, have been in the top-10. Maybe four of them, with 2015 and 2017 being the notable exceptions.

Where has Kentucky been in that timespan? My assumption is further down the totem pole. 

The point I'm making is that with the exception of your home state, ultimately I don't think it really matters where you sign your players from. As long as they win, what the hell does it matter where they come from? Can we honestly say Kentucky, ND, and MSU are that much better off than Michigan because they signed a few more 4-5 star kids from Ohio? If Michigan doesn't sign any 4-5 star Ohio players, but instead sign some 4-5 star kids from Michigan, Georgia, California, Texas, Florida, etc., are we really going to complain "ohhhhh we should've recruited Ohio better?" 

Not saying you shouldn't go after those top Ohio guys. By all means go after them if you think they can help you win. But as long as the guys you get help you win, what state they come from is largely irrelevant. They can come from Algeria, for all I care. They just better find a way to beat OSU. 

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Mo Better Blues

February 12th, 2020 at 12:33 PM ^

My simplistic way of looking at it (read: rationalizing) is: if we’re going to lose the best Ohio recruits to Ohio State 95+% of the time anyway, then who gives a shit where they’re from? We don’t really lack talent, generally — we lack elite talent. I get that the more scouted a place is, the greater the likelihood that their ranking is accurate, but accounting for that, is an Ohio 3-star really any better than, say, a Texas 3-star? 

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AlbanyBlue

February 12th, 2020 at 1:13 PM ^

This is answer right here. We lack elite talent -- and more importantly, we lack elite skill position talent on offense, and most importantly, we lack elite QB talent and the development of that talent.

This is what we should be most concerned about. An effective scheme -- which we may have now -- and great QB/RB/WR talent lead to the kind of explosive offense needed to go from #12-18 in the rankings to top ten.

Nico is poised to have a giant year, and Charbonnet and Haskins are nice pieces, but it's not enough to beat OSU, and I don't think it's even enough to be positioned to go 11-1.

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lostwages

February 12th, 2020 at 1:38 PM ^

Is highschool football in Texas and Florida more competitive than in say... Maryland?

I'd say yes...therefore, those recruits are probably a little further ahead.

Analogy is public school systems, one of the reasons why parents when they move check out different areas, to see what school system will give their child a better chance to succeed.

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woomba

February 12th, 2020 at 12:35 PM ^

Ohio is not the football factory that it once was - overall FB participation in kids is -27% from just a decade ago.  This is generally concerning about the talent pool that the Big Ten can pull from, but I subsequent decline in focus from Michigan makes sense with this in context

 

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Communist Football

February 12th, 2020 at 1:04 PM ^

Here's another reason to emphasize Ohio recruiting. By deepening our ties in Ohio, with Ohio HS programs and coaches, for the OSU leftovers, we increase our chances of competing with OSU for the players OSU actually covets (e.g. Zach Harrison). In other words, recruiting Ohio well isn't just about getting good players for Michigan. It's about decreasing the quality of players at OSU. You can mock that way of thinking if you want, but that's how OSU thinks about recruiting Michigan high schools.

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Bodogblog

February 12th, 2020 at 3:37 PM ^

You're trying to shoehorn your argument into multiple logic boxes, but none of them work. 

Exactly what you describe above can be accomplished in any state or region in which both schools recruit, which is all of them.  Build relationships in New Jersey, for example, increase chances of getting player that OSU wanted in New Jersey, weaken them by decreasing their quality of player. 

Are you from Ohio?  You may have a bias there.  

We won with great players from Ohio in the past for a lot of reasons that don't have anything to do with today.   

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robpollard

February 12th, 2020 at 12:46 PM ^

Just scanned the list of 247 Kentucky recruits. There is literally one OH Top 300 player who it would have been nice to get: #246 ranked Michael Drennen, though he's an APB and we actually seem pretty stacked with recruits like that.

As has been pointed out elsewhere, our problem is mainly we don't have elite playmakers -- not that we aren't doing a good enough job getting OSU "leftovers" from OH.

So unless someone can give a decent lists of OH recruits Kentucky beat us for (and that we didn't replace with an equivalent recruit from, say, IL or MA) this is a puff, promtional piece for a program that regularly finishes out of the Top 25. We have much bigger problems than Kentucky.

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S.G. Rice

February 12th, 2020 at 12:49 PM ^

I'm so glad that we have other people to clutch pearls for us.

Stoops has been the head coach at Kentucky for seven years.  He's had time to build up his contacts and relationships.  I'm too lazy to look and see how much turnover he's had among his assistants, but if there hasn't been much that helps with relationship building too.

Compare that to Harbaugh.

Now let's look at the more important piece.  Stoops has 1 ten win season and 1 eight win season in his seven years.  Harbaugh's worst season was eight wins and based on reactions you'd think he murdered babies when that happened.

"Failure" to recruit Ohio is a non-issue.  Could it be better?  Sure.  But with Ohio State attaining Death Star status it's not like it's incredibly easier to pull top talent out of Ohio than, say, Pennsylvania, Georgia or Florida.

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Rabbit21

February 12th, 2020 at 12:59 PM ^

1.  Marrow is an Ohio guy who basically turned down the Michigan job because he didn't want to take shit from his family and in-laws about it.  I have no idea why it's such a big deal for Ohio folks to spend their time trying to shit on Michigan, but here we are.  

2.  It's not exactly out of the realm of possibility that Kentucky is picking up players that Michigan has no interest in, yes, even the four star kids.

3.  Have we considered that the staff recognizes the current issues with Ohio recruiting, want to do something about it, but are running into a situation where their resources are better spent elsewhere given the current narrative about Michigan always losing to Ohio St.  I just think that for a lot of these kids there's a stigma in going to Michigan that isn't there for going to another school.

I realize none of this makes any difference to the hair-shirt, "Let's panic and rend our garments" squad.

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The Homie J

February 12th, 2020 at 2:16 PM ^

  I have no idea why it's such a big deal for Ohio folks to spend their time trying to shit on Michigan, but here we are.  

As someone who grew up around Columbus, beating Michigan is just engrained into their culture in a way Michiganders just can't understand.  We could do the same things in reverse (and somewhat used to) but now people see it as trying too hard or find it silly (all college sports traditions are silly at some level).  The fucking Governor bans the letter 'M' for a week fergodsakes.

I was not a fan of Brady Hoke by any means, but the one thing he did right was prioritize Ohio and recruit kids from the state with a chip on their shoulder.   Countdown clocks, 'Ohio' and all his other little bits of nonsense seem like nonsense, but the sum is greater than the parts with these things and I wish we'd lean into our hatred for that team (like we do with Sparty) rather than ignore them because they're the king of the hill at the moment.

And no, before anyone says it, countdown clocks are not why we lose, but culture is part of it.  Go find Khaleke Hudson's quote about hoping they show up on a down day versus the guys on that team who said nothing else that season matters except that game.  Football is mental and physical, we're at a disadvantage physically, but can control the mental battle at least. 

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Jimmyisgod

February 12th, 2020 at 2:51 PM ^

MSU has a ton of Big Ten money, and Blackwell was suing them for like $765 grand before this time, and he's not even suing MSU, he's suing Dantonio personally.

MSU is 13th in sports revenue in the country.  This is the first time they've ever acted like it.

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