The Athletic Article: Ohio State Still Alive and Dangerous
Pains me to have this discussion. Ohio State is very much alive and dangerous according to our friends at The Athletic. They are not (yet) a vanquished foe.
https://theathletic.com/3950797/2022/11/29/georgia-ohio-state-college-football-playoff/
It's behind a paywall, so I'll just summarize by saying Ari Wasserman is suggesting that UGA was also the big loser of the results to "The Game" since there's a statistical likelihood of OSU getting into the 4-spot in the final CFP Rankings, and thus UGA would have to face OSU -- the only other team with the caliber of talent needed to compete at the Natty level with Geogia.
The article is also a not-so-subtle dig on Michigan, our lack of depth and stars, and how OSU with a month to prepare would be a much more dangerous foe for UGA. Look, I don't disagree OSU is a talented program with incredible athleticism. They have immense talent in the skill positions, and depth everywhere. But two years in a row of being outmuscled at the line of scrimmage is not a fluke. Losing by three TD's on your home field in arguably the biggest game in a generation -- that's not a fluke. I enjoy the underdog narrative for Michigan. It supports our junk yard dog tenacity and is part of our culture of toughness now. But give me a break. We are closer to UGA than anyone is giving us credit for, and I assure you the fine folks in Athens don't relish the idea of playing us again.
Lastly, I'll just point out (once again) that IMHO it's bullshit TCU and USC are exposed to risk in a 13th game that Bama and OSU lost the opportunity in which to play. In my opinion, playing a 13th game for a conference championship should only be able to improve one's standing in the CFP Rankings. But I know I'm in the minority with that sentiment.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:25 AM ^
Ari is a fucking OSU fan boy masquerading as a national writer.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:59 AM ^
I generally enjoy Ari's presence on Andy Staples podcast, but Ari worships recruiting rankings to a fault. He probably still does not believe Michigan is a better team because OSU has more 5 stars. He could probably justify OSU making the playoff over TCU because OSU has more recruiting star power. He may have tried this already today
November 30th, 2022 at 10:07 AM ^
It almost sounds like he is saying that OSU should be in CFP ahead of Michigan although I doubt even an OSU superfan would say that right now.
The funny thing is that most OSU fans want nothing to do with Georgia or the playoffs. The sentiment is something like: "if Michigan did that to us, what will happen against Georgia?"
November 30th, 2022 at 10:15 AM ^
Exactly, Kirby LOVES the muscle his opponent and run the ball down an opponents throat. I have been going back and forth on whether OSU should be able to get into the playoffs.
On the one side, both TCU and USC should not be penalized for playing in a CCG. I believe that TCU is in regardless (as long as it is not a blow out). As for USC, honestly I believe they are a better team than OSU anyways, but they do sit on the bubble of needing to win to eliminate all doubt on securing the 4th seed. So there is no justifiable reason to include OSU in the playoffs.
However, I believe that if they did manage to back their way into the playoffs, UGA would smoke them. Further exposing them as the soft front runners they are and we would never actually see them in the playoffs
November 30th, 2022 at 10:28 AM ^
USC is more deserving than OSU, but too many people are treating USC better than they actually are. They are half a team (all offense, no defense) that has gotten by with insane turnover luck. There is no sportsbook that would have OSU as less than a 12 point favorite on a neutral field vs USC.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:56 AM ^
I'm irritated at the fact that osu would get in if USC loses.
It doesnt matter who is better between osu or bama. osu has 1 loss at home (a blowout at that) to Michigan but you have bama who has lost 2 close games on the road that came down to the last play. The thing with bama is they dont have 1 single marquee win. Texas? Ole miss? lol
Thats why osu should be #5 but they do not deserve to be in the playoff. If by some miracle they squeaked by GA and made it to the NC game then that loss to Michigan (which is everything to them) means nothing.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:25 AM ^
The faint flicker of desperate hope that maybe, just maybe, someone else is going to do for them that which they could not do themselves. Can't wait to watch it snuffed out.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:28 AM ^
I agree 100% with your last point. Maybe TCU and USC should claim a COVID outbreak and sit out the championship games.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:28 AM ^
playing a 13th game for a conference championship should only be able to improve one's standing in the CFP Rankings. But I know I'm in the minority with that sentiment.
Absolutely.
And as I said in the other thread, if OSU and Alabama want in, have the committee tell them "you two play each other this weekend for a chance at the 4-seed, otherwise we're putting USC in even if they lose."
"And if you win and USC loses, we'll consider. Bonus points if your coach dances a little jig on national TV after the game"
Turn Boo Corrigan into college football's version of Jigsaw
November 30th, 2022 at 9:30 AM ^
If Ohio State could get in with a USC or TCU loss, then the CFP Committee should have the cajones to put them ahead of USC or TCU right now. That way those teams know they have to win to get in. OSU might have lost to Utah or Kansas St or Purdue. We don't know for sure because they didn't earn a chance. There should be no backing in. If you think a 1 loss OSU deserves in over an undefeated regular season or 1 loss regular season team, then put them in right now.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:02 AM ^
I agree and I think that OSU should be ranked higher than USC right now. OSU has the better resume, lost to a better team and passes the eye test more than USC. The only thing that will rank USC above OSU is another win and a conference championship. So I would rank OSU #4 and USC #5 but with the caveat that USC will pass OSU if USC wins.
TCU is a tougher case IMO. An unbeaten TCU should rank above OSU right now. However, if TCU loses and is not conference champ, then it's a tough call between the two. I would probably favor TCU but I can understand arguments for OSU.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:05 AM ^
I am trying to figure out how the OSU defense that we saw on Saturday will stop Caleb Williams. Maybe they can outscore him, I guess...
November 30th, 2022 at 10:29 AM ^
Actually, I'd say that is a team OSU is built to compete with. I have serious doubts about USC's defense, you're probably looking at a 80+ point total track meet.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:29 AM ^
Sorry, but I do not agree with your sentiment about OSU v USC.
First, USC has 3 wins against top 20 teams including a road win. OSU has 2 wins (with a road win as well).
Second, USC lost on the last play of the game on the road against #12 team. OSU got pounded by the number 2 team on their home field
Third, there is actually a common opponent, both teams beat ND, OSU was a decent win pulling away in the 4th quarter. USC overwhelmed ND, ND was never really in that game, Caleb did basically whatever he wanted to do. Plus I would argue the ND team at the end of the year is a much better version of the one that played against OSU.
Finally in terms of eye test, yes it is very subjective, but right now to me USC is trending in the correct direction and OSU was just exposed.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:40 AM ^
I'm pretty sure USC knows it needs to win to get in, TCU probably as well. The rankings this late in the season reflect what happened recently and there's no way the committee can put OSU ahead of USC and TCU based on what happened in the weekend.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:54 AM ^
I have some mixed feelings about all this. On the one hand, OSU sitting at 5 means that that sets our floor. Even if we lose to Purdue, they would not drop us below 5 when that 5 team sat on its ass on championship saturday and lost to us the week prior. On the other hand, OSU sitting at 5 means that they may sneak in and I have to watch for a month OSU media coverage (together w the other 3 playoff teams). Fuck that. Playoff media coverage is good for a program and if you lose by 22 on your home field you shouldn't get it.
I'd be curious if it has ever happened that a team has lost by 22 at home in their last regular season game and made it to the playoffs, and I don't want them getting special treatment.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:28 AM ^
how OSU with a month to prepare would be a much more dangerous foe
They had 12 months to prepare for The Game and the result was *fart noise*
November 30th, 2022 at 10:31 AM ^
Give them a month and watch them overpay another Big 12 defensive coordinator
November 30th, 2022 at 9:32 AM ^
I'll ask again: Wasserman aside, why does OSU get such favorable coverage from national sports media? Am I imagining things? Is it because of the ties to recruiting sites?
November 30th, 2022 at 9:39 AM ^
There's 100% a recent bias with most of these guys. Nobody seems to benefit more from this than OSU and Bama.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:42 AM ^
Much as I despise arguing any point for OSU: they get that favorable coverage because they make a run at qualifying for the playoffs every year. They make those runs because they recruit at an elite level year after year. The recruiting sites are just the messenger.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:01 AM ^
A lot of these programs have a baseline perception based on previous years. You can see how it's impossible to drop Clemson, Bama, or OSU down the rankings. Hell, it took a few weeks of OU sucking to finally be banished. Clemson lost at home to a 2 touchdown underdog and dropped a spot. It's absurd
You think Michigan, TCU, USC, etc are getting that treatment? No. And it's because people look at Clemson now and still view them as Clemson of 5 years ago
November 30th, 2022 at 10:06 AM ^
I mean they have won like a million games since the playoff has gone into effect. As much as I hate them, pretty much everyone here would love to have a run like they have over the past 20ish years.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:33 AM ^
I think it was a big mistake for the committee to put OSU ahead of Alabama. Alabama lost two last second games to good, ranked teams on the road. Ohio State got crushed at home. Now they are in a bind. I think moving Alabama ahead of TCU if TCU loses would have largely been accepted. They are f-ing Bama, they played a really tough schedule and were about 6 points total from being undefeated. But moving OSU ahead of them? I think that will be widely criticized if that happens. The committee had a chance to give themselves a pretty obvious out if TCU lost and completely blew it.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:35 AM ^
I don't know how you put Alabama ahead of OSU. Those close losses also look worse as Tennessee and LSU took some bad losses to end the season. Alabama also has some extremely close fortunate wins over Texas and Ole Miss. There was just as much a chance for Alabama to have 4 losses today as there was for them to be undefeated.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:39 AM ^
Because you don't get to get hamblasted at home by 23 points in your season finale and be in the Playoff discussion. You just don't.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:19 AM ^
Let's not get carried away here. It was only 22.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:08 AM ^
+1 for hamblasted which, on a side note, was just added to this work presentation I'm creating.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:39 AM ^
Alabama barely beat Texas without Ewers at QB, lost two games, and its best win is...Ole Miss?
OSU has better wins (PSU and Notre Dame) than Alabama and their only loss is to the best team in the country.
That being said, neither should have a shot at this point.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:40 AM ^
I agree, but there has to be a #5, and it should not be OSU after last Saturday.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:05 AM ^
TN has a better resume than Bama and beat them head to head.
OSU should be #5 (or even #4 right now) and then TN then Bama (or PSU).
November 30th, 2022 at 10:09 AM ^
I think they bake injuries into their ranking and UT without Hooker should not be above Bama IMO.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:09 AM ^
Agreed.
If the shoe were on the other foot, would Michigan fans be ok having a two loss Alabama team ranked ahead of one loss Michigan?
Games matter. 2 losses are worse than one lose. Its really all that should matter.
November 30th, 2022 at 3:20 PM ^
They'd have an argument if they had a win over, say, Georgia that's better than OSU's win over Penn State. And if their two losses were the only two close games they played all year (so the "they were unlucky" argument actually had merit).
But they have neither of those things. They just as easily could have lost to Ole Miss, texas, and Texas A&M. People forget that last one a lot. They were one goalline play away from taking a loss to a BAD bowl ineligible team. And are actually 3-2 in one-score games...i.e., kinda lucky if anything that they only had 2 losses instead of 3.
I don't think OSU should make it in even if USC loses a close game to Utah this Saturday, just because of how they wilted against Michigan at home. But there shouldn't even be an argument for Bama over OSU...and it's frankly upsetting that pundits are even talking about it as some sort of realistic possibility.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:14 AM ^
Hilarious you have to be kidding me. Evidently you actually did NOT watch one Bama game, or pay attention to their other outcomes. They should've lost four games, since you're going to use hypotheticals.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:26 AM ^
And at least OSU can point to two better wins than anything Alabama has. Alabama's best wins are against very mediocre teams. The "two close losses" as a determinative factor is bananas.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:33 AM ^
Some of it is true, but OSU was still the biggest loser. On paper, that OSU team should not be in this position to depend on other teams losing to get into the playoff. But what he said about Georgia is true. OSU is still the #2 team in the advanced stats and would be a tougher matchup than USC.
We won The Game by making the big plays when it counted, but let's not pretend that a rematch would definitely go our way again. Discussion I have seen on the advanced stats have posited that OSU would be a -2 point favorite in a rematch on a neutral field today. What made that win at OSU more sweet is the fact they were supposed to win, and we beat them down in their house and put them in this position where they have lost the Big Ten title, the Heisman, and possibly a playoff spot.
November 30th, 2022 at 3:42 PM ^
Id argue those big plays were the cost of refusing to get ran over again which showed once they backed off and got ran of the field on the long JJ TD drive. I do not think we would lose a rematch, especially with a healthier Blake and Morris, we beat them by 22, at home, without our best defensive and offensive players. They don't win a rematch.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:33 AM ^
Georgia was running Tennessee's routes for them. Georgia eats pass-happy teams that can't run for breakfast.
A Georgia - Ohio State matchup would be quite entertaining. If they they get pounded in that game too, their existential crises will be on full 11.
If I'm Ohio State I'm rooting for a nice quiet under the radar Rose Bowl.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:53 AM ^
I would rather see the bulldogs throttled by osu and us rematch with osu with a healthy lineup. Remove any doubt.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:00 AM ^
There already is no doubt.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:18 AM ^
Watch what we wish for..I don’t want to see that team until next November. Hard to beat a good team twice in a month. A loss to them would put a damper on 2 great seasons. Root hard for Trojans and Horned Frogs.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:55 AM ^
The few Georgia games I watched, their downfield passing game is excellent. It will literally be like Michigan game with Georgia having their key players starting. OSU will be pummelled to the ground.
November 30th, 2022 at 11:29 AM ^
I've seen rumors that, if OSU doesn't make the playoff, they may fall to the Orange Bowl as the Rose Bowl reps would rather pick Penn State, believing OSU fans will travel after their season ended in disappointment for the second year in a row.
/insert tears of unfathomable sadness gif/
November 30th, 2022 at 5:05 PM ^
Spoiled fuckers. They think the Rose Bowl is beneath them.
November 30th, 2022 at 9:33 AM ^
Like someone said on the Cowherd show Monday: Ohio State doesn't have a program problem they have a Michigan problem. OSU IMO would be extremely dangerous in the 4 spot if they slide in. I do not want to see a semi final matchup but my gosh I'd love to gut them in the National championship game a second time!
November 30th, 2022 at 9:43 AM ^
Are we certain about that? OSU over the last 3 years has lost badly twice to Michigan the last two years, blown out by Alabama in 2021 CFP National Championship Game, got ran over at home by Oregon in 2021, and needed a huge comeback to squeak by Utah in the 2022 Rose Bowl, a game they probably should have lost. Outside of PSU, every top 15-ish team OSU has played has given them problems. They do have the blowout win over Clemson in the 2021 Sugar Bowl (CFP semifinals), but that is about it and Clemson has been a downward slide the last couple years.
November 30th, 2022 at 10:00 AM ^
Point taken.... They were discussing their two year record and clearly they have a Michigan problem.... I guess I'd like to see them get in get pounded by GA and then we take down GA. That would be Buckeyes tears taste like sugar. I just don't want a semi final matchup with them
November 30th, 2022 at 10:40 AM ^
They do have a Michigan problem. This problem would be is that UGA is built very much the same way Michigan is built. So while the color of the uniforms would be different, I would expect a very similar result. The physical team just pounds the finesse team into submission.