The Athletic Bracketology: Michigan Now a 1 Seed
This is probably a given at this point, but The Athletic's Bracket Watch moves Michigan up to a 1 seed. I would expect the same movement will take place with Lunardi and most of the rest of the bracketologists. Here's the relevant section about Michigan:
• The big change this week? Michigan ascends to a No. 1 seed.
This was pretty much a no-brainer, even before Texas lost to Texas Tech on Wednesday night. The Wolverines are 11-0 and have risen to No. 3 in the NET behind Gonzaga and Baylor. While their résumé isn’t as perfect as their record — the only notable win away from Crisler Center was at Maryland — they get an A-plus on the eye test. The complete demolition of Wisconsin, which was a No. 2 seed on our board last week, was as impressive as anything we’ve seen all season. The Wolverines move ahead of Villanova, which will eventually, you know, need to play basketball again. One could make an argument for putting Texas ahead of the idle Wildcats, but only if one blacked out during ’Nova’s win over the Longhorns last month in Austin.
January 15th, 2021 at 7:39 AM ^
Michigan will end up as a 2/3 seed most likely. The B1G is just too loaded and they will lose games just to the condensed schedule.
That being said, watching the basketball team every year, and how they grow, is just a blast!
January 15th, 2021 at 8:05 AM ^
The only team that can beat us on a night where we dont shoot cold is Iowa. If they pour in a ton of 3s they can beat us. Illinois and Iowa are the only unknowns left on the schedule. Give us losses in both games and we are still a one seed. This team isnt even getting competition beyond half time. What i saw on defense is what makes us a one seed. Wisconsin couldnt even get a shot off. Craziness!
January 15th, 2021 at 8:22 AM ^
Minnesota is a very different team at home and could beat us tomorrow. Iowa is going to give us fits, primarily because of their zone defense. The MSU games will be rivalry games so can't bet on those.
January 15th, 2021 at 10:45 AM ^
They've definitely shown a home court advantage. They've won against Iowa, ohio state, and michigan state (the latter two by 17+ points) at the barn. Lost by double-digits to Illinois, Wisconsin, Michigan, and Iowa on the road.
After Michigan tomorrow, Minny doesn't face another ranked opponent until 2/20 at home vs. Illinois. They've gotten Iowa and Wisco out of the way (somehow they only play Wisconsin once) and the other tough crossovers in msu and osu.
Looking forward to our first real road test. Win the game!
January 15th, 2021 at 12:26 PM ^
Like I said this will involve bad shooting. Thats the only way we lose to Minny.
January 15th, 2021 at 8:25 AM ^
i don't like being the doomsayer, but don't look past sparty. we did in football, and look what happened.
January 15th, 2021 at 8:36 AM ^
Izzo spends the regular season working on his lineups. He is a tourney guy, so I agree...dont look past them.
January 15th, 2021 at 9:13 AM ^
Seconded. Too many times I've seen people try to bury Izzo and Spartans and they always spring back. Looking past them would be a recipe for getting beat.
January 15th, 2021 at 10:26 AM ^
He’s a tourney guy who loses way more lately in March. Sorry but they are not going to stop us in either game. No leader, no shooters, and zero inside presence. Get ready, we will destroy MSU both games this year. You can’t coach height.
January 15th, 2021 at 10:28 AM ^
from your lips to God's ear.
would absolutely love to see it, but not sure we will.
January 15th, 2021 at 9:20 AM ^
Difference is Michigan football isn't good and Michigan basketball is significantly better. MSU is a solid team but they have serious holes in their lineup that isn't solvable by the time he face Michigan. I expect a blowout on both games. Last time Michigan played MSU, they blew out MSU. I'm much more worried about Iowa, Illinois and Wisconsin than MSU.
January 15th, 2021 at 10:15 AM ^
You're right, but Harbaugh has never beaten Sparty when he wasn't supposed to. Howard already has.
January 15th, 2021 at 10:08 AM ^
Well as they say, that’s why they play the games. Michigan is going to lose a game at some point, and the real question at that point will be how do they respond. Do they shake it off, or do things start to snowball?
I’m not going to assume anything. I won’t even feel good about going into the games with MSU. Those are rivalry games, and he just never know how they’re really going to go. That’s exactly why Michigan was able to go in there a couple of years ago, unranked, and knock a #3 MSU squad off.
Michigan, on paper, should win most if not all the games left on its schedule. But the games aren’t played on paper, as we all know. They are entering the much tougher portion of their schedule now, so we’ll see how it all goes.
January 15th, 2021 at 11:36 AM ^
Even the Trey Burke runner up team lost 6 games in a similarly loaded B1G, including an embarrassing one against Penn State and absolutely getting dismantled in East Lansing.
I'll always remember that game against MSU. It was the end of a brutal 4-game stretch, where we had played in Bloomington, at home against OSU, and in Madison and gone 1-2 and from the opening tip against MSU couldn't do anything. To see that incredible Michigan team go down by 29 points on a night where they were just getting punked by Adreian Payne and co....you would have thought they were not even a bubble team.
Point is those kind of nights happen even to the best teams in the night-in, night-out grind of the B1G (and sometimes inconsistent officiating doesn't help). Do I think Michigan is the best team in the B1G? Yes. But it's a long season and February in particular is going to be brutal playing so many teams back-to-back.
In terms of actual matchups in a vaccuum, Illinois scares me more than Iowa. Iowa's going to put up points but I think Franz and Livers can outplay their wings and if we put up 1.4 PPP on Wisconsin Iowa's going to bleed a ton of points. Unless they shoot like crazy and Garza destroys Dickinson it's going to be tough for them.
Illinois however poses some very unique and worrisome potential matchup issues. Kofi has 30 lbs on Hunter Dickinson; he has the size to not get bullied and deliver some punishment of his own and decent mobility for that size. That will be an excellent matchup but it will be difficult. And Ayo Dosumnu not only always seems to go off against Michigan, he's the exact kind of guard that's been tough for us: big and quick with a penchant for hitting difficult shots. I have faith in Eli, but Ayo, Curbelo, Adam Miller is a tough group of guards, and while I wouldn't call our guard defense a weakness at all (or even neutral, it's a positive), it is the weakest spot relatives to our wings and Hunter.
TL;DR: it's quite possible Michigan is far and away the best team in the B1G and yet loses some games and maybe even a couple head-scratchers.
January 15th, 2021 at 8:19 AM ^
Where do 5-6 losses come from? If they drop to a 3 seed, that's what we're looking at. I think both Illinois and Iowa can take one, and some other team will probably get a flier against them. But I'm having a hard time coming up with more than that...
January 15th, 2021 at 8:23 AM ^
Beat. Minnesota.
January 15th, 2021 at 6:29 PM ^
January 15th, 2021 at 11:50 AM ^
We also play @ Wisconsin. Our projected B1G record is 16-4. Only takes 1 extra loss
January 15th, 2021 at 12:45 PM ^
They'll still be a 1-seed with 5 losses if they win the B1G outright and maybe even if they tie for the title as long as they win the H2H with Iowa (or Illinois if that's who they tie with)
January 15th, 2021 at 9:13 AM ^
I keep seeing people talk about a condensed schedule, but I don't really see that. They have a game every weekend and one weekday game for the rest of the season except for two weeks where they don't play a weeknight game. Maybe if they make up the PSU game it gets a little more condensed, but I think the schedule is pretty standard.
January 15th, 2021 at 9:27 AM ^
I guess I just don't believe that we will only have one game changed due to COVID. Granted, we will get more rest at certain points, but there will be a stretch where I could see us playing 5 games in 11 days or something to that effect... and then the B1G Tourney.
January 15th, 2021 at 9:41 AM ^
PSU AD: Hello, Warde?
Michigan AD: Yes?
PSU AD: You know that game that we missed that we wanted to make up later? Well, you know, maybe we just, uh...
January 15th, 2021 at 9:45 AM ^
OR….
Michigan demolishes that loaded Big Ten, home and away, and rockets through the NCAA tourney, setting up one of the best finals matchups with Gonzaga in the Finals in a generation.
January 15th, 2021 at 10:24 AM ^
No, absolutely not. My heart will fail me before halftime. I know we beat them last time but I am scarred from the last two finals match ups.
January 15th, 2021 at 2:09 PM ^
So ... you don’t want us to get back to the championship game again during your natural life, is that it?
January 15th, 2021 at 10:58 AM ^
It's likely that the other contenders will lose games as well, though (except maybe Gonzaga since the WCC is a joke). In particular, Kansas, Texas, TT, and Baylor will inflict some damage on each other. And Michigan will get a boost for their strength of schedule.
We have 13 scheduled games left, not including the B1G tournament. If we can go something like 9-4 in those 13 games and at least 2-1 in the tournament, we'd still be contending for a 1 seed.
January 15th, 2021 at 12:10 PM ^
I believe all the conference tournaments should be cancelled...too many risks and variables to have a fair, balanced outcome. Regardless, it is difficult to see, barring health/injury disasters, Michigan falling below the 2-3 seed line.
January 15th, 2021 at 11:47 AM ^
They will definitely lose games but if we were to win the B1G, giving us a 3 seed would be a travesty. I would guess if there is an outright B1G champ they will get a 1 seed, if it's a split they can both be 2 seeds.
January 15th, 2021 at 12:52 PM ^
It would take a significant collapse (8 or more losses) to drop to a 3 seed at this point. You don't get punished that badly for losing to good teams. Look at most of the other teams vying for 1 seeds right now. Multiple losses already and they're all just now getting into tough conference play.
It's still most likely that they'll win the B1G (the median Torvik scenario is that they go 16-4 in conference) and that'll be plenty good enough for a one seed this season. Five conference losses and a tie for the title would still be enough if they beat Iowa in the H2H. Six or seven losses and they'd drop to a two seed but the odds of 6 or more losses is only about 35%.
January 15th, 2021 at 7:50 AM ^
External stuff is fun, though not crucial till later.
More fun right now is watching the team and coaches working together to get better.
January 15th, 2021 at 8:10 AM ^
I take great joy in saying this: Duh!
January 15th, 2021 at 8:15 AM ^
Well said, well said. ?
January 15th, 2021 at 8:20 AM ^
Jerry Palm just moved us to a 1 seed, too.
https://www.cbssports.com/college-basketball/bracketology/
Edit: And he has Sparty in a play-in game, lulz.
Edit 2: And Lunardi just moved us up to the top line.
January 15th, 2021 at 8:30 AM ^
Michigan has yet to play in one of those tightly-called games where everyone's angry with the refs. I'm curious to see what happens if HD picks up 2 quick ones against Garza, or if Franz "Swiss Army Knife" Wagner has to sit for an extended period in the first half. So far this year, the refs are letting 'em play.
January 15th, 2021 at 9:14 AM ^
Craig said something about this being the best officiating he has ever seen in the B1G. I wonder if it is related to their being no fans to sway things toward home teams?
January 15th, 2021 at 9:44 AM ^
Seems plausible, but the whole 'home team' thing doesn't appear to have worked out very well for Michigan. Not for either football or basketball. Maybe the refs just hate Michigan as much as rivals' fans do?
Well, we know that in some cases the refs are rivals' fans... (Looking at you, 2016 Game crew...)
January 15th, 2021 at 9:52 AM ^
I suspect there being no fans does help. I've watched portions of a lot of Big Ten basketball this season, and two schools still seem to be getting the home officiating in their favor: IU and OSU.
January 15th, 2021 at 10:05 AM ^
How the hell does OSU ALWAYS get officiating in their favor?? In every frickin sport! You know, sometimes........
January 15th, 2021 at 11:39 AM ^
Having Davis back is huge for this. I did not want to see Johns trying to check Garza or Cockburn.
January 15th, 2021 at 3:59 PM ^
Yep, those five extra fouls are huge. Make them earn it.
January 15th, 2021 at 8:35 AM ^
Anyone else feel like BPONE is creepin....waiting outside our homes....peeking in our windows?
January 15th, 2021 at 8:53 AM ^
Yes honestly I just keep waiting for the bottom to fall out.
January 15th, 2021 at 10:00 AM ^
No, I heard he's moved to east lansing
January 15th, 2021 at 10:22 AM ^
Hopefully for much longer than just the winter and spring.
January 15th, 2021 at 10:10 AM ^
I'm very excited about this team, but all of the adulations makes me very nervous. They are still kids and they read the headlines. Hopefully, they learn from last year when the buzz they were getting post the tournament in the Bahamas feels the same as it does now. I would be thrilled with a 2 or 3 seed based on the expectations prior to the beginning of the season.
January 15th, 2021 at 10:27 AM ^
Post ESPN’s BPI rankings in the locker room. BPI has us ranked behind a 4 loss Illinois and a 3 loss Texas Tech. It seems to generally undervalue B1G teams although Iowa is the exception at #2.
January 15th, 2021 at 8:42 AM ^
Michigan has a target on their back now - so get ready.
They went from "not playing anybody" to breaking NCAA records against ranked teams. They are having fun, they are celebrating small wins during their possessions, they have the swagger. The next step is to carry that swagger with that target on their back.
Dont look past that Oakland game as a huge motivator for them.
January 15th, 2021 at 8:47 AM ^
All Michigan has to do is continue to play great disciplined basketball. Juwan and his staff will make that happen. <fingers crossed>
January 15th, 2021 at 8:51 AM ^
I've been trying really hard to enjoy basketball season without any expectations. Unfortunately, our schedule and early season brilliance is making that really hard!
I don't think we'll know exactly how good we are or aren't until February is over.
Its a good problem to have! I'm having such a blast watching this team this year.
Go Blue!
January 15th, 2021 at 11:41 AM ^
I know right now were really, really good. You don't go up by 40 on Wisconsin if you aren't elite. We arent going to go undefeated but you should believe right now that we are that good.