Analysis of MGoBlog's Rank the Enemy....uhhhh...Analysis
I greatly appreciate the "Rank the Enemy" series. Thank you Alex!
I enjoy wasting time, so here's a little further analysis on how Michigan stacks up against their schedule this year:
Here's what it all looks like in a pictograph:
A slight bit of homerism, maybe??? Michigan second in special teams? We will find out over the next few months.
I do not believe all positions on the football field are equal. It all starts on the lines. A great O-Line can make a good RB awesome and an average QB good. However, a great QB can somewhat overcome a bad O-line, but not completely. Great WR's can be game changers, unless the O-line and QB are horrible and the WR never gets the ball.
So I weight the positions to see who really has the best offense, defense, and overall team.
The Offense & Defense weightings use a 7,5,3 scale. Why? Because this is my analysis! That's why! Actually, a simple 1,2,3,4 system puts too much weight on one group. A 7,5,3 system is enough to differentiate the value without skewing it too much.
Positional weighting is thus:
OL = 7, QB = 5, RB = 3, WR/TE = 3
DL = 7, DB = 5, LB = 3
Special Teams = 1
Here's the Offense in weighted rank order:
The best possible score is 234. The percent is based on team score of total possible score.
I've color coded where I see groupings/drop offs. My biggest surprise is Minnesota ranking as high as they did. Very different style of offense from Maryland, but maybe just as capable? Also, PSU will have a very good offense, just probably not elite. However, by November, they may be able to close that gap and then that game gets real interesting.
Here's the Defense:
The best possible score is 195. Yes, Michigan scored a 100%...Is that wrong? Probably not, but does Michigan really have the best 3 defensive units across their whole schedule....hmmmm.
Looks like Rutgers will be a good early season test for how well the offense can impose it's will. If that game is a struggle to score despite Rutger's inept offense (see above), suddenly the Minnesota game is more interesting.
Here's the total team rankings including special teams:
Well done Alex!!! It was important to point out Indiana is it's own tier of really bad, just not horrible.
Here's how it looks in schedule order with individual rankings:
For everyone worried about Maryland being a trap game, I would look to the Minnesota game. They could be a fairly well balanced team, and it's on the road.
As for PSU & OSU, it's interesting to see how close the D's rank, but there is a gap between their Offense ranking. That gap is based on OSU's top ranking for WE/TE where PSU ranks 4th (5th if you include Michigan).Their special teams shouldn't be a differentiating factor.
Both teams will be developing their offense over the season which means you really need to look at the coaching staffs. Who do you believe in more for offensive development? Third Base Day & Hartline or Frames Janklin and Yurich.
Season's almost hear, some of these questions will start to get answered soon.
August 23rd, 2023 at 2:59 PM ^
This is why we come to MGoBlog.
Also I can see PSU's offense performing similar to how UM did last year, relying heavily on their run game and not putting Allar in a situation where mistakes can be made.
If both teams stay healthy, that should honestly be a top 5 or 6 matchup going into that game.
August 23rd, 2023 at 3:11 PM ^
Agree but I don’t see PSU’s passing game stacking up to the ‘22 Mich passing by attack. Weaker QB WR/TE and OL. Maybe not by a lot but weaker
August 23rd, 2023 at 4:57 PM ^
relying heavily on their run game and not putting Allar in a situation where mistakes can be made
Not saying they won't, but when has PSU ever done this? They're notorious for making their QB be a scrappy gamer who by the end of the season is mangled shell of their former self
August 23rd, 2023 at 6:37 PM ^
This. Penn State at its peak under Franklin so far featured an offense with a generational RB and a mobile quarterback who threw more passes in his least-throwy season than JJ tossed last year.
If Allar is all he's hyped up to be, they're going to let him sling it.
August 24th, 2023 at 12:32 AM ^
PSU did that in 2020 --- think-run-first (well, think-RPO-first-think-power-run-second, but with 2 QBs who could both run well) even with a future 1st-round WR on the roster --- which was also the one year PSU had Kirk Ciarrocca as their OC. Franklin fired him after one year.
I thought the firing was a bit unfair. Yes, PSU had an 0-5 start that year and losing record (4-5) overall. But it was the damn COVID year, nothing was normal that year. Clifford noticeably improved as that season moved on, he looked comfortable, and even at the start, despite being 0-5 the offense averaged 430 yards/game. 0-5 was on the defense, allowing 30+ points every game, not the offense!
Anyway, the real reason I thought Ciarrocca was fired was Franklin didn't like his offensive scheme (also helped that Tom Herman got fired, so Mike Yurcich became available). Fair enough. Franklin's more comfortable with an OC who likes to use his QB arm (Moorehead did this in the 16-17 era even with Saquon freaking Barkley).
For 2023, I'd guess Allar is throwing 30-35 times a game. Is that ideal when you have both (1) a duo of legit RBs - not Saquon Barkley of course - but legit and (2) a still-young QB who has never (including HS) had a year with a completion percentage > 60%? We'll see what 2023 brings, but as a PSU fan I personally don't love that idea.
August 23rd, 2023 at 3:02 PM ^
Great summary, analysis, and graphics. Thanks for this.
Rutgers v. MSU is going to be must-watch television, à la El Assico. Can MSU's thoroughly mediocre offense score against Rutgers' surprisingly good defense? Can Rutgers' horrible offense score against MSU's decent defense?
If the over/under is anything more than 10, I'd take the under.
August 23rd, 2023 at 3:03 PM ^
A slight bit of homerism, maybe??? Michigan second in special teams? We will find out over the next few months.
JayBaugh is magic until proven otherwise.
August 23rd, 2023 at 3:05 PM ^
I remember a few years ago, when the attitude after reading the opponent previews was basically "gahhh... that's a lot of Buckeye all-stars. I don't know, maybe their starting two QBs will be out with food poisoning and we'll get a +5 turnover differential."
Times have changed.
August 23rd, 2023 at 3:12 PM ^
This 100%.
I was never a big fan of Draftageddon, but it's a shame they stopped doing it before Michigan football became elite again.
August 23rd, 2023 at 3:12 PM ^
While times have, indeed, changed my desire for OSU to be missing their top two QBs and turn the ball over to UM 5 times in the game will never go away!
August 23rd, 2023 at 3:22 PM ^
This was my summary of Rank the Enemy from 2021.
I weighted the offense and defense differently and there was not a Special Teams rank then so the numbers can not be compared to this year.
The offense max total was 220 and the defense max total was 150.
Based on this way of looking at things, Michigan was expected to go 7-5. As well all thankfully are aware, the season ended 11-1, 12-2 overall.
This was coming off 2020, whatever that was. But to your point, it wasn't very long ago we started a season thinking WTF?!?!?!?!
August 23rd, 2023 at 3:42 PM ^
There's never been an emotional ride like that one. At first we thought this team was going to be barely better than 2020, with a little (bad?) luck Harbaugh maybe keeps his job. Then we're feeling good after Washington, but suddenly concerned after Rutgers - but then we pound Wisconsin and immediately shift into "ah nice, this is a standard 9-10 win Harbuagh outfit. Good shit, Jedd." Then we win the entertaining Nebraska game and lose the heartbreaking MSU game and perceptions maybe fluctuate a bit but mostly stay in that 9-10 W range - and then "Erick All, with LOTS of running room!" And it's delirium - we're probably a 10-2 team heading to the Rose Bowl. Let's just keep it close against OSU.
And then all of a sudden we're leading them at halftime and it feels like we were unlucky. And then a few hours later, we've got bigger expectations than the freaking Rose Bowl.
ahh....amazing.
August 23rd, 2023 at 3:14 PM ^
It's awesome to get this level of free analysis! Thanks for putting this together.
We'll see how prediction and historical production of returning players jive together once guys hit the field but I like the mindset of the team to take things day by day and never overlook anyone (whether that's actually possible or not). Strange things happen in college football and our guys - especially in the trenches - are ready to do the work day by day by day.
August 23rd, 2023 at 3:18 PM ^
My analysis: A lot of red on our schedule. 7 of 12 teams are some shade of red. Eight if you squint at Bowling green.
Opponent primary color breakdown:
Red: 7
Blue: 1
Purple: 1
Gold: 1
Green: 1
Orange: 1
August 23rd, 2023 at 3:50 PM ^
Good. We've gotta take those damn Reds down every chance we get!
August 23rd, 2023 at 3:29 PM ^
My biggest surprise is Minnesota ranking as high as they did. Very different style of offense from Maryland, but maybe just as capable?
That's because the OL is more heavily weighted, which is the offensive strength of UM (NTUM) and is the liability for UM (NTUM, NTONTUM).
Had offensive skill positions been weighted equally with OL, Maryland would come out well ahead.
...not saying that heavily weighting the OL is inappropriate...just responding to your surprisement.
August 23rd, 2023 at 3:45 PM ^
This is a mostly good comment but the whole "UM NTUM NTONTUM" thing makes me realize we should lay this out:
Michigan - M, UMich, Blue.
Maryland - Md, UMd, UMary, Terps
Minnesota - Mn, Minny, UMinny, Gophers, Rowers
August 23rd, 2023 at 4:39 PM ^
The surprise is how Minnesota's units all rate as average without a significant outlier to the good or bad. That is the type of team that could come together and have a good season (especially in the West). Unfortunately their schedule is not easy getting Michigan, OSU & MSU as cross over games and having to play at UNC. If they had a more balanced schedule against the East, their West schedule was pretty good with Nebraska, Illinois, & Wisconsin all being at home.
Maryland has pretty good skill position players on offense, but the weak O-line could be the achilles heal all year because it is really weak. It could get exacerbated if their defense struggles to get teams off the field due to the D-line being weak as well.
That is why I am surprised about the talk surrounding Maryland being a contender in a tough East division but Minnesota not getting much talk about being a potentially difficult game.
August 24th, 2023 at 2:47 PM ^
Yeah Minnesota is not going to monotonously drive UM in the trenches or stop UM in the trenches despite a being solid B10 west team. OSU with it's 5*s struggles with that - screw Minnesota doing it.
Georgia can. A few others may.
The way to beat UM with inferior talent is splash plays which Maryland can do much better than Minnesota. See last year in AA.
Maryland doesn't have a Randy Moss type but please the WR position is important if you have NFL talent to offset other parts of your team that are weaker. Ask peak FSU about Torry Holt @ NC State.
August 23rd, 2023 at 3:46 PM ^
To be fair, the only position group I feel like he missed on was DL, which will need some proving on the edges and may be behind OSU on paper.
There are arguments to be made about LBs, OL, and even QB, but it's really about is UM #1 or #2?
August 23rd, 2023 at 3:58 PM ^
Match-up's matter, and once again favor us
August 24th, 2023 at 10:00 AM ^
I'm curious what your argument is for DL?
Our EDGEs need proving but Harrell and Stewart were both starters last year and McGregor and Moore showed flashes.
Jenkins and Graham are superstars. Grant and Benny are great backups.
OSU has as big, or bigger, question marks at DT. Meanwhile, JTT and Sawyer are talented but unproven.
August 23rd, 2023 at 3:57 PM ^
The away Happy Valley game will be a real test, possibly more so than having OSU at the Big House!!
August 23rd, 2023 at 4:50 PM ^
Great work, True Blue.
August 23rd, 2023 at 5:09 PM ^
Sooo does Draftageddon run this week or next?
August 23rd, 2023 at 6:00 PM ^
Not afraid of Minnesota. PJ does a great job with their WRs but their defense won’t be good enough to keep up and though their OL is huge and loves to mash, Michigan rarely has a problem with that because they do it better.
Maryland I think will continue to be a thorn but never quite good enough. Penn State is strange. If it were home I think Michigan wins handily. I just don’t believe in them and think the hype is a little excessive. But playing @PSU sucks.
August 23rd, 2023 at 8:11 PM ^
This is excellent work. I'd love to see the histograms for last year.
August 23rd, 2023 at 9:08 PM ^
I'll see what I can do looking up last years posts. My boss really isn't going to be happy this week.
August 23rd, 2023 at 8:24 PM ^
Kudos to you, OP. Turning football into spreadsheets is what we do here!