5-7 in 2018?

Submitted by Decatur Jack on

I was talking with a friend I trust on things related to Michigan football and he laid out what I thought was a fairly convincing scenario in which we go 5-7 this year, with losses to ND, Nebraska, Maryland, Wisconsin, MSU, Penn State, and OSU.

The crux of his argument boils down to the OL failing to develop significantly (they need to be a lot better), Shea is not ruled eligible and Peters continues his performance from the South Carolina game. An opening loss to Notre Dame makes the mgocommunity restless and there are calls for McCaffrey, who is pushed into the starting job and doesn't show to be demonstrably better than Peters. Our inability to pass protect puts all of our QBs in a bad spot, and we still can't run the ball when we need to. Wide receivers continue to drop key passes on third downs, failing to develop one iota under Pep/McElwain. We defense our way to 5 wins but against tougher teams we stumble, and we go 0-3 against the rivals.

I wanted to throw this up to the mgoboard and see what you all think, if this is just an outlier position or if it sounds realistic or plausible.

MGoBoard

UMAmaizinBlue

February 16th, 2018 at 3:36 PM ^

To be a) predicting 2018 records and b) figuring out how that's gonna play out.

Actually, let me find an algorithm that'll bring up all these possibilities for you. I use it for my NCAA bracket every year. 

Joined: 09/23/2009

MGoPoints: 36258

gremlin

February 16th, 2018 at 3:42 PM ^

This post and many others during, and since, this past 2017 season remind me of how markets behave.  People sell when the market is down and buy when the market is hot, when they should be doing exactly the opposite.  I am sure there are many behavioral studies to cite, but I just thought I'd add my two cents of sense.  

Chill out, everybody.  I'm buying the low and will be selling the high when I watch us win the Natty in '18.  

Joined: 01/13/2009

MGoPoints: 624

HateSparty

February 16th, 2018 at 3:43 PM ^

What could change this obviously logical scenario is that all teams they play are not better than Michigan, the other teams’ schemes fail and Michigan goes undefeated on the road. I think our scenarios are comparably possible.

Joined: 12/17/2014

MGoPoints: 27141

bronxblue

February 16th, 2018 at 3:46 PM ^

You know, you can just donate your MGoPoints to a nice charity and not just waste them here.

Also, if your friend's arguments were really as basic as you laid them out here, you might want to get a friend who actually follows football.  That could be part of your issue.

Joined: 11/22/2008

MGoPoints: 171784

Monocle Smile

February 16th, 2018 at 3:50 PM ^

You know, there's "passionate about Michigan sports" and there's "I have zero control over my emotions and spend no time thinking before acting."

Be a fucking adult.

Joined: 09/17/2009

MGoPoints: 23075

Red is Blue

February 16th, 2018 at 4:01 PM ^

Is your friend Brian?

 

In summary:

 

OL doesn't develop

Peters continues on / McCaffrey is no better / Patterson not eligible

Our inability to pass protect puts all of our qbs in a bad spot

We still can't run the ball when we need to 

WR continues to drop passes

 

In essense, these boil down to things are pretty much the same a last year.  Yet last year, we went 8-4 regular season.  Where do the exactly 3 losses come from?  

Further, it seems highly likely that we get improvement from the WR position and Peters/McCafferey 2018 is > Peters/JOK 2017.  We've got the same interior OL, at worst the same RT.  So the growth of those 4 would have to be less than the fall off from Cole to his replacment.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Joined: 05/13/2010

MGoPoints: 23889

Decatur Jack

February 16th, 2018 at 4:05 PM ^

Strangely enough, I'm okay with that. That's the reason why downvoting exists.

I've posted on this thread multiple times, giving people multiple opportunities to negbang me. I wanted to know if this was an outlier position or not. I think I'm getting my answer.

In a way, I feel better that people aren't as down in the dumps as I am. I'll admit now that I do feel a little silly for letting my bud so easily convince me we were fucked this season. I'll take the hits for that, even if it means a trip to Bolivia. But I don't regret posting this thread. It might seem dumb to a lot of you, but after the last few weeks the state of the program doesn't feel all that great. And hell, we need a negbang once in a while.

Joined: 09/20/2011

MGoPoints: 9488