Ari Wasserman suggests Harbaugh is "playing chess" in recruiting & development

Submitted by Communist Football on December 22nd, 2023 at 8:48 PM

Ari Wasserman, the former Ohio State beat writer who is now a national "stars matter" recruiting analyst for the Athletic, had this to say about Michigan in his review of the 2024 signing day results:

What should we make of Michigan? The Wolverines have won the Big Ten and beaten Ohio State three years in a row, yet their class currently includes only two top-100 players, both of whom are outside of the top 75. If any program in the country has defied the recruiting results to achieve great things, it’s Michigan. I want to say it’s yet another underwhelming class when compared to what is happening on the field, but maybe it’s just time to say Jim Harbaugh and his staff are playing chess in evaluation, development and the transfer portal. Michigan legitimately may win the national title this year, which I thought was impossible — literally impossible — for a team that ranks No. 14 in the 247Sports Team Talent Composite.

It's an interesting admission from a guy who has repeatedly asserted that you can't win a national championship with Michigan's formula. Full article ($) here.

IMB87

December 22nd, 2023 at 9:46 PM ^

He still has a tendency to cast losses to Michigan as "what did Ohio State do wrong" but before the season in one of his podcasts, he did say that he thought if there was a team that could win the national championship without the highest level of recruiting, it was Michigan. 

And then in the Until Saturday playoff reaction podcast, he says that if you based playoff selection on what teams you least want to play, he picks Alabama, Georgia, Texas and Michigan, refusing to pick Ohio State because Michigan beat them and he's tired of being called a homer. Then says that Michigan is the greatest thing that's ever happened.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=L0H6J5OtaU4  .  

BlueHills

December 22nd, 2023 at 10:09 PM ^

Call it chess, call it knowing how to evaluate and develop talent that fits your program and your team's identity.

The people who give out recruiting stars don't know much about how to do that. Harbaugh's proved he does on the field. He's rebuilt this program pretty much from the ground up. My hat is off to him.

I just hope we can keep him in A2.

XM - Mt 1822

December 22nd, 2023 at 10:27 PM ^

that's overly cynical re: informed speculation.  it's more certain than that, but less certain than some form of guarantee. 

what made bama elite is that they illegally paid a truck load of the best players and had enough pan out to win a bunch.  aaannndddd, credit to their coaching staff, other than the one guy we hired (nussmeir, what were we thinking?) they have some ability beyond just having the very best chess pieces, so to speak. 

Blue In Bogota

December 22nd, 2023 at 11:22 PM ^

Why does everyone think stars are everything? Sparty under Dantonio gave us plenty of problems with their 2 and 3 star talents. Granted, Rich Rod and Hoke were not it, they still had far more 4 stars on their roster. Player development and game-planning was the difference. 

The difference between a high 3 star and 5 star is not that drastic. Whatever Harbaugh has been doing the last 3 years is working. If Coach wants a roster full of 2 stars, who is anyone to doubt his judgement at this point? 

Just fucking beat Bama and all this class ranking nonsense goes out the window. Football is an 11 man sport, it is far more important to get team players than I think many people realize.

Buckeye_Impaler8124

December 23rd, 2023 at 4:01 PM ^

Because it’s been proven to be impossible to win championships, and more importantly, repeat that success without stacked rosters. If they pull it off this year it would be a significant exception to the rule and is not likely to happen again any time soon. Also, the difference between a high 3 star and a 5 star is very large lol.

TickerTape

December 23rd, 2023 at 8:21 AM ^

There is a lot to be said about developing a player and finding the right fit. Iowa is a great example of this. Their defense is filled with 3 star recruits, but it's pretty solid year in and year out. If they ever got their shit together on offense they could be dangerous, even without having the Rivals 250 top players.

bacon1431

December 23rd, 2023 at 9:00 AM ^

Star system is a good indicator of talent and for the most part the system works. However, there are always exceptions. For example, i would trust a Mark Dantonio eval of a DB recruit over the star system. Used to trust any Wisconsin OL or LB commit.

I think Michigan has earned the benefit of the doubt for just about any recruit on defense, OL and TE. 

mexwolv

December 23rd, 2023 at 9:20 AM ^

We are not the only ones doing it, Washington has had great success with relatively low recruiting classes, it will be interesting to see how they perform next year after their star QB is gone

 

Ray

December 23rd, 2023 at 10:02 AM ^

I heard someone say (it might have been Craig or Seth on the Roundtable—apologies for not recalling) that we’re keeping players who might have otherwise left other schools.  

They’re staying for their degrees and for their development and this is an advantage that places like OSU can’t match.  This is a deliberate strategy that plays to our strengths.  So while OSU might get the higher rated players as freshmen, over the longer run we benefit from the leadership and stability in the locker room that comes from keeping skilled and experienced players who want to be here.  

XM - Mt 1822

December 23rd, 2023 at 10:19 AM ^

maybe the dynamic is analogous to the basketball one-and-done phenoms.  teams that actually do well year after year don't necessarily have all the mcdonalds all-americans in the world, but have glue guys that are the equivalent of 3* and 4*s who mature and develop.  

njvictor

December 23rd, 2023 at 11:39 AM ^

In the age of NIL, building a team of high upside athletes who are bought into the team and culture is likely going to yield better results than a team of 4 stars who want to immediately play and get the bag. It seems like there’s a been a fundamental attitude change among high rated players these days and it might just be cashing in on their value while the iron is still hot, but that doesn’t lead to a cohesive team. 

Richard75

December 23rd, 2023 at 12:03 PM ^

The Team Talent Composite that the blurb cites is interesting, but it isn’t nearly sophisticated enough to gauge how much talent a team actually had on the field in 2023.

For instance, Ohio State this season had three 5-star WRs and seven more 4-star WRs. Any credit you give OSU for half of those guys distorts the picture, since half of them weren’t relevant at all this season.

SysMark

December 23rd, 2023 at 1:31 PM ^

This guy's constantly trying to come up with some kind of rationale for his pro-OSU nonsense.  The Athletic has really taken a slide - I'm surprised someone in charge hasn't done something to rein these clowns (i.e. Feldman, Mandel, Wasserman et al).