Analysis of first half redzone attempts versus Air Force
I’m feeling super hermit crabby today and I’m too impatient to wait for Brian’s UFR so I decided to use WD’s highlights (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7xNoJwnGkVk) to break down where the redzone drives went wrong. Mods feel free to move this to the Diary section or delete it if it is stepping too hard on Brian’s toes, whatever you see fit. Also, I set out to do the whole game but got too tired/frustrated and only did the first half. If the response is positive I’ll do the second half tonight.
I don’t want to put the tl;dr here because I fear nobody will actually read the rest and blow this off as a hot take (and I’m acknowledging right now the out huuuuge sample size asterisk), but, here it is:
- The play-calling was very solid except for maybe one or two exceptions. Specifically, I thought the calls were good on 7.5/9 plays.
- Perry is a fantastic route runner and got open on almost every play.
- The pass protection was as bad as they looked live. Air Force called some great disguised blitzes that will probably make Don Brown nod in respect during film sessions, and our OL was devastated even though we had equal or sometimes more blockers than rushers on every play.
- We left a TE and RB on pass pro on 4/6 throws, but they still got pressure on 2 of those plays. Woof.
- The run blocking on the McDoom sweep cost us a TD.
- Speight was terrible. Yes, this is a teensy tiny sample size. Yes, the OL was relatively more terrible. But watching it live, I thought that the OL was so bad that it gave Speight no chance to make any plays. And it almost was. But on 6 pass plays, he missed a huge pass or read on 4/5 throws, and had 1 inexcusable fumble that almost cost us 3 points.
Redzone #1 (11:40 in the 1st quarter)
1st & 10 @ the 18: Air Force only rushes 4—and never shows blitz—but we leave Gentry and Isaac in for pass pro (woof). Protection is thankfully great given it’s 7v4. Perry runs a great sloping out route that shreds their zone D, gets open by a couple steps, but Speight misses the somewhat lengthy throw wide.
-1 Speight: missed throw
2nd & 10 @ the 18: Air Force has 7 in the box, we have 6 blockers. Shotgun inside hand-off to Higdon, Mckeon pulls to block inside (which looks by design), leaving an unblocked edge DE who makes the tackle after a 1-yard gain.
-1 Speight or coaching: needed to audible out of that run call
3rd & 9 @ the 17: We have 5 wide w/ 5 blockers. Air Force shows 6 rushers but drops the D tackle and one LB into underneath coverage after only mini rushes. This leaves Bredneson blocking air as the edge LB gets a free rush onto Speight from the blind side, hitting Speight as he throws. Speight misses a pretty well-covered Perry too high by a half-foot on a go route in the end zone.
-1 OL: blitz pick-up
Summary:
Air Force won the RPS battle on each play, and shredded our OL on 2/3 plays. The first down route by Perry was still excellent and Speight flat missed him, which was a total drive-changer. The second down play was never going to work because it left DE unblocked, which was clear before the snap, so either Speight or the press-box needed to audible there. The third down play call was fine—if Speight has more time to throw that ball better, I think Perry can make that catch even though it was covered well. Air Force just had a great disguised blitz called and our OL didn’t pick it up.
Play-calling: 2/3
Redzone #2 (12:40 in the 2st quarter)
1st & 10 @ the 9: Air Force has 7 in the box. We run-fake out of the gun to Higdon and leave in Gentry and Higdon to block. Air Force brings only 6 (but has 1 LB taken out by play fake/covering Higdon). However, Ulizio and Gentry both block the DE, leaving an unblocked rusher who gets into Speight’s face in a hurry. Speight sails a fade to totally covered Crawford out the back of the endzone. Speight is locked into Crawford the whole way, and while he doesn’t have any time to get through his progression given the free rusher, he has Tarik Black 1-on-1 on the opposite side of the field. If Speight reads this pre-snap, it’s an easy TD as Black easily gets inside leverage on his slant route.
-0.5 Speight: missed read
-1 OL: blitz pick-up
2nd & 10 @ the 9: McDoom sweep that gets blown up for no gain. This should have been a TD. We have 3 blockers for the 3 edge Air Force defenders who can possibly make this tackle. Bunting completely blows it here by not identifying who he is supposed to block as he inexplicably doubles the corner that McKeon is easily blocking, leaving Cole in no-man’s land to either fight a losing battle to block Bunting’s LB or get out to the safety. Cole chooses the safety (still not his fault, he couldn’t have made the block), leaving the LB free to get the stop for no gain. Very frustrating.
-1 Bunting run block
3rd & 10 @ the 9: Michigan is in the gun with Isaac. Air Force initially shows 5 rushers but then brings the corner and LB from the strong side late, dropping the weakside LB into coverage to make it 6v6. But our OL gets absolutely crushed. Cole blocks nobody as he was expecting the weakside LB blitz. Onwenu can’t decide which of 3 rushers to block and ultimately doesn’t block anyone. Speight does an incredible job of rolling out and getting free. Unfortunately, he is locked on Crawford because he has Perry breaking wiiiiiiiiiiiiiide open on a devastatingly beautiful post route in the back corner of the endzone and there is nobody even close to him. Easy, easy, easy TD if he sees him. Instead, he can’t decide between running or throwing to a completely covered Crawford and chooses to patty cake pass it for an incompletion.
-1 Speight: missed read
-1 OL: blitz pick-up
Summary:
Each of these plays could have been TDs if our guys make plays. On the first, Speight missed a read on having Black with 1-on-1 who runs a great route to get separation inside. On the second, Bunting makes a terrible mental mistake and misses his blocking assignment, turning a probably TD into no gain. On the third, Speight makes a fantastic play to roll out of pressure but doesn’t keep his eyes downfield and misses Perry, who ran a beautiful route to get utterly wide open. This is even less excusable because Perry is clearly the #1 WR given that Speight is looking at him before the pocket collapses.
On both pass plays, the Air Force blitzes were as impressively designed as the blocking was atrocious. Still, the TDs were there for the taking.
Play-calling: 2.5/3
Not technically redzone but close enough #3 (2:12 in the 2nd quarter)
1st & 10 @ the 24: I’m running out of steam and getting more frustrated. Perry is wide open on yet another great corner route which would have gone for ~11 yards in the air and, with a decent throw, he had enough separation to likely get in the endzone. Air Force has 7 in the box, but the corner on Perry shows blitz well before the snap, ends up being the only rusher as they send 5. We again leave Gentry and Isaac in for protection, and finally pick it up. Speight is looking towards the left at either Crawford or Perry (I’m praying it’s Crawford), and doesn’t see that Perry is wide wide wide wide open, and holds onto the ball until the pocket collapses and he scrambles out of bounds (rather than throw the ball away) for a loss of 4 yards that the ref bafflingly marks as only a loss of 1.
-1 Speight: missed read
2nd & 14 11 @ the 25: Pass out of the gun as we leave Eubanks and Isaac in again for pass pro. Air Force threatens 7 but only sends 6 (with one guy neutralized b/c he’s playing man on Isaac who doesn’t run a route), so it’s 6v7. Ulizio doesn’t identify whom to block and misses his blitzing LB assignment. The LB has a free run at Speight for the sack. Speight doesn’t have time for for the play to develop, which showed promise, as Crawford was breaking free down the middle for a solid chunk play, and Perry also looked like he was again going to get open. As Speight is getting sacked, he makes the most inexcusable decision of the game of trying to throw it away while going to the ground. His arm hits Ulizio as he’s doing this and he fumbles. The ball miraculously falls in front of Eubanks who makes a heady play to snag it, but after losing 3 additional yards.
-1 OL: blitz pick-up
-1 Speight: terrible fumble
3rd & 21 @ the 35: Isaac draw play for 4 yards to make the FG easier. Hard to fault the play call given the poor play from the OL and Speight up to that point. Also lucky for Ace that the ref missed those 3 yards from Speight’s scramble to make it a 49 yarder rather than 52 yarder (because we all know MVP Wild Thin’ Quinn Nordin woulda knocked that baby in from 60.)
Summary:
Speight again missed a wide-open Perry for a bare minimum 11 yarder that easily could have scored. He followed that up with his worst basic mental error by not taking the sack and almost costing us 3 points. Pass pro finally picked up a disguised blitz, only to follow it up with the worst blow of the game on a 6v7 rush as Ulizio failed to identiy his assignment.
Play-calling: 3/3
September 17th, 2017 at 9:37 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 9:48 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 10:06 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 10:42 PM ^
September 18th, 2017 at 12:03 AM ^
September 18th, 2017 at 12:20 AM ^
September 18th, 2017 at 12:41 PM ^
If I were you I wouldn't question this guy's knowledge of the redbone.
September 18th, 2017 at 6:35 AM ^
Spring game? That's the only time we've seen him get "meaningful" snaps since he arrived.
And he damn near had 3 interceptions, including one (which he did throw) returned for a touchdown.
September 17th, 2017 at 9:50 PM ^
Speight was bad but I still trust the coaching staff that the back-ups are worse.
However, that being said, Speight in the redzone did not make any plays that a back-up couldn't, and maybe someone else could do better.
Either way, the OL and Speight are the clear weak links on the offense--not the play calling or wr's getting open as I thought prior to my rewatch. Since there aren't any better players ready to replace them, it is what it is and hopefully things improve.
September 17th, 2017 at 10:00 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 10:17 PM ^
on those 3 drives. So no, a different qb probably could not have done worse.
However, I will agree with you that Speight is the only qb that could have gotten them into the redzone. AJDrain's diary showed that, outside the redzone, Speight had a good game. Will be very interested to see Brian's take in the UFR on what changed going into the redzone.
I'm also rethinking that Perry pass and realizing you're right, it's a very difficult throw to make, but disagreeing that it's thaaaaaaaat difficult. A more mobile qb would have a much easier time.
September 17th, 2017 at 11:03 PM ^
September 18th, 2017 at 12:11 AM ^
September 18th, 2017 at 12:23 AM ^
September 18th, 2017 at 3:10 AM ^
September 18th, 2017 at 6:42 AM ^
Brady sat behind Brian Griese, a much more experienced player who quarterbacked Michigan to a 12-0 season. Not sure what was bad about that.
Brady was then the undisputed #1 QB in 1998, and co-#1 for the first half of 1999 before taking it over for good the second half. The legend of him being "forgotten and on the bench" is a bit overstated.
September 18th, 2017 at 12:01 PM ^
September 18th, 2017 at 1:21 PM ^
September 18th, 2017 at 3:13 PM ^
He didn't sit behind him. They were co-#1 QBs for half a season.
It's remarkable to me how many Michigan fans don't even remember what went down.
September 18th, 2017 at 9:20 AM ^
September 18th, 2017 at 12:42 AM ^
that fumble was a benchable offense, imo. got lucky as hell that eubanks recovered it. going into that game at 6-6 would have been a total momentum kiler.
September 17th, 2017 at 11:14 PM ^
September 18th, 2017 at 5:29 AM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 10:22 PM ^
is going to be as good as you and others think he'll be because of all that film you've seen on him running away from pressure or cooly waiting until oncoming rushers are about to hit him before he throws a dart to a wide open Perry for a score from the red zone.
If and when this happens, you are going to be the first poster I upvote for your brilliant foresight and vision while the rest of us were wearing reading glasses and missing all the sure signs of this insightful personnel change.
I get the argument that Speight has been mediocre and made mistakes and that for whatever reason he isn't making enough plays to satisfy this fan base.
But you don't make a drastic personnel change starting a freshman for a two-year starter until you absolutely are forced to. And you don't do it for the first conference game of the year on the road. That you only do because of injury necessity and not to shake things up.
I seriously don't get this argument.
And btw, today I watched the Carolina Panthers repeatedly fail to score from the red zone and let the Buffalo Bills who ran 12 first half plays for 39 yards nearly win the game in the final seconds because the former NFL MVP couldn't convert a first and goal from the 2 yard line with less than 3 minutes left to exend their 6-3 lead. Cam Newton missed two wide open receivers in the endzone during this game, including one to Dylan McCafferty's brother. And no one is calling for Newton's head and replacing him with the backup. In fact, he got knocked in the head and was cleared to come back in the game late instead of inserting Derek Anderson. Of course, in the NFL victory is alll that matters not whether you look great making it happen.
September 17th, 2017 at 8:54 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 8:54 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 9:05 PM ^
I really thought Speight would be ascending after Florida. I am not giving up but I am really starting to doubt Drevno. Of all the coaches that came with Harbaugh, I thought he would have the most beneficial impact. Not wishing him gone but Drevno has had the least impactful presence among all coaches since 2015. I like Frey and think he did a lot with less talent at Indiana and should be given the Oline in total. I do think think Speight's development has been somewhat stunted by our Oline play. Oline often looks confused. Does that have something to do with the Drevno/Frey coach combo of Oline development. I have a feeling the stodgy play calling and development has to do with Fisch leaving and Drevno taking a bigger role. Rosen at UCLA looks much improved from last year as does their offense. I had a feeling Harbaugh brought Pep in to take over for Drevno anticipating Drevno would get an HC job at end of year.
If what is written by the OP is accurate regarding Speight, then I may have been wrong all along about Speight. I really thought this was going to be a year where he was going to elevevate everyone around him due to his 2nd year in system. Maybe the switch gets flipped and all our hand wringing is for naught.
Not giving up, and have to believe that he is our best option. I don't like bashing players and try to reserve my criticisim if there is some on those professionals who are paid to maximize and develop talent.
September 17th, 2017 at 9:29 PM ^
Agree with this post 100%. Drevno seems to be the weakest link of the Harbaugh era and we can only hope he lands a HC job this summer so we can hire someone who specializes in play calling and just let Frey take over the line. Harbaugh has proven to be a pretty good evaluator of coaching talent when he is doing more of an organic search to find a coach and less so out of loyalty from previous stops. Drevno is a hold over from Harbaugh's first job and while I think he is an effective coach at certain levels, I don't think he is a natural play caller.
With that said, the jury is still out on Pep Hamlton. The issues with Speight could be because Hamilton is implementing some new schemes that Speight is just having a tough time grasping. That and the issues with trusting the new receiving core I think was underestimated by the fan base. Hopefully it's one of these things where Speight will slowly progress throughout the season as he feels more comfortable with the new coaching and new receivers.
In any case - I am actually quite surprised how mellow Harbaugh is about all of this. I realize a lot of it is for show and doesn't want outside criticism, but to see him blatantly brush off questions about offensive performance in press conferences makes me feel a little bit better about the trajectory of the team. If he feels good about where the team is than that is good enough for me until they start losing.
September 17th, 2017 at 10:01 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 9:12 PM ^
So kudos...
I think you are being slighly hard on Speight.
Bad throws fine and I agree. I think it's tough to ding a guy who's getting immediate pressure in his face for not finding the open man.
There's throwing windows, Perry may be open, but you aren't seeing the Safety or LB in front.
And you're expecting him to see all the wr's at the same time with a guy in his face. Not possible.
My takeaway is that Perry should be the #1 option/receiver and not Crawford.
September 17th, 2017 at 9:18 PM ^
I'm very confident that, on the plays I dinged Speight, the throwing windows were wide open. I was very cognizent of that while watching. The director had a wide angle so the safeties are in clear view on the screen.
2/3 missed reads I dinged Speight for very clearly had Perry as the intended WR, as he looked his way from the very beginning of the play.
The only two plays that are iffy in terms of Speight's culpability:
-the scramble where Perry is wide open in the corner of the endzone, because Speight was chugging and just didn't look upfield. It's a tough play but one I think he should make.
-the Black mismatch on the blitz. The blitz was coming before the snap, and Speight should see that and adjust his read accordingly. Again, a tough thing to do, but one that a player who is starting because he has a solid grasp of the offense should make.
September 17th, 2017 at 9:13 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 9:21 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 9:48 PM ^
his first read was well covered on only 1 of my dings--and on that play I will argue that the primary receiver should have changed pre-snap based on the blitz show that air force brought. Perry was the clear 1st read on the rest of those plays. Michigan knew that Air Force was going to be blitzing and designed quick, easy reads that got open and Speight didn't throw. You can argue about the Perry miss on the roll out (Perry was the 1st read and was wide open), but I'm not buying.
Not saying my analysis is bulletproof, but I don't think I was being overly harsh and would encourage you to rewatch the plays and offer your rebuttal on any specific ones.
September 17th, 2017 at 10:05 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 10:21 PM ^
I graded based on whether or not the play call got a route open. If you get a route open and have enough blockers for their rushers, that's a good play call. Now, should Harbaugh and Co realized that their pass pro was so bad that it didn't matter if they had 7 blockers for 4-6 rushers and was still getting blown up so not thrown? Sure. But, even on run plays, the blocking was terrible and didn't execute. So, it's a lose-lose situation.
You have to expect your qb to make those reads, imo.
now, could the plays have been quicker hitters? I think everyone would agree that would have been better.
So, overall, the playcalls got players open with enough blockers, but the players didn't execute. Not going to blame playcalling as much as execution.
September 17th, 2017 at 10:46 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 10:26 PM ^
that is well meaning, but a little weird.
i guess i'll focus on the well meaning side of it.
September 17th, 2017 at 10:50 PM ^
that's getting pretty strange
September 17th, 2017 at 9:51 PM ^
Help - my posts,short and long, don't appear most of the time. I have no clue why...anyone have the same experience.
September 17th, 2017 at 11:19 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 11:36 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 9:49 PM ^
Good write-up. Thanks
September 17th, 2017 at 9:49 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 9:56 PM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 10:48 PM ^
September 18th, 2017 at 6:57 AM ^
September 17th, 2017 at 10:01 PM ^